It's bad out there - Printable Version
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RE: It's bad out there - M T - 12-11-2020
(12-11-2020, 10:10 PM)Goose Wrote: As bad as things are in LA County case-wise, their ICU situation (4.35 available ICU beds/100K people) is better than both San Mateo(3.77) and Santa Clara(1.81). One wonders if ICU beds is a good metric by itself. If Reff is significantly above 1, as BC has pointed out you will eventually exceed any limit you set. Why wait? Crush the curve now before you hit the stops.
That statistic ICU Beds/100K doesn't take into account the true population filling those beds. If Stanford hospital is taking some patients from (say) Tuolumne County, using SCC's population for the divisor isn't correct. (That doesn't make the situation any less dire.)
The numbers are squishy. SCC had 9.5% more staffed ICU beds today than 3 days earlier, with only 3 more COVID ICU patients, but the problem was the 36 more non-COVID patients in the ICU. The ICU % available staffed beds is being (appropriately) adjusted by the administrators according to the load.
In SCC, 0.00482% (93) of the county's population are COVID patients in the ICU.
In LAC, 0.00898% (843) of the population of L.A.County (excluding Pasadena & Long Beach) are COVID patients in the ICU.
The brakes haven't yet helped. SCC R is about 1.6 today. LA County is 1.55. California has the highest R among the states at 1.53.
RE: It's bad out there - Maple Leaf - 12-12-2020
Things are not going in the right direction in the Central Valley, where health care availability has always been insufficient.
Updated 12/11/20, 12:12 pm: The California Department of Public Health has released the latest ICU capacities across Central California:
[*]Fresno County: 8 open beds
[*]Kings County: 1 open beds
[*]Madera County: 7 open bed
[*]Merced County: 8 opens beds
[*]Mariposa County: Does not have Intensive Care Unit
[*]Tulare County: 7 open beds
The San Joaquin Valley has the least available space of any region in California. On Friday, the region's capacity dropped to 4.5%, according to the state.
RE: It's bad out there - Goose - 12-12-2020
(12-11-2020, 11:36 PM)M T Wrote: That statistic ICU Beds/100K doesn't take into account the true population filling those beds. If Stanford hospital is taking some patients from (say) Tuolumne County, using SCC's population for the divisor isn't correct. (That doesn't make the situation any less dire.)
True. San Mateo County breaks out the "out of county" patients moved by State of California actions, FWIW.
Quote:The numbers are squishy. SCC had 9.5% more staffed ICU beds today than 3 days earlier, with only 3 more COVID ICU patients, but the problem was the 36 more non-COVID patients in the ICU. The ICU % available staffed beds is being (appropriately) adjusted by the administrators according to the load.
In SCC, 0.00482% (93) of the county's population are COVID patients in the ICU.
In LAC, 0.00898% (843) of the population of L.A.County (excluding Pasadena & Long Beach) are COVID patients in the ICU.
This gets back to the "Which set of numbers" issue. The county websites seem to modulate their total ICU beds dynamically based on need, while the State uses a different reference. Using the data from
https://public.tableau.com/views/COVID-19HospitalsDashboard/Hospitals?:embed=y&:showVizHome=no
which is the link from the State website shows SCC with 1.8 beds available per 100K while LA County iw 4.38 (using the population figures you cited).
I can only assume that these are the numbers the state is looking at, which might account for the lack of panic about LA County even though the rest of us are looking at it like it is a disaster in the making.
Quote:The brakes haven't yet helped. SCC R is about 1.6 today. LA County is 1.55. California has the highest R among the states at 1.53.
Sadly, not yet. There is a slight downturn in the recent curve, but that may just be the periodic variation we see in the previous month's data. Even if it is going down a bit, it is still well above 1 and would have to fall off a cliff to help much in the next few weeks.
RE: It's bad out there - M T - 12-12-2020
(12-12-2020, 09:59 AM)Goose Wrote:That slight downturn for the most recent data has been there each time I have looked. I think they must be using the most recent, and incomplete, data, resulting in that downward curve at the far right.Quote:The brakes haven't yet helped. SCC R is about 1.6 today. LA County is 1.55. California has the highest R among the states at 1.53.
Sadly, not yet. There is a slight downturn in the recent curve, but that may just be the periodic variation we see in the previous month's data. Even if it is going down a bit, it is still well above 1 and would have to fall off a cliff to help much in the next few weeks.
RE: It's bad out there - Goose - 12-12-2020
(12-12-2020, 12:02 PM)M T Wrote:You are undoubtedly correct, especially since it is present in all counties. Not probable that would be universally so.(12-12-2020, 09:59 AM)Goose Wrote:That slight downturn for the most recent data has been there each time I have looked. I think they must be using the most recent, and incomplete, data, resulting in that downward curve at the far right.Quote:The brakes haven't yet helped. SCC R is about 1.6 today. LA County is 1.55. California has the highest R among the states at 1.53.
Sadly, not yet. There is a slight downturn in the recent curve, but that may just be the periodic variation we see in the previous month's data. Even if it is going down a bit, it is still well above 1 and would have to fall off a cliff to help much in the next few weeks.
RE: It's bad out there - BostonCard - 12-12-2020
Mississippi is out of ICU beds.
[tweet]https://twitter.com/pourmecoffee/status/1337924057732317186?s=21[/tweet]
At this point you have to triage. Is the sickest patient waiting for an ICU bed sicker than the least sick patient currently in the ICU.
BC
RE: It's bad out there - Goose - 12-13-2020
Things are bad out there almost everywhere.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-13/germany-to-enter-hard-lockdown-on-wednesday-as-infections-swell?utm_campaign=news&utm_medium=bd&utm_source=applenews
It would appear that even Germans can get a bit testy in these times. Nobody seems to really have a "good" way to coexist with COVID-19 it seems. Let's hope the vaccines distribution goes at least OK, as it is clearly the only way forward.
RE: It's bad out there - BostonCard - 12-13-2020
[tweet]https://twitter.com/popehat/status/1338152121225515010?s=21[/tweet]
Popehat is a Stanford guy (lawyer in the LA area).
BC
RE: It's bad out there - chrisk - 12-13-2020
Santa Clara County is expected to report over 2000 new cases today, about 10 times the number of a couple months ago.
Edit
At 2pm, the actual number posted was 2055, with 87 new hospitalizations and 7 deaths.
RE: It's bad out there - allrightynow - 12-14-2020
(12-13-2020, 12:27 PM)chrisk Wrote: Santa Clara County is expected to report over 2000 new cases today, about 10 times the number of a couple months ago.
Edit
At 2pm, the actual number posted was 2055, with 87 new hospitalizations and 7 deaths.
Actually the 7 deaths are what was reported on Friday. SCC doesn't update deaths over the weekend and so I believe the Snapshot has a bug/feature where Sat&Sun "new" deaths remains whatever the value was on Fri.
But yeah, 2000+ new cases in a day, pretty crazy...
RE: It's bad out there - Hurlburt88 - 12-14-2020
I saw on the Johns Hopkins site that a few days ago Turkey reported 825k cases in one day. brobdingnagian spike is even noticeable on the global numbers. Does anyone have any idea what is going on there?
RE: It's bad out there - BostonCard - 12-14-2020
It must have represented a backlog of reported cases or a change in methodology. Turkey has been reporting 30,000 cases a day for a while:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/turkey/
BC
RE: It's bad out there - cctop - 12-14-2020
(12-13-2020, 11:18 AM)BostonCard Wrote: [tweet]
Popehat is a Stanford guy (lawyer in the LA area).
Popehat (Ken White) is also a former Federal prosecutor who has a great podcast analyzing Trump's legal issues.
It's the only podcast I look forward to new episodes. I'd recommend it to everyone:
https://www.kcrw.com/news/shows/lrc-presents-all-the-presidents-lawyers
(Gonna self-Terry-rule myself here. The podcast only occasionally touches on Covid issues.)
RE: It's bad out there - teejers1 - 12-14-2020
(12-14-2020, 10:27 AM)cctop Wrote:(12-13-2020, 11:18 AM)BostonCard Wrote: [tweet]
Popehat is a Stanford guy (lawyer in the LA area).
Popehat (Ken White) is also a former Federal prosecutor who has a great podcast analyzing Trump's legal issues.
It's the only podcast I look forward to new episodes. I'd recommend it to everyone:
https://www.kcrw.com/news/shows/lrc-presents-all-the-presidents-lawyers
(Gonna self-Terry-rule myself here. The podcast only occasionally touches on Covid issues.)
It is bad out there. And not just in positive cases and hospital strains. Mercury News finally ran a front page story on the thousands upon thousands of people descending on Food Banks in Silicon Valley because they can no longer provide for their families. Very, very sad.
RE: It's bad out there - BostonCard - 12-14-2020
(12-14-2020, 01:10 PM)teejers1 Wrote: It is bad out there. And not just in positive cases and hospital strains. Mercury News finally ran a front page story on the thousands upon thousands of people descending on Food Banks in Silicon Valley because they can no longer provide for their families. Very, very sad.
Indeed it is. A good thread here:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/yashar/status/1331462123294101504?s=20[/tweet]
BC
RE: It's bad out there - Snorlax94 - 12-15-2020
![[Image: JCWU5R1.jpeg]](https://i.imgur.com/JCWU5R1.jpeg)
https://i.imgur.com/JCWU5R1.jpeg
Holy cow 24 deaths today in SCC! Yes I know the deaths can be reported in spurts but 24 in one day — and the day is not yet over.
I wonder if the dead people’s families will feel like their Trick or Treating, youth sports tournaments and Thanksgiving get-togethers were worth it.
When I saw today’s stat, that has finally pushed me to the final level of SIP for my household — no entering any buildings for anything, not even groceries or to step inside briefly for takeout. Will just do curbside pickup for groceries (and shipments) for at least a few weeks. Will still take daily walks, enjoy the backyard, socialize with friends and family on Zoom.
RE: It's bad out there - Griffins78 - 12-15-2020
It seems as though people around our neighborhood in San Mateo have relaxed their level of precaution and more people are not wearing masks.
RE: It's bad out there - M T - 12-15-2020
(12-15-2020, 04:49 PM)Snorlax94 Wrote:
https://i.imgur.com/JCWU5R1.jpeg
Holy cow 24 deaths today in SCC! Yes I know the deaths can be reported in spurts but 24 in one day — and the day is not yet over.
I wonder if the dead people’s families will feel like their Trick or Treating, youth sports tournaments and Thanksgiving get-togethers were worth it.
When I saw today’s stat, that has finally pushed me to the final level of SIP for my household — no entering any buildings for anything, not even groceries or to step inside briefly for takeout. Will just do curbside pickup for groceries (and shipments) for at least a few weeks. Will still take daily walks, enjoy the backyard, socialize with friends and family on Zoom.
I doubt that many of the 24 deaths are attributable to people who had families around them. I would expect more than half were alone & scared in their LTCF, where COVID was brought in by the health care workers. Maybe the HCW got it from their kid, who picked it up from a friend, who got it from their father, who ate lunch at a street vendor, who ....
I'm not trying to complain about the HCW, but pointing out that deaths may be several steps removed from the careless behavior.
In my own family, the one with COVID right now, got a test a week ago (ie, Tuesday) but didn't quarantine until the positive verdict on Friday, thus endangering two people in her house & her co-workers. She said "I just thought I had a cold". (She is turning the corner today it appears. Yeah! Work tells her she should be back at work on Friday. One in her family has tested negative at work; the other is also symptom free.)
SCC indicated that about 10% of all cases go into the hospital, and more than 1/3 of those go into the ICU. So, for the 1118 newly infected, we should expect that around 37 will go into the ICU. [Edit: I originally had the expected outcome of those 37 incorrect.]
To be honest, I don't agree with California's policy which seems to be to vaccinate the health workers before the people in LTCF. If the ICUs weren't full and deaths weren't so many, I could see the logic. But delaying the inoculation of those that are most likely to go into the ICU is going to prolong the time that the ICUs are full and to increase the death toll. On the other hand, if the HCWs don't have COVID, it won't spread to the LTCF residents. However, I know I am biased. While I have 4 MD relatives (2 on hospital staff), I have one family member in a skilled nursing facility, where I see the hospital in the community say that the hospital staff are getting their shots today while SNF & LTCF residents will have to wait to next week.
P.S. Looking for a last minute Christmas gift? Suggestions: Pulse oximeter & IR thermometer (I've given out 2 pairs to relatives); HEPA filter units (I've given out 4 and offered another). The relative who has COVID got the air purifier more than a month ago; I can't say that it necessarily helped prevent her household from getting it so far, but I know I tried.
P.P.S. Here's a worthy program by California: Hotel rooms for healthcare workers so they don't take COVID home (nor do they bring it to work from family members). I know that was a concern of my MD relatives. Whether an HCW takes this opportunity or not, the risk is real and the burden is heavy.
RE: It's bad out there - M T - 12-15-2020
[Oops.. posted last post twice]
RE: It's bad out there - teejers1 - 12-15-2020
(12-15-2020, 04:49 PM)Snorlax94 Wrote: Holy cow 24 deaths today in SCC! Yes I know the deaths can be reported in spurts but 24 in one day — and the day is not yet over.
I wonder if the dead people’s families will feel like their Trick or Treating, youth sports tournaments and Thanksgiving get-togethers were worth it.
When I saw today’s stat, that has finally pushed me to the final level of SIP for my household — no entering any buildings for anything, not even groceries or to step inside briefly for takeout. Will just do curbside pickup for groceries (and shipments) for at least a few weeks. Will still take daily walks, enjoy the backyard, socialize with friends and family on Zoom.
C'mon now. You have no freaking idea what you're talking about with that sentence. Just gratuitous shots at people who supposedly are not living the shut-in life you have chosen. And good luck with that - sounds like it won't be an issue for you in any way, shape or form. Others may not enjoy that same luxury.
You really should check out the LTCF board to give you some perspective (it gets updated on Wednesdays). In just 3 days in late November (the 24th, 27th, and 29th) 200 LTCF hospitalizations were reported. I wonder how many of them comprise the 24 you're speculating on - or if any of them were infected by trick or treaters or sports tournaments. . .