CFP 2021 - Printable Version
+- The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board)
+-- Forum: C-House! (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-4.html)
+--- Forum: The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-5.html)
+--- Thread: CFP 2021 (/thread-22706.html)
+- The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board)
+-- Forum: C-House! (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-4.html)
+--- Forum: The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-5.html)
+--- Thread: CFP 2021 (/thread-22706.html)
RE: CFP 2021 - teejers1 - 12-08-2021
(12-08-2021, 07:56 PM)Goose Wrote:(12-08-2021, 04:29 PM)teejers1 Wrote:First of all, this question is about Harbaugh, not Shaw. How I answer a question about Harbaugh says nothing at all about Shaw, good, bad, or otherwise. This answer compares Harbaugh to nobody, not Shaw, not Kiffen, not Elway. It is about JH. I evaded nothing. I answered the question. Period.(12-08-2021, 04:03 PM)Goose Wrote:(12-08-2021, 03:28 PM)teejers1 Wrote: Okay, just a yes or no then, do you think a Harbaugh led college football team would fall to the depths Stanford has under Shaw?I am not BC, but I will jump in here anyway. No, Harbaugh wouldn't fall that low because when things got pear shaped enough he would do something stupid and get fired. His conduct rubs people the wrong way at times. He does not deal with adversity calmly. That will catch up to a coach if he has a few 6-6 type seasons, so he would be long gone before he went 3-9. As it is, 2020 almost got him. Some thought he would be let go at that point.
Nice evasion.
Harbaugh's record as a college head coach:
USD:
7-4
11-1
11-1
Stanford:
4-8
5-7
8-5
12-1
Michigan:
10-3
10-3
8-5
10-3
9-4
2-4
12-1 (In CFP, still game(s) left).
What leads you to believe that Harbaugh would have "a few 6-6 type seasons" leading to him getting canned?
Respectfully, in your insistence on not wanting to denigrate Shaw - especially in comparison to Harbs (which is understandable) - you're reaching . . . for anything.
Second, what makes me think Harbaugh would get canned after a couple of 6-6 seasons was somewhat clear (I thought) in my answer. He almost got canned over the 2-4 in 2020, but COVID probably saved him. They fired Brady Hoke after 7-6 5-7. Harbaugh rubs some people the wrong way, as I said. He won't get much sympathy based on his personality. He also has a history of making remarks that could be considered objectionable. Put those facts together and I think it probable he would be gone.
As BC pointed out, he has made many changes in staff while searching for the formula to beat tOSU. Up until this year, those changes didn't work real well. He had continuing very good but not great results. He was looking for an answer, and appeared to be flailing around a bit. He stayed at Michigan by taking a of immense proportions pay cut in 2021, going from an 8M base salary down to about 4.1M plus incentives. That shows he wasn't getting any mulligans.
I happen to think Jim Harbaugh is a pretty good coach. I also think he is willing to try things to improve his team. Sometimes, things you try don't work out and you go 6-6. So far, that hasn't happened to him, but it could. JH has also used EUTM to build closely knit teams that played hard and perhaps better than they objectively were at times. He created an "Us against the world" ethos, and coupled that with "We get no respect". That can work great if the players buy in. He certainly did that at Stanford when he first arrived, and he did the same at the 49ers. When he came to Michigan, he couldn't really do that, because they weren't terrible. They were just not as good as they needed to be. He has had some ups and downs at Michigan but he has basically hung in there.
In 2020 the wheels kind of came off. That was bad, but the pundits predicted his team would finish 4th in the East and they question the competence of the offense, which was worse. Harbaugh had been moving to a "speed in space" approach, but this years team simply didn't have the athletes to do that. To his credit, he looked at what he had and realized the previous approach wasn't viable this year. He needed to adapt to the actual players he had, not the ones he wished he had. However, he now could build his "band of brothers", and he did. Please read
https://michigan.rivals.com/news/column-program-buy-in-vaults-michigan-to-championship-heights
Harbaugh is a good coach partly because he can take advantage of situations like this. Has he "turned the program around"? Perhaps. Will he now dominate tOSU? Maybe, but reading the article makes one think it is a serendipity. If he can sustain the ethos, it may work for a while. After, who knows?
I got it.
So your answer is "no" - not because he couldn't/wouldn't lead a team to a 3-9 record, but that he would "have a few 6-6 seasons" and get canned or move on.
I guess I'll close with this: 6-6 is so far above what we just witnessed and so far above what we are likely to see in the next 2 years, at least. And it wasn't just the 3-9 record, it was getting absolutely outclassed and humiliated, on your home field no less, including by your rival (who was not even a good team this year). I doubt there are many head coaches in D1 football who would have let Stanford, with that roster, sink to the depths it did this past season . . . we just happen to have one of them.
RE: CFP 2021 - DC 86 - 12-08-2021
(12-08-2021, 08:01 PM)Farm93 Wrote: If Harbaugh had stayed??
What are we talking about? He was open to new opportunities almost before he got on campus. Those in the Bay Area likely can share the stories of him meeting with Michigan and NFL types very, very early in his tenure. The idea that he would be at Stanford for 12-15+ years is beyond crazy.
Obviously nobody was asserting that possibility. It's merely a device for contrasting the personalities of our two most recent head coaches.
It's like saying "If Roosevelt was negotiating with Putin ..."
RE: CFP 2021 - BostonCard - 12-08-2021
The guy almost left Stanford for *Kansas*, for goodness sakes. I’m glad he didn’t, but from academic reasons, I guess we would have been able to test Teejers’ hypothesis.
Harbaugh is a very good coach, no doubt. I think good coaches in top schools who can draw in good talent and not squander it should be able to win most of the time, so Harbaugh is unlikely to have a season go truly sideways. Now that being said, can I imagine Harbaugh going through a relative rough patch? Sure, those things happen even to good coaches. Can I imagine him doing nothing about it? No. So maybe that’s the answer to your question. But that also doesn’t mean that what he would do is guaranteed to work, though. So yeah, it’s possible that Michigan/Harbaugh would get into a funk they have trouble getting out of. The issue is that at Michigan, that’s a 7-5 season, not a 3-9 season.
BC
RE: CFP 2021 - Mick - 12-09-2021
(12-05-2021, 01:20 PM)Phogge Wrote: ESPN says "Sit" to the committee. Then "Beg," then "Rollover."
Then "Play Dead."
RE: CFP 2021 - Goose - 12-09-2021
(12-08-2021, 11:29 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Harbaugh is a very good coach, no doubt. I think good coaches in top schools who can draw in good talent and not squander it should be able to win most of the time, so Harbaugh is unlikely to have a season go truly sideways. Now that being said, can I imagine Harbaugh going through a relative rough patch? Sure, those things happen even to good coaches. Can I imagine him doing nothing about it? No. So maybe that’s the answer to your question. But that also doesn’t mean that what he would do is guaranteed to work, though. So yeah, it’s possible that Michigan/Harbaugh would get into a funk they have trouble getting out of. The issue is that at Michigan, that’s a 7-5 season, not a 3-9 season.I totally agree with your statement here except that I disagree where the floor is. If you project Harbaugh's 2020 record to a full season, he would have been 4-8. Even at a "good" program it really doesn't take much to have a 0.500 season. A few injuries in positions where you are strong coupled with a somewhat unusual weakness in other areas can do that. One could argue that Harbaugh's 8-8 season in his last year with the 49ers was an example of that. (NFL vs. college are different, and obviously his firing was more political than performance based).
BC
Until this year, Harbaugh had limited emotional capital in the bank with the fans and the AD. Being an alum helped, and he hadn't had any real bad season. However, his failure to beat tOSU was beginning to sting. His bad 2020 and the associated doubt about his offensive skill positions going into this year almost got him. His success this year against tOSU made a big deposit in his account with the fans and the AD. Further, his choice to divert his bonuses to the rest of the department (which I think was a genuine good deed) has the additional benefit of adding to that capital. He has probably gained immunity to at least one 6-6 season, which he didn't have before. Anything he manages to do going forward this year is gravy.
RE: CFP 2021 - TriangleTree - 12-09-2021
(12-09-2021, 10:58 AM)Goose Wrote:(12-08-2021, 11:29 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Harbaugh is a very good coach, no doubt. I think good coaches in top schools who can draw in good talent and not squander it should be able to win most of the time, so Harbaugh is unlikely to have a season go truly sideways. Now that being said, can I imagine Harbaugh going through a relative rough patch? Sure, those things happen even to good coaches. Can I imagine him doing nothing about it? No. So maybe that’s the answer to your question. But that also doesn’t mean that what he would do is guaranteed to work, though. So yeah, it’s possible that Michigan/Harbaugh would get into a funk they have trouble getting out of. The issue is that at Michigan, that’s a 7-5 season, not a 3-9 season.I totally agree with your statement here except that I disagree where the floor is. If you project Harbaugh's 2020 record to a full season, he would have been 4-8. Even at a "good" program it really doesn't take much to have a 0.500 season. A few injuries in positions where you are strong coupled with a somewhat unusual weakness in other areas can do that. One could argue that Harbaugh's 8-8 season in his last year with the 49ers was an example of that. (NFL vs. college are different, and obviously his firing was more political than performance based).
BC
Until this year, Harbaugh had limited emotional capital in the bank with the fans and the AD. Being an alum helped, and he hadn't had any real bad season. However, his failure to beat tOSU was beginning to sting. His bad 2020 and the associated doubt about his offensive skill positions going into this year almost got him. His success this year against tOSU made a big deposit in his account with the fans and the AD. Further, his choice to divert his bonuses to the rest of the department (which I think was a genuine good deed) has the additional benefit of adding to that capital. He has probably gained immunity to at least one 6-6 season, which he didn't have before. Anything he manages to do going forward this year is gravy.
Wasn't his compensation restructured to be more incentive based?
I don't remember the details, but recall thinking this as a reasonable and fair compromise to extend the Harbaugh project whilst appeasing the increasingly unhappy base.
Would Stanford/Shaw consider something similar? Seems like a reasonable compromise solution to me.
RE: CFP 2021 - DC 86 - 12-09-2021
(12-09-2021, 12:19 PM)TriangleTree Wrote: Wasn't his compensation restructured to be more incentive based?
I don't remember the details, but recall thinking this as a reasonable and fair compromise to extend the Harbaugh project whilst appeasing the increasingly unhappy base.
Would Stanford/Shaw consider something similar? Seems like a reasonable compromise solution to me.
Harbaugh only had one more year left on his contract so the cost of dismissing him wasn't exorbitant, giving leverage to Michigan, which it exercised by cutting his guaranteed salary in half while providing him a chance to almost fully recoup via incentives.
Setting aside Stanford/Muir's seeming commitment to Shaw, I don't know how many years Shaw has left on this contract. If it's multiple years (three?) with a strong buyout then Stanford doesn't really have a hammer to induce Shaw to voluntarily reduce his pay. Maybe someone on the board has information about Shaw's contract (including buyout terms) but those details don't seem to be publicly available. And it's probably a moot point anyway.
RE: CFP 2021 - Goose - 12-09-2021
(12-09-2021, 12:59 PM)DC 86 Wrote:True. Allowing Harbaugh to become a "lame duck" would have been a catastrophe for recruiting, so that wasn't an option. They had to either fire him or extend him. It must also be noted that the incentives only get him back to "even" with his previous base. He got no raise, which isn't a good sign. The other side of that coin was that Harbaugh was extended through 2025. Even at the 4M base the time period gave Harbaugh back a pretty good buyout and indicated some significant time period to perform. There was a real fear that 2021 would be as bad or worse than 2020. That also gave Michigan leverage for the pay cut. Fortunately for Harbaugh, he was able to completely turn that around. If he beats tOSU next year, I am pretty sure he could negotiate a new contract. If OTOH next year isn't so good, he is still safe. The incentive laden contract covers a lot of issues for both sides.(12-09-2021, 12:19 PM)TriangleTree Wrote: Wasn't his compensation restructured to be more incentive based?
I don't remember the details, but recall thinking this as a reasonable and fair compromise to extend the Harbaugh project whilst appeasing the increasingly unhappy base.
Would Stanford/Shaw consider something similar? Seems like a reasonable compromise solution to me.
Harbaugh only had one more year left on his contract so the cost of dismissing him wasn't exorbitant, giving leverage to Michigan, which it exercised by cutting his guaranteed salary in half while providing him a chance to almost fully recoup via incentives.
RE: CFP 2021 - teejers1 - 12-09-2021
(12-09-2021, 01:47 PM)Goose Wrote:(12-09-2021, 12:59 PM)DC 86 Wrote:True. Allowing Harbaugh to become a "lame duck" would have been a catastrophe for recruiting, so that wasn't an option. They had to either fire him or extend him. It must also be noted that the incentives only get him back to "even" with his previous base. He got no raise, which isn't a good sign. The other side of that coin was that Harbaugh was extended through 2025. Even at the 4M base the time period gave Harbaugh back a pretty good buyout and indicated some significant time period to perform. There was a real fear that 2021 would be as bad or worse than 2020. That also gave Michigan leverage for the pay cut. Fortunately for Harbaugh, he was able to completely turn that around. If he beats tOSU next year, I am pretty sure he could negotiate a new contract. If OTOH next year isn't so good, he is still safe. The incentive laden contract covers a lot of issues for both sides.(12-09-2021, 12:19 PM)TriangleTree Wrote: Wasn't his compensation restructured to be more incentive based?
I don't remember the details, but recall thinking this as a reasonable and fair compromise to extend the Harbaugh project whilst appeasing the increasingly unhappy base.
Would Stanford/Shaw consider something similar? Seems like a reasonable compromise solution to me.
Harbaugh only had one more year left on his contract so the cost of dismissing him wasn't exorbitant, giving leverage to Michigan, which it exercised by cutting his guaranteed salary in half while providing him a chance to almost fully recoup via incentives.
"There was a real fear that 2021 would be as bad or worse than 2020."
Really? By whom?
When you consistently recruit at the level Harbaugh does, and when you are continually looking to upgrade/improve the coaching staff, I think the chances of a "bad or worse" record from a throw-away 2-4 season is almost non-existent. I don't recall seeing anywhere a fear (let alone an expectation) that Michigan would go 4-8 in 2021. C'mon now . . .
I'm fine with you saying MichiganFan was sick and tired of losing to tOSU. But I don't think that sick and tiredness ever came close to putting Harbs on the hot seat. His record was very, very good . . . and that was before this year. In all events, there were never any fears of a 4-8 season that I saw or heard (but then again, I don't patrol Michigan fan boards, so maybe there was an isolated naysayer).
RE: CFP 2021 - Papa John - 12-09-2021
(12-09-2021, 04:39 PM)teejers1 Wrote:(12-09-2021, 01:47 PM)Goose Wrote:(12-09-2021, 12:59 PM)DC 86 Wrote:True. Allowing Harbaugh to become a "lame duck" would have been a catastrophe for recruiting, so that wasn't an option. They had to either fire him or extend him. It must also be noted that the incentives only get him back to "even" with his previous base. He got no raise, which isn't a good sign. The other side of that coin was that Harbaugh was extended through 2025. Even at the 4M base the time period gave Harbaugh back a pretty good buyout and indicated some significant time period to perform. There was a real fear that 2021 would be as bad or worse than 2020. That also gave Michigan leverage for the pay cut. Fortunately for Harbaugh, he was able to completely turn that around. If he beats tOSU next year, I am pretty sure he could negotiate a new contract. If OTOH next year isn't so good, he is still safe. The incentive laden contract covers a lot of issues for both sides.(12-09-2021, 12:19 PM)TriangleTree Wrote: Wasn't his compensation restructured to be more incentive based?
I don't remember the details, but recall thinking this as a reasonable and fair compromise to extend the Harbaugh project whilst appeasing the increasingly unhappy base.
Would Stanford/Shaw consider something similar? Seems like a reasonable compromise solution to me.
Harbaugh only had one more year left on his contract so the cost of dismissing him wasn't exorbitant, giving leverage to Michigan, which it exercised by cutting his guaranteed salary in half while providing him a chance to almost fully recoup via incentives.
"There was a real fear that 2021 would be as bad or worse than 2020."
Really? By whom?
When you consistently recruit at the level Harbaugh does, and when you are continually looking to upgrade/improve the coaching staff, I think the chances of a "bad or worse" record from a throw-away 2-4 season is almost non-existent. I don't recall seeing anywhere a fear (let alone an expectation) that Michigan would go 4-8 in 2021. C'mon now . . .
Preseason B1G football rankings for Michigan
B1G Media: 4th out of 7 in the East
College Football News: 3rd in the East
Sports Illustrated: 7th out of 14 in the B1G
SBNation: 5th in the B1G
ESPN FPI: 7th in the B1G, 40th in the nation
USA Today (Myerberg): 6th in the B1G
Saturday Blitz: 7th in the B1G
From this perspective, a 4-8 prediction does seem extreme, especially since Penn State finished 4th in the East with a record of 4-5, 7-5. It's difficult to extrapolate the 7th best team in the B1G this year, but I think 5-4, 8-4 is reasonable. So the self-proclaimed experts in the media were predicting around a .500 conference record--and another loss to tOSU--and an overall winning record.
On the other hand, I don't read the Michigan fan boards, and I wouldn't be surprised if some of the sky-is-falling crowd were expecting worse than the media predictions.
What's more interesting to me is that no one in the media was projecting anything close to what Harbaugh/Michigan accomplished this year.
RE: CFP 2021 - BostonCard - 12-09-2021
(12-09-2021, 10:58 AM)Goose Wrote: I totally agree with your statement here except that I disagree where the floor is. If you project Harbaugh's 2020 record to a full season, he would have been 4-8. Even at a "good" program it really doesn't take much to have a 0.500 season. A few injuries in positions where you are strong coupled with a somewhat unusual weakness in other areas can do that. One could argue that Harbaugh's 8-8 season in his last year with the 49ers was an example of that. (NFL vs. college are different, and obviously his firing was more political than performance based).
Until this year, Harbaugh had limited emotional capital in the bank with the fans and the AD. Being an alum helped, and he hadn't had any real bad season. However, his failure to beat tOSU was beginning to sting. His bad 2020 and the associated doubt about his offensive skill positions going into this year almost got him. His success this year against tOSU made a big deposit in his account with the fans and the AD. Further, his choice to divert his bonuses to the rest of the department (which I think was a genuine good deed) has the additional benefit of adding to that capital. He has probably gained immunity to at least one 6-6 season, which he didn't have before. Anything he manages to do going forward this year is gravy.
Since Bo Schemblecker was hired in 1969, Michigan has only had four seasons under .500, Rich Rod’s first two seasons. (2008 and 2009), Brady Hoke’s last season (2014), and the COVID-influenced 2020 season under Harbaugh. Thus, I think it is safe to say that in a non-pandemic year, the floor for a “good coach”, defined as better than Rich Rodriguez and Brady Hoke, is around .500.
BC
RE: CFP 2021 - Austroturf - 12-10-2021
(12-09-2021, 05:21 PM)Papa John Wrote:(12-09-2021, 04:39 PM)teejers1 Wrote:(12-09-2021, 01:47 PM)Goose Wrote:(12-09-2021, 12:59 PM)DC 86 Wrote:True. Allowing Harbaugh to become a "lame duck" would have been a catastrophe for recruiting, so that wasn't an option. They had to either fire him or extend him. It must also be noted that the incentives only get him back to "even" with his previous base. He got no raise, which isn't a good sign. The other side of that coin was that Harbaugh was extended through 2025. Even at the 4M base the time period gave Harbaugh back a pretty good buyout and indicated some significant time period to perform. There was a real fear that 2021 would be as bad or worse than 2020. That also gave Michigan leverage for the pay cut. Fortunately for Harbaugh, he was able to completely turn that around. If he beats tOSU next year, I am pretty sure he could negotiate a new contract. If OTOH next year isn't so good, he is still safe. The incentive laden contract covers a lot of issues for both sides.(12-09-2021, 12:19 PM)TriangleTree Wrote: Wasn't his compensation restructured to be more incentive based?
I don't remember the details, but recall thinking this as a reasonable and fair compromise to extend the Harbaugh project whilst appeasing the increasingly unhappy base.
Would Stanford/Shaw consider something similar? Seems like a reasonable compromise solution to me.
Harbaugh only had one more year left on his contract so the cost of dismissing him wasn't exorbitant, giving leverage to Michigan, which it exercised by cutting his guaranteed salary in half while providing him a chance to almost fully recoup via incentives.
"There was a real fear that 2021 would be as bad or worse than 2020."
Really? By whom?
When you consistently recruit at the level Harbaugh does, and when you are continually looking to upgrade/improve the coaching staff, I think the chances of a "bad or worse" record from a throw-away 2-4 season is almost non-existent. I don't recall seeing anywhere a fear (let alone an expectation) that Michigan would go 4-8 in 2021. C'mon now . . .
Preseason B1G football rankings for Michigan
B1G Media: 4th out of 7 in the East
College Football News: 3rd in the East
Sports Illustrated: 7th out of 14 in the B1G
SBNation: 5th in the B1G
ESPN FPI: 7th in the B1G, 40th in the nation
USA Today (Myerberg): 6th in the B1G
Saturday Blitz: 7th in the B1G
From this perspective, a 4-8 prediction does seem extreme, especially since Penn State finished 4th in the East with a record of 4-5, 7-5. It's difficult to extrapolate the 7th best team in the B1G this year, but I think 5-4, 8-4 is reasonable. So the self-proclaimed experts in the media were predicting around a .500 conference record--and another loss to tOSU--and an overall winning record.
On the other hand, I don't read the Michigan fan boards, and I wouldn't be surprised if some of the sky-is-falling crowd were expecting worse than the media predictions.
What's more interesting to me is that no one in the media was projecting anything close to what Harbaugh/Michigan accomplished this year.
I ventured over to the Michigan boards after the MSU loss this year. Harbaugh was being flayed by the irate fans. I did the same following the Big Ten Conference Championship: sunshine and goodness. Fan bases are notoriously volatile. In fact, it is almost axiomatic that fans are disappointed 90% of the time, mainly due to high expectations that mathematically cannot come to fruition. There is only one national champion per year; only one Big Ten champion per year: only one East champion per year; only one winner of the UM-OSU battle per year, etc. If, as a fan, you think success means having all that, you are bound to be disappointed. And if you are not disappointed, a multitude of other fans are. Alabama's fan base has been riled up most of the year, because their team was not #1 and was not blowing their opponents out. I have not ventured over to Georgia's boards, but I bet they are steaming about their consistent failure to punk Bama when the championship is on the line. Fans hate their lives most of the time; but they never fail to get their expectations up to stratospheric levels at the beginning of every season! Regarding Stanford's situation, I don't think any of us will have stratospheric expectations next season; and that could prove to be the right conditions for a positive surprise. Let's see.
lex24 - lex24 - 12-11-2021
JH National COY. Deservedly so.
The Mich-Georgia game is intriguing. Two very physical teams with excellent defenses. But I don’t think either has a great QB. Which is why eventually I think whoever wins, loses to Bama. Absent one team having a major advantage at the LOS, in a Championship series, I’m taking the team with the best QB.
RE: CFP 2021 - Papa John - 12-11-2021
I agree lex24, Harbaugh deserved COY. But I think Michigan has as good a chance to win the whole thing as UGA or Bama.
RE: CFP 2021 - Goose - 12-12-2021
(12-09-2021, 09:08 PM)BostonCard Wrote:I return to this dead horse because I think Harbaugh deserves even more credit than he is getting for 2021. Indeed it is reasonable to say the "floor" for a good coach at Michigan is 0.500. The point is that many (most??) media had decided Harbaugh was no longer a good coach. There were many articles that predicted the 2021 team would be worse than the 2020 team, because they had lost players at the skill positions on offense that had no obvious adequate replacements. One article I read said that Michigan in 2021 would go as far as the defense could take them, which wouldn't be far considering it gave up 42 points to Rutgers. While nobody said (that I could find) Michigan could be worse than 4-8 in so many words, there were plenty saying 2021 would be worse than 2020. There are many articles saying McNamara just isn't the guy and they will have to start the freshman. It was pretty ugly.(12-09-2021, 10:58 AM)Goose Wrote: I totally agree with your statement here except that I disagree where the floor is. If you project Harbaugh's 2020 record to a full season, he would have been 4-8. Even at a "good" program it really doesn't take much to have a 0.500 season. A few injuries in positions where you are strong coupled with a somewhat unusual weakness in other areas can do that. One could argue that Harbaugh's 8-8 season in his last year with the 49ers was an example of that. (NFL vs. college are different, and obviously his firing was more political than performance based).
Until this year, Harbaugh had limited emotional capital in the bank with the fans and the AD. Being an alum helped, and he hadn't had any real bad season. However, his failure to beat tOSU was beginning to sting. His bad 2020 and the associated doubt about his offensive skill positions going into this year almost got him. His success this year against tOSU made a big deposit in his account with the fans and the AD. Further, his choice to divert his bonuses to the rest of the department (which I think was a genuine good deed) has the additional benefit of adding to that capital. He has probably gained immunity to at least one 6-6 season, which he didn't have before. Anything he manages to do going forward this year is gravy.
Since Bo Schemblecker was hired in 1969, Michigan has only had four seasons under .500, Rich Rod’s first two seasons. (2008 and 2009), Brady Hoke’s last season (2014), and the COVID-influenced 2020 season under Harbaugh. Thus, I think it is safe to say that in a non-pandemic year, the floor for a “good coach”, defined as better than Rich Rodriguez and Brady Hoke, is around .500.
BC
The other person who was clearly very concerned about 2021 was Harbaugh. He had almost lost his job. He was fully aware that this years team would not be competitive if it attempted to play using the strategy he had been employing the last few years. During his time at Michigan he had migrated away from the "ground and pound" approach to the “speed in space” approach. Harbaugh clearly felt that evolution was necessary to beat tOSU, but it wasn't working in general and he didn't have the team for it in 2021. They did a complete reset to create a strategy that would best utilize what was on the roster, and they would be whatever they had to be in order to win. Not only did that take a lot of courage, it took a lot of skill and coaching prowess to make the result work at all, let alone work as well as it did. Granted, it also took having guys on the team that would "buy in" and do what was necessary. Once again, read https://michigan.rivals.com/news/column-program-buy-in-vaults-michigan-to-championship-heights.
Did JH expect to win the B1G this year? I very seriously doubt it. He was probably hoping to be respectable, like 7-5. They had to restructure a team to play a different way than they had been recruiting towards for years. Never what you want to be forced to do.
During the season, after the Michigan State loss, there was more negative press. The team could have lost their confidence. They didn't. Again, it takes a certain kind of players and coaches to make that happen. Now, look where they are. JH has already received coach of the year. He will receive more. Things were ugly. They are much less so now. Consider https://www.yahoo.com/news/david-briggs-apology-letter-jim-193200287.html. Yes, there was a lot of negativity out there.
Was Harbaugh lucky? You bet he was, but it is often how you exploit your luck that show true competence in sports. Harbaugh was certainly lucky that he had an OL and set of backs that could execute any coherent strategy at all, given that it wouldn't be the one he intended to use and had recruited to. He was lucky that his defense played even better than expected. He was lucky that in only the MSU game did they have to leave their offensive comfort zone and play serious catch-up. He was lucky that tOSU is a bit down this year and his team could use their physicality to win. But even with these advantages, if you do not or can not grab the opportunity when presented, it doesn't matter. Harbaugh and Michigan could and did in an almost flawless manner. Truly amazing. Harbaugh is now lucky that the Georgia DC is going to Oregon. While he will remain at Georgia for the CFP, the distraction can't help the Georgia defense. Can Michigan take advantage again?
RE: CFP 2021 - BostonCard - 12-12-2021
This was the most Harbaugh statement ever.
Quote: “Well, I’m here before you, enthusiastic and excited as I ever am, always am, even more to have at it, to win the championship, to beat Ohio and our rival Michigan State,” Harbaugh said. “That’s what we want to do, and we’re going to do it or die trying.”
And you know what, they did it (well, the tOSU part). Having beaten tOSU, nobody is going to care too much that he didn’t beat MSU.
https://www.si.com/college/ohiostate/football/ohio-state-football-jim-harbaugh-vows-michigan-wolverines-going-beat-buckeyes-or-die-trying
BC
RE: CFP 2021 - Goose - 12-12-2021
(12-12-2021, 10:57 AM)BostonCard Wrote: This was the most Harbaugh statement ever.Very true, at least this year. Next year, JH has another set of choices to make. Stay with what they did this year, go back to what they were doing previously, or something else? The defense next year probably isn't going to be near as good. Expectations have been raised. The ground and pound may not work as well. He loses two of his OL I think, maybe more. Interesting times.
Quote: “Well, I’m here before you, enthusiastic and excited as I ever am, always am, even more to have at it, to win the championship, to beat Ohio and our rival Michigan State,” Harbaugh said. “That’s what we want to do, and we’re going to do it or die trying.”
And you know what, they did it (well, the tOSU part). Having beaten tOSU, nobody is going to care too much that he didn’t beat MSU.
https://www.si.com/college/ohiostate/football/ohio-state-football-jim-harbaugh-vows-michigan-wolverines-going-beat-buckeyes-or-die-trying
BC
RE: CFP 2021 - terry - 12-12-2021
(12-11-2021, 02:37 PM)Papa John Wrote: I agree lex24, Harbaugh deserved COY. But I think Michigan has as good a chance to win the whole thing as UGA or Bama.
Depending on where you look, the betting odds are roughly:
Alabama +120
Georgia +140
Michigan +800
Cincinnati +1600
RE: CFP 2021 - teejers1 - 12-12-2021
(12-12-2021, 10:10 AM)Goose Wrote:(12-09-2021, 09:08 PM)BostonCard Wrote:I return to this dead horse because I think Harbaugh deserves even more credit than he is getting for 2021. Indeed it is reasonable to say the "floor" for a good coach at Michigan is 0.500. The point is that many (most??) media had decided Harbaugh was no longer a good coach. There were many articles that predicted the 2021 team would be worse than the 2020 team, because they had lost players at the skill positions on offense that had no obvious adequate replacements. One article I read said that Michigan in 2021 would go as far as the defense could take them, which wouldn't be far considering it gave up 42 points to Rutgers. While nobody said (that I could find) Michigan could be worse than 4-8 in so many words, there were plenty saying 2021 would be worse than 2020. There are many articles saying McNamara just isn't the guy and they will have to start the freshman. It was pretty ugly.(12-09-2021, 10:58 AM)Goose Wrote: I totally agree with your statement here except that I disagree where the floor is. If you project Harbaugh's 2020 record to a full season, he would have been 4-8. Even at a "good" program it really doesn't take much to have a 0.500 season. A few injuries in positions where you are strong coupled with a somewhat unusual weakness in other areas can do that. One could argue that Harbaugh's 8-8 season in his last year with the 49ers was an example of that. (NFL vs. college are different, and obviously his firing was more political than performance based).
Until this year, Harbaugh had limited emotional capital in the bank with the fans and the AD. Being an alum helped, and he hadn't had any real bad season. However, his failure to beat tOSU was beginning to sting. His bad 2020 and the associated doubt about his offensive skill positions going into this year almost got him. His success this year against tOSU made a big deposit in his account with the fans and the AD. Further, his choice to divert his bonuses to the rest of the department (which I think was a genuine good deed) has the additional benefit of adding to that capital. He has probably gained immunity to at least one 6-6 season, which he didn't have before. Anything he manages to do going forward this year is gravy.
Since Bo Schemblecker was hired in 1969, Michigan has only had four seasons under .500, Rich Rod’s first two seasons. (2008 and 2009), Brady Hoke’s last season (2014), and the COVID-influenced 2020 season under Harbaugh. Thus, I think it is safe to say that in a non-pandemic year, the floor for a “good coach”, defined as better than Rich Rodriguez and Brady Hoke, is around .500.
BC
The other person who was clearly very concerned about 2021 was Harbaugh. He had almost lost his job. He was fully aware that this years team would not be competitive if it attempted to play using the strategy he had been employing the last few years. During his time at Michigan he had migrated away from the "ground and pound" approach to the “speed in space” approach. Harbaugh clearly felt that evolution was necessary to beat tOSU, but it wasn't working in general and he didn't have the team for it in 2021. They did a complete reset to create a strategy that would best utilize what was on the roster, and they would be whatever they had to be in order to win. Not only did that take a lot of courage, it took a lot of skill and coaching prowess to make the result work at all, let alone work as well as it did. Granted, it also took having guys on the team that would "buy in" and do what was necessary. Once again, read https://michigan.rivals.com/news/column-program-buy-in-vaults-michigan-to-championship-heights.
Did JH expect to win the B1G this year? I very seriously doubt it. He was probably hoping to be respectable, like 7-5. They had to restructure a team to play a different way than they had been recruiting towards for years. Never what you want to be forced to do.
During the season, after the Michigan State loss, there was more negative press. The team could have lost their confidence. They didn't. Again, it takes a certain kind of players and coaches to make that happen. Now, look where they are. JH has already received coach of the year. He will receive more. Things were ugly. They are much less so now. Consider https://www.yahoo.com/news/david-briggs-apology-letter-jim-193200287.html. Yes, there was a lot of negativity out there.
Was Harbaugh lucky? You bet he was, but it is often how you exploit your luck that show true competence in sports. Harbaugh was certainly lucky that he had an OL and set of backs that could execute any coherent strategy at all, given that it wouldn't be the one he intended to use and had recruited to. He was lucky that his defense played even better than expected. He was lucky that in only the MSU game did they have to leave their offensive comfort zone and play serious catch-up. He was lucky that tOSU is a bit down this year and his team could use their physicality to win. But even with these advantages, if you do not or can not grab the opportunity when presented, it doesn't matter. Harbaugh and Michigan could and did in an almost flawless manner. Truly amazing. Harbaugh is now lucky that the Georgia DC is going to Oregon. While he will remain at Georgia for the CFP, the distraction can't help the Georgia defense. Can Michigan take advantage again?
C'mon now, Goose. "Lucky" is Michigan State beating Michigan on the blocked punt on the last play of the game a couple years ago; "lucky" is seemingly getting all the calls after your team is down double-digits to Michigan and looking to get run out (and I loved MSU's moxie in that game, but still). There was nothing "lucky" about Michigan this year. Great recruiting, preparation, coaching and hard work. THAT's what gets results. Luck usually follows those who work their asses off.
RE: CFP 2021 - Goose - 12-13-2021
(12-12-2021, 10:41 PM)teejers1 Wrote: C'mon now, Goose. "Lucky" is Michigan State beating Michigan on the blocked punt on the last play of the game a couple years ago; "lucky" is seemingly getting all the calls after your team is down double-digits to Michigan and looking to get run out (and I loved MSU's moxie in that game, but still). There was nothing "lucky" about Michigan this year. Great recruiting, preparation, coaching and hard work. THAT's what gets results. Luck usually follows those who work their asses off.Well, as my post shows, I totally agree with your last sentence. Your statement about "Great recruiting, preparation, coaching and hard work." is partially true, but the fact is that Harbaugh's recruiting was seriously flawed. He was trying to recruit a more Oregon" offense and didn't succeed at it. Fortunately (lucky) for him, he had enough athletes with the necessary skills that he could put together a viable "Stanford" offense with the players he had. There was no guarantee that would be possible. It wasn't planned that way. He had to change his offensive focus over one off season while COVID was still an issue. Pretty much every B1G team has lots of "preparation, coaching and hard work". Indeed these actions are a necessary condition to success, but they are not sufficient. Making the "right" choices of what to do is critical. Harbaugh was fortunate his guys bought in to the new offensive scheme. He is very good at creating an "us against the world" vibe, but it doesn't always work. Sometimes the players just tune him out. That didn't happen, and is a function of who his guys were this year. Didn't have to go that way. So IMHO there was some significant good luck involved. As I said, Harbaugh (and his guys) took full advantage of their opportunities. That is why he is a COY in spades.