Thank you David Shaw and Bernard Muir. Tonight is your legacy. - Printable Version
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RE: Thank you David Shaw and Bernard Muir. Tonight is your legacy. - msqueri - 09-13-2023
(09-13-2023, 11:02 AM)Mick Wrote: Taylor's not really the EUTM type. And this is a team that needs someone who coaches like his hair is on fire. This is an urgent / emergent situation. And it's too bad we started against USC, but we can right the ship against Sacramento State.
The big game will actually be Arizona. That will tell whether this team is irreparably broken or not. Arizona and Stanford are #88 and #89 in RPI rankings. BTW, half of the conference is ranked in the top 17 in this (more or less) objective ranking and eight are in the Top 31. And my guess is that #31 will keep climbing. The remaining four -- Arizona, Stanford, Cal and Arizona State -- are #88, #89, #94 and #100, respectively. Arizona and Cal are on the schedule. Who knows? Maybe 4-8 is possible.
RealTimeRPI.com College Football
I personally think Sagarin has a better empirical track record than RPI. For what's it worth (not much for another several weeks when the data is better), here's how Sagarin handicaps our schedule:
@ Hawaii - WIN
@ USC - LOSS
Sacramento State - 63 percent
Arizona - 34 percent
Oregon - 4 percent
@ Colorado - 22 percent
UCLA - 17 percent
Washington - 4 percent
@ Washington State - 8 percent
@ Oregon State - 0 percent
Cal - 25 percent
Notre Dame - 0 percent
Projected win total: 2.77
This expectation of three wins with two being more likely than four compares unfavorably to what this exercise produced when handicapping our schedule against a baseline assumption that teams would be the same as they were last year (obviously false but for the purposes of off-season handicapping a useful assumption). The reason for that is that Arizona, Colorado, and Washington State, Cal, and Notre Dame all look very significantly improved. Washington looks a bit worse but very marginally compared to the significant improvements elsewhere. This schedule is brutal in a way we couldn't have expected. These improved teams all had cases to be made by their partisans that they were poised for improvement, but one could have just as easily been skeptical. As it's happened, they've all delivered so far. After Saturday every single game we play is against a team currently in the top 63. That's rough for a team currently barely in the top 100.
Going into the year 3-5 wins looked like the best bet but right now you'd have to say 2-4.
Arizona definitely a big game. Too early to say "irreparably" regardless of what happens.
RE: Thank you David Shaw and Bernard Muir. Tonight is your legacy. - SkiBum80 - 09-13-2023
(09-12-2023, 07:57 PM)cardcrimson Wrote: Amazing the twists a turns this thread has taken. I still stick to the title, that Saturday night was Shaw's and Muir's legacy. It was disgraceful Stanford football. The worst in nearly a generation, and that's on them. Yes, Shaw is the winningest coach in Stanford history, and got us to the Rose Bowl, but what he left is, well, pathetic. He wears that yoke. Muir too.
The nitpicking over the recruiting rankings from 18 years ago versus today is ridiculous. You all watched the talent on the field on Saturday. Seriously, is it better than what we saw during the 2000s? Methinks no, but I don't have the pedigree to judge players, especially recruits.
I still have hope that TT can right the ship that Muir and Shaw put asunder.
PSDs? Did they test positive at Stanford?
ACC? The last best (only) option for the non football sports. The Brothers Grimm relegated us to that last resort. It's their legacy, too.
My sizable respect for Coach Shaw took a serious hit, when on his way out the door, in his exit interview, he veered away from a straight talking football Coach, and became more like a politician, when he claimed he was leaving the program in great shape. That's when he lost me and I figured everything else he said was just gobbledygook and taken together, that and $5 buys you a latte at Starbucks.
RE: Thank you David Shaw and Bernard Muir. Tonight is your legacy. - Jamesy - 09-13-2023
(09-13-2023, 11:21 AM)msqueri Wrote:(09-13-2023, 11:02 AM)Mick Wrote: Taylor's not really the EUTM type. And this is a team that needs someone who coaches like his hair is on fire. This is an urgent / emergent situation. And it's too bad we started against USC, but we can right the ship against Sacramento State.
The big game will actually be Arizona. That will tell whether this team is irreparably broken or not. Arizona and Stanford are #88 and #89 in RPI rankings. BTW, half of the conference is ranked in the top 17 in this (more or less) objective ranking and eight are in the Top 31. And my guess is that #31 will keep climbing. The remaining four -- Arizona, Stanford, Cal and Arizona State -- are #88, #89, #94 and #100, respectively. Arizona and Cal are on the schedule. Who knows? Maybe 4-8 is possible.
RealTimeRPI.com College Football
I personally think Sagarin has a better empirical track record than RPI. For what's it worth (not much for another several weeks when the data is better), here's how Sagarin handicaps our schedule:
@ Hawaii - WIN
@ USC - LOSS
Sacramento State - 63 percent
Arizona - 34 percent
Oregon - 4 percent
@ Colorado - 22 percent
UCLA - 17 percent
Washington - 4 percent
@ Washington State - 8 percent
@ Oregon State - 0 percent
Cal - 25 percent
Notre Dame - 0 percent
Projected win total: 2.77
This expectation of three wins with two being more likely than four compares unfavorably to what this exercise produced when handicapping our schedule against a baseline assumption that teams would be the same as they were last year (obviously false but for the purposes of off-season handicapping a useful assumption). The reason for that is that Arizona, Colorado, and Washington State, Cal, and Notre Dame all look very significantly improved. Washington looks a bit worse but very marginally compared to the significant improvements elsewhere. This schedule is brutal in a way we couldn't have expected. These improved teams all had cases to be made by their partisans that they were poised for improvement, but one could have just as easily been skeptical. As it's happened, they've all delivered so far. After Saturday every single game we play is against a team currently in the top 63. That's rough for a team currently barely in the top 100.
Going into the year 3-5 wins looked like the best bet but right now you'd have to say 2-4.
Arizona definitely a big game. Too early to say "irreparably" regardless of what happens.
Wow only a 63% win probability against Sac State is quite the indictment against the program.
RE: Thank you David Shaw and Bernard Muir. Tonight is your legacy. - Vandelay - 09-24-2023
(09-13-2023, 12:23 PM)Jamesy Wrote:(09-13-2023, 11:21 AM)msqueri Wrote:(09-13-2023, 11:02 AM)Mick Wrote: Taylor's not really the EUTM type. And this is a team that needs someone who coaches like his hair is on fire. This is an urgent / emergent situation. And it's too bad we started against USC, but we can right the ship against Sacramento State.
The big game will actually be Arizona. That will tell whether this team is irreparably broken or not. Arizona and Stanford are #88 and #89 in RPI rankings. BTW, half of the conference is ranked in the top 17 in this (more or less) objective ranking and eight are in the Top 31. And my guess is that #31 will keep climbing. The remaining four -- Arizona, Stanford, Cal and Arizona State -- are #88, #89, #94 and #100, respectively. Arizona and Cal are on the schedule. Who knows? Maybe 4-8 is possible.
RealTimeRPI.com College Football
I personally think Sagarin has a better empirical track record than RPI. For what's it worth (not much for another several weeks when the data is better), here's how Sagarin handicaps our schedule:
@ Hawaii - WIN
@ USC - LOSS
Sacramento State - 63 percent
Arizona - 34 percent
Oregon - 4 percent
@ Colorado - 22 percent
UCLA - 17 percent
Washington - 4 percent
@ Washington State - 8 percent
@ Oregon State - 0 percent
Cal - 25 percent
Notre Dame - 0 percent
Projected win total: 2.77
This expectation of three wins with two being more likely than four compares unfavorably to what this exercise produced when handicapping our schedule against a baseline assumption that teams would be the same as they were last year (obviously false but for the purposes of off-season handicapping a useful assumption). The reason for that is that Arizona, Colorado, and Washington State, Cal, and Notre Dame all look very significantly improved. Washington looks a bit worse but very marginally compared to the significant improvements elsewhere. This schedule is brutal in a way we couldn't have expected. These improved teams all had cases to be made by their partisans that they were poised for improvement, but one could have just as easily been skeptical. As it's happened, they've all delivered so far. After Saturday every single game we play is against a team currently in the top 63. That's rough for a team currently barely in the top 100.
Going into the year 3-5 wins looked like the best bet but right now you'd have to say 2-4.
Arizona definitely a big game. Too early to say "irreparably" regardless of what happens.
Wow only a 63% win probability against Sac State is quite the indictment against the program.
63% win probability may have been overly optimistic.
RE: Thank you David Shaw and Bernard Muir. Tonight is your legacy. - chrisk - 09-24-2023
In this week’s Sagarin, stanford moved 1 ahead of Sac State, 102 to 103.
Arizona is 68.
RE: Thank you David Shaw and Bernard Muir. Tonight is your legacy. - gailtate - 09-24-2023
(09-24-2023, 12:25 PM)chrisk Wrote: In this week’s Sagarin, stanford moved 1 ahead of Sac State, 102 to 103.
Arizona is 68.
All respect to TT and his team, Stanford wins 1 this year, and maybe three in '24. This is not a "re-build". It's a new build. As in a new home starting with a new foundation. W's and L's are not as key as steady competitiveness like taking TCU and Notre Dame to the limit and beating San Jose State the way Stanford handled Hawaii.
RE: Thank you David Shaw and Bernard Muir. Tonight is your legacy. - 82lsju - 09-24-2023
(09-24-2023, 01:14 PM)gailtate Wrote:(09-24-2023, 12:25 PM)chrisk Wrote: In this week’s Sagarin, stanford moved 1 ahead of Sac State, 102 to 103.
Arizona is 68.
All respect to TT and his team, Stanford wins 1 this year, and maybe three in '24. This is not a "re-build". It's a new build. As in a new home starting with a new foundation. W's and L's are not as key as steady competitiveness like taking TCU and Notre Dame to the limit and beating San Jose State the way Stanford handled Hawaii.
and finding that the new foundation is going to be on landfill and needs pilings installed first...
RE: Thank you David Shaw and Bernard Muir. Tonight is your legacy. - Vandelay - 10-13-2023
This Colorado game might be the worst yet.
RE: Thank you David Shaw and Bernard Muir. Tonight is your legacy. - cardcrimson - 10-13-2023
(10-13-2023, 08:42 PM)Vandelay Wrote: This Colorado game might be the worst yet.
Can we please get rid of Muir. What has he done right in a decade? Been hopeful with TT, but tonight is really, really bad. . . .
RE: Thank you David Shaw and Bernard Muir. Tonight is your legacy. - thunder_chik - 10-13-2023
Muir allowed the football program to bleed out and it is looking like the patient is beyond saving.
RE: Thank you David Shaw and Bernard Muir. Tonight is your legacy. - cardcrimson - 10-13-2023
(10-13-2023, 08:58 PM)thunder_chik Wrote: Muir allowed the football program to bleed out and it is looking like the patient is beyond saving.
And the men's hoops is on life support. . . .
RE: Thank you David Shaw and Bernard Muir. Tonight is your legacy. - 76lsjumb - 10-13-2023
thunder_chik dateline='[url=tel:1697255913' Wrote: 1697255913[/url]']
Muir allowed the football program to bleed out and it is looking like the patient is beyond saving.
It’s only one game, but the biggest comeback win in school history isn’t a horrible legacy…
Mudhead - Mudhead - 10-14-2023
cardcrimson dateline='[url=tel:1697256385' Wrote: 1697256385[/url]']
thunder_chik dateline='[url=tel:1697255913' Wrote: 1697255913[/url]']
Muir allowed the football program to bleed out and it is looking like the patient is beyond saving.
And the men's hoops is on life support. . . .
OOPs!
RE: Thank you David Shaw and Bernard Muir. Tonight is your legacy. - PDX Card - 10-14-2023
(10-13-2023, 08:42 PM)Vandelay Wrote: This Colorado game might be the worst yet.
Until it wasn't.
Mudhead - Mudhead - 10-14-2023
cardcrimson dateline='[url=tel:1697256385' Wrote: 1697256385[/url]']
thunder_chik dateline='[url=tel:1697255913' Wrote: 1697255913[/url]']
Muir allowed the football program to bleed out and it is looking like the patient is beyond saving.
And the men's hoops is on life support. . . .
OOPs!
RE: Thank you David Shaw and Bernard Muir. Tonight is your legacy. - Mick - 10-14-2023
If they beat #18 UCLA, then I'll be impressed with Coach Taylor. I don't think anything Muir does will impress me.
RE: Thank you David Shaw and Bernard Muir. Tonight is your legacy. - GK3 - 10-14-2023
(10-14-2023, 12:11 AM)PDX Card Wrote:(10-13-2023, 08:42 PM)Vandelay Wrote: This Colorado game might be the worst yet.
Until it wasn't.
Pretty amazing, we showed up with our worst half of football followed by close to our best half of football in the same game. I guess they let the real team of out lock up or wherever they were.
RE: Thank you David Shaw and Bernard Muir. Tonight is your legacy. - M T - 10-14-2023
Remind me, who recruited Ayomanor?
RE: Thank you David Shaw and Bernard Muir. Tonight is your legacy. - Jamesy - 10-14-2023
(10-14-2023, 11:23 AM)M T Wrote: Remind me, who recruited Ayomanor?
Bobby Kennedy.
RE: Thank you David Shaw and Bernard Muir. Tonight is your legacy. - d4cohn - 10-14-2023
(10-14-2023, 11:26 AM)Jamesy Wrote:(10-14-2023, 11:23 AM)M T Wrote: Remind me, who recruited Ayomanor?
Bobby Kennedy.
Thank you Coach Kennedy and Coach Shaw.