Outside Topic Way OT: Israel - Printable Version
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RE: Way OT: Israel - cardcrimson - 10-12-2023
(10-12-2023, 08:05 PM)admin Wrote: I'm monitoring this thread for Antisemitism and Islamophobia. So far, I haven't seen either even though it has the high potential for both.
Because many news sources have left X due to its current ownership and because a large portion of its user base is likely to engage in either, I'm asking (but for now, not requiring) members not use that source on this thread.
Wow. Just wow. . . .
RE: Way OT: Israel - needle - 10-12-2023
Looks to me like there is a legit evac directive to Gaza civilians, despite what some are saying:
Quote: The military also warned Palestinian residents of Gaza not to approach an area near a fence with Israel, saying residents would be able to return only after permission was announced.
Gaza's government media office told Palestinians in Gaza that the Israeli warnings are false propaganda, and urged residents to not respond to them.
Israel-Palestine war live: Israel warns half of Gaza's population to evacuate to enclave's south | Middle East Eye
Inevitably, many will choose to stay and others frightened enough to leave will be simply unable to because of infirmities or lack of resources.
My heart is deeply, deeply sad. We need a genuine diplomacy miracle, but, that said, obviously Israel is justified in a military response. It's just the magnitude of that response that is weighing on my heart. I apologize for my junior-high level thoughts on all this. It is truly a time for prayer if you are so inclined.
RE: Way OT: Israel - lex24 - 10-13-2023
BigJohn043 dateline='[url=tel:1697167534' Wrote: 1697167534[/url]']
Goose dateline='[url=tel:1697157110' Wrote: 1697157110[/url]']
dabigv13 dateline='[url=tel:1697156316' Wrote: 1697156316[/url]']IMO it probably was a decision solely by Hamas. What Iran knew and when they knew it is IMO unclear. I don't think it was a "miscalculation". I think Hamas knew exactly what the result would be. This is an action that clearly was planned over a very long period of time. It wasn't done on impulse. Hamas wouldn't waste this action on a whim.
I am uncertain of Iran's involvement. It's certainly possible, they have some plausible motivations. But to me this smells more of a miscalculation by Hamas rather than something done at Iran's direction.
The lack of significant direct and immediate action by Hezbollah make me believe Iran didn't order this action. They would want maximum effect and a coordinated action, which this was not.
FWIW, I disagree. I think this was a classic case of the dog catching the car. Hammas thought they would kill a couple of jews and maybe take a hostage or two. They had no idea that their attack would work this well.
The consequences at this point are going to be horrific.
I think Hamas knew exactly what it is doing. Today world opinion is on Israel’s side. But Hamas knew Israel will respond and do so in a manner that will be deemed by many as “disproportionate.” Overtime, public opinion will shift. As pictures and stories of a flattened Gaza and the consequences to the Palestinians emerge.
Hamas then gets more backing not only among Arab nations , but in the West. (Particularly from a public relations, “hearts and souls” standpoint.)
RE: Way OT: Israel - gailtate - 10-13-2023
(10-13-2023, 07:41 AM)lex24 Wrote:BigJohn043 dateline='[url=tel:1697167534' Wrote: 1697167534[/url]']
Goose dateline='[url=tel:1697157110' Wrote: 1697157110[/url]']
dabigv13 dateline='[url=tel:1697156316' Wrote: 1697156316[/url]']IMO it probably was a decision solely by Hamas. What Iran knew and when they knew it is IMO unclear. I don't think it was a "miscalculation". I think Hamas knew exactly what the result would be. This is an action that clearly was planned over a very long period of time. It wasn't done on impulse. Hamas wouldn't waste this action on a whim.
I am uncertain of Iran's involvement. It's certainly possible, they have some plausible motivations. But to me this smells more of a miscalculation by Hamas rather than something done at Iran's direction.
The lack of significant direct and immediate action by Hezbollah make me believe Iran didn't order this action. They would want maximum effect and a coordinated action, which this was not.
FWIW, I disagree. I think this was a classic case of the dog catching the car. Hammas thought they would kill a couple of jews and maybe take a hostage or two. They had no idea that their attack would work this well.
The consequences at this point are going to be horrific.
I think Hamas knew exactly what it is doing. Today world opinion is on Israel’s side. But Hamas knew Israel will respond and do so in a manner that will be deemed by many as “disproportionate.” Overtime, public opinion will shift. As pictures and stories of a flattened Gaza and the consequences to the Palestinians emerge.
Hamas then gets more backing not only among Arab nations , but in the West. (Particularly from a public relations, “hearts and souls” standpoint.)
I'll be watching to see how many "hearts and souls" will now warm up to the mentality of carving off the heads of infants and toddlers and raping their moms then killing their grandparents.
RE: Way OT: Israel - GK3 - 10-13-2023
(10-13-2023, 07:41 AM)lex24 Wrote:BigJohn043 dateline='[url=tel:1697167534' Wrote: 1697167534[/url]']
Goose dateline='[url=tel:1697157110' Wrote: 1697157110[/url]']
dabigv13 dateline='[url=tel:1697156316' Wrote: 1697156316[/url]']IMO it probably was a decision solely by Hamas. What Iran knew and when they knew it is IMO unclear. I don't think it was a "miscalculation". I think Hamas knew exactly what the result would be. This is an action that clearly was planned over a very long period of time. It wasn't done on impulse. Hamas wouldn't waste this action on a whim.
I am uncertain of Iran's involvement. It's certainly possible, they have some plausible motivations. But to me this smells more of a miscalculation by Hamas rather than something done at Iran's direction.
The lack of significant direct and immediate action by Hezbollah make me believe Iran didn't order this action. They would want maximum effect and a coordinated action, which this was not.
FWIW, I disagree. I think this was a classic case of the dog catching the car. Hammas thought they would kill a couple of jews and maybe take a hostage or two. They had no idea that their attack would work this well.
The consequences at this point are going to be horrific.
I think Hamas knew exactly what it is doing. Today world opinion is on Israel’s side. But Hamas knew Israel will respond and do so in a manner that will be deemed by many as “disproportionate.” Overtime, public opinion will shift. As pictures and stories of a flattened Gaza and the consequences to the Palestinians emerge.
Hamas then gets more backing not only among Arab nations , but in the West. (Particularly from a public relations, “hearts and souls” standpoint.)
Lex I think you are exactly right. These links support your hypothesis.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/what-saudi-israeli-deal-could-mean-palestinianshttps:
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/what-hamas-attack-means-israel-daniel-byman-alexander-palmer
Israel was caught napping and now it is in a very difficult place. Take action that in the long term reflect against it, or support its hard right members who want to take over the West Bank and kick out all non Israelis who live there. We also have an issue as a government as to how far to support Israel. It isn't as clear cut as it once was. Do we support the hard right government that wants to take over the West Bank and evict Palestineans from what has been their homes and force millions of people in North Gaza to leave to who knows where? A strong US support for these tactics will not pay dividends for us.
RE: Way OT: Israel - lex24 - 10-13-2023
gailtate dateline='[url=tel:1697209454' Wrote: 1697209454[/url]']
lex24 dateline='[url=tel:1697208100' Wrote: 1697208100[/url]']
BigJohn043 dateline='[url=tel:1697167534' Wrote: 1697167534[/url]']
Goose dateline='[url=tel:1697157110' Wrote: 1697157110[/url]']
dabigv13 dateline='[url=tel:1697156316' Wrote: 1697156316[/url]']IMO it probably was a decision solely by Hamas. What Iran knew and when they knew it is IMO unclear. I don't think it was a "miscalculation". I think Hamas knew exactly what the result would be. This is an action that clearly was planned over a very long period of time. It wasn't done on impulse. Hamas wouldn't waste this action on a whim.
I am uncertain of Iran's involvement. It's certainly possible, they have some plausible motivations. But to me this smells more of a miscalculation by Hamas rather than something done at Iran's direction.
The lack of significant direct and immediate action by Hezbollah make me believe Iran didn't order this action. They would want maximum effect and a coordinated action, which this was not.
FWIW, I disagree. I think this was a classic case of the dog catching the car. Hammas thought they would kill a couple of jews and maybe take a hostage or two. They had no idea that their attack would work this well.
The consequences at this point are going to be horrific.
I think Hamas knew exactly what it is doing. Today world opinion is on Israel’s side. But Hamas knew Israel will respond and do so in a manner that will be deemed by many as “disproportionate.” Overtime, public opinion will shift. As pictures and stories of a flattened Gaza and the consequences to the Palestinians emerge.
Hamas then gets more backing not only among Arab nations , but in the West. (Particularly from a public relations, “hearts and souls” standpoint.)
I'll be watching to see how many "hearts and souls" will now warm up to the mentality of carving off the heads of infants and toddlers and raping their moms then killing their grandparents.
To be clear, I wasn’t supporting/advocating etc. Just surmising as to what I think may happen. I hope I’m wrong.
At the end of the day, this is a horrific. So, I just hope and pray for a resolution with as little loss of life as possible.
RE: Way OT: Israel - dabigv13 - 10-13-2023
Less OT than I would like. Got a lot of dumb idiots at our alma mater.....
https://forward.com/news/564587/stanford-university-jewish-students-instructor-hamas/
Quote:An instructor at Stanford University has been suspended for what the president and provost called “identity-based targeting” of students in connection with the Israel-Gaza war.
Rabbi Dov Greenberg, director of the Chabad Stanford Jewish Center, said he was told by three students who were in the room that the instructor asked Jewish and Israeli students to identify themselves during a session for a required undergraduate course called “Civil, Liberal and Global Education.”
The teacher told the Jewish students to take their belongings, stand in a corner, and said, “This is what Israel does to the Palestinians,” Greenberg said, citing the student accounts. The instructor then asked, “How many people died in the Holocaust?” When a student answered, “Six million,” the lecturer said, “Colonizers killed more than 6 million. Israel is a colonizer.”
RE: Way OT: Israel - OutsiderFan - 10-13-2023
(10-13-2023, 08:29 AM)lex24 Wrote: At the end of the day, this is a horrific. So, I just hope and pray for a resolution with as little loss of life as possible.
I just don't want to hear anyone claiming either side has any moral high ground. They both are terrible and frankly deserve each other.
RE: Way OT: Israel - gailtate - 10-13-2023
(10-13-2023, 08:47 AM)dabigv13 Wrote: Less OT than I would like. Got a lot of dumb idiots at our alma mater.....
https://forward.com/news/564587/stanford-university-jewish-students-instructor-hamas/
Quote:An instructor at Stanford University has been suspended for what the president and provost called “identity-based targeting” of students in connection with the Israel-Gaza war.
Rabbi Dov Greenberg, director of the Chabad Stanford Jewish Center, said he was told by three students who were in the room that the instructor asked Jewish and Israeli students to identify themselves during a session for a required undergraduate course called “Civil, Liberal and Global Education.”
The teacher told the Jewish students to take their belongings, stand in a corner, and said, “This is what Israel does to the Palestinians,” Greenberg said, citing the student accounts. The instructor then asked, “How many people died in the Holocaust?” When a student answered, “Six million,” the lecturer said, “Colonizers killed more than 6 million. Israel is a colonizer.”
A palsied, antisemitic false equivalent if there ever was one. How can Stanford academician be such a tone-deaf knucklehead and how many of them are out there supposedly shaping minds and inspiring young people?! Not encouraging.
RE: Way OT: Israel - cardcrimson - 10-13-2023
(10-13-2023, 08:47 AM)dabigv13 Wrote: Less OT than I would like. Got a lot of dumb idiots at our alma mater.....
https://forward.com/news/564587/stanford-university-jewish-students-instructor-hamas/
Quote:An instructor at Stanford University has been suspended for what the president and provost called “identity-based targeting” of students in connection with the Israel-Gaza war.
Rabbi Dov Greenberg, director of the Chabad Stanford Jewish Center, said he was told by three students who were in the room that the instructor asked Jewish and Israeli students to identify themselves during a session for a required undergraduate course called “Civil, Liberal and Global Education.”
The teacher told the Jewish students to take their belongings, stand in a corner, and said, “This is what Israel does to the Palestinians,” Greenberg said, citing the student accounts. The instructor then asked, “How many people died in the Holocaust?” When a student answered, “Six million,” the lecturer said, “Colonizers killed more than 6 million. Israel is a colonizer.”
Incredibly disappointing. But somehow, not surprising. . . .
RE: Way OT: Israel - TrumpCard - 10-13-2023
Per the article, the instructor was a TA, not a faculty member, and the instructor suspended, which is appropriate. Have to give due to admin for at least taking some action here. Hopefully the admin’s response to the TA’s misguided lesson plan helped shape those young minds as well.
This is not to absolve Stanford’s administration of any myopia in the Israel/Palestinian conflict, but I think there are worse examples.
RE: Way OT: Israel - Goose - 10-13-2023
https://www.yahoo.com/news/why-guns-gone-quiet-israel-025309614.html
It appears Hezbollah is at least for now sitting this one out. It could be they are waiting for Israel to commit their ground forces in Gaza in order to cause maximum pressure when Hezbollah does move, so we can't yet be sure. To some extent this "calm" supports the idea Iran was not the one who "ordered" the Hamas attack. Since Hamas is Sunni and both Hezbollah and Iran are Shia it also might highlight an inherent distance between Iran and Hamas. They probably do not fully trust each other. Iran may very well regard Hamas as "useful idiots" who stepped out of line. That would be very "good" for the world if so, as it lessens the probability of this conflict spreading. Right now, one "world actor", Russia, really wants this conflict to spread and suck all the oxygen out of the support for Ukraine. The US needs to make sure that doesn't happen, for many reasons.
RE: Way OT: Israel - lex24 - 10-13-2023
Goose dateline='[url=tel:1697215899' Wrote: 1697215899[/url]']
https://www.yahoo.com/news/why-guns-gone-quiet-israel-025309614.html
It appears Hezbollah is at least for now sitting this one out. It could be they are waiting for Israel to commit their ground forces in Gaza in order to cause maximum pressure when Hezbollah does move, so we can't yet be sure. To some extent this "calm" supports the idea Iran was not the one who "ordered" the Hamas attack. Since Hamas is Sunni and both Hezbollah and Iran are Shia it also might highlight an inherent distance between Iran and Hamas. They probably do not fully trust each other. Iran may very well regard Hamas as "useful idiots" who stepped out of line. That would be very "good" for the world if so, as it lessens the probability of this conflict spreading. Right now, one "world actor", Russia, really wants this conflict to spread and suck all the oxygen out of the support for Ukraine. The US needs to make sure that doesn't happen, for many reasons.
“The US needs to make sure that doesn't happen…”
How? Curious on your thoughts.
RE: Way OT: Israel - Goose - 10-13-2023
(10-13-2023, 10:52 AM)lex24 Wrote: How? Curious on your thoughts.I didn't say it would be simple :-). One thing the US should do is make sure that we ourselves aren't "all Israel all the time". We need to periodically make press releases on how Ukraine is using US weapons. These releases needn't be "important" in themselves, but it will at least show the administration and the military aren't totally focused on Israel. It also might be a good time to send the new Chairman of the Joint Chiefs on a visit to Ukraine. Show we are still paying attention. I would also suggest some public focus meetings with NATO allies on alleviating the artillery shell crisis and on supporting F-16 operations in Ukraine. In these two cases, there is real work that needs to be done and right now it is very ad-hoc. The artillery shell situation is pretty dire because nobody, us or our NATO allies, has really prioritized "fixing" this issue QUICKLY. Tomorrow isn't soon enough.
Making this happen would be a big statement. It doesn't require congressional approval, which is fortunate because we and many of the European nations have a legislative stability problem at least in the short term. The German coalition government is on somewhat shaky ground. We need to ask them to do something they actually can do, and speeding up shell production is one of them. It is OK, maybe even desirable, that these efforts create a little controversy. It would displace the middle east from the front page occasionally, which is our goal. It would also solve a real problem.
The F-16 effort needs to be prioritized to ensure when Ukraine has pilots that they actually have enough planes and enough appropriate ordinance to be effective. It is totally unclear to me the current efforts can yield this. A very public effort here will solve two problems. It will create press and it will also hopefully provide a necessary capability.
I wanted to add that the Biden administration should announce F-16s to Türkiye in order to get Sweden in, but I am afraid that can't happen without legislation. Getting this done at present is fraught with difficulty. I am not sure if the House has to sign off on it. If it is "only" the senate, it might be possible. If it is possible, it should be done. It might also be good to announce something for Greece as well. That will make it clear that we still regard Türkiye as an important ally. That is a side effect that may help stability in the area a bit, but also concentrate on keeping Türkiye at least neutral regarding Ukraine and the war. The publicity of getting Sweden at least a lot closer to being in NATO will obviously remind the world about Ukraine.
That's all I got :-).
RE: Way OT: Israel - OutsiderFan - 10-13-2023
(10-13-2023, 09:51 AM)Goose Wrote: Right now, one "world actor", Russia, really wants this conflict to spread and suck all the oxygen out of the support for Ukraine. The US needs to make sure that doesn't happen, for many reasons.
This is why I am inclined to believe that ultimately, Russia is behind the Hamas attack on Israel. Nobody benefits from this nonsense more than Putin, and it really hurts Zelensky's efforts to rally support to Ukraine, so the Occam's razor answer to what is behind it is Putin.
I've concluded I don't want any more U.S. support of Israel, and want Ukraine getting everything needed to prevail against Russia, but imagine I'm in a significant minority on that position.
RE: Way OT: Israel - TrumpCard - 10-13-2023
Quiet diplomacy with Israel might help prevent further spread of the conflict. In my view, the U.S. should be, and is, standing shoulder to shoulder to Israel, rather than dictating to Israel what it is "permitted" to do in response to Hamas' attack. Israel won't obey anyway due to its accurate perception that its own vital interests are at stake. But the U.S. can convey the limits of the U.S.' own commitment to support Israel. For example, the U.S. could explain that it is not going to get involved militarily if Hezbollah were to attack Israel's north, and therefore, Israel needs to make sure it leaves sufficient troops in that area to defend its own territory from attack. If Israel were to leave a visible troop presence in the north, that would provide more credible deterrence than the U.S. could provide because potential aggressors might not believe U.S. professions that it will intervene militarily in Israel's defense. Also, if Israel were to leave those troops in the north, Israel would have fewer troops to use in the south, potentially reducing its flexibility to expand the scope of its attack. A narrower attack, and fewer casualties, would reduce the risk of a third party being sufficiently motivated to enter the conflict.
(10-13-2023, 12:13 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: This is why I am inclined to believe that ultimately, Russia is behind the Hamas attack on Israel. Nobody benefits from this nonsense more than Putin, and it really hurts Zelensky's efforts to rally support to Ukraine, so the Occam's razor answer to what is behind it is Putin.
I've concluded I don't want any more U.S. support of Israel, and want Ukraine getting everything needed to prevail against Russia, but imagine I'm in a significant minority on that position.
I recognize that the statement above is not actually, "I think the U.S. should do everything possible to deter military aggression by Russia and its allies, unless the victims are Jews." But I honestly read it that way.
RE: Way OT: Israel - dabigv13 - 10-13-2023
The US should have a short leash with Israel when it comes to military aid. Israel is flattening Gaza right now with indiscriminate bombing. I understand why they are doing that, but there is no way they are appropriately discriminating in their target selection when they are dropping more bombs in a day than we did in a month in Mosul.
Israel is an ally, and its understandable that Biden and US leadership will be pretty unequivocal in their public support. But I hope that behind the scenes they are telling Israel that if they don't respect the laws of war their aid will dry up. All the Palestinians with dead family members and no prospects are going to be the reason this violence continues in the decades ahead, so it really is in Israel's interest to be more selective than they are now (and the IDF are not being subtle in their public statements that they basically view any target in Gaza as legitimate.).
RE: Way OT: Israel - OutsiderFan - 10-13-2023
(10-13-2023, 12:38 PM)TrumpCard Wrote: I recognize that the statement above is not actually, "I think the U.S. should do everything possible to deter military aggression by Russia and its allies, unless the victims are Jews." But I honestly read it that way.
Let me be 100% clear. I DGAF about religion or ethnicity. I'm an atheist and don't believe in "race" as a concept since DNA has proven there is no difference between humans other than how their DNA structures are programmed.
Without getting into all the reasons, I've concluded both "sides" are terrible. Much like I loathe Putin for screwing around with Ukraine and making the world pay the price in addition to Ukrainians, I'm disgusted with the Israeli and Palestinian sides for fighting each other and distracting, even involving the rest of the world with their bullshit.
If it were up to me, I'd build a 10,000 ft wall around the entire region of conflict, lock those who want to fight inside with each other and let them duel to the death or figure out a way to co-exist. Just tired of both of them causing problems for their fellow citizens and the rest of the world.
RE: Way OT: Israel - TrumpCard - 10-13-2023
(10-13-2023, 12:45 PM)dabigv13 Wrote: The US should have a short leash with Israel when it comes to military aid. Israel is flattening Gaza right now with indiscriminate bombing. I understand why they are doing that, but there is no way they are appropriately discriminating in their target selection when they are dropping more bombs in a day than we did in a month in Mosul.
Israel is an ally, and its understandable that Biden and US leadership will be pretty unequivocal in their public support. But I hope that behind the scenes they are telling Israel that if they don't respect the laws of war their aid will dry up. All the Palestinians with dead family members and no prospects are going to be the reason this violence continues in the decades ahead, so it really is in Israel's interest to be more selective than they are now (and the IDF are not being subtle in their public statements that they basically view any target in Gaza as legitimate.).
As a practical reality, this is not U.S. policy. The State Dept just issued a memo instructing staff to refrain from calling for calm or de-escalation: https://www.huffpost.com/entry/state-department-internal-emails-gaza-israel_n_65296395e4b0a304ff6ff95d
As a normative matter, there is little reason for the U.S. to stop providing defensive military aid to Israel since that only saves lives. The interceptors for the Iron Dome are the most important form of aid Israel receives, and I do not foresee the U.S. withholding that. The U.S. might threaten to revoke other military aid, but I question whether such threats would be deemed credible given U.S. public opinion and given broad support for Israel in Congress and in the White House. I also question whether such threats would substantially alter Israeli military policy right now.
As someone who has family and friends in Israel, I can tell you that the Israeli public overwhelmingly believed that there was no prospect for an end to Palestinian terrorism even before the latest attack. In other words, exercising restraint merely for the sake of trying to convince the Palestinian government to stop supporting terrorism was already perceived as a futile endeavor. Nevertheless, prior to the recent attacks, there were mixed views in Israel regarding the ethics and/or prudence of heavy handed military responses. In light of recent events, however, there is little sentiment in Israel that more restraint is warranted, and I don't think U.S. pressure would alter that sentiment.
Edit: Also, the U.S. has a vital interest that Israel do its best to recover the American citizens whom Hamas is holding hostage and likely torturing.
RE: Way OT: Israel - dabigv13 - 10-13-2023
The alternative to obeying the laws of war and showing restraint to civilians is ethnic cleansing. If Israel could kill off every Palestinian they would have less terrorism, but they certainly would not be able to do that even if they tried.
I think Israel would like it if the US gives them a blind eye. I think that would be bad for Israel, the US, and many innocents. I don't think the "practical reality" is necessarily as you said, and it shouldn't be.
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