Women's Tennis 2024 - Printable Version
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RE: Women's Tennis: Spring Season Around the Corner! - ColoradoTree - 02-24-2024
I've been trying to log on to comment, but for the past day or so, it's been saying that the server couldn't be contacted, so no dice! I kept a running commentary in a draft, though, so I'll see if I can copy and paste that here.
Got absolutely worked in doubles, despite Ma and Yepifanova dominating on Court 2.
In singles, Ma and Hui went up early breaks at 2-0, but they both then lost three in a row. The other matches started on serve, though Yepifanova and Xu went down early breaks. Blake was down 1-2 with Zeynalova serving up 40-0, but she fought back for the break to get it back on serve early. After being tied 1-1, Yepifanova lost five straight games to drop the first set.
Roughly midway through the first sets, Yepifanova had already lost hers, Xu was down a break, and the other four matches were on serve. Not looking ideal for a team that needs four wins from singles. And just after that, Ma was broken to go down 4-2 and Hui was broken to go down 5-3, meaning Texas was on track to get first sets in four singles matches. Stanford needed a momentum shift, and soon.
Then Xu broke back to 3-3 and held for 4-3. And Blokhina broke to go up 4-3 and held for 5-3 before losing a deciding point to get to 5-4. And Hui broke on deciding point to get back on serve at 4-5 down and then held at deciding point in the next game to level it at 5-5 before breaking again on deciding point to go up 6-5. With Yepifanova in freefall (already down 2-0 in her second set) and Ma down 5-2, it looked like we'd need each one of those three matches in the end. Meanwhile, Blake was trading holds on Court 1, but finally broke through with a break to go up 5-3 and held on deciding point to take Stanford's first first set at 6-3. And Blokhina followed suit with a 6-5 win of her own. Some hope of life.
Ma then held to get back to 4-5 down, while Xu went the other way--she had break points to go up 5-3, but couldn't do it and then was broken herself at love, and all of a sudden her opponent was serving up 5-4, and she held. Darn. That's two first sets for the Longhorns.
Hui couldn't hold and was forced to a first-set tiebreaker but she shook off any frustration and won the first six points before finally taking it 7-3. That's three first sets! Meanwhile, Ma had gotten herself to a deciding point on her own serve, down 4-5. With a whole heckuva lot hanging on that point, Ma took it for 5-5! Ma then broke to go up 6-5, but on the next court over, Yepifanova was trying to stay alive with her opponent one game away, and she held to delay the inevitable there.
But meanwhile, the second sets weren't going our way. When Ma finally got her first set, 7-5, we were already down a break in the second sets in each of the other three matches where we'd taken the first set, so getting four first sets was starting to seem like a hollow achievement. And Texas finally made it 2-0 with a comprehensive 6-1, 6-2 dismantling of Yepifanova by Rapolu.
At that point, this is how the scoreboard looked:
1. Blake leads 6-3, 0-5
2. Ma leads 7-5, 1-0 (up a break)
4. Blokhina leads 6-4, 0-3
5. Hui leads 7-6, 2-1 (on serve)
6. Xu trails 4-6, 0-2
We needed four of those five, so either it was our first-set winners turning it around in the second (or, if not, finding it again in the third) or it was Xu fighting for--and then winning--a third set. More nearly, it was looking like we were going to need wins from Ma and Hui and hope to scrape two of the other three. But despite being Stanford's first to win a first set, Blake was nowhere in the second, losing games very quickly.
We needed Blake and Blokhina to stop losing games so quickly.
But Ma seemed to be taking control, quickly going up 3-0. And Xu seemed to right the ship, winning two straight to get her second set to 2-2, though she was then broken for 2-3. And Hui was still on serve, up 3-2 now.
On the other hand, Blake ate a bagel in the second set, meaning she was first to get to a third. So, if you're Texas at this point, you realize you just need two more wins--you're up a set on 6, you just forced a third on 1 by winning 6-0, and another bagel to force a third seemed in reach on 4. At this point, you absolutely would've preferred being Texas, despite only having won two first sets.
But Ma kept winning, going up 4-1. Hui broke to go up 4-2 on 5 and then held for 5-2. Blokhina had gone from 0-4 down in the second to 3-4. Xu broke back for 3-3 and held for 4-3. And after a long first game of the third set, Blake held for 1-0 and then broke more easily for 2-0.
Hui was the first Stanford win, taking her match 7-6, 6-3. And seconds later, Blokhina got her second set level at 4-4, Blake took a 3-0 lead in her third set, and Ma went up 5-1 in her second. Here's how things looked at that point:
Texas 2, Stanford 1:
1. Blake leads 6-3, 0-6, 3-0 (up a double break)
2. Ma leads 7-5, 5-1
4. Blokhina leads 6-4, 4-4
6. Xu trails 4-6, 5-3
Then Xu served for the second set but was broken. Blokhina's run of games finally ended as Chavatipon went up 5-4. And Blake gave back one of those break points. But then Ma made it 2-2 with a 7-5, 6-1 win on Court 2!
Blokina got it back to 5-5, and despite being down 15-40 in that game, Xu got it to deciding point and then broke for the set, 6-4! So with three matches left to play and both teams needing two of them, here's how things stood:
1. Blake leads 6-3, 0-6, 3-2 (up a break but just lost two in a row)
4. Blokhina leads 6-4, 5-5
6. Xu tied 4-6, 6-4, 0-0
It's a tiebreaker on Court 4, and Blake holds for 4-2.
Now 5-3 for Blake! Xu is down 0-2 in her third, though.
Angelica Blake comes through, and it's 3-2 Stanford! Blake eats a bagel but takes the third set 6-4.
Blokhina loses her tiebreaker but charges to a 3-1 lead in the third. Meanwhile, Xu fought back to 3-3 in her third before being broken for 3-4 down.
The two remaining matches are going in opposite directions, as Blokhina goes up a double break at 4-1 while Xu goes down 3-5. But we just need one of those, while Texas needs both.
Xu then held at love to get to 4-5 down, so Ovrootsky will serve for that match next. Can Xu extend it? There have been a whole truckload of service breaks in that match, so why not another one? And then Chavatipon broke to cut Blokhina's lead to 4-2. Can Blokhina break back and put herself one game away?
Neither, it turns out. Xu got it to deciding point on Ovrootsky's serve, but she lost it, and with it the match. And Blokhina's lead was cut to 4-3. What seemed like a glide path to victory about 20 minutes ago has now turned to a knife's edge.
But Blokhina breaks to go up 5-3 and she will serve for the whole shebang right now.
0-15. Then 0-30. Then 15-30. Then a double fault makes it 15-40. The pressure is getting to Blokhina as she can't get a first serve in. But she wins a terrific rally on second serve to get to 30-40. And a forehand down the line for 40-40! Deciding point in the decider! And a Blokhina shot hits the line but the umpire calls it out and Stanford coaches are livid. But it is what it is, and Chavatipon will serve to level the third set now. Blokhina has broken her a bunch today, so one more time will do nicely.
15-0. Then 15-all. Then 30-15. And 40-15. Sigh. 30-40 as a Chavatiopon forehand goes long. And it's deciding point again as she sprays another one wide. First serve is long. But Chavatipon steps into a cross-court winner and we're all level at 5-5. You can't say that Blokhina didn't have all the chances in the world to close this thing out....
Blokhina goes up 40-15 on her serve at 5-5, but Chavatipon gets it to 40-30. But Chavatipon's forehand is just barely wide and Blokhina is up 6-5.
15-0. Then 15-15. And 15-30! Ugh, 30-30. Two points away from either a win or a third-set tiebreaker. Chavatipon sends it wide and it's 30-40! Two chances here for Blokhina! After a long rally, Chavatipon sends it long and Stanford wins!!!
That is a win that is going to keep on giving in the rankings this year. Texas is outstanding, and Stanford just got past them. We should all be thrilled that the scheduling gods allowed this match to be at Stanford this year, because that couldn't have been any closer.
RE: Women's Tennis: Spring Season Around the Corner! - ColoradoTree - 02-24-2024
So, let's talk about what worked well, and what didn't.
On the big plus side, let's look first at Ma and Hui. They both had difficult first sets but then cruised in the second to give us a much-needed boost. The match was in a very delicate place, teetering on the edge, and without that shot in the arm those two wins gave us, it's very easy to imagine Blake or Blokhina not finding the extra gear they needed in the third set.
Blake and Blokhina are a mixed bag. In doubles, they got smoked, continuing a worrying recent trend where they've had poor performances at the top of the doubles lineup. And in singles, they both had significant hiccups. Now, you can have hiccups against excellent players, of course, but eating a bagel is no mere hiccup. I mean, it's amazing that Blake could shake off such a disastrous second set and still find a way to close out her match, so on one hand, it's amazing. To dig out of a hole that big is truly impressive. But, uh, why dig yourself that hole in the first place? As for Blokhina, she had more than a little trouble finishing off that match, but bottom line, she finished it off. And to get that result against a player like Chavatipon, who mostly played #2 for the Longhorns last year and has been a fixture in the rankings for the past three years, is really impressive. Especially with the weight of the team result hanging over it. Serious kudos to her.
As for what didn't go well? Doubles with Blake/Blokhina and Hui/Xu, for one. Yeesh. And then in singles, you've got the mildly disappointing (Xu frittering away opportunities in her first set and then failing to get it done in the third against a player she should beat) and the downright horrific (Yepifanova's absolute no-show against Rapolu). Now, Rapolu is a good player, but Sasha is too dang good to lay an egg like that. Let's hope it's a one-off, but the truth is, we've seen some frustrating results from her so far this year.
As far as the rankings go, I'd normally say this result should see us climb the rankings. But Oklahoma State's resume is still ahead of ours, and Michigan just beat N.C. State, so that's another really valuable win that might keep them ahead of us.
We were right back at it the next day against UCSB, which is a good team but by no means someone we should struggle to beat. I'd wondered whether some of the players would take a day off in order to get some rest, particularly Blokhina, Xu, and Blake, whose matches went longest. But Blokhina and Xu played, with Hui resting in both singles and doubles and Blake taking singles off, meaning Xu partnered with Houghton in doubles, Xu bumped up to the #4 line in singles, Yu entered the lineup at #5, and Houghton at #6. Also interesting was that we saw Ma/Yepifanova move to the top doubles line, with Blake/Blokhina sliding back down to 2. That change might not be permanent, of course, but it certainly seems warranted based on recent results.
So it's Ma at Court 1 that gets the only real threat in UCSB's lineup, #62 Amelia Honer, though Camille Kiss is also a decent player. But Yepifanova shouldn't have any trouble with her. Of course, whether she does--particularly in light of her worrying recent form--is another question.
Stanford took the doubles point without much difficulty, and while Ma and Yepifanova struggled on the top two courts, the other four were off to the races as UCSB just doesn't have the depth to compete.
While Yepifanova lost her first set in a tiebreaker and Ma was tied up at 5-5 in hers, the other four matches all saw Stanford up a set and at least a break in the second, with the only question which three of those would be fastest to the win.
Xu was first, shaking off yesterday's disappointing with a 6-1, 6-0 win on Court 4, while Blokhina followed soon after with a 6-1, 6-1 win on Court 3 that made it 3-0 to Stanford. Ma won her first set in a tiebreaker, while Yepifanova seemingly remembered that she's good at tennis and was taking control of her second set. Yu was up 4-1, but Houghton would have first crack at the clincher, up 5-1. And it was indeed Houghton getting the clincher with a 6-1, 6-1 win on Court 6.
But it looks like they'll play it out. Yu didn't take much longer to make it 5-0 Stanford with a 6-3, 6-1 win of her own.
Yepifanova won her second set 6-3, and then they played a 10-point match tiebreaker (which remains the absolute dumbest way to decide a match, but no one asked me). Yepifanova lost that, but if they'd played out a full third set, I have no doubt that she would've won, the way she'd been playing. But tiebreakers are weird. But a loss is a loss, and if she didn't want to take a bad loss to a lesser player, she should've played better and won the first set. She showed signs of life today, but yeah, she's not herself right now. Some very high highs this season, but some very low lows, too.
At that point, Ma was down an early break in her second and had just held for 2-3 down. But then she broke as Honer double-faulted on break point to get it back on serve, and she held to go up 4-3.
You should all watch Ma play a match sometime. Not only is she amazing at tennis, but it's kind of hilarious how slowly she moves in between points. Some players hustle or bounce. Not Ma. Not one bit of wasted energy. Just absolutely plods and shuffles in between points. It's pretty entertaining. She's not quite as slow in between points on her opponent's serve, which is sporting of her, but on her serve? Molasses. Love it.
Anyway, Honer held for 4-4 and then broke Ma to go up 5-4, so now Ma will have to break back to stay in the set. Come on, Connie! Close it out!
Ma held for 6-5, so let's hope she can break now and end this thing!
Aaaaand it's another tiebreaker....
She goes down 0-2, but then wins 4 straight as they change ends. But Honer gets it to 4-4 before Ma holds for 5-4. Ma had a match point on her serve, up 6-5, but she sprayed a forehand long and it's 6-6 as they change ends again.
Ma takes the breaker 8-6, and she wins a "straight sets" match, 7-6, 7-6. Great, great tennis match, and a great win that makes the final score 6-1 Stanford. Not much to complain about in this one, except for, you know, Yepifanova.
RE: Women's Tennis: Spring Season Around the Corner! - TheFarm07 - 02-24-2024
Thank you ColoradoTree. The CardBoard's outage made me miss your in-depth analyses even more, especially after such a big win against a top team like Texas.
Anything specific you are seeing from Yepifanova that is the cause of her slump? I only saw bits and pieces when they played the ITA Indoors a couple weekends ago.
RE: Women's Tennis: Spring Season Around the Corner! - ColoradoTree - 02-26-2024
(02-24-2024, 05:45 PM)TheFarm07 Wrote: Thank you ColoradoTree. The CardBoard's outage made me miss your in-depth analyses even more, especially after such a big win against a top team like Texas.
Anything specific you are seeing from Yepifanova that is the cause of her slump? I only saw bits and pieces when they played the ITA Indoors a couple weekends ago.
You know, I haven't watched her matches all that closely, so I really can't say for sure. She had an absolutely outstanding ITA Indoors (which was just a couple of weeks ago), and before this last weekend, the only loss she'd taken this spring was a very close three-setter (7-6 in the third) to then-#26 Kupres of A&M, so certainly nothing to complain about there. She struggled a little bit at the end of the fall season, dropping a match to Cal's Hannah Viller Moeller that I don't think she should lose, and then getting upset in the hidden dual at Hawaii. But fall season is another beast entirely, and I tend to shrug off weird results there if the dual season starts well otherwise, which it absolutely had for Yepifanova.
So, a couple ways of looking at this. On one hand, it's just two losses. Just one bad weekend! She's still a player capable of knocking off just about anyone in the country. She missed the match against UOP, and perhaps that was because she'd pushed a little too hard in her win against then-#5 Kajuru of Oklahoma State, so this past weekend could be that we're just seeing a tired/sore Yepifanova rather than something more worrisome. And why even mention that loss to Viller Moeller when she was clearly in some great form that week, as she knocked off Ma in three sets the next round? Sometimes players get hot.
And then there's the pessimistic view. She seems ensconced at the #3 spot after holding down #1 for much of last year, so there's some reduced expectations already baked into the season. And it's not so much that she lost to UT's Rapolu, it's that she got annihilated. Plus, rather than bouncing back after a poor performance against UT like Xu did, she continued to struggle against someone she should beat.
(A quick aside: Xu's loss to Texas was also disappointing, but I loved her response. While Xu can struggle against players that, while not quite on her level, aren't all that far off, she also has the ability to consistently and quickly beat players that are a step further down. I still think Xu's place in the lineup is far from secure, and if she doesn't start dominating at #6, then she might find herself out of the lineup, but at least she responded well.)
I'm much more inclined to the former right now. I think she'll figure it out just fine. I still think she's our second-best player, but I've always thought that, even when she was playing ahead of Ma and Blake. We've got a nice final tune-up against St. Mary's this weekend before the final Pac-12 season gets started in the desert against ASU and Arizona the following weekend, so let's wait and see. ASU is #37 and Arizona is #42, so they're nice tests.
And we'll talk more about this next week, but ASU is legitimately dangerous despite a middling record. They've scheduled hard, with 4-0 losses to both Oklahoma State and Ohio State on their resume already, plus a 4-1 loss to San Diego (that was about to be 4-2 with the final match even in the third, so it could've drawn closer). But those scorelines don't tell the whole story, as the doubles point against Oklahoma State had tiebreakers on all three courts, and ASU either led or was going the distance in the other three courts. So, if doubles goes the other way, that could've easily been a 4-3 match either way. And ASU's 4-0 loss to Ohio State was in Columbus, but they just beat Ohio State 4-1 in Tempe (though the other two singles matches were tight in the third set, so closer than the scoreline indicates). So that match in Tempe next weekend is certainly not one to take lightly. But with 2 matches against Ohio State and 1 each against San Diego, Oklahoma State, and UC Davis, that's 5 matches we can look to for comps on potentially what to expect.
As for Arizona, the only comp we have is Maryland, who we beat 4-0 behind a dominant doubles showing and easy wins from 3, 4, and 5, with Xu a game away from making it 5-0 at 6, while Ma had won her first set 6-2 but was on serve in the second against Liu, and Blake had lost her first set 7-5 to Miranda but was on serve in her second. Meanwhile, Arizona beat them 4-2, also winning doubles handily and getting easy wins on Courts 1 and 6, losing on 2 and 4, and with Court 3 looking pretty tight. Another one we can't look past, but on paper, they don't appear to be quite as dangerous as ASU.
RE: Women's Tennis: Spring Season Around the Corner! - ColoradoTree - 02-26-2024
Now we know why Hui was out of the lineup for UCSB--she flew down to San Diego to get ready for the WTA's San Diego Open, where she got a main draw wild card as a local kid.
She'll play 7th-seeded Donna Vekic in the first round, likely tomorrow sometime. Vekic is currently ranked #28 in the world and peaked at #19 a few years ago. Fair to say that this will be the toughest match Hui has ever played, so don't read too much into it if she gets double-bageled! But even just the experience should be fantastic for her, and it'll only benefit Stanford for the rest of the season.
RE: Women's Tennis: Spring Season Around the Corner! - M T - 02-26-2024
Flu has been going around the WBB team the past couple of weeks. And even when the players were managing to play, their performance was clearly impacted. There is no reason to believe the flu was limited to that one team. Pretty much all of January and February, there were a lot of respiratory illnesses in the area. (Stanford SCAN analysis of Stanford's CODIGA wastewater plant.) So, a bad weekend or two could be the result of a sick week.
The good news is that all of them seem to be dropping to quite low levels.
RE: Women's Tennis: Spring Season Around the Corner! - ColoradoTree - 02-26-2024
Not sure why it took so long to release, but the Indoor Nationals all-tournament team was just announced--Ma was the #2 singles selection, Yepifanova was the pick at #3 singles, and the pair of them were the selection at #2 doubles. Congrats to the two of them!
And good call on flu being a possible culprit here, M T.
RE: Women's Tennis: Spring Season Around the Corner! - Sakibomb25 - 02-26-2024
(02-26-2024, 12:10 PM)ColoradoTree Wrote: Not sure why it took so long to release, but the Indoor Nationals all-tournament team was just announced--Ma was the #2 singles selection, Yepifanova was the pick at #3 singles, and the pair of them were the selection at #2 doubles. Congrats to the two of them!
And good call on flu being a possible culprit here, M T.
As aways, your updates and insights on the team are always appreciated! I still have hope for the team to do well, but Yepifanova and Xu have really got to step it up, especially as upperclassmen.
I was happy Blake got the win and while the bagel was concerning, she won and fought back and that's what matters. People can have stretches of a match where they are horrible, but what really matters is how they finish. So kudos to her (and Blokhina, of course).
RE: Women's Tennis: Spring Season Around the Corner! - ColoradoTree - 02-26-2024
(02-26-2024, 03:06 PM)Sakibomb25 Wrote:(02-26-2024, 12:10 PM)ColoradoTree Wrote: Not sure why it took so long to release, but the Indoor Nationals all-tournament team was just announced--Ma was the #2 singles selection, Yepifanova was the pick at #3 singles, and the pair of them were the selection at #2 doubles. Congrats to the two of them!
And good call on flu being a possible culprit here, M T.
As aways, your updates and insights on the team are always appreciated! I still have hope for the team to do well, but Yepifanova and Xu have really got to step it up, especially as upperclassmen.
I was happy Blake got the win and while the bagel was concerning, she won and fought back and that's what matters. People can have stretches of a match where they are horrible, but what really matters is how they finish. So kudos to her (and Blokhina, of course).
Thanks! I was kinda bummed that the CardBoard was out during the Texas match--hopefully lots of folks would've been watching and it was exactly the kind of match that makes a casual fan into a diehard. Momentum swings, individual heroics, and just darn good tennis.
And I similarly have high hopes. This team always gets better as the year goes on. It's like clockwork under Lele. So, I have no doubt that Yepifanova will be just fine, and if Xu doesn't find a higher gear to dominate at #6, then I'm confident Yu will step in and not miss a beat. Usually players of Yu's caliber are consistent contributors, but this is a particularly deep Stanford team. And you know, if Lele did play Yu over Xu for a couple of matches, perhaps that would be precisely the motivation Xu needed to raise her level. This is a very hard lineup to make, and it should similarly be a hard lineup in which to stay.
RE: Women's Tennis: Spring Season Around the Corner! - ColoradoTree - 02-27-2024
In the latest ITA rankings, Stanford climbed to #2, just squeaking past Michigan. The new Top 25 is below, plus any teams on our current schedule, followed by a little ranking math discussion.
1. Oklahoma State (L, 2-4, neutral)
2. Stanford
3. Michigan
4. UNC
5. UVA
6. Texas (W, 4-3, home)
7. Pepperdine (Apr. 5, home)
8. USC (Mar. 30, home)
9. Ohio State (W, 4-1, neutral)
10. NC State
11. Georgia
12. Auburn
13. Alabama
14. South Carolina
15. Oklahoma
16. San Diego (W, 5-2, away)
17. Cal (Apr. 19, away)
18. Duke
19. Florida (W, 4-0, neutral)
20. Tennessee
21. Texas A&M (W, 4-3, neutral)
22. Miami
23. Arizona State (Mar. 8, away)
24. Wisconsin
25. Columbia
**
29. Washington (Apr. 14, away)
34. Arizona (Mar. 9, away)
36. UCLA (Mar. 29, home)
41. Utah (Mar. 24, home)
50. Oregon (Apr. 7, home)
54. Colorado (W, 4-1, home; Mar. 23, home)
65. Maryland (W, 5-0, home)
71. UC Santa Barbara (W, 6-1, home)
Opponents currently unranked: Washington State (Apr. 12, away); UC Davis (W, 7-0, home); Pacific (W, 6-1, home); St. Mary's (Mar. 2, home)
As a quick ranking math reminder, the formula goes like this:
CountWinPts / (#ofCountableMatches + LossPoints).
In other words, the total number of points you have from your countable wins is divided by the number of countable matches, but the denominator increases with every loss.
Win Points
The number of countable wins in the rankings changes as the season progresses. I can't seem to locate the current year's rankings manual, but assuming it's not too different from past years, right now we're looking at our best 5 wins counting for our ranking, and that'll go up week by week in March until it holds steady at 9 for all of April and then it'll be 10 for the rankings that are used for NCAAs. So, we care about our best 5 now and what our best 10 wins could be by season's end. You get 106 points for beating the #1 team, 102 for beating #2, 98 for beating #3, 94 for beating #4, 91 for beating #5, 88 for beating #6, and so on. The spread between teams gradually shrinks, going from 4 at the top to 3 at the back end of the top 10, to 2 from 9-15, and 1 from 16-50, and then it goes down by 1 after every 2 teams. So, a win over #25 is worth 57 points, a win over #50 is worth 32, a win over #75 is worth 20, and so on and so forth.
Loss Points
Hypothetically, if you're undefeated at the end of the year, your ten best wins are divided by 10 to get your average. But if you've taken a loss to a top 5 team, your ten best wins are divided by 10.1 to get your ranking average. But if your one loss was a horrific upset loss to, say, the #101 team in the country, your ten best wins are divided by 11.2 to get your average. In other words, the ranking system cares about quality wins first and foremost, you don't get punished much for losses to highly-ranked teams, but you get hammered for taking bad losses. All in all, a pretty good system that rewards aggressive scheduling.
Right now, we've got wins over #6, #9, #16 (away), #19, and #21, but right now our record gets the benefit of beating Texas as a #4, since that's what they were last week, rather than #6, which is what they are this week. So, for next week's rankings, our win over Texas will be worth slightly less. And our next-best win that isn't currently counting drops way down, to #54 Colorado, so once the formula starts counting 6 wins rather than 5, expect our ranking to drop a bit. And right now, our five best wins are divided by 5.1 rather than 5 because of the loss to Oklahoma State.
Compare that to Oklahoma State, who right now has wins over #2, #3, #3 again since they've already beaten Michigan twice, #6, and #7, with a win over #9 as their next-best not currently counting, and a win over #12 after that. But they don't have super valuable wins remaining, as Texas and Oklahoma are the only Big 12 teams that will get them valuable points. So they'll be counting some wins in the 20s at season's end. (Of course, so will we, and we won't have the benefit of the top 5 wins that the Pokes have, so they'll very likely stay ahead of us.)
Wait, Why Do We Care?
Because a few years back, the NCAA moved to a super regional system for tennis, meaning only the top 8 teams make it to the final site. Before then, the top 16 teams went, so the main thing was to make sure you were in the top 16 by season's end, as then you'd get to host your regional. And Stanford's model of scheduling relatively lightly was good enough to get us in the low teens, and we've won national championships in the past decade as the national #12 and #15 seeds. But now we need to be in the top 8 to make sure we don't have to play a road super regional to a top team, so the difference between finishing at #8 vs. finishing at #9 is now very meaningful.
OK, back to Stanford. What's that mean for us?
Well, we have one loss that is the least-damaging loss you can take. And we have two more Top 10 teams on the schedule in USC and Pepperdine (and maybe we could get USC again at the Pac-12 tournament), so that's five potential Top 10 wins. Cal and ASU loom as potential Top 25 wins, too, so the path is there to have 10 wins from the Top 25, including the conference tournament. And it's important to remember that your win points are based on the current ranking of that team, not what they were when you beat them. So, we don't get 102 points for our win over A&M because they were #2 then, we get 61 points because they're #21 now. But the higher they climb, the more valuable that win will become. So, we are all now very big fans of San Diego, Texas A&M, Florida, Ohio State, and Texas. We want Oklahoma State to stay ranked highly so our loss hurts us least. Basically, we want our opponents to do as well as possible in their other matches. But that Pepperdine match is crucial.
And there will also be some wild swings as teams who have struggled so far do well in conference play and rack up good wins. UNC will be top 3 by season's end, and no one will want to play them. Right now, UCLA is #36, but that's because they have only one good win (5-2 over Texas) against three losses (all to good teams--4-3 to Oklahoma State, 4-0 to Ohio State, and 4-0 to Duke). UCLA is incredibly dangerous, as they have the talent to beat us, but beating them won't be super valuable to us, while losing to them will make a big dent. UCLA might not have ten great wins by the end of the year, but they'll be a scary team that no one will want to play, a lot like our teams in the past decade who have far overperformed their seed.
RE: Women's Tennis: Spring Season Around the Corner! - TheFarm07 - 02-27-2024
(02-26-2024, 11:12 AM)ColoradoTree Wrote: Now we know why Hui was out of the lineup for UCSB--she flew down to San Diego to get ready for the WTA's San Diego Open, where she got a main draw wild card as a local kid.
She'll play 7th-seeded Donna Vekic in the first round, likely tomorrow sometime. Vekic is currently ranked #28 in the world and peaked at #19 a few years ago. Fair to say that this will be the toughest match Hui has ever played, so don't read too much into it if she gets double-bageled! But even just the experience should be fantastic for her, and it'll only benefit Stanford for the rest of the season.
ColoradoTree, did you see any of the match? Vekic won 7-5, 6-2 and the WTA has highlights on their YouTube channel. Hard to tell from just selected clips, but Hui was able to break Vekic a couple of times but in the end, too much power and consistency from the tour veteran.
However, pushing Vekic to 7-5 in the first set and the experience playing against someone of her caliber, I imagine, will be invaluable to Hui's growth as a player. Vekic would be a definite step up against anyone Hui would be playing at the collegiate level for a bit.
RE: Women's Tennis: Spring Season Around the Corner! - ColoradoTree - 02-28-2024
(02-27-2024, 09:36 PM)TheFarm07 Wrote: ColoradoTree, did you see any of the match? Vekic won 7-5, 6-2 and the WTA has highlights on their YouTube channel. Hard to tell from just selected clips, but Hui was able to break Vekic a couple of times but in the end, too much power and consistency from the tour veteran.
However, pushing Vekic to 7-5 in the first set and the experience playing against someone of her caliber, I imagine, will be invaluable to Hui's growth as a player. Vekic would be a definite step up against anyone Hui would be playing at the collegiate level for a bit.
Sadly, I missed it, but wowza, that's an outstanding scoreline for her against such a good player. A really, really encouraging sign for her, and it bodes well for how she might do at or near the top of the lineup in a couple of years.
What an awesome experience for her on what are basically her home courts.
RE: Women's Tennis: Spring Season Around the Corner! - TheFarm07 - 02-28-2024
The highlights:
https://youtu.be/6CsX40jSqQ4?si=bgxPiSGRpUtR_h9g
RE: Women's Tennis: Spring Season Around the Corner! - ColoradoTree - 03-01-2024
FYI, due to rain in the area, tomorrow's match against St. Mary's has been cancelled. So, next up is a trip to the desert next weekend for our last regular-season conference matchups against Arizona and ASU.
RE: Women's Tennis 2024 - ColoradoTree - 03-06-2024
Updated Rankings
Updated rankings are out, and the team dropped from #2 to #3, as Michigan went back ahead of us. Neither team did much last weekend, but the ranking algorithm appears to have gone from 5 countable wins to 6, so we're now carrying a less valuable 6th win than they are. We'll get a good chance to improve on that this weekend, as we travel to the desert to play #30 Arizona State on Friday and #41 Arizona on Saturday. FYI, because of the 10% bonus for away wins, beating ASU would get us the points roughly equal to beating the #25 team.
But the important thing, like I said last week, is thinking about our best ten wins and avoiding losses. The team ranking right now isn't all that important--we just want to stay on track to be hosting a super regional, and the rest of it will fall into place.
As for individual rankings, here's where we are:
#15 Ma
#26 Blake
#38 Yepifanova
#86 Blokhina
#108 Xu
And in doubles:
#54 Ma/Yepifanova
#60 Blake/Blokhina
Looking ahead to Arizona State
Here's what I wrote last week:
Quote:And we'll talk more about this next week, but ASU is legitimately dangerous despite a middling record. They've scheduled hard, with 4-0 losses to both Oklahoma State and Ohio State on their resume already, plus a 4-1 loss to San Diego (that was about to be 4-2 with the final match even in the third, so it could've drawn closer). But those scorelines don't tell the whole story, as the doubles point against Oklahoma State had tiebreakers on all three courts, and ASU either led or was going the distance in the other three courts. So, if doubles goes the other way, that could've easily been a 4-3 match either way. And ASU's 4-0 loss to Ohio State was in Columbus, but they just beat Ohio State 4-1 in Tempe (though the other two singles matches were tight in the third set, so closer than the scoreline indicates). So that match in Tempe next weekend is certainly not one to take lightly. But with 2 matches against Ohio State and 1 each against San Diego, Oklahoma State, and UC Davis, that's 5 matches we can look to for comps on potentially what to expect.
ASU is 7-4, and they followed up that 4-1 win over Ohio State with a 4-2 loss at Baylor (though that one involved Morlet retiring after losing a second-set tiebreaker that forced a third, so she might not be at 100% for this one). This team is highly variable, and as they've shown so far, they can beat (or push to the brink) very good teams, and they can also lose to middling teams. Here's what the matchups would probably be:
1. #26 Blake vs. #87 Giulia Morlet (Sr., France)
2. #15 Ma vs. Chelsea Fontenel (So., Switzerland)
3. #38 Yepifanova vs. Marianna Argyrokastriti (Sr., Greece)
4. #86 Blokhina vs. #103 Emilija Tverijonaite (Fr., Lithuania)
5. Hui vs. Sara Svetac (Fr., Croatia) or Patricija Spaka (Jr., Latvia)
6. #108 Xu vs. Rachel Hanford (Sr., Canada)
As you can see, ASU is one of those teams that has managed to become a competitive program by recruiting heavily among international students.
Here's ASU's live stats website: https://sidearmstats.com/asu/wten/
RE: Women's Tennis 2024 - ColoradoTree - 03-08-2024
Nearing the end of the doubles point, it's as close as it can get.
1. Ma/Yepifanova tied 4-4
2. Blake/Blokhina tied 5-5
3. Hui/Xu lead 5-4
1. We trail 5-6
2. We're in a tiebreaker, but we're already down 5-2 in it.
3. In a tiebreaker.
I'd rather be ASU in the doubles point right now, but singles will be a different animal.
1. We win a deciding point down 5-6 to force a tiebreaker.
2. Lost the tiebreaker.
3. Lead 5-1 in the breaker.
So, looks like it'll come down to the tiebreaker on Court 1! Come on, Connie and Sasha!
Won the breaker on Court 3 7-2, and on Court 1, we currently trail 4-2.
Ugh, we lose that breaker 7-2, and with it, the doubles point. Let's hope we're sufficiently angry and come out swinging in singles and win this stupid match 4-1.
RE: Women's Tennis 2024 - Lorcan - 03-08-2024
This is the closest doubles point I've seen in a long time! All three courts go to a tiebreaker - just bonkers.
RE: Women's Tennis 2024 - ColoradoTree - 03-08-2024
Well, let's hope things go better in singles. Interestingly, Morlet isn't in the lineup--she must still be coming back from whatever caused her to retire against Baylor. So, everyone else slides up a line.
Arizona State 1, Stanford 0
1. Blake vs. Fontenel
2. Ma vs. Argyrokastriti
3. Yepifanova vs. Tverijonaite
4. Blokhina vs. Svetac
5. Hui vs. Spaka
6. Xu vs. Hanford
Especially with ASU's #1 out, Stanford should be considered a significant favorite to get the four wins it needs in singles, but it's a road conference match, and you never know.
Most courts are on serve so far--just getting started here--but Ma and Blokhina are up early breaks.
Arizona State 1, Stanford 0
1. Blake trails 1-3
2. Ma leads 5-0
3. Yepifanova tied 3-3
4. Blokhina leads 6-1, 0-0
5. Hui tied 3-3
6. Xu trails 2-3 (down a break)
So, we need four, and we're up a break (or a set) in two, down a break in two, and on serve in two.
Arizona State 1, Stanford 0
1. Blake tied 4-4
2. Ma leads 6-0, 2-0
3. Yepifanova leads 6-4, 0-0
4. Blokhina leads 6-1, 2-2
5. Hui leads 6-4, 0-0
6. Xu tied 4-4
Nice turnaround from Yepifanova there. Blake is fighting back, having won three straight. Blokhina's race to the finish has slowed down a bit. Hui keeps winning her service games easily and then failing to win the break points she's getting on her opponent's serve, but she just finally got one for the first set.
Things were slightly nervy there for a minute, but four first sets with the other two on serve is a much brighter position than we were in a bit ago.
RE: Women's Tennis 2024 - ColoradoTree - 03-08-2024
And I am a prophet! Stanford wins 4-1!
1. Blake trailed 5-7, 4-0
2. Ma won 6-0, 6-3
3. Yepifanova won 6-4, 6-4
4. Blokhina won 6-1, 6-3
5. Hui won 6-4, 6-2
6. Xu trailed 5-7, 2-2
Blokhina was first, then Ma, then Hui, and Yepifanova came back to clinch.
Positives:
* Ma and Blokhina established control early and when their second sets tightened up, they turned on the jets. Can't ask for much more.
* Hui was a little slower to take control, but once she did, she didn't let go. Great work by her.
* Yepifanova struggled throughout, but found the key points when she needed them. Good fight when her form still isn't at her best.
Negatives:
* Letdown in doubles with ASU's best player out of the lineup. Come on, we have to be better and take advantage. This "drop the doubles and storm back in singles" storyline is so played out at this point. How about we just do better in doubles for once?
* Blake should've done better, but the way her second set was going, she might well have been on the way to a three-set win with dominant wins in the second and third sets. And if that's the case, I would've been reasonably pleased, so I'll call her grade an incomplete.
* But Xu has to stop being a weak point at 6. She's not consistent enough. I'm tired of it. If she's not going to be a dominant force a la Sara Choy at 6, then step aside and let Eleana Yu take a turn. With a team as deep as ours, we ought to be absolutely crushing people on Court 6. That we're not doing that--and worse, that we're losing that line sometimes--means something needs to change.
RE: Women's Tennis 2024 - TheFarm07 - 03-08-2024
Looks like we won it on the 4 middle courts for a 4-1 win. Blake lost the first set on Court #1 but had a 4-0 lead in the second and Xu was in the middle of the second set after dropping a tight first set.
(03-08-2024, 04:40 PM)ColoradoTree Wrote: Negatives:
* Letdown in doubles with ASU's best player out of the lineup. Come on, we have to be better and take advantage. This "drop the doubles and storm back in singles" storyline is so played out at this point. How about we just do better in doubles for once?
* Blake should've done better, but the way her second set was going, she might well have been on the way to a three-set win with dominant wins in the second and third sets. And if that's the case, I would've been reasonably pleased, so I'll call her grade an incomplete.
* But Xu has to stop being a weak point at 6. She's not consistent enough. I'm tired of it. If she's not going to be a dominant force a la Sara Choy at 6, then step aside and let Eleana Yu take a turn. With a team as deep as ours, we ought to be absolutely crushing people on Court 6. That we're not doing that--and worse, that we're losing that line sometimes--means something needs to change.
What do you attribute our ongoing issues in doubles to?
Do you think Lele will make that lineup change at #6?