Pac-12 Expansion - Printable Version
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RE: Pac-12 Expansion - Mick - 05-31-2025
(09-25-2024, 07:17 PM)Mick Wrote:(09-23-2024, 04:46 PM)Mick Wrote: It is believed that Memphis, Tulane, South Florida, and UTSA have turned down the once-and-future Pac-12. They released a joint statement that upheld their conference commitment to each other. AAC departure requires a 27 month notification and a $10 million exit fee. An early departure would cost more; e.g., it cost SMU $25 million for an expedited move to the ACC and $17 million for UConn to depart the AAC to return to the Big East. The next Mountain West school would cost a $12 million penalty and a $17 million exit fee.
Texas State from the Sun Belt Conference would be far less costly. Other options would be UTEP and New Mexico State from Conference USA or Sac State and Tarleton State from the WAC, which have indicated they would be interested in moving up.
Cost to bring on Boise State, Fresno State, San Diego State and Colorado State looks to be $110 million. Pac-12 is sitting on $250 mms. of collective media revenue this year and next,.
The Pac-12 continues to pursue Gonzaga for basketball and UNLV and Utah State for football and basketball. The conference's pitch is a $12 mms. to $15 mms. annual media rights distribution to each school.
No longer pursuing Utah State, the Pac-12 has landed Utah State as their seventh member. One more, and they'll be considered a viable football conference according to NCAA rules.
Another Mountain West school joining Pac-12 in 2026
San Diego State, Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State and Utah State formally gave notice today that they were departing the MWC and joining the Pac-12 starting with the 2026/2027 academic year. This means their MWC exit fee is $18 million each. Had they waited until June 1, their exit fee would have doubled to $36 million. The five former MWC schools plus Oregon State and Washington State mean that the conference is one football-playing school shy of the NCAA required minimum eight schools. The newly reconstituted Pac-12 needs to have an eighth school commit by July 1 in order to receive conference certification for the lucrative College Football Playoff in 2026/7. The conference would actually prefer nine schools to schedule eight in-conference games each.
The poaching fee lawsuit was brought by the Pac 12 on the MWC, citing antitrust issues; e.g., the Pac 12 was forced to schedule MWC schools because of a lack of opponents with available schedules. Here's an update on the mediation: ‘None of this is moving as quickly as I would like;’ San Diego State AD on Pac-12 expansion, MWC mediation Separately, per MWC by-laws, the conference is withholding is withholding the annual $6 million July distribution both in 2025 and 2026 from the departing schools.
San Diego State, 4 others formally leave Mountain West
One possibility is that the Pac 12 will float loans to those programs to cover the $12 million shortfalls against future Pac-12 school revenues.
San Diego State leaving Mountain West for Pac-12 in ‘next step forward’ – San Diego Union-Tribune
Northern Illinois is leaving the MAC to join the Mountain West Conference. And Gonzaga is joining the Pac-12 as a non-football member. And Memphis, USF, UTSA, Tulane will stay in the AAC, and UNLV and Air Force are remaining in the MWC. And the MWC is bringing in UTEP, making sense from both a financial and a travel standpoint.
College Football Realignment: CFP Format Changing, Sac State Jumping To The FBS - HERO Sports
RE: Pac-12 Expansion - BillBradley - 06-01-2025
(05-31-2025, 07:21 PM)Mick Wrote:Just a typo correction...Gonzaga is joining the Pac-12 not the MWC.(09-25-2024, 07:17 PM)Mick Wrote:(09-23-2024, 04:46 PM)Mick Wrote: It is believed that Memphis, Tulane, South Florida, and UTSA have turned down the once-and-future Pac-12. They released a joint statement that upheld their conference commitment to each other. AAC departure requires a 27 month notification and a $10 million exit fee. An early departure would cost more; e.g., it cost SMU $25 million for an expedited move to the ACC and $17 million for UConn to depart the AAC to return to the Big East. The next Mountain West school would cost a $12 million penalty and a $17 million exit fee.
Texas State from the Sun Belt Conference would be far less costly. Other options would be UTEP and New Mexico State from Conference USA or Sac State and Tarleton State from the WAC, which have indicated they would be interested in moving up.
Cost to bring on Boise State, Fresno State, San Diego State and Colorado State looks to be $110 million. Pac-12 is sitting on $250 mms. of collective media revenue this year and next,.
The Pac-12 continues to pursue Gonzaga for basketball and UNLV and Utah State for football and basketball. The conference's pitch is a $12 mms. to $15 mms. annual media rights distribution to each school.
No longer pursuing Utah State, the Pac-12 has landed Utah State as their seventh member. One more, and they'll be considered a viable football conference according to NCAA rules.
Another Mountain West school joining Pac-12 in 2026
San Diego State, Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State and Utah State formally gave notice today that they were departing the MWC and joining the Pac-12 starting with the 2026/2027 academic year. This means their MWC exit fee is $18 million each. Had they waited until June 1, their exit fee would have doubled to $36 million. The five former MWC schools plus Oregon State and Washington State mean that the conference is one football-playing school shy of the NCAA required minimum eight schools. The newly reconstituted Pac-12 needs to have an eighth school commit by July 1 in order to receive conference certification for the lucrative College Football Playoff in 2026/7. The conference would actually prefer nine schools to schedule eight in-conference games each.
The poaching fee lawsuit was brought by the Pac 12 on the MWC, citing antitrust issues; e.g., the Pac 12 was forced to schedule MWC schools because of a lack of opponents with available schedules. Here's an update on the mediation: ‘None of this is moving as quickly as I would like;’ San Diego State AD on Pac-12 expansion, MWC mediation Separately, per MWC by-laws, the conference is withholding is withholding the annual $6 million July distribution both in 2025 and 2026 from the departing schools.
San Diego State, 4 others formally leave Mountain West
One possibility is that the Pac 12 will float loans to those programs to cover the $12 million shortfalls against future Pac-12 school revenues.
San Diego State leaving Mountain West for Pac-12 in ‘next step forward’ – San Diego Union-Tribune
Northern Illinois is leaving the MAC to join the Mountain West Conference. And Gonzaga is joining the MWC as a non-football member. And Memphis, USF, UTSA, Tulane will stay in the AAC, and UNLV and Air Force are remaining in the MWC. And the MWC is bringing in UTEP, making sense from both a financial and a travel standpoint.
College Football Realignment: CFP Format Changing, Sac State Jumping To The FBS - HERO Sports
RE: Pac-12 Expansion - Mick - 06-01-2025
(06-01-2025, 01:14 AM)BillBradley Wrote: Just a typo correction...Gonzaga is joining the Pac-12 not the MWC.
Noted, changed, thanks BB. And a clarification, the Pac-12 doesn't need to have an 8th/9th committed member until July 1, 2026.
Any thoughts as to the most likely eighth (and perhaps ninth) Pac-12 team will be?
Texas State / UTexas San Antonio?
Sac'to State / San Jose State?
Memphis / Tulane?
UConn / UMass?
New Mexico State?
RE: Pac-12 Expansion - Mick - 06-01-2025
Current odds, based on a betting site:
College, Odds
Texas State, +110
Tulane, +225
Memphis, +800
UNLV, +900
North Texas, +1400
UTSA, +1600
Sacramento State, +2750
The Field, +1000
Supposedly, the Pac-12 really wants UNLV.
RE: Pac-12 Expansion - old spanish trail - 06-01-2025
(06-01-2025, 08:17 AM)Mick Wrote: Current odds, based on a betting site:
College, Odds
Texas State, +110
Tulane, +225
Memphis, +800
UNLV, +900
North Texas, +1400
UTSA, +1600
Sacramento State, +2750
The Field, +1000
Supposedly, the Pac-12 really wants UNLV.
UNLV makes the most sense.
RE: Pac-12 Expansion - Giants - 06-01-2025
Mick dateline='[url=tel:1748791038' Wrote: 1748791038[/url]']
Current odds, based on a betting site:
College, Odds
Texas State, +110
Tulane, +225
Memphis, +800
UNLV, +900
North Texas, +1400
UTSA, +1600
Sacramento State, +2750
The Field, +1000
Supposedly, the Pac-12 really wants UNLV.
Imagine reading that sentence five years ago.
The PAC-12 is now a minor league destined to scheduling games on television stations no one has ever heard of, at times that discourage in-game attendance. How the mighty have fallen.
RE: Pac-12 Expansion - StanUSwagU - 06-01-2025
(06-01-2025, 03:26 PM)Giants Wrote:Mick dateline='[url=tel:1748791038' Wrote: 1748791038[/url]']
Current odds, based on a betting site:
College, Odds
Texas State, +110
Tulane, +225
Memphis, +800
UNLV, +900
North Texas, +1400
UTSA, +1600
Sacramento State, +2750
The Field, +1000
Supposedly, the Pac-12 really wants UNLV.
Imagine reading that sentence five years ago.
The PAC-12 is now a minor league destined to scheduling games on television stations no one has ever heard of, at times that discourage in-game attendance. How the mighty have fallen.
Giants,
Hi, thanks for the post.
(1) This is what happens when a Conference or its Members fail to be Proactive & Adapt to the changing landscape of BigTime D1 College Athletics.
(2) As far as for "Imagine reading that sentence five years ago"; For people who really follow & study BigTime D1 College Athletics (especially Football), this was known as the inevitable outcome for the Pac12, long before five years ago; It was actually known from the time the Pac10 Conference failed to 'close the deal' on getting University of Texas & University of Oklahoma to join the Pac10 to make it a Powerhouse Football Pac12; This trajectory and the forthcoming lack of large lucrative TV Media Deals for the Pac12, was sealed at that moment.
(3) Scary thing is, it might be the fate/trajectory of our beloved Stanford University & Stanford Athletics, (to become as you say 'minor league' like the attempted reformulated 'WAC/MtnWest/BigSky/YMCA/CalState/SummittLeague Pac12' or Dartmouth Athletics or Cornell Athletics) ...if we dont start adapting more quickly to the new landscape of BigTime D1 College Athletics.
RE: Pac-12 Expansion - chrisk - 06-02-2025
It’s not clear that any PAC-12 configuration could keep USC from accepting a Big 10 invitation. Without USC, the PAC-12 would be far from the level of the Big 10 and SEC.
RE: Pac-12 Expansion - Giants - 06-02-2025
StanUSwagU dateline='[url=tel:1748817915' Wrote: 1748817915[/url]']
Giants dateline='[url=tel:1748816777' Wrote: 1748816777[/url]']
Mick dateline='[url=tel:1748791038' Wrote: 1748791038[/url]']
Current odds, based on a betting site:
College, Odds
Texas State, +110
Tulane, +225
Memphis, +800
UNLV, +900
North Texas, +1400
UTSA, +1600
Sacramento State, +2750
The Field, +1000
Supposedly, the Pac-12 really wants UNLV.
Imagine reading that sentence five years ago.
The PAC-12 is now a minor league destined to scheduling games on television stations no one has ever heard of, at times that discourage in-game attendance. How the mighty have fallen.
Giants,
Hi, thanks for the post.
(1) This is what happens when a Conference or its Members fail to be Proactive & Adapt to the changing landscape of BigTime D1 College Athletics.
(2) As far as for "Imagine reading that sentence five years ago"; For people who really follow & study BigTime D1 College Athletics (especially Football), this was known as the inevitable outcome for the Pac12, long before five years ago; It was actually known from the time the Pac10 Conference failed to 'close the deal' on getting University of Texas & University of Oklahoma to join the Pac10 to make it a Powerhouse Football Pac12; This trajectory and the forthcoming lack of large lucrative TV Media Deals for the Pac12, was sealed at that moment.
(3) Scary thing is, it might be the fate/trajectory of our beloved Stanford University & Stanford Athletics, (to become as you say 'minor league' like the attempted reformulated 'WAC/MtnWest/BigSky/YMCA/CalState/SummittLeague Pac12' or Dartmouth Athletics or Cornell Athletics) ...if we dont start adapting more quickly to the new landscape of BigTime D1 College Athletics.
I would disagree with the “inevitable outcome” comment.
Subsequent to the departure of USC and UCLA, ESPN made an offer of $30 million/per school to the remaining members of the conference (per John Canzano formerly with The Oregonian, the offer was made in the Fall of 2022). George Klavikoff and conference leadership countered with an offer of $50 million/school. ESPN said “goodbye” and the rest is history.
The $30 Million figure would have been in the ballpark of the Big 12’s payment from ESPN - a fair price for the P12 rights in the 2022 environment.
Yes, hindsight tells us that was a massive misplay by the commissioner and Presidents/Chancellors but I believe most observers of the college football scene who were aware of the offer knew it at the time. The league could have added SD State and UNLV to replace USC and UCLA and thrived with new anchors in Eugene and Seattle.
No, the demise of the conference was not inevitable. It was the result of botched media negotiations.
RE: Pac-12 Expansion - paloalto - 06-02-2025
I like the idea of going back to the reconstituted PAC-12. Stanford football is not at the level of SEC or BIG-10. Stanford does not have a track record to indicate it will have NIL resources to pay out $millions every year for top football players. Also Stanford will never be a revolving door transfer portal operation.
The Olympic sports can schedule top level non-conference opponents and blast through the new PAC-12. Most fans on this board seem to enjoy winning more than losing.
RE: Pac-12 Expansion - M T - 06-02-2025
I believe in regional scheduling and such a conference. But didn’t Stanford subjecate itself to a 10 year bondage?
RE: Pac-12 Expansion - Mick - 06-02-2025
(06-02-2025, 01:58 PM)M T Wrote: I believe in regional scheduling and such a conference. But didn’t Stanford subjecate itself to a 10 year bondage?
I think a lot of things can happen in the meantime, or maybe it happens after 10 years. Media will dictate it, of course, but Stanford (and Cal) will have options that will mean far fewer cross-continental trips.
(06-02-2025, 01:28 PM)paloalto Wrote: I like the idea of going back to the reconstituted PAC-12. Stanford football is not at the level of SEC or BIG-10. Stanford does not have a track record to indicate it will have NIL resources to pay out $millions every year for top football players. Also Stanford will never be a revolving door transfer portal operation.
The Olympic sports can schedule top level non-conference opponents and blast through the new PAC-12. Most fans on this board seem to enjoy winning more than losing.
Agreed, it's what I've been saying since the beginning. Stanford (and Cal) would do quite well in the reconfigured Pac-12. Good, mid-level and local competition. And who knows? Colorado and ASU did great in the Big-12 this year and Arizona and Utah were terrible. Washington and UCLA finished sub-.500. Oregon did well, let them stay, USC finished 7-6, they can go pound sand. Some of them may come back. And Stanford/Cal can, if they so choose, schedule non-conference games with them. I'd rather win in the MWC than the AAC.
RE: Pac-12 Expansion - Canalejas - 06-02-2025
If we get the band back together it will probably be as some new conference with a different name. Which I think would be preferable to rejoining the Pac.
RE: Pac-12 Expansion - Mick - 06-02-2025
(06-02-2025, 02:19 PM)Canalejas Wrote: If we get the band back together it will probably be as some new conference with a different name. Which I think would be preferable to rejoining the Pac.
Agreed. Should have a cool, fresh, descriptive name like Pacific Coast Conference.
RE: Pac-12 Expansion - Giants - 06-02-2025
(06-02-2025, 01:58 PM)M T Wrote: I believe in regional scheduling and such a conference. But didn’t Stanford subjecate itself to a 10 year bondage?
In essence, that was revised to “subjugation” until 2030. At that point, the buyout to leave unfettered will be reduced to $75 million. Thank you, Florida State and Clemson.
RE: Pac-12 Expansion - StanUSwagU - 06-02-2025
While we're at it, why stop there,...we could keep things really small & travel very regional, if we just joined the CoastConference, (see member colleges below):
https://www.coastconferenceathletics.com/landing/index
RE: Pac-12 Expansion - Mick - 06-28-2025
(06-01-2025, 08:17 AM)Mick Wrote: Current odds, based on a betting site:
College, Odds
Texas State, +110
Tulane, +225
Memphis, +800
UNLV, +900
North Texas, +1400
UTSA, +1600
Sacramento State, +2750
The Field, +1000
Supposedly, the Pac-12 really wants UNLV.
(06-28-2025, 02:10 PM)82lsju Wrote: reportedly adding Texas State in 2026 as the eighth football team and remain an FBS league
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2025/06/27/texas-state-pac-12-sun-belt-exit-fee-teams/84357241007/
And the oddsmakers had it right...
RE: Pac-12 Expansion - ADPinWDC - 07-01-2025
(09-13-2024, 01:48 PM)Spiny_Norman Wrote: It seems to me more likely than not that ESPN, Fox, the B10 and SEC create a Premier League of college football with everyone else, including the ACC and Big 12, being relegated to mid major money.
And, then Corporate sponsors will pony up money to field RollerBall squads. Cuz, it's about the money.
RE: Pac-12 Expansion - paloalto - 07-29-2025
I'm seeing more and more sports articles refer to the Power 5 conferences, including PAC-12 as a power conference. I haven't followed it closely enough to know if TV networks and NCAA consider the new PAC-12 a "power" conference.
RE: Pac-12 Expansion - Giants - 07-29-2025
(07-29-2025, 12:49 PM)paloalto Wrote: I'm seeing more and more sports articles refer to the Power 5 conferences, including PAC-12 as a power conference. I haven't followed it closely enough to know if TV networks and NCAA consider the new PAC-12 a "power" conference.
No, it is not a power conference. The Power Conferences, ACC, B12, B10 and SEC, are defined by a contract that gives them a cut of CFP revenue that is substantially higher than the “Group” conferences.
Of the Group conferences, the American is generally listed as the closest to the P4. Next in line, the Sun Belt, MWC and P12 are lumped together.