Directors' Cup Directors' Cup 2017-18

Directors' Cup Directors' Cup 2017-18 - Printable Version

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Re: Directors' Cup 2017-18 - BigEasyCard - 04-10-2018

(04-10-2018, 01:56 PM)ColoradoTree link Wrote:I think it is likely that women's tennis turns it on for NCAAs. They only have 3 losses (all to top 10 teams while our #2, Melissa Lord, was out injured), they're currently ranked 22nd, and if they can win out and get a Top 16 seed, they will be a classic underseeded Stanford team that no one wants to play, now that Lord is back healthy.

The first two rounds of the 64-team tournament are at campus sites (so a Top 16 seed means you get to stay at home), and then the final 16 teams all go to one location (this year, at Wake Forest) for the remainder of the tournament. If Stanford makes it to Winston-Salem, that's at least 64 points.

Re: Directors' Cup 2017-18 - BobK - 04-10-2018

Track rankings like womens tennis are a brobdingnagian joke.Â Stanford track stomps cal and thats not
Enough.Â Stupid.

Re: Directors' Cup 2017-18 - Farm93 - 04-10-2018

(04-10-2018, 02:41 PM)BigEasyCard link Wrote:[quote author=ColoradoTree link=topic=18258.msg227654#msg227654 date=1523393768]
I think it is likely that women's tennis turns it on for NCAAs. They only have 3 losses (all to top 10 teams while our #2, Melissa Lord, was out injured), they're currently ranked 22nd, and if they can win out and get a Top 16 seed, they will be a classic underseeded Stanford team that no one wants to play, now that Lord is back healthy.

The first two rounds of the 64-team tournament are at campus sites (so a Top 16 seed means you get to stay at home), and then the final 16 teams all go to one location (this year, at Wake Forest) for the remainder of the tournament. If Stanford makes it to Winston-Salem, that's at least 64 points.

That would be a fine outcome to a difficult season.

The next three lowest scoring sports right now are Men's ITF (51), Football (55), and Fencing (57).Â So Women's Tennis could contribute 13 net points (no pun intended) or more if their NCAA performance exceeds their ranking.Â That would get Stanford near 1,375 Cup points.

Geaux Cardinal!
[/quote]

1360+ is probably a zone that only Ohio State can reach at this point.Â And for tOSU to get into that zone they would need to replicate the remarkable run of luck they had in April and May of 2017.Â Still, it is possible for tOSU to get into the 1300+ zone.Â It is not realistic for UCLA to get into that zone as they lost too many critical points in football, men's hoops and women's hoops.Â

Re: Directors' Cup 2017-18 - BigEasyCard - 04-10-2018

(04-10-2018, 12:38 PM)unclechuck link Wrote:[quote author=BobK link=topic=18258.msg227590#msg227590 date=1523304315]
Womens track and field

Women most currently ranked 11th in NCAA composite ranks - mostly on strong Field results out of Stanford Invitational; men have slipped to 25th.

http://ustfccca.org/assets/rankings/div1/2018-otf/DI_2018_outWk2_TF_NationalRankingsTop25.pdf

So in gross points roughly 70 for women and 48-50 for men (lots of ties in this score area, hence guesstimate). I'm unclear about the gender fidelity of swap outs, so will leave any net speculation to BEC.
[/quote]

Other than the two required sports for each gender, there are no more gender requirements:

"Adjustment of gender requirements
Since the NCAA and NAIA currently embrace and abide by the federal law (Title IX) that requires equal participation opportunities within its athletics programs, the previous gender requirements (equal sports scored in each gender) that have been used were no longer deemed necessary."

http://www.nacda.com/sports/directorscup/spec-rel/050417aaf.html

Geaux Cardinal!

Re: Directors' Cup 2017-18 - BigEasyCard - 04-10-2018

(04-10-2018, 02:54 PM)Farm93 link Wrote:....

1360+ is probably a zone that only Ohio State can reach at this point.Â And for tOSU to get into that zone they would need to replicate the remarkable run of luck they had in April and May of 2017.Â Still, it is possible for tOSU to get into the 1300+ zone.Â It is not realistic for UCLA to get into that zone as they lost too many critical points in football, men's hoops and women's hoops.

A quick review of Ohio State's Athletics Web site shows them to have one more Cup sport than Stanford.Â They have M/W Ice Hockey, Rifle (Combined M/W, like Fencing), and M Lax.Â We have M/W WP and W Beach VB.

So far this year they have earned 193 Cup points from sports where we don't compete.Â Their M Lax team which finished second last year, is currently unranked, but ranked #4 earlier this year.Â They have played some ranked opponents close and might possibly still make the 16-team NCAA Tournament this year.

Geaux Cardinal!

Re: Directors' Cup 2017-18 - unclechuck - 04-10-2018

(04-10-2018, 03:47 PM)BigEasyCard link Wrote:[quote author=unclechuck link=topic=18258.msg227649#msg227649 date=1523389086]
[quote author=BobK link=topic=18258.msg227590#msg227590 date=1523304315]
Womens track and field

Re: Directors' Cup 2017-18 - fullmetal - 04-11-2018

My realistic self thinks women's rowing should finish between 5th and 10th place, fwiw.Â The cold weather (read: iced in) programs haven't been on the water long enough for a real pecking order to sort itself out.

Re: Directors' Cup 2017-18 - ColoradoTree - 04-11-2018

(04-10-2018, 02:48 PM)BobK link Wrote:Track rankings like womens tennis are a of exceedingly large proportions joke.Â Stanford track stomps ×ÉÉ and thats not
Enough.Â Stupid.

Re: Directors' Cup 2017-18 - unclechuck - 04-11-2018

(04-10-2018, 02:48 PM)BobK link Wrote:Track rankings like womens tennis are a of exceedingly large proportions joke.Â Stanford track stomps ×ÉÉ and thats not
Enough.Â Stupid.

Ah, c'mon Bob, no worse than early season football or hoops rankings. Track is inherently harder to rank since, like many others,Â Director's points are based on final championship meet performance only. For that meet only 8 places are scored and there are only two relays, so overall team depth is less important than having a handful of superstars who can clearly score. So, similar to our dual meet victory in men's swimming over Kal, while satisfying on its own, it has little predictive value for Director's points.

That said, here are the first rankings by Track & Field News, which uses different metrics to come up with their rankings and tends to get pretty accurate as the season moves on. They are more heavily weighted on current season performances than the full past year values of some other rankings. Happily, they have us at 8th for men, and 7th for women in this initial evaluation. Link to men's chart is at top of this women's ranking:

https://www.trackandfieldnews.com/index.php/category-formcharts/3422-2018-ncaa-women-s-formchart-no-1

Re: Directors' Cup 2017-18 - BobK - 04-11-2018

Told ya so.Â LOLÂ Thanks much chuck

Re: Directors' Cup 2017-18 - BostonCard - 04-11-2018

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/want-to-know-who-will-win-during-march-madness-go-back-to-the-preseason-polls/

Actually, pre-season hoops polls are not too bad.Â They are actually better than the final RPI, though I think that says more abou how crappy RPI is than about how good pre-season polls are.

BC

Re: Directors' Cup 2017-18 - BigEasyCard - 04-12-2018

In the third D1 Winter standings released today, Stanford leads with a total of 977.50 points and Michigan passes Penn State to take second with 796.50 points.Â

Press release here: http://www.nacda.com/sports/directorscup/spec-rel/041218aaa.html

The press release has a link to the full standings.

Geaux Cardinal!

Re: Directors' Cup 2017-18 - ColoradoTree - 04-12-2018

(04-11-2018, 08:36 AM)ColoradoTree link Wrote:[quote author=BobK link=topic=18258.msg227658#msg227658 date=1523396916]
Track rankings like womens tennis are a of exceedingly large proportions joke.Â Stanford track stomps ×ÉÉ and thats not
Enough.Â Stupid.

I hear you, but it's something that's within our control to improve. It's a known algorithm, so tougher non-conference scheduling (it's not that we don't play good teams, we just need to play more of them), playing ITA Kick-Off Weekend, etc. Those are all things that could improve our ranking each year.Â

Of course, that wouldn't have helped us much this year, because Lord would have been out for those matches, and our ranking might be even lower than it is! But in an injury-free year, playing some mid-tier SEC and ACC programs early would mean we'd be more properly ranked in time for NCAA seeding, so we can avoid unnecessarily tough NCAA matchups.Â This year, we might be a top 5 caliber team when we're rolling and with Lord back. But if we're the 15 seed, we'll be playing the 2 seed in the Round of 16, rather than not playing someone that tough until the semis. Sure, you have to beat those folks anyway, but since this is a Directors' Cup thread, those extra 20 or so points most years would be pretty useful.
[/quote]

To follow up on this, the women's tennis rankings routinely and undeniably underrank Stanford once their computer rankings come out, in contrast to the committee rankings at the start of the year, which are a much better assessment of how good our team is.Â But the rankings are designed to reward teams with the best resume, and thus can't do a holistic look and consider who they deem the best team to be.Â

That said, the rankings do a pretty good job of where they slot most other teams, as most of the rest of the top 16 generally deserve to be where they are. With those teams, they play a more rigorous schedule, so any differences between "best resume" and "best team" have largely been smoothed out.Â I think there are generally two exceptions: Stanford and Pepperdine.Â With Stanford, we intentionally play a lighter schedule than the other top teams, so we have fewer impressive wins to our credit when it comes time to seed for NCAAs.Â And with Pepperdine, their ranking is often weighed down by the fact that their conference schedule in the Big West provides them very few opportunities to notch wins over good teams, which is how the computer rankings work (wins over good teams count more than wins over bad teams, and losses to good teams hurt your ranking less than losses to bad teams).Â I think Pepperdine has made efforts in recent years to mitigate this effect by scheduling an even harder non-conference schedule, but it still affects them to some degree. (Less so this year because they played in the ITA Kick-Off Weekend, won that to punch their ticket to Indoor Nationals, and proceeded to beat some excellent teams on the way to losing a close match to North Carolina in the final.)Â

In short, the rankings system is objective and a reasonable measure of a team's resume. Pretty much everybody else adjusts scheduling accordingly and tries to make sure they have enough ranked matches on the schedule to be up at the top at year's end. We have declined to do so, perhaps under the theory that the lighter schedule, with fewer non-conference road trips, means we're fresher for NCAAs.Â If that's the case, I can't really blame Lele, because you can't argue with her results. But I can't really blame the rankings system, because our resume generally isn't as impressive as other top teams. This is where the new USTA college rankings are interesting, as they are a committee of folks in the tennis community that try and assess the question of who the best team is.Â Right now, they say we're the 10th-best team, while the ITA says we have the 22nd-best resume. I'd quibble with the 10th, actually, as with Lord healthy, I think we're better than 10th, but I can't argue much with the assessment of our resume. (If she'd been healthy all season, I think we still lose to Vanderbilt, but it's closer, and I think we beat Texas and Florida, and those two wins would put us comfortably in the top 10 at this point.Â But that's who we are now, not who we've shown ourselves to be all season.) But you know that every spring, the coach of a top 4 seed looks at their path in the NCAAs, sees they're slotted to play like a 13th-seeded Stanford in the Round of 16, and they mutter expletives to themselves, because they know.

Lele has shown that she doesn't really care about resume-based seeding, because she presumably figures that we'll be good enough to beat just about anybody anyway once NCAAs roll around. When the standard your program has set is that NCAA titles are an expectation, whether you play Florida in the Round of 16 (which we did as a 15th seed en route to the title in 2015) or in the final (which we did in our runner-up effort last year) just might not be that big of a consideration.Â A different scheduling approach would probably lead to higher seeds, and thus easier paths in the tournament. We might not win any more titles, but we'd probably advance a little bit deeper on average, which would help Directors' Cup standings--I just don't think Lele cares about that.Â She knows that we'll make the tournament, and while we cut it close some years on getting that top 16 seed and the hosting duties that come with it, she rightly figures that as long as we're in the thing, we can win it.

(Sorry for hijacking the thread! It's sorta on topic, though, right?)

Re: Directors' Cup 2017-18 - CompSci87 - 04-12-2018

(04-12-2018, 07:08 AM)BigEasyCard link Wrote:In the third D1 Winter standings released today, Stanford leads with a total of 977.50 points and Michigan passes Penn State to take second with 796.50 points.Â

Press release here: http://www.nacda.com/sports/directorscup/spec-rel/041218aaa.html

The press release has a link to the full standings.

Geaux Cardinal!

The press release has an poorly worded lede:

Quote:After adding mens ice hockey, Stanford remains in control of the lead in Division I by 181 points.

Re: Directors' Cup 2017-18 - BigEasyCard - 04-12-2018

(04-12-2018, 09:27 AM)CompSci87 link Wrote:[quote author=BigEasyCard link=topic=18258.msg227762#msg227762 date=1523542130]
In the third D1 Winter standings released today, Stanford leads with a total of 977.50 points and Michigan passes Penn State to take second with 796.50 points.Â

Press release here: http://www.nacda.com/sports/directorscup/spec-rel/041218aaa.html

The press release has a link to the full standings.

Geaux Cardinal!

The press release has an poorly worded lede:

Quote:After adding mens ice hockey, Stanford remains in control of the lead in Division I by 181 points.

The dangling participle makes it sound like Stanford added ice hockey, which is particularly odd since Stanford doesn't have an ice hockey team. I.e., "After adding [the zero points they earned for] men's ice hockey, Stanford..."
[/quote]

I had to read that sentence twice, for the same reason.Â I have contacted the NACDA about Cup data issues before, but I'll leave the press release editing to someone else. :)

Geaux Cardinal!

Re: Directors' Cup 2017-18 - BobK - 04-12-2018

Thanks Tree, great post.Â Still the rankings suck, but after reading your post a little less.Â LOL

RE: Directors' Cup 2017-18 - BigEasyCard - 04-26-2018

In the final D1 Winter standings released today, Stanford leads with a total of 1,104.00 points and Penn State is second with 889.25 points. Stanford widened the lead over all five of the nearest competitors and had the second highest Winter total of all D1 schools.

The Cardinal total for 17 sports to date includes 0 for Men's Basketball. Baseball is also a required sport, so there is one more scoring slot available before we start dropping out lower scoring sports.

Press release here:

http://www.nacda.com/sports/directorscup/spec-rel/042618aaa.html

The press release has a link to the current standings.

From the release:

"The first set of Division I spring standings will be released Thursday, May 24, and will include the National Collegiate Championships of women’s water polo, men’s volleyball and women’s beach volleyball."

Geaux Cardinal!

RE: Directors' Cup 2017-18 - 2006alum - 04-26-2018

Thanks BigEasy! So it looks like our first replacement sport is FH with 25 points, then Wrestling with 40, and WGym with 46.5. The FH points will be easy to improve meaningfully upon, but the going gets kind of tough after that. To make much more than a 20 or 30 point move with any one sport will require us to score in the top 3-4 and hit the 80-85 point range.

Given that, I'm glad UCLA is sitting a full 500 points behind us with 603. They are going to move up a lot this spring.

RE: Directors' Cup 2017-18 - fullmetal - 04-28-2018

Ohio State will score well in women's rowing, as will Stanford (top 10 at least), though I think Stanford may finish behind the Buckeyes...we'll see. UCLA has no shot at women's rowing.

RE: Directors' Cup 2017-18 - BigEasyCard - 05-13-2018

Women's Water Polo earns 90 Cup points for their second place finish in the title game, bringing Stanford's unofficial total to 1,194.00 points. This includes 18 sports with the 19th spot reserved for Baseball.

I have not included WLAX in the scoring as I'm not sure of the points earned for a first round loss, and I expect other teams to finish higher in their respective NCAA championship competitions.

Geaux Cardinal!