Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
Loser	90	96	138	93	417
Winner	57	93	87	132	369

Granted this is a small sample, but the differentials are big enough that it makes me wonder if this pattern is real.
Approximately 50% more fouls called on the (eventual) losing team in the 3rd quarter than the other quarters.  Almost as big a differential for the winning team in the 4th quarter.

The 4th quarter differential against the winning team is due to the officials.  Obviously the winning team doesn't get tired & clumsy.  I'm sure we've all noticed officials miscalling fouls against the winning team in the 4th quarter.  I'm not a fan of that -- I don't see anything in the rule book that supports that (indeed, the rule book states that the game should be called consistently through the entire game).

But I'd like to understand the 3rd quarter.  Is it that the eventual loser usually becomes aggressive, or sloppy, in the 3rd?  Or is the skill of the eventual winner winning the officials over, resulting in getting the benefit of any call?

Also notice the first quarter for the eventual winner has fewer fouls.  My hunch is that the first quarter is probably the quarter most fairly called by the officials and also reflects the relative skill of the teams.  My hunch also is that by the second quarter, the officials are (consciously or subconsciously) trying to even out the fouls.

If the 3rd (and 1st) quarter patterns are real, I doubt that I'm the first to notice.  Does anyone know of any study on the reasons behind these patterns?  Does each official have their own pattern that is stronger/weaker for some officials?  Can coaches take such patterns into account for when to have which players in?

[The two female officials in the Syracuse-Stanford game have called the most fouls of all the officials.  The male official is a bit below the median.]

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RE: WBB: Victoria Invitational Thurs Fri Sat - 81alum - 11-30-2019

(11-30-2019, 01:20 AM)M T Wrote:  I was wondering about the foul calling tonight.  Kevin noticed quickly that the refs were going to rack up the fouls. 
The tournament has 12 refs, with different sets of 3 calling games (1 game per day per ref; different groupings of refs per day).
No team is really a home team so the influence of the crowd on the officials is lessened.

So I did some stats across the games (by quarters) and the refs.
What I did: 
As I was looking at the individual officials, I credited each official the total number of calls by his/her crew in each game. 
For the stats below, i added the fouls those numbers for all officials.
Thus the total number of fouls is tripled.  Divide all numbers by three if you prefer.

Here are the (3x) fouls called against the two teams so far, by quarters:

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
Loser	90	96	138	93	417
Winner	57	93	87	132	369

Granted this is a small sample, but the differentials are big enough that it makes me wonder if this pattern is real.
Approximately 50% more fouls called on the (eventual) losing team in the 3rd quarter than the other quarters.  Almost as big a differential for the winning team in the 4th quarter.

The 4th quarter differential against the winning team is due to the officials.  Obviously the winning team doesn't get tired & clumsy.  I'm sure we've all noticed officials miscalling fouls against the winning team in the 4th quarter.  I'm not a fan of that -- I don't see anything in the rule book that supports that (indeed, the rule book states that the game should be called consistently through the entire game).

But I'd like to understand the 3rd quarter.  Is it that the eventual loser usually becomes aggressive, or sloppy, in the 3rd?  Or is the skill of the eventual winner winning the officials over, resulting in getting the benefit of any call?

Also notice the first quarter for the eventual winner has fewer fouls.  My hunch is that the first quarter is probably the quarter most fairly called by the officials and also reflects the relative skill of the teams.  My hunch also is that by the second quarter, the officials are (consciously or subconsciously) trying to even out the fouls.

If the 3rd (and 1st) quarter patterns are real, I doubt that I'm the first to notice.  Does anyone know of any study on the reasons behind these patterns?  Does each official have their own pattern that is stronger/weaker for some officials?  Can coaches take such patterns into account for when to have which players in?

[The two female officials in the Syracuse-Stanford game have called the most fouls of all the officials.  The male official is a bit below the median.]

Fascinating, MT.  And by the way, you were featured prominently on at least two crowd shots during the volleyball broadcast!

I really don't get the fourth quarter.  Doesn't the losing team normally do a lot of deliberate fouls in the last minute of the game?  I would think the losing team, not the winning team, would have the most fouls in the 4th quarter.  This just seems counter intuitive.  In a very interesting way.

I wonder if some of the numbers would be reversed for games in which the ultimate loser was leading throughout the first half.  In other words, is the high number of 3rd quarter fouls for the loser due to it getting a half time pep talk and coming out and being overly aggressive?  When perhaps they would not do that if they were leading at the half?

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RE: WBB: Victoria Invitational Thurs Fri Sat - 81alum - 11-30-2019

And now for Mississippi State.

Mississippi State's coach was the defensive coach at A&M when A&M defeated us in the national semifinals in 2011.  Ever since Vic Shaeffer has coached teams that have pressed, stolen inbounds passes, and played close aggressive defense.  We can expect more of the same tonight.  Every pass will be contested.  Every inbounds play is a potential steal for MSU.  I'm sure we know this and have prepared for it.

If the game is called as tight as it was last night, it should work to our favor.  But we can't count on that.  Sound ball handling, good inbounds plays, and lots of fakes and backdoor cuts are what we will need tonight. 

The first person we need to stop is 6'5" Jessica Carter, their center who is averaging 16 points and 12 rebounds a game.  This we be a tall order for Fingall, Prechtel, and Belibi.  They will probably need help.

But forward 6'2" freshman Rickea Jackson, is a McD All American who has a lot of experience playing on USA teams.  She can't be neglected.  And forward 6'1" Chloe Bibby from Australia is making 42% of her threes.

And then we come to the guards.  Jordan Danberry averaged 14 ppg but shoots almost no treys, but makes 52% of her shots.  When did you hear of a guard making over 50%?  She has 25 steals on the year.  And Myah Taylor, the other starter, has 18 steals.

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RE: WBB: Victoria Invitational Thurs Fri Sat - 2006alum - 11-30-2019

I haven't been able to watch any of the tournament games, so a big thanks to those of you who can keep us updated. It's so encouraging that Fingall is coming back strong - just before she went down with the ACL injury, I'd noticed she was starting to make jump shots from around the elbow and high post. Having a big who can step back and shoot or step forward and drive to the basketball is something we've largely lacked apart from Smith, who was really more of a do-everything forward. It would also free us to play Fingall & Belibi together, which would enhance our physicality around the basket. Otherwise I don't think we can run the Princeton very effectively if 2 of our 5 players on the floor aren't credible shooters from beyond a few feet of the basket. 

I'll definitely be eager to see how we handle Vic's defensive pressure. And I'm not going to lie: that 2011 loss to A&M is a wound that festers to this day, so I'd sure love to pay it back with interest! Should be a good test to see where our young team is, and which players want to step up and get playing time when it matters.

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RE: WBB: Victoria Invitational Thurs Fri Sat - terry - 11-30-2019

(11-29-2019, 08:46 AM)terry Wrote:  

(11-28-2019, 10:34 PM)81alum I Wrote:  CBU clogged the paint and dared us to do what they were doing--make threes.

Maybe Jump could’ve played more? She seems to shoot threes pretty well.

As I was saying. . . .

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RE: WBB: Victoria Invitational Thurs Fri Sat - 2006alum - 11-30-2019

(11-30-2019, 12:28 PM)terry Wrote:  

(11-29-2019, 08:46 AM)terry Wrote:  

(11-28-2019, 10:34 PM)81alum I Wrote:  CBU clogged the paint and dared us to do what they were doing--make threes.

Maybe Jump could’ve played more? She seems to shoot threes pretty well.

As I was saying. . . .

Good call. I'm kind of surprised Tara didn't player her more against CBU given her prowess vs. Syracuse. Did anyone who was watching get a sense of why? Maybe not fast enough to keep up with the speedy CBU guards on defense?

Incidentally, apparently MSU fans think their team is bad at 3 point defense, so hopefully Jump will be ready to jump into action again today...

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RE: WBB: Victoria Invitational Thurs Fri Sat - 81alum - 11-30-2019

(11-30-2019, 12:30 PM)2006alum Wrote:  

(11-30-2019, 12:28 PM)terry Wrote:  

(11-29-2019, 08:46 AM)terry Wrote:  

(11-28-2019, 10:34 PM)81alum I Wrote:  CBU clogged the paint and dared us to do what they were doing--make threes.

Maybe Jump could’ve played more? She seems to shoot threes pretty well.

As I was saying. . . .

Good call. I'm kind of surprised Tara didn't player her more against CBU given her prowess vs. Syracuse. Did anyone who was watching get a sense of why? Maybe not fast enough to keep up with the speedy CBU guards on defense?

Incidentally, apparently MSU fans think their team is bad at 3 point defense, so hopefully Jump will be ready to jump into action again today...

They will be all over Jump today after that coming-out party.  So hopefully Lexie and Williams can heat up from three.  Heck, Anna Wilson had 7 against Ohio State a couple of years ago...maybe tonight should be her turn!

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RE: WBB: Victoria Invitational Thurs Fri Sat - CardinalWBBFan - 11-30-2019

Rickea Jackson is a player that can really heat up and score the ball. Tara was after her early on in the process, definitely a kid that can play. She's had some nice games after an awful start. She looked to be a solid player in the McDAA game.

Andra Espinoza-Hunter is another player that can really heat up. She went 8/11 and 7/11 from three in two games last year and shot 42.2% from three, but hasn't been doing as well. Let's hope she keeps that trend up. She started off at UConn.

Chloe Bibby tore her ACL a week or two after Fingall did, but she does not appear to be on a minutes restriction. She can shoot from deep it looks like too.

Their PG is not too good offensively. We have a MAJOR advantage at the PG position.

Their post player is athletic, pretty raw though. Looking at their box scores, she has struggled to make any kind of field goal recently. Thank God they don't have the one from last year. She was Kalani Brown on steroids in terms of build and rebounding.

Danberry is FAST. Small, but fast. She is a player that can cause headaches with her steals, but she doesn't shoot from deep.

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RE: WBB: Victoria Invitational Thurs Fri Sat - 81alum - 11-30-2019

Green Bay just hit a Carrington-esque half court shot to send the game against Syracuse into overtime.  I'm guessing our game will be delayed some.

Hoping for Syracuse to pull it out--helps our RPI.  But three of their players have already fouled out.

Cal Baptist lost badly to Bowling Green.  We just got them on the best shooting night of all of their lives.

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Green Bay pulls it out playing against all that was left of the Syracuse team, after the Orange had three starters foul out.

I am guessing that our game will be delayed by 10-15 minutes to give them a chance to get onto the court and conduct their warm ups.

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RE: WBB: Victoria Invitational Thurs Fri Sat - CompSci87 - 11-30-2019

Anyone have a news source to say when tipoff will be? I keep checking to see if the audio pregame show has started, but nothing yet.

Never mind, audio and video are both going now.

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RE: WBB: Victoria Invitational Thurs Fri Sat - 81alum - 11-30-2019

Tara in the pregame interview.  MSU is "in your grill and they wear you down.  That is where our depth may be able to contribute."

"We have to play with pace.  If we don't, we will have trouble.  People have to sprint.  Our offense is really designed to play this kind of defense.  The other thing you have to do is rebound.  You must box out.  You have to keep them off the glass.  They create chaos with their athleticism.  Turnovers.  You have to take care of the ball and not let them get second shots."

I think Tara was hinting that the Princeton and its back door cuts can work very well against a close defense, provided we keep it moving fast.  But in the third game of a tournament, it is hard to keep that up.  Watch for fatigue slowing down our offense.  If we get into a slow half court then things are not going well.  Instead we want to see constant cuts and motion.

Tara says Williams is the only player who might need a rest since she has played so many minutes, and MSU will be all over her.  Expect the point guard position to be rotated some.  I'm guessing Anna Wilson gets some time.

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RE: WBB: Victoria Invitational Thurs Fri Sat - CompSci87 - 11-30-2019

Thanks, I kept trying to start the audio and getting errors, but I guess not often enough. So I missed most of the interview with Tara.

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RE: WBB: Victoria Invitational Thurs Fri Sat - 81alum - 11-30-2019

It is 17-17 after the first quarter.

We clearly are having a few problems adjusting the the MSU height and athleticism inside.  They already have 4 blocks.  But Jump came in and immediately his a trey, and Jenna Brown in relieve of Kiana Williams drove and hit a layup, and that was enough to even up the game.

We have 5 turnovers to their 0.  Not good.

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Half way through the 2nd quarter and we have a 10 rebound advantage but are shooting 27% to their 44%.  Tied 25-25.

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RE: WBB: Victoria Invitational Thurs Fri Sat - mbdude - 11-30-2019

Only 1 of 9 on 3ptrs. Kiana still in slump 
We are 10 of 10 on fts. Keeping us in game

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RE: WBB: Victoria Invitational Thurs Fri Sat - 81alum - 11-30-2019

We are up 35-33 at the half.  We shot poorly but actually were 10/11 at the free throw line.

We cut down the turnovers in the 2nd quarter--just 1 more for the quarter.  That bodes well, and they pressed quite a lot.

Belibi has been our best scorer with 10 points.  She has 10 points and 2 offensive rebounds.

MSU has been shooting the three better than we have--they are 4/8 and we are 1/9.

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