Stanford Women’s soccer 2024 - Printable Version
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RE: Stanford Women’s soccer 2024 - Hieronymus - 10-14-2024
(10-13-2024, 04:47 PM)OCcardinal Wrote:(10-11-2024, 11:39 PM)oldalum Wrote: The Duke game is a harbinger of how we will (not) be able to compete against the very top teams going forward. Duke has 6 transfers on its roster; against us, 5 of them started and played at least 2/3 of the game, most of them 80 or 90 minutes. Duke's roster page even helpfully has a separate column for "Previous School." North Carolina has 5 transfers; 2 started against Cal yesterday. Florida State has at least 7 transfers and several international players. We have zero transfers on our roster. How are we going to win even a conference championship against that?I think that's an overly pessimistic take. With our young team we beat USC, which is currently at the top of the Big 10 standings, and whose star senior midfielder Maria Alagoa is a Portuguese national who was picked up as a transfer this season. We are also ahead of Florida State in the ACC standings. And of course we just beat North Carolina (which I know hadn't happened when you made your post).
I don't consider the 4 goals allowed vs Duke as evidence that we are suddenly a bad team. Duke took advantage of our defensive weakness due to Emri's injury. The safe approach would have been to move Aikey back to center back. Ratcliff took a gamble by playing her up and it failed. So be it. Today's game showed we have the talent to stop a top offense if we need to. And it's big that Harvey scored both goals this week. She was a major goal scorer in high school but Ratcliff had been playing her mostly at defensive mid since the beginning of her freshman year last season. I think we learned this week that she can give us a needed boost on offense when Aikey is moved to center back. Makes me feel very confident going forward.
I was hoping for at least 2 points this week (which would have been 2 ties). So I'm thrilled with picking up 3 points with a straight out win. I think there is more than a 50% chance we can win our remaining 3 games, which very likely puts us in the top 4 and gives us a home game for the 1st round of the ACC tournament. Big road games coming up against Louisville and Notre Dame. Fingers crossed!
I am putting Duke down as an aberration; however I am somewhat less optimistic overall. They badly needed that win against NC and gutted it out which is great. But:
- the defense was much better obviously but it’s not seamless. Harrison started rough but cleaned the defensive side up. Boamah let the ref and Thomas throw her off (I hope there was no injury on the face smack she took from Thomas) and Pagador needed a lot of help to hang on. Interior coverage though was excellent.
- NC is a thin team and appeared to wear out the last 20-30 minutes which can’t be expected every game.
- the offense didn’t suddenly show up, though I agree Harvey looked more comfortable today at RM and every bit of scoring helps.
- no Montoya. Injury? Something else? And Thomas got hurt and didn’t come back. It is getting desperate for bodies at forward.
Fundamentally though, it takes a lot of luck to win 6 games against 4 or 5 good teams this way. A bad ref, a bad bounce, PK’s. Whatever. With this little margin, something probably trips them up before the College Cup.
There is still time and again extra ACC tournament games might really help, but having to play Aikey at CB probably puts a ceiling on this team. To be clear though I do think it’s the right move, and it does maintain a high floor.
RE: Stanford Women’s soccer 2024 - Sakibomb25 - 10-14-2024
(10-14-2024, 06:36 PM)Hieronymus Wrote:(10-13-2024, 04:47 PM)OCcardinal Wrote:(10-11-2024, 11:39 PM)oldalum Wrote: The Duke game is a harbinger of how we will (not) be able to compete against the very top teams going forward. Duke has 6 transfers on its roster; against us, 5 of them started and played at least 2/3 of the game, most of them 80 or 90 minutes. Duke's roster page even helpfully has a separate column for "Previous School." North Carolina has 5 transfers; 2 started against Cal yesterday. Florida State has at least 7 transfers and several international players. We have zero transfers on our roster. How are we going to win even a conference championship against that?I think that's an overly pessimistic take. With our young team we beat USC, which is currently at the top of the Big 10 standings, and whose star senior midfielder Maria Alagoa is a Portuguese national who was picked up as a transfer this season. We are also ahead of Florida State in the ACC standings. And of course we just beat North Carolina (which I know hadn't happened when you made your post).
I don't consider the 4 goals allowed vs Duke as evidence that we are suddenly a bad team. Duke took advantage of our defensive weakness due to Emri's injury. The safe approach would have been to move Aikey back to center back. Ratcliff took a gamble by playing her up and it failed. So be it. Today's game showed we have the talent to stop a top offense if we need to. And it's big that Harvey scored both goals this week. She was a major goal scorer in high school but Ratcliff had been playing her mostly at defensive mid since the beginning of her freshman year last season. I think we learned this week that she can give us a needed boost on offense when Aikey is moved to center back. Makes me feel very confident going forward.
I was hoping for at least 2 points this week (which would have been 2 ties). So I'm thrilled with picking up 3 points with a straight out win. I think there is more than a 50% chance we can win our remaining 3 games, which very likely puts us in the top 4 and gives us a home game for the 1st round of the ACC tournament. Big road games coming up against Louisville and Notre Dame. Fingers crossed!
I am putting Duke down as an aberration; however I am somewhat less optimistic overall. They badly needed that win against NC and gutted it out which is great. But:
- the defense was much better obviously but it’s not seamless. Harrison started rough but cleaned the defensive side up. Boamah let the ref and Thomas throw her off (I hope there was no injury on the face smack she took from Thomas) and Pagador needed a lot of help to hang on. Interior coverage though was excellent.
- NC is a thin team and appeared to wear out the last 20-30 minutes which can’t be expected every game.
- the offense didn’t suddenly show up, though I agree Harvey looked more comfortable today at RM and every bit of scoring helps.
- no Montoya. Injury? Something else? And Thomas got hurt and didn’t come back. It is getting desperate for bodies at forward.
Fundamentally though, it takes a lot of luck to win 6 games against 4 or 5 good teams this way. A bad ref, a bad bounce, PK’s. Whatever. With this little margin, something probably trips them up before the College Cup.
There is still time and again extra ACC tournament games might really help, but having to play Aikey at CB probably puts a ceiling on this team. To be clear though I do think it’s the right move, and it does maintain a high floor.
The other thing people have to realize what has handicapped Stanford is the explosion of the NWSL and women's professional soccer in general. We lost Alyssa Thompson and Onyeka Gamero to the pros, and they were supposed to be the forwards of our future. And of course, we also lost Giselle Thompson, Alyssa's sister, to the pros as well. She would have helped on defense (though probably not at center back).
RE: Stanford Women’s soccer 2024 - GK3 - 10-15-2024
(10-14-2024, 08:26 PM)Sakibomb25 Wrote:I think the underlying issue here is can we stay consistently in the running for a NCAA title in today's world. Your best recruits may turn pro, others may decide the grass is greener at Duke, Va, NC, ND or Wake. None of those schools are chopped liver. If we won't/can't play the portal game, over the long haul it will be much harder to reach the top.(10-14-2024, 06:36 PM)Hieronymus Wrote:(10-13-2024, 04:47 PM)OCcardinal Wrote:(10-11-2024, 11:39 PM)oldalum Wrote: The Duke game is a harbinger of how we will (not) be able to compete against the very top teams going forward. Duke has 6 transfers on its roster; against us, 5 of them started and played at least 2/3 of the game, most of them 80 or 90 minutes. Duke's roster page even helpfully has a separate column for "Previous School." North Carolina has 5 transfers; 2 started against Cal yesterday. Florida State has at least 7 transfers and several international players. We have zero transfers on our roster. How are we going to win even a conference championship against that?I think that's an overly pessimistic take. With our young team we beat USC, which is currently at the top of the Big 10 standings, and whose star senior midfielder Maria Alagoa is a Portuguese national who was picked up as a transfer this season. We are also ahead of Florida State in the ACC standings. And of course we just beat North Carolina (which I know hadn't happened when you made your post).
I don't consider the 4 goals allowed vs Duke as evidence that we are suddenly a bad team. Duke took advantage of our defensive weakness due to Emri's injury. The safe approach would have been to move Aikey back to center back. Ratcliff took a gamble by playing her up and it failed. So be it. Today's game showed we have the talent to stop a top offense if we need to. And it's big that Harvey scored both goals this week. She was a major goal scorer in high school but Ratcliff had been playing her mostly at defensive mid since the beginning of her freshman year last season. I think we learned this week that she can give us a needed boost on offense when Aikey is moved to center back. Makes me feel very confident going forward.
I was hoping for at least 2 points this week (which would have been 2 ties). So I'm thrilled with picking up 3 points with a straight out win. I think there is more than a 50% chance we can win our remaining 3 games, which very likely puts us in the top 4 and gives us a home game for the 1st round of the ACC tournament. Big road games coming up against Louisville and Notre Dame. Fingers crossed!
I am putting Duke down as an aberration; however I am somewhat less optimistic overall. They badly needed that win against NC and gutted it out which is great. But:
- the defense was much better obviously but it’s not seamless. Harrison started rough but cleaned the defensive side up. Boamah let the ref and Thomas throw her off (I hope there was no injury on the face smack she took from Thomas) and Pagador needed a lot of help to hang on. Interior coverage though was excellent.
- NC is a thin team and appeared to wear out the last 20-30 minutes which can’t be expected every game.
- the offense didn’t suddenly show up, though I agree Harvey looked more comfortable today at RM and every bit of scoring helps.
- no Montoya. Injury? Something else? And Thomas got hurt and didn’t come back. It is getting desperate for bodies at forward.
Fundamentally though, it takes a lot of luck to win 6 games against 4 or 5 good teams this way. A bad ref, a bad bounce, PK’s. Whatever. With this little margin, something probably trips them up before the College Cup.
There is still time and again extra ACC tournament games might really help, but having to play Aikey at CB probably puts a ceiling on this team. To be clear though I do think it’s the right move, and it does maintain a high floor.
The other thing people have to realize what has handicapped Stanford is the explosion of the NWSL and women's professional soccer in general. We lost Alyssa Thompson and Onyeka Gamero to the pros, and they were supposed to be the forwards of our future. And of course, we also lost Giselle Thompson, Alyssa's sister, to the pros as well. She would have helped on defense (though probably not at center back).
RE: Stanford Women’s soccer 2024 - OCcardinal - 10-15-2024
Some responses to the above:
The potential of a serious injury to Thomas is bad but not devastating to our postseason hopes. She's a frosh who has 1 goal and 1 assist in 555 minutes. She got the start against both Duke and North Carolina and generated zero shots in either game. She'll get better with more minutes, but she's not necessarily the answer right now. I think we'd be better if Ratcliff played Harvey as a false 9, for example. (By the way, if Thomas is seriously hurt, f*ck North Carolina. The last time we played them at home they broke Tierna Davidson's ankle.)
Holding North Carolina scoreless is a big deal. The only other team to do that this season is Duke. They scored 3 goals recently against Virginia and have the #7 offense in the country according to Massey. Keep in mind that we lost 5th year defender Kennedy Wesley (the NWSL's current rookie of the month) at center back. It was a tremendous luxury that Emri came in and immediately performed at such a high level. But she's injured now and there's no one else on the roster besides Aikey who gives us anything close to what we need at center back against top offenses. So I think in these remaining games before the NCAA tournament we'll be figuring out how best to score goals without Aikey at mid or forward. I think part of that was Ratcliff starting Boamah at outside back 4 of the past 5 games. She's not our best defender but she's aggressive on offense which Ratcliff likes. Same reason why he put Buda at outside back (which unfortunately backfired in the national championship match - thankfully she's back at mid now). He also likes Logan Smith at outside back for a similar reason, though she's played much fewer minutes.
Allie Montoya possibly being out for an extended period of time does concern me. Although her production is down again this year (no goals and only 3 assists in 14 games) she still does things that no one else does for us. Fingers crossed there.
As for North Carolina getting tired (and us not) that shows we are deeper despite their easier ability to pick up transfers. (Players can transfer out too and North Carolina lost 9 players to the transfer portal last season).
Finally, I don't blame the NWSL for Stanford's loss of Alyssa Thompson. That was more of a National Team issue (similar to Sophia Smith leaving after her sophomore season). Alyssa had a chance of making the World Cup and got playing time with the senior team (but ultimately wasn't chosen). Her sister then chose to forgo college because her young age allowed her to skip the NWSL draft and sign directly with Angel City to play with her sister. A unique circumstance. Notably the latest collective bargaining agreement eliminates the NWSL draft entirely. We'll see how things play out going forward. Also, Onyeka Gamero signed with Barcelona. They were a top pro team before Stanford women's soccer won its first national championship.
RE: Stanford Women’s soccer 2024 - oldalum - 10-15-2024
(10-15-2024, 11:13 AM)OCcardinal Wrote: (By the way, if Thomas is seriously hurt, f*ck North Carolina. The last time we played them at home they broke Tierna Davidson's ankle.)yes, in what should have been a red card foul. And don't forget about Jaye Boissiere who UNC injured in the first game of a season and she was out for 2 years from complications of that injury. (fortunately she persevered and returned in time to score the winning goal in the championship game against UCLA). Under Dorrance they were big, fast, and physical and injuries be damned. I thought we should not schedule them again after Davidson's injury.
(10-15-2024, 08:21 AM)GK3 Wrote: I think the underlying issue here is can we stay consistently in the running for a NCAA title in today's world. Your best recruits may turn pro, others may decide the grass is greener at Duke, Va, NC, ND or Wake. None of those schools are chopped liver. If we won't/can't play the portal game, over the long haul it will be much harder to reach the top.Yes, I was thinking long term, not just this year. Thanks for saying it better than me. The Duke game, apart from gifting them 2 goals in the first 5 minutes, was overall pretty close. But Duke is fast, deep, and talented, and I think it would be difficult (but certainly not impossible) to beat them. Florida State was the dominant team last year and they reloaded this year with transfers and recruits. We're overall an excellent team with a few stars and improving frosh, but we would need a run of excellent play and very good fortune to win a national championship this year, and I fear in the future as well.
RE: Stanford Women’s soccer 2024 - Jamesy - 10-15-2024
(10-15-2024, 12:24 PM)oldalum Wrote:(10-15-2024, 11:13 AM)OCcardinal Wrote: (By the way, if Thomas is seriously hurt, f*ck North Carolina. The last time we played them at home they broke Tierna Davidson's ankle.)yes, in what should have been a red card foul. And don't forget about Jaye Boissiere who UNC injured in the first game of a season and she was out for 2 years from complications of that injury. (fortunately she persevered and returned in time to score the winning goal in the championship game against UCLA). Under Dorrance they were big, fast, and physical and injuries be damned. I thought we should not schedule them again after Davidson's injury.
(10-15-2024, 08:21 AM)GK3 Wrote: I think the underlying issue here is can we stay consistently in the running for a NCAA title in today's world. Your best recruits may turn pro, others may decide the grass is greener at Duke, Va, NC, ND or Wake. None of those schools are chopped liver. If we won't/can't play the portal game, over the long haul it will be much harder to reach the top.Yes, I was thinking long term, not just this year. Thanks for saying it better than me. The Duke game, apart from gifting them 2 goals in the first 5 minutes, was overall pretty close. But Duke is fast, deep, and talented, and I think it would be difficult (but certainly not impossible) to beat them. Florida State was the dominant team last year and they reloaded this year with transfers and recruits. We're overall an excellent team with a few stars and improving frosh, but we would need a run of excellent play and very good fortune to win a national championship this year, and I fear in the future as well.
I agree strongly with the last paragraph. We looked like the more talented team in most if not all our games from 2017-2019. We don't have that clear talent edge any more and will need a lot of good fortune to win a natty going forward. Even some of our most talented teams with Christen Press and Kelley O'hara as teammates didn't win a championship and recruits of that caliber aren't walking through the door any time soon.
RE: Stanford Women’s soccer 2024 - 82 Card - 10-17-2024
It took till there was only 1 second left on the clock for Stanford to finally put a shot in the goal, beating Louisville 1-0 at Louisville.
After re watching, it looks like the ball went in with a few more seconds left but the clock was run down to 1 second before it was stopped.
RE: Stanford Women’s soccer 2024 - BostonCard - 10-17-2024
Video.
https://x.com/stanfordwsoccer/status/1847081025488506960?s=61
I didn’t realize that college soccer went to a fixed clock and did away with stoppage time.
BC
RE: Stanford Women’s soccer 2024 - martyup - 10-17-2024
(10-17-2024, 07:16 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Video.
https://x.com/stanfordwsoccer/status/1847081025488506960?s=61
I didn’t realize that college soccer went to a fixed clock and did away with stoppage time.
BC
That is amazing! You can hear the announcer counting down the seconds. Can't cut it any closer than that.
Hieronymus - Hieronymus - 10-18-2024
(10-17-2024, 06:14 PM)82 Card Wrote: It took till there was only 1 second left on the clock for Stanford to finally put a shot in the goal, beating Louisville 1-0 at Louisville.
After re watching, it looks like the ball went in with a few more seconds left but the clock was run down to 1 second before it was stopped.
Absolutely dismal first half. Sloooow and sluggish with an unending stream of turnovers. Bhuta was about the only one who didn’t turn it over every touch, but Louisville did an excellent job of limiting her touches. Second half was a little better though Louisville had one off the post and a wide open header on a corner that missed.
Happy for Lumi, but that was a really fortunate result.
RE: Stanford Women’s soccer 2024 - Spiny_Norman - 10-18-2024
The NCAA has released its in-season top 16 ranking based on games played through October 16. Stanford is #7.
1. Duke (11-1-0)
2. North Carolina (13-2-0)
3. Wake Forest (9-2-2)
4. Mississippi St. (12-1-0)
5. Arkansas (11-1-1)
6. Iowa (11-1-3)
7. Stanford (12-2-1)
8. Penn St. (11-3-2)
9. Auburn (12-1-2)
10. Michigan St. (9-1-5)
11. Southern California (11-1-2)
12. UCLA (12-2-2)
13. Ohio St. (10-2-3)
14. TCU (11-2-2)
15. Notre Dame (8-1-3)
16. Pepperdine (9-2-3)
https://www.ncaa.com/news/soccer-women/article/2024-10-17/division-i-womens-soccer-committee-reveals-top-16
Also in the category of "things I learned," only the top 6 teams play in the post-season women's ACC tournament. In contrast, the top 14 get to play in the men's tournament. The Stanford women are currently tied for 3rd. But they have played 8 conference matches while teams just behind them like Florida State, Wake Forest and Notre Dame have only played 6 or 7.
RE: Stanford Women’s soccer 2024 - mbdude - 10-18-2024
could they get in as an at large if they come in 7th?
RE: Stanford Women’s soccer 2024 - Spiny_Norman - 10-18-2024
(10-18-2024, 02:50 PM)mbdude Wrote: could they get in as an at large if they come in 7th?
Stanford could finish 7th in the conference and still get a top 2 or 3 national seed. That's how strong the ACC conference is. But only the top 6 ACC teams will make the ACC tournament.
RE: Stanford Women’s soccer 2024 - Hieronymus - 10-20-2024
That might be a season ender for Aikey. Bullshit cheap lunge tackle from Notre Dame.
Well she is walking though barely, but even a sprain will be weeks.
0:0 at half time. Notre Dame with the much better chances including hitting the crossbar on a corner.
I don’t think some switch is going to flip on this year. And aikey’s injury means winning 1:0 isn’t a consistent option.
Craig with a nice reaction save in the half but she struggling to hold onto the ball.
RE: Stanford Women’s soccer 2024 - Hieronymus - 10-20-2024
Now 2:0 ND.
PK on Harrison.
Massive screw up by Pagador for a turnover on the second.
This isn’t a top 20 team right now. Unlikely to make the ACC tournament.
And now DGSO so red card on Murdock. No idea who plays CB next game. Nobody left.
Now 3-0 ND. Maybe offside. Called good. It probably wasn’t. Biased officiating today.
RE: Stanford Women’s soccer 2024 - Hieronymus - 10-20-2024
Finishes 3:0.
I have changed my mind on the ACC tournament. Better off if they miss it. Team is injured, tired, flat and completely off. Maybe a break helps. Nothing else has lately.
RE: Stanford Women’s soccer 2024 - OCcardinal - 10-25-2024
VA Tech tied vs NC State 0-0 last night. So there's a reasonably viable path for Stanford to edge them for the last spot in the ACC tournament.
If Stanford beats Cal and VA Tech fails to get 3 or more points in its last 2 games (vs Notre Dame and Virginia), Stanford gets in. Notre Dame is on a tear (they scored 3 goals in their tie vs Duke last night) and so should be heavily favored vs VA Tech. The Virginia game could be more of a toss up but VA has had by far the toughest ACC schedule and looked strong in their recent 3-0 victory over NC State. VA Tech has had by far the easiest ACC schedule. They've only played 1 other top 25 ACC team so far. And they've had inconsistent results. They edged Fl St at home 3-2 but have losses to Northwestern, Liberty and Boston College (plus ties with NC St and Miami).
Of course a Stanford victory over Cal is less likely if Aikey is out. I haven't seen anything about her since the ND game.
RE: Stanford Women’s soccer 2024 - Spiny_Norman - 10-27-2024
With one regular season match remaining (vs. Cal this Thursday), Stanford is tied with Notre Dame for 6th place in the ACC. Only the top 6 qualify for the post-season tournament. Stanford lost a regular season match to Notre Dame so I assume they would lose a tiebreaker. Notre Dame's finale is at home vs. Pitt.
Looking at the conference results through 9 matches, Stanford is well behind other top ACC teams in scoring.
Stanford 10 goals for, 10 goals against
Duke 28-8
North Carolina 20-8
Virginia Tech 15-7
Florida State 28-12
Wake Forest 18-7
Notre Dame 18-10
RE: Stanford Women’s soccer 2024 - Hieronymus - 10-31-2024
So far 0:0 vs. Kal. Leontini playing for Kal.
Of note.
1. ND beat Pitt 3:2 so Stanford is eliminated from ACC tourney contention.
2. Aikey out for the year. No real surprise - it looked like a season ending foul by ND.
Injuries have badly hurt the team this year, and they have mostly been concentrated in the worst spots - CF and CB. So far no Thomas either. Not sure what her status is. Klinger starting at CF regardless. Brandt at CB - only option left today
Now 1:0 Kal. Craig misplayed a 35+ yd chip on goal. Not sure Stanford has a shot on goal so far. Nope Kohler has 1. Pretty dismal game though so far.
RE: Stanford Women’s soccer 2024 - Hieronymus - 10-31-2024
Pagador now down with what looks like a non-contact ankle injury and is carried off. I expect that is season ending as well.
Bizarre no call leads to a second Kal goal.
Pk - obvious Kal handball in the box. Scored by Kitahata. 2:1 Kal.
Now 2:2 Stanford. Kitahata to Harrison. Didn’t expect to write that sentence.