Outside Topic Giants/Niners 2021 thread

Outside Topic Giants/Niners 2021 thread - Printable Version

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RE: [merged] Giants/Niners 2021 thread - BostonCard - 09-12-2021

The Blue Jays scored 22 runs today and 44 in their last three.

BC

RE: [merged] Giants/Niners 2021 thread - Phogge - 09-12-2021

Some think Tatis is the best young player. I think it’s Guerrero.

Niners lose Verrett. Mostert is glass but they have Jeff Wilson coming back in five weeks and Mitchell and Hasty are solid. Drafting Kinlaw may be a huuuge mistake. Jones and Givens were shredded in the first half. Aiyuk disappeared.

RE: [merged] Giants/Niners 2021 thread - BostonCard - 09-12-2021

Vlad jr. is leading the league in BA, tied for the league lead in HR, and fifth in the league in RBIs. Were it not for Ohtani, he’d be a shoe in for MVP.

Tatos Jr. is an exciting player, but he’s not at the level of Vlad yet. They are both 22 and have been in the league three years. Both will be exciting for years to come.

BC

RE: [merged] Giants/Niners 2021 thread - DC 86 - 09-13-2021

(09-12-2021, 10:32 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Vlad jr. is leading the league in BA, tied for the league lead in HR, and fifth in the league in RBIs. Were it not for Ohtani, he’d be a shoe in for MVP.

Tatos Jr. is an exciting player, but he’s not at the level of Vlad yet. They are both 22 and have been in the league three years. Both will be exciting for years to come.

BC

Actually Tatis has been far above Vlad's level overall by objective measures.

Even if we restrict the argument to hitting as you did, Vlad's wOBA have been .329, .338 and .425 (.374 overall) while Tatis's wOBA have been .398, .392 and .410 (.402 overall). If you prefer OPS+ Tatis has recorded 154, 156, 173 (162 overall) while Vlad has recorded 105, 115, 174 (137 overall).

Consider that wOBA and OPS+ considers context such as park effects which is why Tatis's (home park: Petco) advanced metrics are relatively stronger than his raw numbers, although his raw numbers are superior to Vlad's as well (Tatis has a higher career batting average, much higher career slugging average - 86 points higher despite his power killing home park - and more career home runs as well).

Indeed Vlad is ahead on raw counting stats this year since Tatis was injured and has played 32 fewer games (about a quarter of a season less). But Vlad is essentially a DH playing the field and a lumbering baserunner while Tatis plays the game's most important defensive position and is an excellent baserunner (25 SB in 28 attempts this year), which is reflected in each player's WAR:

By fWAR Tatis has recorded 3.6, 2.9 and 5.5 (12.1 total) while Vlad is at 0.4, 0.2, 6.4 (7.0 total)
By bWAR Tatis has recorded 4.2, 2.8 and 6.2 (13.1 total) while Vlad is at 2.1, 0.6 and 6.0 (8.7 total)

Of course it's valid to opine about each player's future trajectory, but to date there's no doubt that it's Tatis who has perfomed at a much higher level overall.

Even if we restrict ourselves to this season they have arguably been of similar value (Vlad higher in fWAR, Tatis higher in bWAR), but since WAR is a counting stat it's reasonable to surmise that if Tatis hadn't been injured that he would be far ahead in both versions of WAR. Since he's played 142 game you can argue that Vlad has been more valuable, but he's still not better. And Tatis performed at a much higher level in 2019-2020, only this year has Vlad raised his game to a point that you can compare the two.

RE: [merged] Giants/Niners 2021 thread - BostonCard - 09-13-2021

Thanks for the deep dive, DC. It's a very good point about Petco.

Since I am both a Jays and Pads fan (born in Toronto, graduated high school in San Diego), I'm just glad I will get to root for both (and Tatis for a good long time, given the long term contract he signed).

BC

RE: [merged] Giants/Niners 2021 thread - Phogge - 09-13-2021

Not a stats guy. I like Vlad's stroke.

RE: [merged] Giants/Niners 2021 thread - DC 86 - 09-13-2021

(09-13-2021, 11:59 AM)Phogge Wrote: Not a stats guy. I like Vlad's stroke.

He has a very nice stroke, although he has an unusually flat swing path for a power hitter. His first two seasons it was flat to the point of hitting the ball hard but into the ground; this year he has raised his launch angle enough to produce excellent results which he's likely to maintain going forward.

However, Vlad has to hit way better than Tatis (or Soto or Acuna or the other young stars) to overcome the fact that he's a liability in all the non-batting aspects of the game. He could do it, but it won't be easy.

RE: [merged] Giants/Niners 2021 thread - Phogge - 09-13-2021

I like his smile, his attitude. Tatis is a hot dog and in my time we didn't like weiners.

RE: [merged] Giants/Niners 2021 thread - BobK - 09-13-2021

Chet Johnson Sacramento Solons pitcher in the 50s. brobdingnagian hot dog
Chuck Conners LA Angels in the 50s big hot dog
Carlos Bernier Hollywood Stars in the 50s biggest hot dog.
Loved them all

RE: [merged] Giants/Niners 2021 thread - Phogge - 09-13-2021

Bernier’s manager was Bobby Bragan, a hot dog.

RE: [merged] Giants/Niners 2021 thread - BostonCard - 09-13-2021

Giants won 9-1 and clinched a playoff spot. Congratulations!

BC

RE: [merged] Giants/Niners 2021 thread - BobK - 09-14-2021

I was going to add Bragan but then a long time minor league president. Hot dog to president was a brobdingnagian leap

Giants using relievers with only 3 starting pitchers available and they allow one run strike out 11 become the first team in baseball to clinch a playoff spot. Incredible

RE: [merged] Giants/Niners 2021 thread - Mick - 09-14-2021

I went to the game last night, late Father's Day gift, went with my two sons. Giants put up a 5 spot in the first inning, two home runs and a triple. Four home runs overall (Belt, Longoria, La Stella, Yastrzemski), Wade hit the triple, Crawford his 27th double. Six pitchers combined for seven hits and two walks.

BTW, I really like the bullpen games. Kept the Padre hitters off balance. Six pitchers, six different skill sets, no one went more than two innings.

RE: [merged] Giants/Niners 2021 thread - teejers1 - 09-14-2021

(09-14-2021, 09:05 AM)Mick Wrote: I went to the game last night, late Father's Day gift, went with my two sons. Giants put up a 5 spot in the first inning, two home runs and a triple. Four home runs overall (Belt, Longoria, La Stella, Yastrzemski), Wade hit the triple, Crawford his 27th double. Six pitchers combined for seven hits and two walks.

BTW, I really like the bullpen games. Kept the Padre hitters off balance. Six pitchers, six different skill sets, no one went more than two innings.

Belt's dinger was a BOMB! [I still think the Giants should keep him].

Any concern re: post-season-qualification celebration derailing the Giants in tonight's game? The freaking Dodgers are not letting up much. I'd really appreciate about a 4-game losing streak for the Boys in Blue . . . who just got Kershaw back, btw. Hard to envision that, unfortunately. So the Giants will need to keep on winning at outrageous clip to keep the Dodgers at bay.

RE: [merged] Giants/Niners 2021 thread - BobK - 09-14-2021

At what cost T? The Giants will have to spend on starting pitchers.

RE: [merged] Giants/Niners 2021 thread - BostonCard - 09-14-2021

(09-14-2021, 11:41 AM)teejers1 Wrote:
(09-14-2021, 09:05 AM)Mick Wrote: I went to the game last night, late Father's Day gift, went with my two sons. Giants put up a 5 spot in the first inning, two home runs and a triple. Four home runs overall (Belt, Longoria, La Stella, Yastrzemski), Wade hit the triple, Crawford his 27th double. Six pitchers combined for seven hits and two walks.

BTW, I really like the bullpen games. Kept the Padre hitters off balance. Six pitchers, six different skill sets, no one went more than two innings.

Belt's dinger was a BOMB! [I still think the Giants should keep him].

Any concern re: post-season-qualification celebration derailing the Giants in tonight's game? The freaking Dodgers are not letting up much. I'd really appreciate about a 4-game losing streak for the Boys in Blue . . . who just got Kershaw back, btw. Hard to envision that, unfortunately. So the Giants will need to keep on winning at outrageous clip to keep the Dodgers at bay.

I mean, the Giants have won eight in a row and gained 2.5 games since you posted your concern about the Dodgers tying the Giants, so, I think your concern trolling is doing its job?

Giants have 18 games left; they are three ahead in the loss column. Dodgers can certainly catch up, but it is going to take the Dodgers remaining very hot, and a moderate stumble by the Giants. Like, if the Giants went 9-9, the Dodgers would have to win at a .650 clip to win the division.

538, which has been slow to update their priors on the Giants, gives SF a 2 in 3 chance of winning the division, which sounds about right.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-mlb-predictions/

BC

RE: [merged] Giants/Niners 2021 thread - teejers1 - 09-14-2021

(09-14-2021, 01:44 PM)BostonCard Wrote:
(09-14-2021, 11:41 AM)teejers1 Wrote:
(09-14-2021, 09:05 AM)Mick Wrote: I went to the game last night, late Father's Day gift, went with my two sons. Giants put up a 5 spot in the first inning, two home runs and a triple. Four home runs overall (Belt, Longoria, La Stella, Yastrzemski), Wade hit the triple, Crawford his 27th double. Six pitchers combined for seven hits and two walks.

BTW, I really like the bullpen games. Kept the Padre hitters off balance. Six pitchers, six different skill sets, no one went more than two innings.

Belt's dinger was a BOMB! [I still think the Giants should keep him].

Any concern re: post-season-qualification celebration derailing the Giants in tonight's game? The freaking Dodgers are not letting up much. I'd really appreciate about a 4-game losing streak for the Boys in Blue . . . who just got Kershaw back, btw. Hard to envision that, unfortunately. So the Giants will need to keep on winning at outrageous clip to keep the Dodgers at bay.

I mean, the Giants have won eight in a row and gained 2.5 games since you posted your concern about the Dodgers tying the Giants, so, I think your concern trolling is doing its job?

Giants have 18 games left; they are three ahead in the loss column. Dodgers can certainly catch up, but it is going to take the Dodgers remaining very hot, and a moderate stumble by the Giants. Like, if the Giants went 9-9, the Dodgers would have to win at a .650 clip to win the division.

538, which has been slow to update their priors on the Giants, gives SF a 2 in 3 chance of winning the division, which sounds about right.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-mlb-predictions/

BC

Well, since it's only trolling, I'm sure you'd be "in" for a fair wager: Giants win division, you get a nice bottle of red; Dodgers win the division, I get 2 nice bottles of red. ("Nice" being defined as moderately priced, say below $30/bottle - winner's choice). What say you?

RE: [merged] Giants/Niners 2021 thread - BostonCard - 09-14-2021

(09-14-2021, 03:46 PM)teejers1 Wrote: Well, since it's only trolling, I'm sure you'd be "in" for a fair wager: Giants win division, you get a nice bottle of red; Dodgers win the division, I get 2 nice bottles of red. ("Nice" being defined as moderately priced, say below $30/bottle - winner's choice). What say you?

Unfortunately, since I neither gamble nor drink (to any appreciable degree), this one will have to be for pride alone. Dodgers win, you get to say "I told you so" twice; otherwise, I get to needle you over "all that needless worry" once.

BC

RE: [merged] Giants/Niners 2021 thread - BostonCard - 09-14-2021

Giants win; Dodgers are one out away from keeping pace. Dodgers also clinched a wildcard partly as a result of the Giants beating the Padres.

BC

RE: [merged] Giants/Niners 2021 thread - teejers1 - 09-14-2021

(09-14-2021, 04:21 PM)BostonCard Wrote:
(09-14-2021, 03:46 PM)teejers1 Wrote: Well, since it's only trolling, I'm sure you'd be "in" for a fair wager: Giants win division, you get a nice bottle of red; Dodgers win the division, I get 2 nice bottles of red. ("Nice" being defined as moderately priced, say below $30/bottle - winner's choice). What say you?

Unfortunately, since I neither gamble nor drink (to any appreciable degree), this one will have to be for pride alone. Dodgers win, you get to say "I told you so" twice; otherwise, I get to needle you over "all that needless worry" once.

BC

Any other taker, since BC wants none of it?

BTW, this is akin to me betting against a favored Stanford team in a football game. I'd gladly pay $__ for the W; and the disappointing L will at least be partially offset by some ancillary comfort. I'm applying this approach to the Giants and winning the division, but only to one taker.