Outside Topic SF Giants 2024 - Printable Version
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RE: SF Giants 2024 - Mick - 12-20-2024
(12-19-2024, 05:47 PM)Giants Wrote:(12-19-2024, 05:25 PM)Mick Wrote: Anthony Santander. Upside: 44 home runs, 102 RBI, All Star for Orioles last year, switch hitter, cut down on strikeouts, OPS+ of 134. Neutral: 30 years old, decent right fielder. Negative: low OBP (.308) and low BA (.235).
Jeff Passan and others note that about half of MLB teams want power hitting corner outfielders, but thinks Santander is a tough sell and could maybe be had for cheap. He made $7.4 million as an Oriole. 8 years, $150 mms., my guess.
Of the remaining players who declined a QO, Burnes is SF’s first choice. If he signs with the Giants, I think we can forget any other players who turned down QO. And yes, I am optimistic Burnes will be heading to the Bay Area.
Excellent. I would will be delighted with Burnes, and less excited about Santander.
Five thoughts re: Burnes:
1. I'm guessing eight or nine years, $240 mms. to $250 mms. (given Fried's $218 mms.).
2. Unlike Snell, consistent durability and superb accomplishments, including top 8 Cy Young voting the last five years in a row. He's only 30.
3. He's a local guy (St. Mary's, Bakersfield) and I think he'd like to come here.
4. He's love to pitch in Oracle Park. He would have given up eight fewer home runs over the last three seasons (per attached article).
5. Giants payroll is currently $167 mms. projected to be just under $200 mms. They can afford Burnes as they have a long way to go to hit the $241 mms. Competitive Balance Tax threshold.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/burneco01.shtml
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/tax/_/year/2025/sort/cap_maximum_space2
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/san-francisco-giants-could-make-240-million-bid-for-star-pitcher-after-christmas/ar-AA1wbW5f?ocid=msedgntp&pc=HCTS&cvid=7701dde307454435b34d69ad603b205d&ei=47
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Mick - 12-20-2024
Questions for Giants (and anyone else who cares to answer):
1. Do the Giants keep Doval?
2. Do the Giants keep Jerar Encarnacion?
3. Do the Giants keep Flores or seek another 1B?
4. Do the Giants make a big trade for an OF or 1B?
5. Do the Giants start 34 year old Yaz with Jung Hoo Lee and Heliot Ramos, or do they trade Yaz?
6. What is likely to happen to Meckler, Matos, Luciano and McCray?
7. Will Eldridge be up to the big club this year?
8. The Giants are happy with Bailey. Are they happy with Sabol and Murphy, or do they want another backup catcher? Remember, Sabol had the third best OPS on the club.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - lex24 - 12-21-2024
(12-20-2024, 09:41 AM)Mick Wrote: Questions for Giants (and anyone else who cares to answer):
1. Do the Giants keep Doval?
Probably. Although see 4.
2. Do the Giants keep Jerar Encarnacion?
I doubt it. Don’t see him cracking top 13 and he’s out of options.
3. Do the Giants keep Flores or seek another 1B?
I think Giants will sign Goldschmidt.
4. Do the Giants make a big trade for an OF or 1B?
Doubt it. Naylor is a possibility. If they do, Doval could be part of return package. I think chances for “big trade” increase if they sign Burnes. That makes it possible to include Harrison or Birdsong, who are, I believe, the most marketable of the players they’d think of trading. .
5. Do the Giants start 34 year old Yaz with Jung Hoo Lee and Heliot Ramos, or do they trade Yaz?
Yaz starts. Not traded.
6. What is likely to happen to Meckler, Matos, Luciano and McCray?
Matos will be 4th. Both Meckler and McCray will do at least one stint in SF but start year in Sac. Luciano is the wild card. No clue. Matos, Meckler and Luciano will be out of options at end of year. So, it’s a key time. If Giants make a trade, Luciano could be part of it.
7. Will Eldridge be up to the big club this year?
Yes. July 1.
8. The Giants are happy with Bailey. Are they happy with Sabol and Murphy, or do they want another backup catcher? Remember, Sabol had the third best OPS on the club.
Sabol had 31 MLB PA’s. His OPS is irrelevant. He had a poor year at Sac. And he’s weak defensively. No chance he backs up. Giants picked up Max Stassi. He will battle Murphy. If Murphy is healthy he, unfortunately, gets back up. Bad signing. 8 million contract over 2 years. Zaidi got him cause he hits lefties. Typical Zaidi margin move. Unfortunately, he can’t throw the ball to second base…. Zaidi never cared much about defense or speed. Just power.
triangle2 - triangle2 - 12-21-2024
lex24 dateline='[url=tel:1734794397' Wrote: 1734794397[/url]']
Mick dateline='[url=tel:1734712885' Wrote: 1734712885[/url]']
Questions for Giants (and anyone else who cares to answer):
1. Do the Giants keep Doval?
Probably. Although see 4.
2. Do the Giants keep Jerar Encarnacion?
I doubt it. Don’t see him cracking top 13 and he’s out of options.
3. Do the Giants keep Flores or seek another 1B?
I think Giants will sign Goldschmidt.
4. Do the Giants make a big trade for an OF or 1B?
Doubt it. Naylor is a possibility. If they do, Doval could be part of return package. I think chances for “big trade” increase if they sign Burnes. That makes it possible to include Harrison or Birdsong, who are, I believe, the most marketable of the players they’d think of trading. .
5. Do the Giants start 34 year old Yaz with Jung Hoo Lee and Heliot Ramos, or do they trade Yaz?
Yaz starts. Not traded.
6. What is likely to happen to Meckler, Matos, Luciano and McCray?
Matos will be 4th. Both Meckler and McCray will do at least one stint in SF but start year in Sac. Luciano is the wild card. No clue. Matos, Meckler and Luciano will be out of options at end of year. So, it’s a key time. If Giants make a trade, Luciano could be part of it.
7. Will Eldridge be up to the big club this year?
Yes. July 1.
8. The Giants are happy with Bailey. Are they happy with Sabol and Murphy, or do they want another backup catcher? Remember, Sabol had the third best OPS on the club.
Sabol had 31 MLB PA’s. His OPS is irrelevant. He had a poor year at Sac. And he’s weak defensively. No chance he backs up. Giants picked up Max Stassi. He will battle Murphy. If Murphy is healthy he, unfortunately, gets back up. Bad signing. 8 million contract over 2 years. Zaidi got him cause he hits lefties. Typical Zaidi margin move. Unfortunately, he can’t throw the ball to second base…. Zaidi never cared much about defense or speed. Just power.
Goldschmidt to the Yankees. I’m fine avoiding a 37 year old who isn’t a Brandon.
Here’s a fever dream: imagine if Buster can sign both Sasaki and Burnes. All of a sudden, the bottom of the rotation looks like Harrison and Ray if he can stay healthy, and Hicks if he can’t. Suddenly we’d have depth and trade-able starters from the pool of youngsters (Roupp, Birdsong, Black, Winn, Whisenhunt etc.) which might bring in a younger 1B or outfielder with some pop.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Giants - 12-21-2024
(12-20-2024, 09:41 AM)Mick Wrote: Questions for Giants (and anyone else who cares to answer):
1. Do the Giants keep Doval?
2. Do the Giants keep Jerar Encarnacion?
3. Do the Giants keep Flores or seek another 1B?
4. Do the Giants make a big trade for an OF or 1B?
5. Do the Giants start 34 year old Yaz with Jung Hoo Lee and Heliot Ramos, or do they trade Yaz?
6. What is likely to happen to Meckler, Matos, Luciano and McCray?
7. Will Eldridge be up to the big club this year?
8. The Giants are happy with Bailey. Are they happy with Sabol and Murphy, or do they want another backup catcher? Remember, Sabol had the third best OPS on the club.
1. Yes. Both Posey and Melvin have stated they believe Doval can make a comeback to his previous form. Of course, that could be just window dressing as they prepare to move him. However, I think they are sincere and plan to keep him.
2./3. Encarnacion and Flores play the same role. Only one will make the team. At this point, I think Flores has an edge. Also, the desire to mix/match to fill the DH spot rather than utilize a single player works against Encarnacion. I do not foresee a trade for a 1B unless they can find a one-year rental who is clearly an upgrade over the short term pairing of Wade/Flores.
4. There are very few available OF’s that could make a difference. Unless Posey is willing to give up valued prospects, it is unlikely SF will make a deal. Also, assuming Burnes signs a significant contract, there isn’t a lot of money left to pay a highly regarded OF. The Giants were one of nine franchises to pay the luxury tax in 2024. They need to get under the $241MM figure to reset the tax level in 2026.
5./6. I think Yaz might be dealt. If he isn’t, he could be the 4th OF this year. I think that at least one of the young guys will break through (see 2024 Ramos). I would guess Matos would be the guy. He has had a strong winter ball season and might be ready to step up to play RF regularly. I like Meckler as the 5th OF with Luciano and McCray starting the season in Sacramento. Having said that, the OF situation is very fluid. If anyone gets particularly hot in the spring, they could be heading north.
7. By the All-Star break. Elridge needs more seasoning, especially his defense. Will Clark is the point person in bringing him up to speed. Now, if he could only play like Clark, the Giants would finally have a long term solution to their 1B problem.
8. Murphy has the contract; Murphy has the job. Of course, it wasn’t Posey who signed Murphy so there is a possibility he could eat Murphy’s contract and find someone else. Regardless, it won’t be Sabol, he is a defensive liability (with Murphy being marginally better).
Note: Let’s set the bar low and say 3 out of 6 (taking into account the combined questions) is a passing grade.
UPDATE: it is being reported that Goldschmidt will sign a one year deal for $12.5M with the Yankees.
lex24 - lex24 - 12-21-2024
(12-21-2024, 12:30 PM)Giants Wrote:(12-20-2024, 09:41 AM)Mick Wrote: Questions for Giants (and anyone else who cares to answer):
1. Do the Giants keep Doval?
2. Do the Giants keep Jerar Encarnacion?
3. Do the Giants keep Flores or seek another 1B?
4. Do the Giants make a big trade for an OF or 1B?
5. Do the Giants start 34 year old Yaz with Jung Hoo Lee and Heliot Ramos, or do they trade Yaz?
6. What is likely to happen to Meckler, Matos, Luciano and McCray?
7. Will Eldridge be up to the big club this year?
8. The Giants are happy with Bailey. Are they happy with Sabol and Murphy, or do they want another backup catcher? Remember, Sabol had the third best OPS on the club.
1. Yes. Both Posey and Melvin have stated they believe Doval can make a comeback to his previous form. Of course, that could be just window dressing as they prepare to move him. However, I think they are sincere and plan to keep him.
2./3. Encarnacion and Flores play the same role. Only one will make the team. At this point, I think Flores has an edge. Also, the desire to mix/match to fill the DH spot rather than utilize a single player works against Encarnacion. I do not foresee a trade for a 1B unless they can find a one-year rental who is clearly an upgrade over the short term pairing of Wade/Flores.
4. There are very few available OF’s that could make a difference. Unless Posey is willing to give up valued prospects, it is unlikely SF will make a deal. Also, assuming Burnes signs a significant contract, there isn’t a lot of money left to pay a highly regarded OF. The Giants were one of nine franchises to pay the luxury tax in 2024. They need to get under the $241MM figure to reset the tax level in 2026.
5./6. I think Yaz might be dealt. If he isn’t, he could be the 4th OF this year. I think that at least one of the young guys will break through (see 2024 Ramos). I would guess Matos would be the guy. He has had a strong winter ball season and might be ready to step up to play RF regularly. I like Meckler as the 5th OF with Luciano and McCray starting the season in Sacramento. Having said that, the OF situation is very fluid. If anyone gets particularly hot in the spring, they could be heading north.
7. By the All-Star break. Elridge needs more seasoning, especially his defense. Will Clark is the point person in bringing him up to speed. Now, if he could only play like Clark, the Giants would finally have a long term solution to their 1B problem.
8. Murphy has the contract; Murphy has the job. Of course, it wasn’t Posey who signed Murphy so there is a possibility he could eat Murphy’s contract and find someone else. Regardless, it won’t be Sabol, he is a defensive liability (with Murphy being marginally better).
Note: Let’s set the bar low and say 3 out of 6 (taking into account the combined questions) is a passing grade.
UPDATE: it is being reported that Goldschmidt will sign a one year deal for $12.5M with the Yankees.
So much for my Goldy prediction. Frankly, it was more of a hope. He would’ve been a very nice one year add.
Also, whomever backs up Bailey will be a right handed hitter. Bailey is a much better hitter from the left side.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Mick - 12-23-2024
(12-21-2024, 12:30 PM)Giants Wrote:(12-20-2024, 09:41 AM)Mick Wrote: 6. What is likely to happen to Meckler, Matos, Luciano and McCray?5./6. I think Yaz might be dealt. If he isn’t, he could be the 4th OF this year. I think that at least one of the young guys will break through (see 2024 Ramos). I would guess Matos would be the guy. He has had a strong winter ball season and might be ready to step up to play RF regularly. I like Meckler as the 5th OF with Luciano and McCray starting the season in Sacramento. Having said that, the OF situation is very fluid. If anyone gets particularly hot in the spring, they could be heading north.
UPDATE: it is being reported that Goldschmidt will sign a one-year deal for $12.5M with the Yankees.
Both Flores and Matos had an exceptional 2023 and an execrable 2024. Hopefully both come back strong in 2025. I think Matos has amazing potential and maybe Flores has another good year or two in him.
UPDATE: Sean Manaea signed with the Mets for three years and $75 million. That's Sean Manaea, $25 mms. per year with the 4.44 ERA in 2023 with the Giants, giving up 14 HRs in 117 innings pitched. Sean Manaea. But, at age 32, he had a career best 12-6 record with a career best 3.47 ERA. Presto, the 33/34/35 year old Manaea gets $75 million from Steve Cohen. Can't believe it.
lex24 - lex24 - 12-23-2024
Mick dateline='[url=tel:1734969382' Wrote: 1734969382[/url]']
Giants dateline='[url=tel:1734809407' Wrote: 1734809407[/url]']
Mick dateline='[url=tel:1734712885' Wrote: 1734712885[/url]']5./6. I think Yaz might be dealt. If he isn’t, he could be the 4th OF this year. I think that at least one of the young guys will break through (see 2024 Ramos). I would guess Matos would be the guy. He has had a strong winter ball season and might be ready to step up to play RF regularly. I like Meckler as the 5th OF with Luciano and McCray starting the season in Sacramento. Having said that, the OF situation is very fluid. If anyone gets particularly hot in the spring, they could be heading north.
6. What is likely to happen to Meckler, Matos, Luciano and McCray?
UPDATE: it is being reported that Goldschmidt will sign a one-year deal for $12.5M with the Yankees.
Both Flores and Matos had an exceptional 2023 and an execrable 2024. Hopefully both come back strong in 2025. I think Matos has amazing potential and maybe Flores has another good year or two in him.
UPDATE: Sean Manaea signed with the Mets for three years and $75 million. That's Sean Manaea, $25 mms. per year with the 4.44 ERA in 2023 with the Giants, giving up 14 HRs in 117 innings pitched. Sean Manaea. But, at age 32, he had a career best 12-6 record with a career best 3.47 ERA. Presto, the 33/34/35 year old Manaea gets $75 million from Steve Cohen. Can't believe it.
Giants misused Manaea. He also changed his arm slot mid way last year and pitched very well after that. Mets betting on that continuing. They didn’t have to the QO penalty other teams would have had to pay.,Plus, Cohen doesn’t care how much he spends.
RE: lex24 - Mick - 12-23-2024
(12-23-2024, 09:03 AM)lex24 Wrote:Mick dateline='[url=tel:1734969382' Wrote: 1734969382[/url]']
Giants dateline='[url=tel:1734809407' Wrote: 1734809407[/url]']
Mick dateline='[url=tel:1734712885' Wrote: 1734712885[/url]']5./6. I think Yaz might be dealt. If he isn’t, he could be the 4th OF this year. I think that at least one of the young guys will break through (see 2024 Ramos). I would guess Matos would be the guy. He has had a strong winter ball season and might be ready to step up to play RF regularly. I like Meckler as the 5th OF with Luciano and McCray starting the season in Sacramento. Having said that, the OF situation is very fluid. If anyone gets particularly hot in the spring, they could be heading north.
6. What is likely to happen to Meckler, Matos, Luciano and McCray?
UPDATE: it is being reported that Goldschmidt will sign a one-year deal for $12.5M with the Yankees.
Both Flores and Matos had an exceptional 2023 and an execrable 2024. Hopefully both come back strong in 2025. I think Matos has amazing potential and maybe Flores has another good year or two in him.
UPDATE: Sean Manaea signed with the Mets for three years and $75 million. That's Sean Manaea, $25 mms. per year with the 4.44 ERA in 2023 with the Giants, giving up 14 HRs in 117 innings pitched. Sean Manaea. But, at age 32, he had a career best 12-6 record with a career best 3.47 ERA. Presto, the 33/34/35 year old Manaea gets $75 million from Steve Cohen. Can't believe it.
Giants misused Manaea. He also changed his arm slot mid way last year and pitched very well after that. Mets betting on that continuing. They didn’t have to the QO penalty other teams would have had to pay.,Plus, Cohen doesn’t care how much he spends.
I'm just amazed at the overall pitching market. Walker Buehler, 1-6 with a 5.38 ERA/5.54 FIP in 2024, who didn't pitch in 2023, gets one year, $21 mms. from Boston. He's had two great years, 2019 and 2021 and lots of injuries before and after.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Giants - 12-23-2024
Top of the rotation pitching has always been very expensive. The change recently has been the cost of mid-rotation pitching. It has exploded.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Mick - 12-23-2024
Ex-Giant, ex-St. Francis slugger Joc Pederson, 2 years, $37 million with the Rangers.
His line last year was .275/.393/.515/.908 with a 151 OPS+, pretty close to his first year (all-star year) with the Giants. 2.9 WAR, second best of his 11-year career. His OPS was 10th in MLB for all batters with at least 350 ABs.
Fun fact: Joc is notably a poor fielder, relegated to LF in general if not DH, but in 2016, he had the third best fielding percentage among NL center fielders.
Oddball note: in 449 plate appearances, Joc led the NL with 18 HBP, a career high.
Ex-Dodgers slugger signs two-year, $37 million deal with Rangers
RE: SF Giants 2024 - BobK - 12-23-2024
Joc Pederson of Palo Alto HS. :)
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Mick - 12-28-2024
(12-23-2024, 03:00 PM)BobK Wrote: Joc Pederson of Palo Alto HS. :)
Excuse me, Paly. One of those rich kid high schools...
Burnes has now turned down more money from the Giants to sign with the Diamondbacks. State tax issues cited as a reason. AZ state income tax rate 2.5%, CA rate 13.3% effectively about 12.5% for Burnes at $35 million in annual income, he'll save about $3.5 million in annual taxes playing for the D'Backs.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/other/mlb-rumors-the-3-teams-corbin-burnes-spurned-to-sign-with-the-diamondbacks/ar-AA1wCNj1?ocid=BingNewsSerp
RE: SF Giants 2024 - skip75 - 12-28-2024
(12-28-2024, 10:56 AM)Mick Wrote:As opposed to St. Francis?!?(12-23-2024, 03:00 PM)BobK Wrote: Joc Pederson of Palo Alto HS. :)
Excuse me, Paly. One of those rich kid high schools...
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Mick - 12-28-2024
(12-28-2024, 12:12 PM)skip75 Wrote:(12-28-2024, 10:56 AM)Mick Wrote:As opposed to St. Francis?!?(12-23-2024, 03:00 PM)BobK Wrote: Joc Pederson of Palo Alto HS. :)
Excuse me, Paly. One of those rich kid high schools...
Not "as opposed to", I meant "including." I get confused on the mid-peninsula rich kid high schools...
With Burnes off the board, the Giants might consider Jack Flaherty. Aside from Snell, Flaherty had the best strikeout rate and the best strikeout to walk ratio. 3.17 ERA, 1.068 WHIP. And he's only 29. NYT projects 4 years, $92 mms. Lots cheaper than Burnes.
Then a long, long drop down to the next best, maybe Nick Pivetta. Great strikeout/walk ratio, but gave up 28 HRs in 145 innings at Fenway. Baseball Savant shows not much better at Oracle. Only major interesting split point is that he is terrible pitching at Oracle, it's his second-worst park after Coors Field. Not a good sign. Andrew Heaney could probably be had for cheap. Neither Pivetta nor Heaney represent an upgrade over the Giants' current pitching staff.
Maybe Jose Quintana as a one year stopgap. Slow starter, ERA of 5.50 in mid-May, but was 3.21 ERA over his last 23 starts. One year, $9 million.
Hope we get Sasaki.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - lex24 - 12-28-2024
Depressing.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Mick - 12-29-2024
I think at this point the Giants need both Flaherty and Santander.
The 2025 luxury tax threshold is $241 mms., total current projected allocations are $157 mms. but doesn't include certain items calculated in the total for purposes of measuring the amount measured against the $241 mms. cap, so I defer to Giants as to the "actual" payroll.
Santander will probably take 5 years, $100 million. Jack Flaherty will probably take 5 years, $115 mms. $43 million in annual salary.
Giants, would that pencil? Are we in the running for either or both?
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Giants - 12-30-2024
2025 salary status…
Signed players - $152,660,000
Arbitration estimates for Wade, Doval and Ty. Rogers - $13,750,000
Prearb players expected to be on 26 man roster - $9,600,000
Other (including minor league players on 40 man roster) - $7,959,000
True Up for Solar trade - $1,875,484
Expected prearb bonuses - $1,666,667
Player benefits - $17,500,000
Total - $205,011,151 (this figures reflects the salary data that is utilized to determine CBT status).
CBT limit - $241,000,000
Available - $35,988,849 (including player benefits and prorated bonus payments).
Using your salary expectations*, SF could not sign both Santander and Flaherty without exceeding the CBT.
Note: This assumes any salaries paid would not be deferred and would be paid equally on an annual basis over the life of the contract.
*Santander - $20,000,000 million annually
*Flaherty - $23,000,000 million annually
Also, Santander is a QO opt-out. Does SF want to forfeit a couple draft choices (in addition to those surrendered as part of the Adames signing)? I don’t think so.
In summary, sign Flaherty, trade for another OF, save some cash for mid-season deals and remain under the CBT.
Source: Cot’s Baseball Contracts (a subset of Baseball Prospectus)
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Mick - 12-30-2024
Outstanding, thanks for the analysis. And I'm assuming that the Giants have finally finished paying Melancon $1 mms. per season.
Trading for an outfielder, which of these would you prioritize? All have been mentioned at one time or another that they're on the trading block:
1. Jazz Chisholm, NYY, 27, /.273 .325 .500 .825, pre-arb to 2025.
2. Brent Rooker, Oak/Sacto, 30, / .293 .365 .562 .927, arb in 2025...maybe pull in Oak A's fans? Be expensive in prospects...
3. Brendan Donovan, St. L, 28, / .278 .342 .417 .759, 34 doubles and ramping up, arb in 2025
4. Taylor Ward, LAA, 31 / .246 .323 .426 .748, 25 HRs, 26 doubles, $4.8 mms. rising to $9.2 mms., arb in 2025
5. JJ Bleday, Oak/Sacto, 27 / .243 .324 .437 .762, 43 doubles, 20 HRs
I omitted players like Luis Robert (Chisox, $15 mms.), Jesse Winker (Yaz copy), Randy Arozarena (a little better than Yaz), Tommy Pham, Pillar, Miguel Andujar, etc.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Mick - 12-30-2024
Looks like we were never really in it for Burnes. Makes me wonder if Flaherty is even a possibility.
https://www.yardbarker.com/mlb/articles/san_francisco_giants_werent_aggressive_on_top_free_agent_ace_report/s1_17096_41484555
Apparently the Giants are actively considering trading Late Night LaMonte (or moving him to DH) and acquiring Pete Alonso:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/12/giants-considering-pete-alonso.html
If I read this correctly, Bleacher Report thinks the Giants have the worst farm system in MLB:
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10148856-updated-mlb-farm-system-rankings-for-the-2024-25-offseason