End of Pac12? - Printable Version
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RE: End of Pac12? - msqueri - 07-01-2022
(06-30-2022, 10:34 PM)ColoradoTree Wrote: If the choice was Big Ten without Cal or be left out and stay with Cal… this isn't a hard choice. Annual OOC rivalry game, and we schedule them in Olympic sports because of proximity. BYU-Utah style. It’s fine.
I care infinitely more about Stanford sports and their continued success (and heck, survival) than I do about the Cal rivalry.
To be clear, I wish I could have both, and screw the LA schools for doing this to the rest of us, but it’s every man for himself now, and I don’t want to be left behind.
I think this and OutsiderFan's take are 100 percent the right take on this.
Big 10 is the option for survival, and I think we could be attractive to them. But there will be multiple schools wanting to get in on the super conference action and it's not clear to me if Stanford will jockey for it.
RE: End of Pac12? - jonnyss - 07-01-2022
tara is interviewed in today's chronicle article on ucla & usc moving. she points out that football is the only sport that plays one game a week. she adds that traveling cross country twice in a week will be quite problematic for all the other sports.
RE: End of Pac12? - msqueri - 07-01-2022
(07-01-2022, 10:34 AM)jonnyss Wrote: tara is interviewed in today's chronicle article on ucla & usc moving. she points out that football is the only sport that plays one game a week. she points out that traveling cross country twice in a week will be quite problematic for all the other sports.
Yes, it sucks. But she shouldn't get to make the call. We are dead if we don't go with the big boys. If we want women's basketball to be the biggest sports program at the school, ok. But if we care about football and men's basketball, the Pac-12 or some new configuration of West Coast programs sans-USC/UCLA (and maybe sans Oregon/Washington if they get into a super conference) or going independent are all paths to irrelevance as an athletic department.
To me the best case scenario for us by far is one where the good Pac-12 programs get swallowed up by the Big 10, which would save West Coast football/basketball by affiliating us with an actually relevant conference and would mitigate the travel issue by allowing us to play the bulk of our games with some combination of USC, UCLA, Oregon, Washington, Cal. The problem is I have low confidence that will actually be the landing spot. The Big 10 will have a lot of schools that want in to the 20+ team super conference and I don't know if the eventual outcome ends up looking how I want it to.
RE: End of Pac12? - Phogge - 07-01-2022
I just realized that Carlmont is a high school. Stanford might even get a win.
As for the idea of a Bay Area Conference we Gators might be able to craft a team but with the renovation of Cox Stadium it would be played on a 90 yard field.
RE: End of Pac12? - BigJohn043 - 07-01-2022
(07-01-2022, 07:41 AM)Goose Wrote:(07-01-2022, 01:15 AM)TriangleTree Wrote: Stanford surely has the appeal to get an invite to one of the new super conferences, right?I seriously doubt Stanford has the appeal to get an invite to the B1G, at least in the immediate future. If U$C and UCLA joining turns out to be geographically untenable, or if the B1G is trying to create a "national super conference" to rival the SEC (and look like the NFL), some other PAC-12 schools may get/be allowed to join. Stanford doesn't deliver the Bay Area television market. Stanford + Kal doesn't either. We don't draw big crowds and probably never will. I think Oregon is marginal at best because their State is just too small. Washington and Utah have larger TV markets in their immediate urban area. In the past, nobody took Utah seriously. Lots of reason to believe nobody will now. Under those constraints, I don't see an offer being extended. We don't get the chance to say "no" IMHO.
Would we really turn it down?
First I find it really hard to believe that USC/UCLA went if they were going to be the only west coast schools. The travel is awful. That works for football but is really bad for everything else. So my guess is that they got assurances that more invites were coming. FWIW, if asked I would guess that USC/UCLA would ask for Stanford/cal. Easiest travel, lots of historic connections, etc.
But this whole thing is being driven by Fox. What do they want, ratings. The Bay Area media market is #6 in the country. I don't either Stanford or cal "deliver" that, but it is a consideration for lots of reasons.
But what Fox really wants is teams that will get ratings. Oregon is a small media market but people will tune in for Duck football. They have been good for a long time. They have the splashy unis. etc.
UW at least has some history. SEA is a big media market and they do bring that. SEA is a big airport. UO would probably want UW.
After that we are probably #3. We have been relevant in football not that long ago. We do bring the Bay Area tech whole thing. That matters. The minor sports success matters a bit. And while Fox is driving the process, the B10 presidents are academics and wouldn't mind being associated with Stanford....
RE: End of Pac12? - OutsiderFan - 07-01-2022
The "we would dilute the revenues of the other schools" as a reason the Big Ten wouldn't accept Stanford, is a red herring. There is nothing that guarantees each new member will get the same amount as the last one to join. I wouldn't be surprised if USC is getting a larger share than UCLA.
If...
- Stanford and Cal were going to get $30M each in the Pac-12, and...
- Original Big Ten members were going to get $50M payouts
There is no federal statute that requires Stanford and Cal to get $50M as new members. New members can accept deals to take less in order to stay alive in the big time level. And frankly, Stanford can easily afford taking less money to maintain its place in big league college sports given its massive wealth. Cal has no such wealth or near the donor culture Stanford does.
RE: End of Pac12? - BigJohn043 - 07-01-2022
(07-01-2022, 10:55 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: The "we would dilute the revenues of the other schools" as a reason the Big Ten wouldn't accept Stanford, is a red herring. There is nothing that guarantees each new member will get the same amount as the last one to join. I wouldn't be surprised if USC is getting a larger share than UCLA.
If...
- Stanford and Cal were going to get $30M each in the Pac-12, and...
- Original Big Ten members were going to get $50M payouts
There is no federal statute that requires Stanford and Cal to get $50M as new members. New members can accept deals to take less in order to stay alive in the big time level. And frankly, Stanford can easily afford taking less money to maintain its place in big league college sports given its massive wealth. Cal has no such wealth or near the donor culture Stanford does.
I think both the SEC and the B10 are equal shares conferences. The only one I know that wasn't was the B12.
RE: End of Pac12? - Goose - 07-01-2022
(07-01-2022, 10:55 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: There is no federal statute that requires Stanford and Cal to get $50M as new members. New members can accept deals to take less in order to stay alive in the big time level. And frankly, Stanford can easily afford taking less money to maintain its place in big league college sports given its massive wealth. Cal has no such wealth or near the donor culture Stanford does.Perhaps Stanford could take less money. Do you think for a moment all the big egos involved would agree to that and agree that this fact be made public? I really doubt any school would agree to be a "second class citizen" in a conference. The optics are horrible. I can imagine a conference split where the conference champions in each sport get an appropriate "bonus" or something like that, but an "N tiered" membership IMHO strains credulity.
RE: End of Pac12? - 81alum - 07-01-2022
(07-01-2022, 10:34 AM)jonnyss Wrote: tara is interviewed in today's chronicle article on ucla & usc moving. she points out that football is the only sport that plays one game a week. she adds that traveling cross country twice in a week will be quite problematic for all the other sports.Thanks, Jonnyss.
Quote:“First things like NIL, everything with the NCAA is moving so quick,” VanDerveer said. “This is just another thing that makes you feel like your head is spinning.”
RE: End of Pac12? - chrisk - 07-01-2022
Stanford and Cal play in the America East conference for field hockey.
So there is a model for non-revenue sports to play conference games on the
opposite coast.
RE: End of Pac12? - OutsiderFan - 07-01-2022
(07-01-2022, 11:04 AM)Goose Wrote:(07-01-2022, 10:55 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: There is no federal statute that requires Stanford and Cal to get $50M as new members. New members can accept deals to take less in order to stay alive in the big time level. And frankly, Stanford can easily afford taking less money to maintain its place in big league college sports given its massive wealth. Cal has no such wealth or near the donor culture Stanford does.Perhaps Stanford could take less money. Do you think for a moment all the big egos involved would agree to that and agree that this fact be made public? I really doubt any school would agree to be a "second class citizen" in a conference. The optics are horrible. I can imagine a conference split where the conference champions in each sport get an appropriate "bonus" or something like that, but an "N tiered" membership IMHO strains credulity.
Compromises are made all the time to ensure survival. No Hatfield is going to starve to death because only McCoy's can provide food they are willing to provide. Agreements can always be changed. I think it's more than fair that schools get shares based on their enrollment. Stanford would be way down the list if that metric were used.
When there is a will, there is always a way. The question is whether enough will exists to keep Stanford and Cal in big league college sports. I honestly don't know, but I lean towards that will not existing. The only thing that gives me pause is that Oregon and Washington make sports an even higher priority than Stanford and they are seemingly in the wilderness now too, and I wouldn't have guessed that would be the case.
RE: End of Pac12? - BostonCard - 07-01-2022
(07-01-2022, 11:01 AM)BigJohn043 Wrote: I think both the SEC and the B10 are equal shares conferences. The only one I know that wasn't was the B12.
Maryland and Rutgers get less than the original B1G schools.
BC
Matt is right of course, that the only way to remain relevant is to hope that the Big-gazillion makes Stanford an offer. The rationale is that Stanford does give the B1G a patina of legitimacy that there is some sort of reason that this is not just for the money and that academics might matter, even though we all know it is all about the money. Secondly there is the media market, even though Stanford has the Bay Area as a media market in the way Rutgers has the New York City media market. The third reason is that it makes some sense for there to be more Western teams for USC and UW to play against. You might even imagine there being 4 6-team divisions, with the LA schools, Bay Area schools, UW and Oregon making up the west division.
All that being said, I’m not sure that that is enough for the BigTen and even if it were, I’m not sure that Stanford should go down the road. It is not at all student-athlete centric and makes a mockery of the idea that there is some balance between athletics and academics.
At some point, you have to reach the end of the road, and I think we are there.
It’s a bit sad, but all good things must end.
BC
RE: End of Pac12? - Giants - 07-01-2022
(07-01-2022, 11:45 AM)BostonCard Wrote:(07-01-2022, 11:01 AM)BigJohn043 Wrote: I think both the SEC and the B10 are equal shares conferences. The only one I know that wasn't was the B12.
Maryland and Rutgers get less than the original B1G schools.
BC
Matt is right of course, that the only way to remain relevant is to hope that the Big-gazillion makes Stanford an offer. The rationale is that Stanford does give the B1G a patina of legitimacy that there is some sort of reason that this is not just for the money and that academics might matter, even though we all know it is all about the money. Secondly there is the media market, even though Stanford has the Bay Area as a media market in the way Rutgers has the New York City media market. The third reason is that it makes some sense for there to be more Western teams for USC and UW to play against. You might even imagine there being 4 6-team divisions, with the LA schools, Bay Area schools, UW and Oregon making up the west division.
All that being said, I’m not sure that that is enough for the BigTen and even if it were, I’m not sure that Stanford should go down the road. It is not at all student-athlete centric and makes a mockery of the idea that there is some balance between athletics and academics.
At some point, you have to reach the end of the road, and I think we are there.
It’s a bit sad, but all good things must end.
BC
Maryland and Rutgers began receiving a full share effective with the 2020-21 academic year.
After an introductory period, a full and equal share is a given.
RE: End of Pac12? - Goose - 07-01-2022
(07-01-2022, 12:24 PM)Giants Wrote:It is reasonable to accept a "break-in" period, especially if you are pretty desperate to join a new conference, which certainly Rutgers was. However, permanent second-class citizenship IMHO would be a deal-breaker. It will be interesting to know what the terms are for U$C and UCLA. I for one can't ever see the Toejams signing at anything less than parity. That would be accepting U$C football was second-rate and I can't see them doing it. The Toejams aren't exactly desperate to leave the PAC-12. While the situation may not be great, it is not yet dire. Accepting a "break-in" period could possibly, maybe be swallowed, but even that IMHO is problematic. Given U$C's present money problems, I would expect that they need the money sooner rather than later.(07-01-2022, 11:45 AM)BostonCard Wrote:(07-01-2022, 11:01 AM)BigJohn043 Wrote: I think both the SEC and the B10 are equal shares conferences. The only one I know that wasn't was the B12.
Maryland and Rutgers get less than the original B1G schools.
BC
Matt is right of course, that the only way to remain relevant is to hope that the Big-gazillion makes Stanford an offer. The rationale is that Stanford does give the B1G a patina of legitimacy that there is some sort of reason that this is not just for the money and that academics might matter, even though we all know it is all about the money. Secondly there is the media market, even though Stanford has the Bay Area as a media market in the way Rutgers has the New York City media market. The third reason is that it makes some sense for there to be more Western teams for USC and UW to play against. You might even imagine there being 4 6-team divisions, with the LA schools, Bay Area schools, UW and Oregon making up the west division.
All that being said, I’m not sure that that is enough for the BigTen and even if it were, I’m not sure that Stanford should go down the road. It is not at all student-athlete centric and makes a mockery of the idea that there is some balance between athletics and academics.
At some point, you have to reach the end of the road, and I think we are there.
It’s a bit sad, but all good things must end.
BC
Maryland and Rutgers began receiving a full share effective with the 2020-21 academic year.
After an introductory period, a full and equal share is a given.
RE: End of Pac12? - grendalor - 07-01-2022
CBS is reporting that Oregon and Washington made inquiries of the B1G and were basically told "not now". See: https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/pac-12-exploring-expansion-options-as-big-ten-informs-oregon-washington-its-standing-pat-for-now/
I think if this is the case, Stanford and Cal are certainly on the outside as well, at least for now. That suggests to me that the Pac12 and B12 will at least seriously discuss merging in some fashion -- unless other opportunities arise that, yet again, change the scope of possibilities. It's obviously a fast-changing situation.
RE: End of Pac12? - TooMuchTV - 07-01-2022
(06-30-2022, 09:27 PM)winflop Wrote:If you ever did, you were doing it wrong. ;)(06-30-2022, 09:25 PM)needle Wrote:(06-30-2022, 09:13 PM)winflop Wrote:(06-30-2022, 07:48 PM)jonnyss Wrote: another example of thinking $ rather than students.
and fans. and it's been like this for more than a decade to an ever-increasing extent
So, as Stanford fans, do we want a Big 10 invite?
I feel like most of us would say definitely maybe, given the lack of optimism about any alternatives.
Yes, but only because it's least bad alternative
F U$C & UCLA. I'll never root for them in anything ever again.
RE: End of Pac12? - Phogge - 07-01-2022
Yeah BC all good things come to an end sometime. I'm pretty sure that I still think life was better with the Seals.
RE: End of Pac12? - Mick - 07-01-2022
(07-01-2022, 05:05 AM)Maple Leaf Wrote: Northern Cal Big 10:
Sonoma State
SF State
SJ State
USF
Santa Clara
Saint Mary's
Sac State
Davis
Cal
Stanford
The league is sponsored by the Northern California Cannabis Growers Association. No problem with playing big time NIL/Free Agency with the big boys (or now little boys) in the midwest and south, plus no salary cap!
You forgot Humboldt State and Chico State, long-time -- nay, one might say founding -- members of the Northern California Cannabis Growers Association.
RE: End of Pac12? - chrisk - 07-01-2022
Dallas Morning News on Pac-12 / Big-12 merger
FULL MERGER UNLIKELY: In Dallas, Kevin Sherrington writes it is possible the Pac-12 and Big 12 will “come up with a plan to strengthen marketability and leverage in TV negotiations,” but it is doubtful to be a “full-on merger.” Pac-12 schools “reportedly have issues with some of the Texas schools” (DALLAS MORNING NEWS, 7/1).
https://www.sportsbusinessjournal.com/Daily/Issues/2022/07/01/Colleges/Pac-12-future-Kliavkoff.aspx
RE: End of Pac12? - Softball Fan - 07-01-2022
Pac-12 schools “reportedly have issues with some of the Texas schools”
I suspect UC regents would not allow Cal to play in the same conference as Baylor and TCU.