Outside Topic Giants/Niners 2021 thread - Printable Version
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RE: [merged] Giants/Niners 2021 thread - Phogge - 10-08-2021
Next time he runs Arno’s Mane Man should deliver. Paid 12.20 last time out. Hardly anybody attends the track anymore because of online betting. Going to be a great Breeders Cup at Del Mar. Fab field in the Classic and Life is Good in the dirt mile probably going off at 1 to 2.
RE: [merged] Giants/Niners 2021 thread - Mick - 10-08-2021
Tonight's game will be interesting, Logan Webb vs. Walker Buehler.
Webb last pitched on Saturday. Most effective NL pitcher since May, he's devastating when he pitches at home (1.96 ERA, 6-0 record this year), devastating in the second half (1.038 WHIP, 7-0 record), and devastating with five days of rest (4-0, 2.31 ERA), and finally, he's 1-0 in three starts against the Dodgers with a 2.25 ERA, but more importantly a 0.688 WHIP -- by far the best against any of the 13 teams against which he's had a decision. Webb does considerably better during night games, 2.34 ERA vs. 3.98. He has a 1.96 ERA at Oracle.
Buehler last pitched on Sunday. Hehas given up one run in his last two starts, 3.08 ERA away from home, 7-3 in the second half, 4.83 ERA in Sept/Oct, 3.09 ERA on four days of rest, with 1.123 WHIP. Buehler has a 3-1 record vs. Giants, 2.19 ERA this season, 0.973 WHIP. Buehler is a strong pitcher either day or night, ERA is virtually identical. Buehler has a 3.71 ERA at Oracle.
I don't know who will win tonight, and I won't prognosticate, but if I had to independently select one of the two pitchers above, I'd take Webb. Pitching at home, very motivated, at night, with an extra day's worth of rest.
BTW, this is the first time the Dodgers and Giants have met in the playoffs. 1951 and 1962 were considered part of the regular season.
Position by position comparison:
Catcher: Giants small advantage with Posey.
1B: Muncy and Belt both out. Giants backups slightly better with Ruf, Wade and Flores
2B: Big advantage Dodgers, weakest part of SFG day to day lineup.
SS: Crawford has an advantage this year, with his career year renaissance.
3B: Justin Turner, advantage over Longoria
LF: I'd take Bryant/Wade/Ruf over AJ Pollock and his terrible October stats
CF: I actually prefer Duggar/Slater/Yastrzemski over former MVP, now nosediving Cody Bellinger.
RF: Mookie Betts over Yastrzemski/Wade/Bryant. Slight Dodger advantage.
SP: Slight advantage Dodgers (game 3, really)
RP: Slight advantage Giants
MGR/Coaches: I'll take Kapler and Wotus over Johnson and Bob Geren. And the Giants 17 listed coaches and bullpen catchers versus the Dodgers 12 listed coaches and bullpen catchers.
RE: [merged] Giants/Niners 2021 thread - Phogge - 10-08-2021
Buehler has tight pants, think he will be tight.
RE: [merged] Giants/Niners 2021 thread - teejers1 - 10-08-2021
(10-08-2021, 09:27 AM)Mick Wrote: Tonight's game will be interesting, Logan Webb vs. Walker Buehler.
Webb last pitched on Saturday. Most effective NL pitcher since May, he's devastating when he pitches at home (1.96 ERA, 6-0 record this year), devastating in the second half (1.038 WHIP, 7-0 record), and devastating with five days of rest (4-0, 2.31 ERA), and finally, he's 1-0 in three starts against the Dodgers with a 2.25 ERA, but more importantly a 0.688 WHIP -- by far the best against any of the 13 teams against which he's had a decision. Webb does considerably better during night games, 2.34 ERA vs. 3.98. He has a 1.96 ERA at Oracle.
Buehler last pitched on Sunday. Hehas given up one run in his last two starts, 3.08 ERA away from home, 7-3 in the second half, 4.83 ERA in Sept/Oct, 3.09 ERA on four days of rest, with 1.123 WHIP. Buehler has a 3-1 record vs. Giants, 2.19 ERA this season, 0.973 WHIP. Buehler is a strong pitcher either day or night, ERA is virtually identical. Buehler has a 3.71 ERA at Oracle.
I don't know who will win tonight, and I won't prognosticate, but if I had to independently select one of the two pitchers above, I'd take Webb. Pitching at home, very motivated, at night, with an extra day's worth of rest.
BTW, this is the first time the Dodgers and Giants have met in the playoffs. 1951 and 1962 were considered part of the regular season.
Position by position comparison:
Catcher: Giants small advantage with Posey.
1B: Muncy and Belt both out. Giants backups slightly better with Ruf, Wade and Flores
2B: Big advantage Dodgers, weakest part of SFG day to day lineup.
SS: Crawford has an advantage this year, with his career year renaissance.
3B: Justin Turner, advantage over Longoria
LF: I'd take Bryant/Wade/Ruf over AJ Pollock and his terrible October stats
CF: I actually prefer Duggar/Slater/Yastrzemski over former MVP, now nosediving Cody Bellinger.
RF: Mookie Betts over Yastrzemski/Wade/Bryant. Slight Dodger advantage.
SP: Slight advantage Dodgers (game 3, really)
RP: Slight advantage Giants
MGR/Coaches: I'll take Kapler and Wotus over Johnson and Bob Geren. And the Giants 17 listed coaches and bullpen catchers versus the Dodgers 12 listed coaches and bullpen catchers.
I'd give Dodgers the advantage in both SP and the bullpen.
Gausman is still shaky. Yeah, his last start was good, but the opponent was chasing crap out of the strike zone. The Dodgers won't do that. I expect Gausman to struggle in Game 2, which is why tonight is particularly important for the Giants, imo. And effing Buehler is good, too.
RE: [merged] Giants/Niners 2021 thread - teejers1 - 10-08-2021
(10-07-2021, 07:56 AM)Mick Wrote:(10-07-2021, 07:17 AM)lex24 Wrote:(10-06-2021, 10:51 PM)Phogge Wrote: OK Lex, I’ll bet you a box of IT’s It that Kershaw signs somewhere else.
It wasn’t me that suggested that he will stay. I think he may retire.
Tommy Edman came up big. Had a terrific game. Offensively and defensively. Rest of the offense was AWOL. Knew game was going to come down to HR.
Giants are going to have to find ways to score beyond the long ball. Tough task. They have to get down to 26. My guess is Dickerson won’t be on roster. Not as sure about pitching staff. Figure 13. 4 starters plus Doval, Rogers, Leone. Alvarez, Littell Garcia, McKee (if healthy) Castro and Cueto.
Position Locks (12): Posey, Casali, Bryant, Crawford, La Stella, Solano, Flores, Longoria, Ruf, Yastrzemski, Wade, Slater
Bubble (1 or 2): Duggar, Dickerson, Estrada, Vosler, Dubon, Bart. I think they keep one, and I think it's Duggar.
SP Locks (4): Webb, Gausman, Wood, DeSclefani
RP Locks (6): McGee, Doval, Rogers, Leone, Garcia, Alvarez
Bubble (7): Cueto, Littell, Castro, Jackson, Long, Baragar, Brebbia. I think it's Cueto, Littell and Castro.
Almost nailed it 100% (Cueto out; Dickerson in) . . . right?
RE: [merged] Giants/Niners 2021 thread - Mick - 10-08-2021
(10-08-2021, 10:45 AM)teejers1 Wrote: I'd give Dodgers the advantage in both SP and the bullpen.
Gausman is still shaky. Yeah, his last start was good, but the opponent was chasing crap out of the strike zone. The Dodgers won't do that. I expect Gausman to struggle in Game 2, which is why tonight is particularly important for the Giants, imo. And effing Buehler is good, too.
The recent emergence of Doval turns it for me to SF's relief pitching advantage. Statistically speaking, SF's relievers outduel the Dodgers by 3.7 WAR to 2.8 WAR in 2021. Dodgers have a brobdingnagian lead in starting pitching WAR, 12.8 to 7.6, which included Trevor Bauer (no longer available).
Gausman gave up one run in seven innings, throwing 63 strikes in 84 pitches with 17 swing and misses against the Padres. For the two months before that, he was good, not great.
Giants have positional WAR lead at catcher (1.5 to 1.3), 1B (1.9 to 1.1), SS (4.1 to 2.6), CF (1.0 to -1.4), RF (0.6 to 0.1) and PH (0.5 to -0.9). Dodgers lead at 2B, 3B and LF.
The potential starting lineup from sfgiants.com:
Tommy La Stella, 2B
LaMonte Wade Jr., RF
Buster Posey, C
Brandon Crawford, SS
Darin Ruf, 1B
Kris Bryant, LF
Mike Yastrzemski, CF
Evan Longoria, 3B
Logan Webb, RHP
RE: [merged] Giants/Niners 2021 thread - teejers1 - 10-08-2021
(10-08-2021, 02:30 PM)Mick Wrote:(10-08-2021, 10:45 AM)teejers1 Wrote: I'd give Dodgers the advantage in both SP and the bullpen.
Gausman is still shaky. Yeah, his last start was good, but the opponent was chasing crap out of the strike zone. The Dodgers won't do that. I expect Gausman to struggle in Game 2, which is why tonight is particularly important for the Giants, imo. And effing Buehler is good, too.
The recent emergence of Doval turns it for me to SF's relief pitching advantage. Statistically speaking, SF's relievers outduel the Dodgers by 3.7 WAR to 2.8 WAR in 2021. Dodgers have a of immense proportions lead in starting pitching WAR, 12.8 to 7.6, which included Trevor Bauer (no longer available).
Gausman gave up one run in seven innings, throwing 63 strikes in 84 pitches with 17 swing and misses against the Padres. For the two months before that, he was good, not great.
Giants have positional WAR lead at catcher (1.5 to 1.3), 1B (1.9 to 1.1), SS (4.1 to 2.6), CF (1.0 to -1.4), RF (0.6 to 0.1) and PH (0.5 to -0.9). Dodgers lead at 2B, 3B and LF.
The potential starting lineup from sfgiants.com:
Tommy La Stella, 2B
LaMonte Wade Jr., RF
Buster Posey, C
Brandon Crawford, SS
Darin Ruf, 1B
Kris Bryant, LF
Mike Yastrzemski, CF
Evan Longoria, 3B
Logan Webb, RHP
Doval certainly has closer's stuff (as I menioned way back when). The question is: can he maintain calm demeanor (which translates to throwing his fastball for strikes) in playoffs? That will be one big key for the Giants.
I have long believed that McKee does not have real closer stuff (fastball too flat); but otoh, I have my doubts about Janzen, too. I don't think he is all that, either.
P.S. Bryant has been a bit of a disappointment lately. Would be great to see him get a little hot in the playoffs (but if I'm being honest, I don't expect that). In fact, I expect the Giants will have trouble scoring (hope Dodgers do, too).
RE: [merged] Giants/Niners 2021 thread - BostonCard - 10-08-2021
Does the calculation on relief pitchers take into account the 5th starter, who would presumably move to the bullpen for the series?
Note also that I think Kershaw is out for the series.
BC
RE: [merged] Giants/Niners 2021 thread - qwerty49 - 10-08-2021
I
(10-08-2021, 02:04 PM)teejers1 Wrote:(10-07-2021, 07:56 AM)Mick Wrote:(10-07-2021, 07:17 AM)lex24 Wrote:(10-06-2021, 10:51 PM)Phogge Wrote: OK Lex, I’ll bet you a box of IT’s It that Kershaw signs somewhere else.
It wasn’t me that suggested that he will stay. I think he may retire.
Tommy Edman came up big. Had a terrific game. Offensively and defensively. Rest of the offense was AWOL. Knew game was going to come down to HR.
Giants are going to have to find ways to score beyond the long ball. Tough task. They have to get down to 26. My guess is Dickerson won’t be on roster. Not as sure about pitching staff. Figure 13. 4 starters plus Doval, Rogers, Leone. Alvarez, Littell Garcia, McKee (if healthy) Castro and Cueto.
Position Locks (12): Posey, Casali, Bryant, Crawford, La Stella, Solano, Flores, Longoria, Ruf, Yastrzemski, Wade, Slater
Bubble (1 or 2): Duggar, Dickerson, Estrada, Vosler, Dubon, Bart. I think they keep one, and I think it's Duggar.
SP Locks (4): Webb, Gausman, Wood, DeSclefani
RP Locks (6): McGee, Doval, Rogers, Leone, Garcia, Alvarez
Bubble (7): Cueto, Littell, Castro, Jackson, Long, Baragar, Brebbia. I think it's Cueto, Littell and Castro.
Almost nailed it 100% (Cueto out; Dickerson in) . . . right?
I haven’t seen the press. Did they give a reason for Cueto?
RE: [merged] Giants/Niners 2021 thread - BostonCard - 10-08-2021
Ok, who is watching the playoff game and who is watching STanford-ASU?
Giants up 2-0 early.
BC
RE: [merged] Giants/Niners 2021 thread - BobK - 10-08-2021
Both and a bit of Stanford wvb. Which they just won 3-0
RE: [merged] Giants/Niners 2021 thread - BostonCard - 10-08-2021
Giants won. So at least, we got that.
BC
RE: [merged] Giants/Niners 2021 thread - Phogge - 10-08-2021
Why would I watch a mediocre team when a great one is playing?
RE: [merged] Giants/Niners 2021 thread - Mick - 10-08-2021
Both games were jaw dropping for different reasons...
RE: [merged] Giants/Niners 2021 thread - BostonCard - 10-08-2021
I mean ASU is a pretty good team.
BC
RE: [merged] Giants/Niners 2021 thread - teejers1 - 10-08-2021
(10-08-2021, 07:45 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Ok, who is watching the playoff game and who is watching STanford-ASU?
Giants up 2-0 early.
BC
Watched every pitch of the Giants game and not a single play of the ASU-Stanford football game.
For the first time in my life, I'm more emotionally attached to a pro sports team than I am to Stanford football.
I gotta be honest: Shaw's style has been a big contributor to the detachment.
On the bright side, lopsided games (at least from score and box) don't impose the slightest burn . . . which is a welcome change.
RE: [merged] Giants/Niners 2021 thread - BostonCard - 10-08-2021
Truth be told, for whatever reason, the game was not that hard to watch. There was a fair bit of good football being played, just mostly from the ASU side. And despite some gaping talent holes, there was a bit of good that came from the game. Yarusek had a breakout game, 6 catches for 118 yards, and a fair number of them on third and long for a first down. The defense was beaten quite soundly early, and then stiffened up. ASU’s offense scored a touchdown on its first three possessions and was six for six on third down conversions, and then the defense got better; bending a bit but coming up with some big plays when it counted. ASU’s offense never scored after about 5 minutes in the second quarter, and wound up converting one for its last seven third downs. McKee was up and down, getting some balls into some incredibly tight windows, but also throwing a few bonehead ones (yes, the three INTs, but also a couple near misses). Give ASU’s defense some credit; they made us one-dimensional and then made us pay for it. And critically, ASU didn’t shoot itself in the foot - they wound up +2 on turnovers, and until our final drive, had only one penalty. I think overall, had it been backwards (STanford +2 turnovers and ASU more like 90 yards worth of penalties, this game would have been strangely winnable.
The flashing warning signs are the brutally atrocious running game, a miserable game for the offensive line, shady tackling for much of the game, and getting run all over.
We are not a good team, but I don’t think we are a miserable team either. I still think we can eek out another three wins against the softer part of our schedule, even if OSU will be a tougher out than I had expected.
BC
lex24 - lex24 - 10-09-2021
(10-08-2021, 11:22 PM)teejers1 Wrote:(10-08-2021, 07:45 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Ok, who is watching the playoff game and who is watching STanford-ASU?
Giants up 2-0 early.
BC
Watched every pitch of the Giants game and not a single play of the ASU-Stanford football game.
For the first time in my life, I'm more emotionally attached to a pro sports team than I am to Stanford football.
I gotta be honest: Shaw's style has been a big contributor to the detachment.
On the bright side, lopsided games (at least from score and box) don't impose the slightest burn . . . which is a welcome change.
Watched Giants, then second half…..
(10-08-2021, 04:20 PM)qwerty49 Wrote: I(10-08-2021, 02:04 PM)teejers1 Wrote:(10-07-2021, 07:56 AM)Mick Wrote:(10-07-2021, 07:17 AM)lex24 Wrote:(10-06-2021, 10:51 PM)Phogge Wrote: OK Lex, I’ll bet you a box of IT’s It that Kershaw signs somewhere else.
It wasn’t me that suggested that he will stay. I think he may retire.
Tommy Edman came up big. Had a terrific game. Offensively and defensively. Rest of the offense was AWOL. Knew game was going to come down to HR.
Giants are going to have to find ways to score beyond the long ball. Tough task. They have to get down to 26. My guess is Dickerson won’t be on roster. Not as sure about pitching staff. Figure 13. 4 starters plus Doval, Rogers, Leone. Alvarez, Littell Garcia, McKee (if healthy) Castro and Cueto.
Position Locks (12): Posey, Casali, Bryant, Crawford, La Stella, Solano, Flores, Longoria, Ruf, Yastrzemski, Wade, Slater
Bubble (1 or 2): Duggar, Dickerson, Estrada, Vosler, Dubon, Bart. I think they keep one, and I think it's Duggar.
SP Locks (4): Webb, Gausman, Wood, DeSclefani
RP Locks (6): McGee, Doval, Rogers, Leone, Garcia, Alvarez
Bubble (7): Cueto, Littell, Castro, Jackson, Long, Baragar, Brebbia. I think it's Cueto, Littell and Castro.
Almost nailed it 100% (Cueto out; Dickerson in) . . . right?
I haven’t seen the press. Did they give a reason for Cueto?
No reason that I saw. But the decision to only keep 12 pitchers essentially made the decision easy. Castro has been very good down the stretch. And no one else was truly on the bubble.
RE: [merged] Giants/Niners 2021 thread - lex24 - 10-09-2021
Interesting piece of Kapler in The Athletic. Talks about his growth etc. Here’s a snippet:
“From nearly a dozen interviews with Giants players and coaches, it’s clear that nobody has influenced Kapler’s in-game managerial style more than his decorated, three-time World Series champion catcher. Posey offers his opinion on a pitcher’s stuff from inning to inning. He is a conduit to the clubhouse. He has become a lodestar whose brightness overrides any temptation to seek a minor statistical advantage in one area that might inadvertently weaken another.”
I wonder if Buster will manage one day. Any of you still question his HOF credentials?
RE: [merged] Giants/Niners 2021 thread - Mick - 10-09-2021
(10-09-2021, 09:01 AM)lex24 Wrote: Interesting piece of Kapler in The Athletic. Talks about his growth etc. Here’s a snippet:
“From nearly a dozen interviews with Giants players and coaches, it’s clear that nobody has influenced Kapler’s in-game managerial style more than his decorated, three-time World Series champion catcher. Posey offers his opinion on a pitcher’s stuff from inning to inning. He is a conduit to the clubhouse. He has become a lodestar whose brightness overrides any temptation to seek a minor statistical advantage in one area that might inadvertently weaken another.”
I wonder if Buster will manage one day. Any of you still question his HOF credentials?
Great question. On the one hand, Bochy has made comments similar to those of Kapler's. On the other hand, I've always thought it was difficult for HoF-level players to manage. But it seems to me -- just gut feel, no empirical evidence -- that for every Frank Chance (10 winning seasons in 11, including the Cubs' two World Series), there's a dozen Roger Craigs/Dusty Bakers/Gabe Kaplers/Tony LaRussas/Walter Alstons, etc. It could happen. About 1 in 5 Hall of Famers (63 of 333) end up managing for at least a season. Nine of the 19 catchers in the Hall of Fame also managed.
BTW, Ted Williams was in the bottom five in terms of winning percentage as a manager.
Do you think Buster will end up managing?