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RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - OutsiderFan - 09-12-2023
(09-07-2023, 09:45 AM)Giants Wrote:OutsiderFan dateline='[url=tel:1694096921' Wrote: 1694096921[/url]']
Giants dateline='[url=tel:1694090559' Wrote: 1694090559[/url]']
Whoa - you were wrong about August. You said 11-16, they were 12-15. Don’t forget August has 31 days.
Whatever. The point is, my assessment of the team was correct. They suck and aren't making the playoffs.
Nice try. You stated, “I exactly predicted the Giants August record…”. No you didn’t. Then you brush it off with a “whatever”.
You lose all credibility when you cannot admit you posted an incorrect statement. Then you compound your mistake when you reply with a weak rejoinder.
Who is going to take seriously when you can’t acknowledge that you are wrong sometimes. You just spout stuff and think you are always right. That may work for some people, but here, you need to be honest. If you are going to make predictions, prepare for being wrong more often than not (most sports predictions are…). There is nothing weak about admitting you are not infallible. Give it a try. You will feel better about yourself………
When did I ever say I am infallible? I make mistakes all the time but usually play devil's advocate on everything, only making predictions when I have a lot of confidence.
But I will cop to one of my worst assessments ever. I thought Tua Tagavailoa was way overrated and would never have drafted him.
I'm sorry for making a rounding error on my Giants prediction. I got confused by the San Diego series because I didn't like counting it as an August game, but I still had the Giants winning that one. I did get every series prediction in the month correct other than the first 2 of the month, but in the end it all evened out, as it is virtually impossible to predict every game outcome correct. Like when I predicted the Warriors to go 18-10 over their final 18 games last season, I had the overall record correct, but I think 6 games I had the outcome wrong. So on a game-game basis I went 12-6, which is pretty good, but certainly not as accurate as getting the 18-10 correct.
I didn't make a Giants prediction in September because I had no feel for it like I did August. And though I made a mistake with counting the games/months and wasn't exact as a result, this is much more like horseshoes than darts, and my assessment that they would struggle was correct, and that they would fall behind the Cubs was also accurate.
I still believe the Giants are just teasing. The only way they make the playoffs - something I'm not sure I even want to see - is if they go at least 6-4 over their last 10 against the Dodgers and Padres. Just don't see it happening. I still think the Reds are gonna eke out the 3rd spot. The D-Backs, Giants, and Marlins have tougher schedules.
Anyway, here's an interesting article I swear I had no hand in getting published...
https://www.mccoveychronicles.com/2023/9/11/23868386/matos-effect-san-francisco-giants-luis-matos-300-hitter
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - Giants - 09-12-2023
OutsiderFan dateline='[url=tel:1694518648' Wrote: 1694518648[/url]']
Giants dateline='[url=tel:1694105130' Wrote: 1694105130[/url]']
OutsiderFan dateline='[url=tel:1694096921' Wrote: 1694096921[/url]']
Giants dateline='[url=tel:1694090559' Wrote: 1694090559[/url]']
Whoa - you were wrong about August. You said 11-16, they were 12-15. Don’t forget August has 31 days.
Whatever. The point is, my assessment of the team was correct. They suck and aren't making the playoffs.
Nice try. You stated, “I exactly predicted the Giants August record…”. No you didn’t. Then you brush it off with a “whatever”.
You lose all credibility when you cannot admit you posted an incorrect statement. Then you compound your mistake when you reply with a weak rejoinder.
Who is going to take seriously when you can’t acknowledge that you are wrong sometimes. You just spout stuff and think you are always right. That may work for some people, but here, you need to be honest. If you are going to make predictions, prepare for being wrong more often than not (most sports predictions are…). There is nothing weak about admitting you are not infallible. Give it a try. You will feel better about yourself………
When did I ever say I am infallible? I make mistakes all the time but usually play devil's advocate on everything, only making predictions when I have a lot of confidence.
But I will cop to one of my worst assessments ever. I thought Tua Tagavailoa was way overrated and would never have drafted him.
I'm sorry for making a rounding error on my Giants prediction. I got confused by the San Diego series because I didn't like counting it as an August game, but I still had the Giants winning that one. I did get every series prediction in the month correct other than the first 2 of the month, but in the end it all evened out, as it is virtually impossible to predict every game outcome correct. Like when I predicted the Warriors to go 18-10 over their final 18 games last season, I had the overall record correct, but I think 6 games I had the outcome wrong. So on a game-game basis I went 12-6, which is pretty good, but certainly not as accurate as getting the 18-10 correct.
I didn't make a Giants prediction in September because I had no feel for it like I did August. And though I made a mistake with counting the games/months and wasn't exact as a result, this is much more like horseshoes than darts, and my assessment that they would struggle was correct, and that they would fall behind the Cubs was also accurate.
I still believe the Giants are just teasing. The only way they make the playoffs - something I'm not sure I even want to see - is if they go at least 6-4 over their last 10 against the Dodgers and Padres. Just don't see it happening. I still think the Reds are gonna eke out the 3rd spot. The D-Backs, Giants, and Marlins have tougher schedules.
Anyway, here's an interesting article I swear I had no hand in getting published...
https://www.mccoveychronicles.com/2023/9/11/23868386/matos-effect-san-francisco-giants-luis-matos-300-hitter
Here is a quote…
“I exactly predicted the Giants August record.”
Here is another quote…
“…because I didn’t like counting it as an August game.”
We do not get to choose when a month begins and ends, That was a job Pope Gregory addressed in the 16th Century.
Had you decided not to include the August 31st game in your prediction, you would not have noted 27 games in that prediction. Once you committed to 27 games, you included the August 31 contest.
Regardless, there is never a need to apologize for inaccurate predictions. Simply acknowledge them and move on to the next one.
Now, speaking of predictions, here is a pretty safe one - Atlanta will win the World Series this year. Feel free to remind me about this around Halloween.
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - cardcrimson - 09-13-2023
(09-07-2023, 07:52 AM)lex24 Wrote:(09-07-2023, 07:28 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:(09-07-2023, 05:42 AM)Giants Wrote: Whoa - you were wrong about August. You said 11-16, they were 12-15. Don’t forget August has 31 days.
Whatever. The point is, my assessment of the team was correct. They suck and aren't making the playoffs.
No. They are average. And they are by no means out of WC race. If they lose the series at home to Rockies, I’ll run the white flag. Next 6 will tell the story. 5-1.
Well, s%$# Lex. There you go getting it right. They sweep the Rockies and come back to win the rubber match against Cleveland. 5 and 1. At the moment though, they are indeed above average yet still tight for a playoff spot.
(09-12-2023, 12:27 PM)Giants Wrote: Now, speaking of predictions, here is a pretty safe one - Atlanta will win the World Series this year. Feel free to remind me about this around Halloween.
I'm thinking the Braves will revert back about 25 years:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfGxsl-P5cU
Gotta love that song is on my 16 year old daughter's playlist. At least I can explain some meaning in today's songs that aren't references to PBR and BFE. . . .
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - lex24 - 09-13-2023
3 out of 4 in Colorado and split with Snakes.
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - Mick - 09-13-2023
Four teams within 0.5 games of each other right this very second...Giants have 7 against the Dodgers and three against the Padres. Could be a challenge...
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - lex24 - 09-14-2023
(09-13-2023, 10:20 PM)Mick Wrote: Four teams within 0.5 games of each other right this very second...Giants have 7 against the Dodgers and three against the Padres. Could be a challenge...
I’ll repeat 85 gets them in - if that includes at least a split with Snakes. They own tiebreaker against Cincy and Marlins. They are 6-5 vs Snakes. So, a split gives them tiebreaker. They need to go 10-6 to hit 85.
3-1 at Colorado
1-1 at Ariz
2-2 at LA
2-1 vs Pads
2-1 vs LA.
Going to be interesting to see how Kapler sets his staff for Ariz. Webb goes tonight, weather permitting. (And that’s questionable). That means he could go Tuesday on his normal 4. Otherwise, Tues is Harrison’s turn (on 5 days rest). I think it’s possible he starts Webb Tuesday and goes to a bullpen game on Wed, with Harrison coming in after an opener.
Rain is forecast for tonight, which could mean a DH sometime this weekend. That would screw things up.
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - Mick - 09-14-2023
ESPN's playoff odds has the four teams within 1/2 game of each other with their current record and the percentage chances at making the playoffs, as of this a.m.:
Giants, 75-71, 40%
Diamondbacks, 76-71, 34.6%
Reds, 76-71, 29.6%
Marlins, 75-71, 23.4%
Interestingly, they give the Giants the best odds of the four at making the final wild card spot in the playoffs. The Braves (100%), Dodgers (99.9%), Brewers (99.7%), Phillies (95.8%) and Cubs (76.9%) appear to have the top five spots close to sewn up.
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - lex24 - 09-14-2023
(09-14-2023, 09:37 AM)Mick Wrote: ESPN's playoff odds has the four teams within 1/2 game of each other with their current record and the percentage chances at making the playoffs, as of this a.m.:
Giants, 75-71, 40%
Diamondbacks, 76-71, 34.6%
Reds, 76-71, 29.6%
Marlins, 75-71, 23.4%
Interestingly, they give the Giants the best odds of the four at making the final wild card spot in the playoffs. The Braves (100%), Dodgers (99.9%), Brewers (99.7%), Phillies (95.8%) and Cubs (76.9%) appear to have the top five spots close to sewn up.
My guess it’s because they own tiebreakers.
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - Mick - 09-14-2023
(09-14-2023, 09:44 AM)lex24 Wrote:(09-14-2023, 09:37 AM)Mick Wrote: ESPN's playoff odds has the four teams within 1/2 game of each other with their current record and the percentage chances at making the playoffs, as of this a.m.:
Giants, 75-71, 40%
Diamondbacks, 76-71, 34.6%
Reds, 76-71, 29.6%
Marlins, 75-71, 23.4%
Interestingly, they give the Giants the best odds of the four at making the final wild card spot in the playoffs. The Braves (100%), Dodgers (99.9%), Brewers (99.7%), Phillies (95.8%) and Cubs (76.9%) appear to have the top five spots close to sewn up.
My guess it’s because they own tiebreakers.
Diamondbacks have the Giants, Yankees, Cubs, Mets, White Sox and Astros and Miami has the Mets for six, the Brewers, Braves and Pirates...I understand both of those, very tough schedules relative to the Giants. But the Reds have an easier schedule, based on records (Mets, Pirates, Guardians, Cardinals). Unless they have a bunch of injuries, I wonder if the Reds should be favored.
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - lex24 - 09-14-2023
(09-14-2023, 09:52 AM)Mick Wrote:(09-14-2023, 09:44 AM)lex24 Wrote:(09-14-2023, 09:37 AM)Mick Wrote: ESPN's playoff odds has the four teams within 1/2 game of each other with their current record and the percentage chances at making the playoffs, as of this a.m.:
Giants, 75-71, 40%
Diamondbacks, 76-71, 34.6%
Reds, 76-71, 29.6%
Marlins, 75-71, 23.4%
Interestingly, they give the Giants the best odds of the four at making the final wild card spot in the playoffs. The Braves (100%), Dodgers (99.9%), Brewers (99.7%), Phillies (95.8%) and Cubs (76.9%) appear to have the top five spots close to sewn up.
My guess it’s because they own tiebreakers.
Diamondbacks have the Giants, Yankees, Cubs, Mets, White Sox and Astros and Miami has the Mets for six, the Brewers, Braves and Pirates...I understand both of those, very tough schedules relative to the Giants. But the Reds have an easier schedule, based on records (Mets, Pirates, Guardians, Cardinals). Unless they have a bunch of injuries, I wonder if the Reds should be favored.
It’s all guesswork. Yours is as good as there’s.
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - Giants - 09-14-2023
Detroit 8 Cincinnati 2
Yep, it’s all guesswork.
One of my favorite stories from long ago…
When the Giants were playing Philadelphia near the end of a season in which the Giants were battling for the pennant and the Phils were horrible, Lon Simmons mentioned that one of his kids said she felt sorry for the Phils because they were so bad and had no chance against SF. Simmons told his kid that you never feel sorry for anyone in baseball you never know when they will beat you and mess up your chance to win a pennant.
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - Mick - 09-14-2023
The Giants just became the first MLB team to commit their 100th error. And yet...
- They have committed more errors than the league average at every position but third base.
- They are the seventh-best team in the major leagues with 15 Outs Above Average, which grades them at above average at every infield position.
- Bailey is MLB's second best catcher with 16 fielding runs saved.
Giants WAR by position among 30 MLB teams:
Relief pitching, 4th
1B, 7th
SP, 10th
DH, 13th
RF, 15th
PH, 20th
2B, 21st
Catching, 21st (season-long and with Sabol, Bart, etc. Bailey is 1st in caught stealing #s, 2nd in NL in assists, 3rd in caught stealing percentage, 5th in range factor...but also 3rd in passed balls and 4th in errors.
3B, 23rd
LF, 23rd
CF, 26th
SS, 29th
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - Giants - 09-14-2023
After today’s games…
SF is .0002 (one game ahead in the loss column) ahead of their nearest competitor for the #3 WC spot.
With tonight’s Giants game rained out, SF will end the day in a WC spot without throwing a pitch.
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - Mick - 09-14-2023
(09-14-2023, 04:14 PM)Giants Wrote: After today’s games…
SF is .0002 (one game ahead in the loss column) ahead of their nearest competitor for the #3 WC spot.
With tonight’s Giants game rained out, SF will end the day in a WC spot without throwing a pitch.
Tonight's game is being made up on Saturday as a doubleheader. I wonder if Kapler still intends Bailey to catch both ends? He said that Bailey needs to catch the rest of the games from here on out. Yogi Berra did it 117 times. Non-HoFer Bill Freehan did it 55 times. Gary Carter did it 34 times. Bench and Fisk did it 15/13 times. Dietz did it three times. Sadek and Santiago did it twice. Bob Boone, Piazza, Manwaring, Molina, Hill, Brenly did it once apiece, as did my old buddy Dann Bilardello from my high school. I'm guessing he didn't get a hit in either game. Posey and Matheny never did it. Different era...
P. S. Bob Uecker did it four times. Not sure what that says...
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - Giants - 09-14-2023
Mick dateline='[url=tel:1694736881' Wrote: 1694736881[/url]']
Giants dateline='[url=tel:1694733278' Wrote: 1694733278[/url]']
After today’s games…
SF is .0002 (one game ahead in the loss column) ahead of their nearest competitor for the #3 WC spot.
With tonight’s Giants game rained out, SF will end the day in a WC spot without throwing a pitch.
Tonight's game is being made up on Saturday as a doubleheader. I wonder if Kapler still intends Bailey to catch both ends? He said that Bailey needs to catch the rest of the games from here on out. Yogi Berra did it 117 times. Non-HoFer Bill Freehan did it 55 times. Gary Carter did it 34 times. Bench and Fisk did it 15/13 times. Dietz did it three times. Sadek and Santiago did it twice. Bob Boone, Piazza, Manwaring, Molina, Hill, Brenly did it once apiece, as did my old buddy Dann Bilardello from my high school. I'm guessing he didn't get a hit in either game. Posey and Matheny never did it. Different era...
P. S. Bob Uecker did it four times. Not sure what that says...
I’m guessing he will start one of the games. Even if he starts both ends, I would still expect him to get a couple hits. Colorado isn’t loaded with great pitching.
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - lex24 - 09-15-2023
(09-14-2023, 05:14 PM)Mick Wrote:(09-14-2023, 04:14 PM)Giants Wrote: After today’s games…
SF is .0002 (one game ahead in the loss column) ahead of their nearest competitor for the #3 WC spot.
With tonight’s Giants game rained out, SF will end the day in a WC spot without throwing a pitch.
Tonight's game is being made up on Saturday as a doubleheader. I wonder if Kapler still intends Bailey to catch both ends? He said that Bailey needs to catch the rest of the games from here on out. Yogi Berra did it 117 times. Non-HoFer Bill Freehan did it 55 times. Gary Carter did it 34 times. Bench and Fisk did it 15/13 times. Dietz did it three times. Sadek and Santiago did it twice. Bob Boone, Piazza, Manwaring, Molina, Hill, Brenly did it once apiece, as did my old buddy Dann Bilardello from my high school. I'm guessing he didn't get a hit in either game. Posey and Matheny never did it. Different era...
P. S. Bob Uecker did it four times. Not sure what that says...
No way he catches all of both games. I could see him catching parts of both.
This weekend is a great opportunity for Giants to take a big step the third WC spot. Take at least 3 if 4 (as they should) and they will have the third spot heading into Arizona.
Cubs and Arizona play three. Giants gain ground on one or both…..
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - lex24 - 09-16-2023
Gut punch last night. Need to sweep DH. Harrison, on his way to HOF after two starts is now back down. And, oh boy, Ross Stripling!
Kapler made yet another of his patented, short sighted splits over all moves. 8th inning up 1, he PH’s Pederson for Matos leading off. Thus, not only losing Pederson for a perhaps more high leverage AB, but weakening his defense ahead late. He then replaces Pederson with Slater. Thus losing the option of using Slater vs lefty in high leverage situation should it arise.
Sure enough, Slater the defensive replacement misses cut off in 8th, allowing lead run to get in scoring position. Got away with it. Then in 9th, bases loaded two outs up 2-1, Slater comes up vs RH. Waves at three sliders that weren’t close. That would have been a better time to use Pederson for Matos if Kaplervso inclined. (Although I’d have let Matos hit). Black would either have had Pederson vs RH or brought in a LH to face him. Then Kapler could have countered with Slater. But he’d already played that card.
Kapler doesn’t think beyond the moment. Good managers do.
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - old spanish trail - 09-16-2023
(09-16-2023, 08:12 AM)lex24 Wrote: Gut punch last night. Need to sweep DH. Harrison, on his way to HOF after two starts is now back down. And, oh boy, Ross Stripling!
Kapler made yet another of his patented, short sighted splits over all moves. 8th inning up 1, he PH’s Pederson for Matos leading off. Thus, not only losing Pederson for a perhaps more high leverage AB, but weakening his defense ahead late. He then replaces Pederson with Slater. Thus losing the option of using Slater vs lefty in high leverage situation should it arise.
Sure enough, Slater the defensive replacement misses cut off in 8th, allowing lead run to get in scoring position. Got away with it. Then in 9th, bases loaded two outs up 2-1, Slater comes up vs RH. Waves at three sliders that weren’t close. That would have been a better time to use Pederson for Matos if Kaplervso inclined. (Although I’d have let Matos hit). Black would either have had Pederson vs RH or brought in a LH to face him. Then Kapler could have countered with Slater. But he’d already played that card.
Kapler doesn’t think beyond the moment. Good managers do.
Yep. Pinch hitting one 30 mill player for another high priced guy in 7th leads to Black bringing in new pitcher leading to double play. They can't even hit in Colorado.
And, of course, Stripling comes in. All he does is walk hitters and get injured. Argghh. Why wouldn't he want to return to Giants.
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - OutsiderFan - 09-17-2023
I honestly didn't think the Rockies would end the Giants' season given the Giants had won what was is 16/17 against them before dropping 3 in a row.
But that is what happened. The Giants are going to finish the 2023 season with a worse record than 2022, and they are right now the 17th best team in MLB.
TA ran a story this week ranking MLB rookie classes. The Giants have the 17th best rookie class. Even the A's are better.
What, exactly, is the Giants' personnel department doing that warrants giving them more time?
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - Mick - 09-17-2023
(09-17-2023, 07:12 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: I honestly didn't think the Rockies would end the Giants' season given the Giants had won what was is 16/17 against them before dropping 3 in a row.
But that is what happened. The Giants are going to finish the 2023 season with a worse record than 2022, and they are right now the 17th best team in MLB.
TA ran a story this week ranking MLB rookie classes. The Giants have the 17th best rookie class. Even the A's are better.
What, exactly, is the Giants' personnel department doing that warrants giving them more time?
Saw that article. What's interesting is that all four division opponents had better performing rookie classes, according to TA. Now TA's method was to accumulate the WAR for the top five rookies. I went back and compiled the total WAR from all rookies from within the division, and from that perspective, the Giants rookies slightly outperformed those of the Rockies and underperformed Dodger rookies by a small number, but it was interesting to me how few SFG rookies had a positive WAR, and how many had negative WAR. As follows:
Positive: Bailey and Walker (1.3), Beck (0.8), Winn (0.6), Sabol (0.5), Luciano (0.2)
Neutral (0.0): Meckler
Negative: Matos & Waites (-0.1), Harrison & Wisely (-0.2), Stevenson (-0.4), Johnson (-0.5), Ramos (-0.6), Schmitt (-0.8), Hjelle (-1.4)