Outside Topic Covid-19 considerations - Printable Version
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RE: lex24 - 2006alum - 03-02-2020
(03-02-2020, 01:12 PM)CornFed Wrote: Well, other than a conversation about whether or not David Shaw is an excellent coach.
My only skin in that game is that the conversation stay in one central thread. Beyond that, folks can debate all off-season for all I care. ;)
RE: Covid-19 considerations - 82lsju - 03-02-2020
(03-02-2020, 01:07 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: My SO works in the corporate events industry. She produces them for internal clients who run various lines of business for a financial services company. She told me today she got a call from a client asking about options to have video conferencing instead of holding a physical event that is already planned and contracted. Right after this, I learned Twitter is cancelling its SXSW presence next week and banning all "non-essential" business travel.
Think of the impacts of this. Some contracts will include cancellation fees, but all the ancillary stuff for the hotel and restaurant businesses will not happen. What if most companies follow Twitter's lead? There are so many people living paycheck to paycheck who can't afford to lose their jobs that will lose them and not be able to pay rent if business travel is stopped in a significant way. Of course, if it's business as usual, sickness spreads and overwhelms medical system, that's gonna carry a cost as well.
There are really no good choices available.
several shows/events cancelled/postponed already, I'm sure more to follow
Mobile World Congress in Barcelona
Quote:MWC is the chance for thousands to gather for partnerships, deals, and product launches. MWC is usually held annually in Barcelona, and it has a big economic impact of 492 million euros, and also generates 14,100 part-time jobs.
https://www.theverge.com/2020/2/12/21127754/mwc-2020-canceled-coronavirus-trade-show-phone-mobile-world-congress-gsma-statement
Gaming Devleopers Conference in San Francisco "postponed"
Quote:GDC caters to a variety of game industry professionals and journalists. Last year, it hit record attendance with more than 29,000 people
https://www.theverge.com/2020/2/28/21156037/gdc-2020-canceled-coronavirus-gaming-event-san-francisco
Formula 1 race in China postponed (but hard to see it rescheduled due to logistics)
Quote:F1's Chinese GP called off because of coronavirus with Vietnam race at risk
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/feb/12/f1-chinese-gp-set-to-be-called-off-due-to-coronavirus-with-vietnam-race-at-risk
some smaller conferences in tech (<10,000 attendees) are moving to "digital" versions, like GTC2020 in San Jose
Quote:As the coronavirus situation is not improving, we’re turning GTC San Jose into a digital conference rather than a live event.
https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/gtc/
RE: Covid-19 considerations - Genuine Realist - 03-02-2020
(03-02-2020, 01:50 PM)82lsju Wrote:(03-02-2020, 01:07 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: My SO works in the corporate events industry. She produces them for internal clients who run various lines of business for a financial services company. She told me today she got a call from a client asking about options to have video conferencing instead of holding a physical event that is already planned and contracted. Right after this, I learned Twitter is cancelling its SXSW presence next week and banning all "non-essential" business travel.
Think of the impacts of this. Some contracts will include cancellation fees, but all the ancillary stuff for the hotel and restaurant businesses will not happen. What if most companies follow Twitter's lead? There are so many people living paycheck to paycheck who can't afford to lose their jobs that will lose them and not be able to pay rent if business travel is stopped in a significant way. Of course, if it's business as usual, sickness spreads and overwhelms medical system, that's gonna carry a cost as well.
There are really no good choices available.
several shows/events cancelled/postponed already, I'm sure more to follow
Mobile World Congress in Barcelona
Quote:MWC is the chance for thousands to gather for partnerships, deals, and product launches. MWC is usually held annually in Barcelona, and it has a big economic impact of 492 million euros, and also generates 14,100 part-time jobs.
https://www.theverge.com/2020/2/12/21127754/mwc-2020-canceled-coronavirus-trade-show-phone-mobile-world-congress-gsma-statement
Gaming Devleopers Conference in San Francisco "postponed"
Quote:GDC caters to a variety of game industry professionals and journalists. Last year, it hit record attendance with more than 29,000 people
https://www.theverge.com/2020/2/28/21156037/gdc-2020-canceled-coronavirus-gaming-event-san-francisco
Formula 1 race in China postponed (but hard to see it rescheduled due to logistics)
Quote:F1's Chinese GP called off because of coronavirus with Vietnam race at risk
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/feb/12/f1-chinese-gp-set-to-be-called-off-due-to-coronavirus-with-vietnam-race-at-risk
some smaller conferences in tech (<10,000 attendees) are moving to "digital" versions, like GTC2020 in San Jose
Quote:As the coronavirus situation is not improving, we’re turning GTC San Jose into a digital conference rather than a live event.
https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/gtc/
RE: Covid-19 considerations - burger - 03-02-2020
The Stanford Theater is closed now because of the virus:
https://datebook.sfchronicle.com/movies-tv/stanford-theatre-closes-movie-house-amid-coronavirus-concerns
(Also, TIL that the Stanford Theater still exists)
RE: Covid-19 considerations - stupac2 - 03-03-2020
Reading things like this does not make me optimistic about how this is going to go (thread):
https://twitter.com/into_the_brush/status/1234685467682979840
RE: Covid-19 considerations - OutsiderFan - 03-03-2020
(03-03-2020, 10:25 AM)stupac2 Wrote: Reading things like this does not make me optimistic about how this is going to go (thread):
https://twitter.com/into_the_brush/status/1234685467682979840
That Twitter account is suspicious. It seems doubtful to me that would be the response given the current state of affairs, unless there is very limited testing capacity.
On a somewhat related note, my business partner is in New Hampshire and his kid has flue and 102 fever and some neck/head pain. The doctor said he would ordinarily have the kid come in, but they are overwhelmed with flu cases and given the Coronavirus (identified a town over from him yesterday) situation, he suggested keeping him at home and calling in to keep updated on condition. Fever down to 100 today and neck pain gone, so seems to be improving.
CDC recommended NPIs are already being called into practice.
RE: Covid-19 considerations - 2006alum - 03-03-2020
(03-03-2020, 10:25 AM)stupac2 Wrote: Reading things like this does not make me optimistic about how this is going to go (thread):
https://twitter.com/into_the_brush/status/1234685467682979840
Thanks for sharing. This and akiddoc's earlier post give me zero confidence that the numbers being reported are anything even close to accurate. And one of the patients in Washington wasn't even identified as having COVID-19 until a post-mortem autopsy (diagnosed SIX days after they died...).
For those who are interested, I've found the Guardian daily liveblog to provide the best coverage for European developments, while CNBC's blog (of all places) has a pretty good top-line overview of updates from around the world, with a bit more focus on the financial/economic impact.
RE: Covid-19 considerations - M T - 03-03-2020
The sick-humor silver lining of Santa Clara county (SCC) having 9 positives in Santa Clara county is that we know they've done 9 tests. (presumably they've tested many close contacts, but I doubt they're going to tell us those numbers.)
We can only HOPE (as they have not giving out this information) that SCC has gotten the full genome on the no-known-contact patients to identify
1) whether this is the same genome as SCC cases #1 & #2, so as to better inform the medical community whether they are releasing patients while still infectious
2) whether this is a genome from elsewhere, to better identify the source of infection.
It is kinda hard for me to understand why the genome would somehow be classified as personal information, so I can only suspect they have not released it for other reasons. (The genome of some other cases in California have been published.)
As far as I can tell, SCC Dept of Public Health's statement re victim #5, "The investigation of this case has just begun and more information will be shared as it becomes available" unfortunately appears to be of questionable value.
For those who continue to hope that there were lots of undetected cases in China, read this article on that issue as reported from the head of the WHO-China Joint Mission. I urge everyone to read the full World Health Organization's report of their 2-week mission in China. I surely wish the CDC would read it.
Quote:When the virus started to spread in Guangdong — the province where the 2002-2003 SARS outbreak began — worried people flooded fever clinics to be tested. Of 320,000 tests performed, just under 0.5% were positive for the virus at the peak of transmission there, he said — which suggests that only 1 case out of 200 was being missed.
Transmission of the virus has subsided in Guangdong, and the number of positive tests at the fever clinics has declined; now only about 1 in 5,000 people tested at the fever clinics is positive for the virus, he said.When the virus started to spread in Guangdong — the province where the 2002-2003 SARS outbreak began — worried people flooded fever clinics to be tested. Of 320,000 tests performed, just under 0.5% were positive for the virus at the peak of transmission there, he said — which suggests that only 1 case out of 200 was being missed.
Transmission of the virus has subsided in Guangdong, and the number of positive tests at the fever clinics has declined; now only about 1 in 5,000 people tested at the fever clinics is positive for the virus, he said.
Quote:Aylward said that ... The case fatality rate — the percentage of known infected people who die — is between 2% and 4% in Hubei province, and 0.7% in other parts of China, he said.
The lower rate outside of Hubei is likely due to the draconian social distancing measures China has put in place to try to slow spread of the virus. Other parts of China have not had the brobdingnagian explosion of cases seen in Hubei, Aylward said.
And, I would add, the CFR was probably held down by widespread testing and tracking of contacts to get cases BEFORE symptoms showed up and before an exposed case could infect many more. The patients were getting care (apparently in hospitals, NOT at home as in the US) from the very first stages. Their outcomes were probably better than waiting for a rest home full of pneumonia-stage victims.
Again I'll point out that the Chinese National Health Council guidance (in my link earlier) for wearing face masks was for HEALTHY individuals that were going to be where they might be exposed to illness (people in crowded places, indoor working environment, ...). If they were sick, at least with this disease, they weren't out walking around!
Indeed, the WHO-China Joint Mission reported that (apparently in Hubei), as part of the controls, "Every citizen has to wear a mask in public."
RE: Covid-19 considerations - OutsiderFan - 03-03-2020
Well, that escalated quickly:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1234921173236035585[/tweet]
The CDC's own guidelines say if death rate is 2%+ it is a "Category 5" pandemic and it projects at least 900k deaths. CDC recommends when Cat 5, schools be closed, people work from home who can, limited travel, etc. But CDC leaves it up to states and local governments to decide what will be done.
It appears more people will be getting the virus than not, and the thing to consider is slowing spread so medical systems are not overwhelmed. But we can't shut down completely because the economy must keep moving along, especially since the Fed rate cut and 10-yr. treasury hitting an all-time low today. Rough times ahead, folks.
RE: Covid-19 considerations - fullmetal - 03-03-2020
Not gonna lie, I think the WHO is being conservative (because they're using China's "official" numbers--bah), and China's massive response shows the true urgency of the situation. There's no need to panic, but we should be urgently vigilant to protect the 5% of us who will not respond well to Covid19 infection. I see my parents about twice a month, so I cancelled my west coast trips this month, for example.
And then there's this:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1232797151941611520?s=19[/tweet]
RE: Covid-19 considerations - Treefence - 03-03-2020
(03-03-2020, 02:16 PM)fullmetal Wrote: Not gonna lie, I think the WHO is being conservative (because they're using China's "official" numbers--bah), and China's massive response shows the true urgency of the situation. There's no need to panic, but we should be urgently vigilant to protect the 5% of us who will not respond well to Covid19 infection. I see my parents about twice a month, so I cancelled my west coast trips this month, for example.
And then there's this:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1232797151941611520?s=19[/tweet]
Interesting, when you go to the link on the tweet, the article has "retracted" printed on it. Could mean a few things, but this is all pretty concerning...
Wow see the response below...
[tweet]https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1233060004363743234[/tweet]
RE: Covid-19 considerations - BostonCard - 03-03-2020
(03-03-2020, 12:08 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote:(03-03-2020, 10:25 AM)stupac2 Wrote: Reading things like this does not make me optimistic about how this is going to go (thread):
https://twitter.com/into_the_brush/status/1234685467682979840
That Twitter account is suspicious. It seems doubtful to me that would be the response given the current state of affairs, unless there is very limited testing capacity.
There is very limited testing capacity (though that is now changing). I think you underestimate how much of a sh**show the CDC has been for the past month.
BC
RE: Covid-19 considerations - BostonCard - 03-03-2020
(03-03-2020, 12:58 PM)M T Wrote: When the virus started to spread in Guangdong — the province where the 2002-2003 SARS outbreak began — worried people flooded fever clinics to be tested. Of 320,000 tests performed, just under 0.5% were positive for the virus at the peak of transmission there, he said — which suggests that only 1 case out of 200 was being missed.
Again I'll point out that the Chinese National Health Council guidance (in my link earlier) for wearing face masks was for HEALTHY individuals that were going to be where they might be exposed to illness (people in crowded places, indoor working environment, ...). If they were sick, at least with this disease, they weren't out walking around!
Indeed, the WHO-China Joint Mission reported that (apparently in Hubei), as part of the controls, "Every citizen has to wear a mask in public."
That doesn't make sense or at least the phrasing is misleading. If the 320,000 people tested were representative and .5% were positive, it doesn't mean that 1 in 200 cases are missed, it means that 1 in 200 people have an undetected case. The population of Guandong is 113.46 million, so if .5% are positive, that's 56500 undetected cases. Since there are 1350 cases in the province, that means that >97% of cases are undetected.
If you just focus on the subgroup of patients with fever, the calculation is much more difficult. You would need to know the incidence of fever. And the results of Guangdong at a particular point in time can't be extrapolated to other places or other timepoints where the underlying prevalence of Covid-19 (not to mention other causes of fever like flu or run of the mill pneumonia).
The bottom line is I wouldn't extrapolate.
As for the mask, really the best you can hope for is that if someone has a mild illness, and doesn't know they have mild infection, and still insist on going out of the house, the mask might protect others. I think the biggest value is in signaling. We must do something to stem the pandemic. Requiring masks is something. Thus we must require masks. It's like security theater but for pandemics.
BC
Stanford Athletics Coronavirus Update March 3rd - mbdude - 03-03-2020
https://gostanford.com/news/2020/3/3/stanford-athletics-coronavirus-update.aspx
RE: Stanford Athletics Coronavirus Update March 3rd - JJJ - 03-03-2020
Clear as mud...
RE: Stanford Athletics Coronavirus Update March 3rd - UltimateCard - 03-03-2020
(03-03-2020, 07:33 PM)JJJ Wrote: Clear as mud...
“Fans must enter one at a time, ten paces apart, and sit at least three seats and rows from other spectators. For outdoor events, double the social distancing downwind if wind speed is over 10mph.”
Instead of emergency exit video instructions, there will be entrance tutorials.
In all seriousness, they should just ban attendance. Don’t see how any plan would work that would be practical.
RE: Stanford Athletics Coronavirus Update March 3rd - Phogge - 03-03-2020
Another reason not to renew football tickets.
RE: Stanford Athletics Coronavirus Update March 3rd - BostonCard - 03-03-2020
(03-03-2020, 08:49 PM)Phogge Wrote: Another reason not to renew football tickets.
Don't think you have to worry about crowding in the football stadium this fall.
BC
RE: Stanford Athletics Coronavirus Update March 3rd - M T - 03-03-2020
I appreciate and support what Stanford has announced. It seems prudent.
RE: Stanford Athletics Coronavirus Update March 3rd - 76lsjumb - 03-03-2020
(03-03-2020, 09:15 PM)BostonCard Wrote:(03-03-2020, 08:49 PM)Phogge Wrote: Another reason not to renew football tickets.
Don't think you have to worry about crowding in the football stadium this fall.
BC
It shouldn't be difficult to implement these procedures in Maples. They've been rehearsing them during men's b'ball games for the past few seasons.