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RE: lex24 - Maple Leaf - 01-17-2022
(01-17-2022, 04:23 PM)CowboyIndian Wrote:(01-17-2022, 09:45 AM)lex24 Wrote: College, I like Danielson and the guy he works with.
PUKE! Gary Danielson is such a conference homer I turn him off. I'm surprised when he doesn't chant, "$EC! $EC!"
His partner, Brad Nessler does an excellent job, I think. They do the Sun Bowl it seems like every year, too. Danielson wanted to be elsewhere.
Danielson played QB at Purdue, following Phipps, Danielson was the starting qb when Purdue came out to play Stanford during Plunkett's senior year and upset the Indians the week before the Indians took down the Condoms.
RE: Giants/Niners 2021 thread - Phogge - 01-17-2022
Purdue/Stanford 1969, perhaps the greatest college QB duel ever. Plunkett vs Phipps.
RE: Giants/Niners 2021 thread - Mick - 01-17-2022
Fun NFL facts:
1) Road teams were 1-5 in the NFL playoffs. Niners had the only win.
2) Aaron Rodgers is 0-3 against the 49ers in the playoffs.
3) Cowboys averaged 6 yards per play over the season, but 4.4 against the 49ers. Extrapolated over the season, that would be last in the NFL.
4) Cowboys were #1 in scoring offense at 31.3 in the NFL. Niner defense held them to just over half their season average.
5) Jimmy Ward said SF loaded up against the run to "dare" Prescott to beat them with his passing.
6) Niner OL didn't give up a sack.
7) Robbie Gould hasn't missed a FG in his playoff career. He's 18-18.
8) Remember that fake punt again Dallas? Niner special teams players should remember there's no pass interference on fake punts. Just for the future.
9) Niners finished 7th in the NFL in rushing (127.4) and got better as they went along. They averaged 138.8 rush ypg the last four regular season games and ran for 169 against the Cowboys.
10) 49ers ranked 5th in the NFL with 48 sacks in 2021.
11) 49ers were #3 in total defense.
12) Jimmy G. had a 98.7 passer rating this year, but a 102.9 in his last 10 regular season games.
13) Packers beat the 49ers 30-28 in game 3 of the regular season on a 51 yard walkoff field goal.
14) There will be a high of 21 degrees on Saturday. Game time is 5:15 local time.
RE: Giants/Niners 2021 thread - BostonCard - 01-18-2022
One minor note from the game… Dallas took a delay of game in the playoffs after converting the fake punt because they deliberately left their punting team on the field to try to draw the Niners into wasting a time out. When the Niners didn’t call it, Dallas hurried to get its offense in, but couldn’t get a play off before the play clock expired and nobody called timeout to prevent the DoG (situationally, taking the penalty was the right call, since Dallas was behind by two scores, and likely would need its time outs later). Still, it was a dumb move by Dallas; even if the 49ers wasted a time out in confusion, it wouldn’t have helped Dallas all that much, and even if Dallas had gotten the play off, the stunt still carried an opportunity cost.
BC
lex24 - lex24 - 01-18-2022
(01-17-2022, 11:07 PM)Mick Wrote: Fun NFL facts:
1) Road teams were 1-5 in the NFL playoffs. Niners had the only win.
2) Aaron Rodgers is 0-3 against the 49ers in the playoffs.
3) Cowboys averaged 6 yards per play over the season, but 4.4 against the 49ers. Extrapolated over the season, that would be last in the NFL.
4) Cowboys were #1 in scoring offense at 31.3 in the NFL. Niner defense held them to just over half their season average.
5) Jimmy Ward said SF loaded up against the run to "dare" Prescott to beat them with his passing.
6) Niner OL didn't give up a sack.
7) Robbie Gould hasn't missed a FG in his playoff career. He's 18-18.
8) Remember that fake punt again Dallas? Niner special teams players should remember there's no pass interference on fake punts. Just for the future.
9) Niners finished 7th in the NFL in rushing (127.4) and got better as they went along. They averaged 138.8 rush ypg the last four regular season games and ran for 169 against the Cowboys.
10) 49ers ranked 5th in the NFL with 48 sacks in 2021.
11) 49ers were #3 in total defense.
12) Jimmy G. had a 98.7 passer rating this year, but a 102.9 in his last 10 regular season games.
13) Packers beat the 49ers 30-28 in game 3 of the regular season on a 51 yard walkoff field goal.
14) There will be a high of 21 degrees on Saturday. Game time is 5:15 local time.
No PI? Or no 5 yard rule? Can’t believe if they throws pass to a receiver and he’s tackled while ball is in air that it’s not PI.
Nonetheless, Norman didn’t play the gunner. He turned and headed back towards the returner. A major mental error. Niners should have kept their defense in and replaced a safety with Benjamin - on orders to fair catch.
RE: Giants/Niners 2021 thread - Giants - 01-18-2022
(01-17-2022, 11:07 PM)Mick Wrote: Fun NFL facts:
1) Road teams were 1-5 in the NFL playoffs. Niners had the only win.
2) Aaron Rodgers is 0-3 against the 49ers in the playoffs.
3) Cowboys averaged 6 yards per play over the season, but 4.4 against the 49ers. Extrapolated over the season, that would be last in the NFL.
4) Cowboys were #1 in scoring offense at 31.3 in the NFL. Niner defense held them to just over half their season average.
5) Jimmy Ward said SF loaded up against the run to "dare" Prescott to beat them with his passing.
6) Niner OL didn't give up a sack.
7) Robbie Gould hasn't missed a FG in his playoff career. He's 18-18.
8) Remember that fake punt again Dallas? Niner special teams players should remember there's no pass interference on fake punts. Just for the future.
9) Niners finished 7th in the NFL in rushing (127.4) and got better as they went along. They averaged 138.8 rush ypg the last four regular season games and ran for 169 against the Cowboys.
10) 49ers ranked 5th in the NFL with 48 sacks in 2021.
11) 49ers were #3 in total defense.
12) Jimmy G. had a 98.7 passer rating this year, but a 102.9 in his last 10 regular season games.
13) Packers beat the 49ers 30-28 in game 3 of the regular season on a 51 yard walkoff field goal.
14) There will be a high of 21 degrees on Saturday. Game time is 5:15 local time.
The game is at 7:15 CST. It is forecast to be in the low teens at that time with a wind chill of near zero.
RE: Giants/Niners 2021 thread - cardcrimson - 01-18-2022
(01-16-2022, 06:03 PM)lex24 Wrote:(01-16-2022, 06:02 PM)81alum Wrote: Who was the color announcer for the TV broadcast of the Niners/Cowboys? He could barely contain his Cowboy boosterism. Super annoying.
Tony Romo!
Niners win despite JG. Who was awful in second half. Hopefully Bosa and Warner are back for GB.
Despite JG?
Not only is he playing with a torn ligament in his thumb that allegedly hurts every time he throws, according to Shanahan, he sprained his throwing shoulder in the second quarter and played through it. Has a chance to play at Green Bay.
Bad shoulder, bad thumb and he still plays. Kinda tells you how close Trey is. . . .
https://www.nfl.com/news/49ers-qb-jimmy-garoppolo-suffered-shoulder-sprain-vs-cowboys-expected-to-practic
RE: Giants/Niners 2021 thread - Phogge - 01-18-2022
Lance is not close. Smoke signals coming out of the Edward DeBartolo Senior Center in Santa Clara. But it doesn’t matter because Lex has already traded Jimmy and received Nick Mullins in return.
RE: Giants/Niners 2021 thread - teejers1 - 01-18-2022
(01-18-2022, 10:07 AM)cardcrimson Wrote:(01-16-2022, 06:03 PM)lex24 Wrote:(01-16-2022, 06:02 PM)81alum Wrote: Who was the color announcer for the TV broadcast of the Niners/Cowboys? He could barely contain his Cowboy boosterism. Super annoying.
Tony Romo!
Niners win despite JG. Who was awful in second half. Hopefully Bosa and Warner are back for GB.
Despite JG?
Not only is he playing with a torn ligament in his thumb that allegedly hurts every time he throws, according to Shanahan, he sprained his throwing shoulder in the second quarter and played through it. Has a chance to play at Green Bay.
Bad shoulder, bad thumb and he still plays. Kinda tells you how close Trey is. . . .
https://www.nfl.com/news/49ers-qb-jimmy-garoppolo-suffered-shoulder-sprain-vs-cowboys-expected-to-practic
I have no doubt that Jimmy G. is tough – I just hope that the coaching staff recognizes when a player’s dings/injuries get to the point of jeopardizing team success. And while I love Shanahan as a player caller and offensive mastermind,* one Pop Psychology concern lurks. And it’s this: I suspect that in Shanahan’s ideal world, his QB implements his “brilliant, pretty” offense flawlessly – which includes getting through pass reads on a straight drop back play – so all can see what a master game caller Shanahan is. Shanahan wants a QB who can make all the throws, to be sure, but a system QB who follows the script is paramount. Thus, if a QB is a one-look, tuck-and-go guy, then that may not be Shanahan’s ideal. In short, I’m not sure Shanahan loves a QB who “wings it” and Trey may do that too much, at this stage of his career anyway, in Shanahan’s mind. And this could be true even if Lance could have been a more “effective” QB during games, with his stronger arm and ability to improvise plays to success.
At bottom, I still believe that all coaches want to win most of all, and that Shanahan falls into this category. So, there is little doubt that Shanahan believes Jimmy (certainly a healthy one) gives the ‘Niners that best chance. But I do wonder if subconsciously he dings Trey more than Joe Fan might based solely on what we’ve seen in games.
There, and you all thought I just did Pop Psychology on football coaches I don’t think are good.
BTW, is there any doubt that Shanahan is a great mind on offense? It’s amazing to me that he can consistently scheme guys open against “the best of the best.” [If only Jimmy could hit those wide open guys every time . . . ]. Hell, even the running plays are creative. How about that reverse to Deebo that almost sealed the game? Just a terrific call.
* Shanahan could use more input on Big Decisions during games. He is far from perfect on this, even accounting for inherent subjectivity in a lot of these calls.
RE: lex24 - DC 86 - 01-18-2022
(01-18-2022, 08:15 AM)lex24 Wrote: No PI? Or no 5 yard rule? Can’t believe if they throws pass to a receiver and he’s tackled while ball is in air that it’s not PI.
On a fake punt there is no DPI possible covering either of the gunners, on the assumption that the covering player has his back to the play and can't be aware that a punt return has changed into pass coverage, although sometimes the defender is aware that it's a fake and takes advantage of the rule. DPI can still be called on coverage of any of the inside receivers or backs unless they go into motion and become the outside man. Defensive holding of course can still be called on any player since that's illegal regardless of whether it's a punt or a pass, so you can blast the receiver at any time but not tackle him by wrapping up. This came up a few years ago in a 49ers/Saints game, the first time I became aware of it.
(01-18-2022, 10:36 AM)teejers1 Wrote: Thus, if a QB is a one-look, tuck-and-go guy, then that may not be Shanahan’s ideal.
That's no head coach's ideal.
A single-read, take-off-and-run QB isn't going to start a playoff game for any coach if there's a reasonable alternative. Having said that, I thought Lance played fairly well a few weeks ago (not just in terms of throws, but reads as they game went on) but it's certainly understandable that Shanahan isn't confident starting him in a playoff game given his minimal game experience.
RE: lex24 - teejers1 - 01-18-2022
(01-18-2022, 11:43 AM)DC 86 Wrote:(01-18-2022, 08:15 AM)lex24 Wrote: No PI? Or no 5 yard rule? Can’t believe if they throws pass to a receiver and he’s tackled while ball is in air that it’s not PI.
On a fake punt there is no DPI possible covering either of the gunners, on the assumption that the covering player has his back to the play and can't be aware that a punt return has changed into pass coverage, although sometimes the defender is aware that it's a fake and takes advantage of the rule. DPI can still be called on coverage of any of the inside receivers or backs unless they go into motion and become the outside man. Defensive holding of course can still be called on any player since that's illegal regardless of whether it's a punt or a pass, so you can blast the receiver at any time but not tackle him by wrapping up. This came up a few years ago in a 49ers/Saints game, the first time I became aware of it.
(01-18-2022, 10:36 AM)teejers1 Wrote: Thus, if a QB is a one-look, tuck-and-go guy, then that may not be Shanahan’s ideal.
That's no head coach's ideal.
A single-read, take-off-and-run QB isn't going to start a playoff game for any coach if there's a reasonable alternative. Having said that, I thought Lance played fairly well a few weeks ago (not just in terms of throws, but reads as they game went on) but it's certainly understandable that Shanahan isn't confident starting him in a playoff game given his minimal game experience.
Thanks for explaining the rule - that was edifying (and largely makes sense).
My reaction to watching Trey play was similar to yours. But I'm just concerned that Jimmy is somewhere between dinged and pretty compromised. The former you can live with; the latter you really can't. And btw, a really healthy Jimmy is quite good - remember his first 5-6 games way back when? Incredibly accurate, pretty good zip. Part of me wonders if the reason we haven't seen a return to that form is that Jimmy is ding/injury prone; thus, after season gets going he invariably gets nicked and we don't see "fully healthy Jimmy." Too late to hope for that now - and I expect Jimmy to start and play. Just hope he has a good showing. Pretty sure he'll need to be better than he was in Dallas for the 'Niners to beat the Packers.
RE: Giants/Niners 2021 thread - DC 86 - 01-18-2022
Lex, your Ketel Marte trade proposal made it into The Athletic today!
RE: Giants/Niners 2021 thread - Giants - 01-18-2022
(01-18-2022, 05:57 PM)DC 86 Wrote: Lex, your Ketel Marte trade proposal made it into The Athletic today!
…and there is no way that SF would deal Luciano and Ramos for Marte.
Marte may be dealt by AZ but I don’t think SF will be in the mix.
RE: Giants/Niners 2021 thread - Phogge - 01-18-2022
You think Luciano is the fourth generation by product of a Dominican tryst of Charlie Lucky?
lex24 - lex24 - 01-18-2022
(01-18-2022, 06:11 PM)Giants Wrote:(01-18-2022, 05:57 PM)DC 86 Wrote: Lex, your Ketel Marte trade proposal made it into The Athletic today!
…and there is no way that SF would deal Luciano and Ramos for Marte.
Marte may be dealt by AZ but I don’t think SF will be in the mix.
He panned it. Not surprising. And I wouldn’t trade Luciano and Marte for Ketel.
(01-18-2022, 12:48 PM)teejers1 Wrote:(01-18-2022, 11:43 AM)DC 86 Wrote:(01-18-2022, 08:15 AM)lex24 Wrote: No PI? Or no 5 yard rule? Can’t believe if they throws pass to a receiver and he’s tackled while ball is in air that it’s not PI.
On a fake punt there is no DPI possible covering either of the gunners, on the assumption that the covering player has his back to the play and can't be aware that a punt return has changed into pass coverage, although sometimes the defender is aware that it's a fake and takes advantage of the rule. DPI can still be called on coverage of any of the inside receivers or backs unless they go into motion and become the outside man. Defensive holding of course can still be called on any player since that's illegal regardless of whether it's a punt or a pass, so you can blast the receiver at any time but not tackle him by wrapping up. This came up a few years ago in a 49ers/Saints game, the first time I became aware of it.
(01-18-2022, 10:36 AM)teejers1 Wrote: Thus, if a QB is a one-look, tuck-and-go guy, then that may not be Shanahan’s ideal.
That's no head coach's ideal.
A single-read, take-off-and-run QB isn't going to start a playoff game for any coach if there's a reasonable alternative. Having said that, I thought Lance played fairly well a few weeks ago (not just in terms of throws, but reads as they game went on) but it's certainly understandable that Shanahan isn't confident starting him in a playoff game given his minimal game experience.
Thanks for explaining the rule - that was edifying (and largely makes sense).
My reaction to watching Trey play was similar to yours. But I'm just concerned that Jimmy is somewhere between dinged and pretty compromised. The former you can live with; the latter you really can't. And btw, a really healthy Jimmy is quite good - remember his first 5-6 games way back when? Incredibly accurate, pretty good zip. Part of me wonders if the reason we haven't seen a return to that form is that Jimmy is ding/injury prone; thus, after season gets going he invariably gets nicked and we don't see "fully healthy Jimmy." Too late to hope for that now - and I expect Jimmy to start and play. Just hope he has a good showing. Pretty sure he'll need to be better than he was in Dallas for the 'Niners to beat the Packers.
Niners grossly overpaid him based on a 5 game stretch of meaningless games. He was better before the knee injury. But I don’t know if he ever was a particularly accurate downfield passer. Great release. But not a downfield guy. Still, the contract is why he will be gone next year.
As for Shanahans offense, it’s run oriented with the pass game predicated on play action. Lance was in an offense at NDS that incorporated those elements. It’s folly to base much of anything on the tidbits we’ve seen so far. Rookie QBs are almost never successful. Learning NFL offenses and defenses take a while. Unless you are Andrew Luck. And savants don’t come around often.
Obviously Shanahan doesn’t want to have to throw him into the fray in a divisional playoff game. Probably wont have to. But thumb, plus shoulder isn’t good. What’s next - elbow?
RE: lex24 - DC 86 - 01-19-2022
(01-18-2022, 08:42 PM)lex24 Wrote:(01-18-2022, 05:57 PM)DC 86 Wrote: Lex, your Ketel Marte trade proposal made it into The Athletic today!
He panned it. Not surprising. And I wouldn’t trade Luciano and Marte for Ketel.
After reading Bowden's response, and thinking about my initial reaction, I believe that 1) I was wrong and 2) that Bowden is similarly wrong. We both established the correct facts but arrived at the wrong conclusion. If I were Bowden I would have answered with the following (acknowledging that The Athletic's format wouldn't allow for such a detailed analysis):
1. Ketel Marte is very valuable asset. He's projected by Fangraphs to be worth 3.8 WAR next year but is signed to a one-year contract for $8 million with two additional team options totaling $22 million more. He'll play next year at 28 years old. How much would he be worth if he was a free agent?
There have been three free agent second basemen or centerfielders signed so far:
Starling Marte, 33 years old, 3.0 projected WAR, 4 x $19.5 million.
Marcus Semien, 31 years old, 4.5 projected WAR, 7 x $25 million.
Chris Taylor, 31 years old, 2.2 projected WAR, 4 x $15 million.
Given the ages of these three players one should assume that teams are expecting to recoup most of the contract's value in the front part, regardless of how the contract itself is structured. If Semien was willing to sign a one year contract with two team options the first year might well be $40 million, given his projection. Given that Starling Marte's contract starts at age 33 a one year contract with two team options might start at $25 million or more.
Taylor is three years older than Ketel Marte and has a much lower projected value but his contract serves as a baseline.
On the open market it's fair to assume that if Ketel Marte was open to a one year contract with two team options he would be looking at total compensation of around $90 million over three years. Given that he is only going to be paid $30 million that's a $60 million underpay.
2. If the Giants were offering prospects (and/or young cost controlled major leaguers) they would need to propose a very strong package to equal Marte's surplus value, starting with Luciano and Ramos as well as several others near the top of their rankings.
3. However, there's Madison Bumgarner, whose contract has strong negative value and is an anchor on Arizona's baseball operations. He's due $60 million over the next three years. He's projected by Fangraphs to be worth 1.0 WAR next season. He'll play next year at 32 years old. How much would he be worth as a free agent?
These are the starting pitchers signed so far who Fangraphs projects to produce less than 1.5 WAR:
Andrew Heaney, 31 years old, 1.4 projected WAR, 1 x $8.5 million.
Corey Kubler, 36 years old, 1.4 projected WAR, 1 x $8 million.
Jordan Lyles, 31 years old, 0.9 projected WAR, 1 x $7 million.
Michael Wacha, 30 years old, 1.3 projected WAR, 1 x $7 million.
It's a fairly narrow band which Bumgarner fits into. On the open market he would be looking at a one year deal in this range. A three year deal is obviously not realistic, but theoretically he might get a total of $15 million over that time, meaning that he's far from worthless but is being overpaid by about $45 million.
4. The delta between Marte's underpay and Bumgarner's overpay is only around $15 million, a manageable figure which can probably be filled by second tier prospects such as Bishop and Santos and a pair of lower minors lottery tickets. Possibly a higher ranked prospect than Santos would be required but critically the overall package doesn't need a top prospect to be included in this scenario.
5. Duggar also doesn't need to be included in the deal given the above assumptions, and the Giants shouldn't be trading him. 1) He's their only projected starting position player under 30, 2) Marte is a terrible centerfielder whose best position is second base, playing him in centerfield full time would materially diminish his value and change all of the calculations above. Moreover, if Arizona is inclined to move Marte in order to rebuild they won't value a player like Duggar highly, given that he will be into his thirties when they contend again.
6. The Giants are a high-revenue team (even though they haven't been acting like it) meaning they should use their economic power to acquire talent instead of trading top prospects. Taking on Bumgarner's contract is the ideal way for them to improve their team, even if they ended up releasing him at some point. If the Diamondbacks are in reset mode then this is the opportunity to eliminate dead money while acquiring prospect volume.
7. Fangraphs projects San Francisco's best player in 2022 to be Brandon Crawford, producing 2.6 WAR. If the Giants acquired Ketel Marte he would be projected to be their best player by a significant margin and they would only be committed for one year (in the event of catastrophic injury or suspension), three years maximum. It's a no-brainer for them and taking Bumgarner is a reasonable cost. Would the Giants sign Marte for one year at $25 million with two $25 million options ($25 million being $10 million a year average for Marte's salary and $15 million a year average for the portion of Bumgarner's salary which is an overpay)? of course they would, and they would be willing to trade some non-top level prospects for that opportunity. If the Diamondbacks are in actual rebuild mode then this scenario is plausible for them as well.
8. Non-elite prospects for Marte and Bumgarner makes sense, whether it's realistic depends on whether SF is willing to spend money in the form of taking on an onerous contract and whether Arizona is willing to trade a very valuable player in order to reduce payroll and start over - their fans won't be pleased, and it's an admission of making a terrible decision in signing Bumgarner.
lex24 - lex24 - 01-19-2022
(01-19-2022, 03:11 PM)DC 86 Wrote:(01-18-2022, 08:42 PM)lex24 Wrote:(01-18-2022, 05:57 PM)DC 86 Wrote: Lex, your Ketel Marte trade proposal made it into The Athletic today!
He panned it. Not surprising. And I wouldn’t trade Luciano and Marte for Ketel.
After reading Bowden's response, and thinking about my initial reaction, I believe that 1) I was wrong and 2) that Bowden is similarly wrong. We both established the correct facts but arrived at the wrong conclusion. If I were Bowden I would have answered with the following (acknowledging that The Athletic's format wouldn't allow for such a detailed analysis):
1. Ketel Marte is very valuable asset. He's projected by Fangraphs to be worth 3.8 WAR next year but is signed to a one-year contract for $8 million with two additional team options totaling $22 million more. He'll play next year at 28 years old. How much would he be worth if he was a free agent?
There have been three free agent second basemen or centerfielders signed so far:
Starling Marte, 33 years old, 3.0 projected WAR, 4 x $19.5 million.
Marcus Semien, 31 years old, 4.5 projected WAR, 7 x $25 million.
Chris Taylor, 31 years old, 2.2 projected WAR, 4 x $15 million.
Given the ages of these three players one should assume that teams are expecting to recoup most of the contract's value in the front part, regardless of how the contract itself is structured. If Semien was willing to sign a one year contract with two team options the first year might well be $40 million, given his projection. Given that Starling Marte's contract starts at age 33 a one year contract with two team options might start at $25 million or more.
Taylor is three years older than Ketel Marte and has a much lower projected value but his contract serves as a baseline.
On the open market it's fair to assume that if Ketel Marte was open to a one year contract with two team options he would be looking at total compensation of around $90 million over three years. Given that he is only going to be paid $30 million that's a $60 million underpay.
2. If the Giants were offering prospects (and/or young cost controlled major leaguers) they would need to propose a very strong package to equal Marte's surplus value, starting with Luciano and Ramos as well as several others near the top of their rankings.
3. However, there's Madison Bumgarner, whose contract has strong negative value and is an anchor on Arizona's baseball operations. He's due $60 million over the next three years. He's projected by Fangraphs to be worth 1.0 WAR next season. He'll play next year at 32 years old. How much would he be worth as a free agent?
These are the starting pitchers signed so far who Fangraphs projects to produce less than 1.5 WAR:
Andrew Heaney, 31 years old, 1.4 projected WAR, 1 x $8.5 million.
Corey Kubler, 36 years old, 1.4 projected WAR, 1 x $8 million.
Jordan Lyles, 31 years old, 0.9 projected WAR, 1 x $7 million.
Michael Wacha, 30 years old, 1.3 projected WAR, 1 x $7 million.
It's a fairly narrow band which Bumgarner fits into. On the open market he would be looking at a one year deal in this range. A three year deal is obviously not realistic, but theoretically he might get a total of $15 million over that time, meaning that he's far from worthless but is being overpaid by about $45 million.
4. The delta between Marte's underpay and Bumgarner's overpay is only around $15 million, a manageable figure which can probably be filled by second tier prospects such as Bishop and Santos and a pair of lower minors lottery tickets. Possibly a higher ranked prospect than Santos would be required but critically the overall package doesn't need a top prospect to be included in this scenario.
5. Duggar also doesn't need to be included in the deal given the above assumptions, and the Giants shouldn't be trading him. 1) He's their only projected starting position player under 30, 2) Marte is a terrible centerfielder whose best position is second base, playing him in centerfield full time would materially diminish his value and change all of the calculations above. Moreover, if Arizona is inclined to move Marte in order to rebuild they won't value a player like Duggar highly, given that he will be into his thirties when they contend again.
6. The Giants are a high-revenue team (even though they haven't been acting like it) meaning they should use their economic power to acquire talent instead of trading top prospects. Taking on Bumgarner's contract is the ideal way for them to improve their team, even if they ended up releasing him at some point. If the Diamondbacks are in reset mode then this is the opportunity to eliminate dead money while acquiring prospect volume.
7. Fangraphs projects San Francisco's best player in 2022 to be Brandon Crawford, producing 2.6 WAR. If the Giants acquired Ketel Marte he would be projected to be their best player by a significant margin and they would only be committed for one year (in the event of catastrophic injury or suspension), three years maximum. It's a no-brainer for them and taking Bumgarner is a reasonable cost. Would the Giants sign Marte for one year at $25 million with two $25 million options ($25 million being $10 million a year average for Marte's salary and $15 million a year average for the portion of Bumgarner's salary which is an overpay)? of course they would, and they would be willing to trade some non-top level prospects for that opportunity. If the Diamondbacks are in actual rebuild mode then this scenario is plausible for them as well.
8. Non-elite prospects for Marte and Bumgarner makes sense, whether it's realistic depends on whether SF is willing to spend money in the form of taking on an onerous contract and whether Arizona is willing to trade a very valuable player in order to reduce payroll and start over - their fans won't be pleased, and it's an admission of making a terrible decision in signing Bumgarner.
I like your response a lot more….. I did think Bowden missed the point on Bumgarner. Although, I still hold out hope that he can regain some of his former prowess. It’s rare, but not unprecedented. Verlander being a good example. (Although his fall was shorter and less precipitous)
RE: lex24 - DC 86 - 01-19-2022
(01-19-2022, 04:12 PM)lex24 Wrote: I like your response a lot more….. I did think Bowden missed the point on Bumgarner. Although, I still hold out hope that he can regain some of his former prowess. It’s rare, but not unprecedented. Verlander being a good example. (Although his fall was shorter and less precipitous)
I underestimated the deficit value of Bumgarner's contract also. He pitched 146 innings with a 4.67 ERA last year, bad but still valuable - he recorded 1.5 WAR in both the B-R and Fangraphs versions, not that far below an average player. But underlying metrics are discouraging and projection systems are pessimistic about him going forward. Although the starting pitcher market as a whole has been robust it's been only one year, low money deals for similar pitchers to him.
It's possible that he could recapture some of his former dominance, but unlikely to ever approach $20 million per year in value. Verlander has basically missed two full seasons so he's a wild card, but immediately before he was injured he was excellent (6.6 and 6.4 in fWAR, 4.9 and 5.3 bWAR in 2018-2019). Bumgarner has never been above 5.0 WAR in either system, and he hasn't been close to that level since 2016.
RE: lex24 - lex24 - 01-19-2022
(01-19-2022, 04:42 PM)DC 86 Wrote:(01-19-2022, 04:12 PM)lex24 Wrote: I like your response a lot more….. I did think Bowden missed the point on Bumgarner. Although, I still hold out hope that he can regain some of his former prowess. It’s rare, but not unprecedented. Verlander being a good example. (Although his fall was shorter and less precipitous)
I underestimated the deficit value of Bumgarner's contract also. He pitched 146 innings with a 4.67 ERA last year, bad but still valuable - he recorded 1.5 WAR in both the B-R and Fangraphs versions, not that far below an average player. But underlying metrics are discouraging and projection systems are pessimistic about him going forward. Although the starting pitcher market as a whole has been robust it's been only one year, low money deals for similar pitchers to him.
It's possible that he could recapture some of his former dominance, but unlikely to ever approach $20 million per year in value.
I know. But I can always hope.
RE: Giants/Niners 2021 thread - lex24 - 01-21-2022
My picks for divisionals
Titans (their running game keeps Burrow off field)
Packers. Too much Diva Rodgers
Rams. If they run the ball as they did vs Arizona, they are tough.
Bills. Just a hunch that they are ready.