Portal tracker - Printable Version
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RE: Portal tracker - BostonCard - 12-06-2022
If you don’t think that there are systemic changes that make college football transfers much more common across the landscape and that outbound transfers are not just a Stanford thing, I saw the following flash on a chyron: JT Daniel’s considering transferring to his fourth team.
Lol.
BC
RE: Portal tracker - lex24 - 12-06-2022
(12-06-2022, 08:21 PM)BostonCard Wrote: If you don’t think that there are systemic changes that make college football transfers much more common across the landscape and that outbound transfers are not just a Stanford thing, I saw the following flash on a chyron: JT Daniel’s considering transferring to his fourth team.
Lol.
BC
Sad case, actually. Graduated HS early. Skipped his last year and went to SC. Got beat out by what’s his name, who has since transferred. Has galavanted around the country trying to find a place he can start. Doubt he will make NFL. Hope he has something to fall back on.
RE: Portal tracker - Spiny_Norman - 12-06-2022
(12-06-2022, 08:58 PM)lex24 Wrote: Sad case, actually. Graduated HS early. Skipped his last year and went to SC. Got beat out by what’s his name, who has since transferred. Has galavanted around the country trying to find a place he can start. Doubt he will make NFL. Hope he has something to fall back on.
"What's his name" is Kedon Slovis. When Caleb Williams said that he was transferring to USC, Slovis left for Pittsburgh. Led them to an 8-4 record and a Sun Bowl berth. But Slovis has decided to transfer. Again. He's in the portal too.
RE: Portal tracker - lex24 - 12-06-2022
(12-06-2022, 10:10 PM)Spiny_Norman Wrote:(12-06-2022, 08:58 PM)lex24 Wrote: Sad case, actually. Graduated HS early. Skipped his last year and went to SC. Got beat out by what’s his name, who has since transferred. Has galavanted around the country trying to find a place he can start. Doubt he will make NFL. Hope he has something to fall back on.
"What's his name" is Kedon Slovis. When Caleb Williams said that he was transferring to USC, Slovis left for Pittsburgh. Led them to an 8-4 record and a Sun Bowl berth. But Slovis has decided to transfer. Again. He's in the portal too.
Thanks. Senior moment…..
RE: Portal tracker - BostonCard - 12-06-2022
Don’t forget about Jaxon Dart.
https://www.si.com/college/usc/.amp/football/jaxson-dart-transfer-portal-usc
To summarize:
JT Daniel’s got injured and lost out to Slovis and transferred (and transferred and is transferring a third time)
Kedon Slovis got injured and wound up in a battle with Jaxon Dart and transferred to Pitt (and is transferring a second time)
Jaxon Dart saw the writing on the wall when Lincoln Riley brought Caleb Williams to USC with him and transferred.
Caleb Williams…?
BTW I busted out laughing when I saw this quote from Dart…
Quote: Just the bonds and connections I made...my teammates, my friends. Leaving those guys was hard. But it was what was best for me to achieve my goals for the future.
@mattsqueri
BC
RE: Portal tracker - Phogge - 12-07-2022
How can Daniels transfer again? Isn’t there a rule that you can only do it once without sitting out a year?
And I’m miffed that Bobbbbbb didn’t get the e.e. post.
RE: Portal tracker - qwerty49 - 12-07-2022
(12-07-2022, 12:18 AM)Phogge Wrote: How can Daniels transfer again? Isn’t there a rule that you can only do it once without sitting out a year?
And I’m miffed that Bobbbbbb didn’t get the e.e. post.
Bobbbb’s holding out for Kapler’s job. He already bought a year’s supply of coconut oil back when Costco had a big sale.
RE: Portal tracker - Chupacabra - 12-07-2022
So many claims of "selfish." Pretty selfish to put what you want to see on the field on Saturdays ahead of what an 18-23 year old considers the best choice for his life.
The answer is to win and help the guys buy in, not say they're a bunch of selfish crybabies. Certainly reeks of pots and kettles.
Are changes needed to drive this home to the players? Of course. But don't blame the players, they're college students. If you want to put your money where your mouth is, sign one of the guys to an NIL deal yourself. It's completely legal now.
RE: Portal tracker - Mick - 12-07-2022
(12-05-2022, 04:13 PM)msqueri Wrote: Great post, BC. What your analysis elides though is the strong evidence aside from the culture portal that we have a culture of leaving. Stanford players in recent year go to the NFL as soon as it is even halfway plausible. While the transfer portal may be a national dynamic we can't control, almost everybody leaving for the NFL no matter what their prospects is highly unusual.
Dalton Schultz, Harrison Phillips, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Simi Fehoko, Connor Wedington, Kaden Smith, Colby Parkinson, Nate Herbig, Drew Dalman, Walker Little, Foster Sarell, Thomas Booker, Tucker Fisk, Scooter Harrington, Curtis Robinson, Justin Reid, Quenton Meeks, Paulson Adebo, and Davis Mills all left eligibility on the table to try their hand at the NFL, not to mention guys I'm probably forgetting (I'm not even counting fringier guys but important players like Malik Antoine and Thomas Schaffer), and that is just in the NFL drafts since 2018. Not a single one of those was a first round draft pick. In fact, Little and Arcega-Whiteside were the only ones who were even second round picks.
We also have guys leaving before they've even gotten to a fourth year on campus (without degrees) alarmingly often. Under Shaw Shaw the following players left after their third years: Andrus Peat (first round), Austin Hooper (third round), Solomon Thomas (first round), Christian McCaffrey (first round), Justin Reid (third round), Quenton Meeks (undrafted), Nate Herbig (undrafted), Simi Fehoko (fifth round), Kaden Smith (sixth round), Colby Parkinson (fourth round). That's a lot of leaving before the degree just to be Day 2/3/undrafted picks.
Last time I checked it out, in a three draft span we had 11 players declare compared to seven for USC, six for Washington, four for Arizona State, four for UCLA, three for Oregon, three for Oregon State, two for Colorado, two for Utah, two for Arizona, one for Washington State, and zero for Cal. It's not because we had that many more NFL prospects than anybody else. In those drafts Washington had 14 players drafted, Oregon 13, Utah 12, Stanford 12, USC 11, UCLA seven, Arizona State five, Colorado five, Oregon State five, Cal four, Washington State three, and Arizona three.
It's quite clear that Stanford players have been bolting at the first chance they can. The transfer portal is part of that, though you're right there are reasons for it outside our control. But it's just one symptom of a larger culture of leaving. The NFL departures of guys like Mills, Sarell, Dalman, Parkinson, and Fehoko is what makes most clear Stanford players no longer have loyalty or sense of team. Those aren't departures other programs see. A healthy program might have lost two of those guys.
I'd be curious as to the success rate of players with eligibility left who decided to leave, either via the portal or via the NFL draft. Anyone have those statistics handy? Also like to know how they compare with other schools.
RE: Portal tracker - Goose - 12-07-2022
One factor that has been repeatedly cited on this board is that a strategy that gets you to the NFL ASAP is generally a good idea. It allows you to get to the "second contract" (where the big money is) as early as possible. The value of staying an extra year to "improve" your draft status is supposedly inferior to going as soon as possible, provided your advisors think you will actually get drafted. This is not true if you think you can get to the first round, but otherwise it is the case. It is also difficult to predict what you have to do in order to meaningfully improve your draft status. While it is certainly true that playing on a bad team probably hurts your ability to do this, it isn't clear that even if you play on a good team you can do so. The NFL bound athletes know this and mostly act accordingly.
RE: Portal tracker - BostonCard - 12-07-2022
Not sure about that strategy. The vast majority of players, especially those drafted in the lower rounds, never see that second contract.
I haven’t games it out, but if you adjust for that fact, there is probably a strong impetus in improving your draft position upon exit from college.
BC
RE: Portal tracker - CardinalSagehen - 12-07-2022
(12-07-2022, 10:16 AM)Chupacabra Wrote: So many claims of "selfish." Pretty selfish to put what you want to see on the field on Saturdays ahead of what an 18-23 year old considers the best choice for his life.
The answer is to win and help the guys buy in, not say they're a bunch of selfish crybabies. Certainly reeks of pots and kettles.
Are changes needed to drive this home to the players? Of course. But don't blame the players, they're college students. If you want to put your money where your mouth is, sign one of the guys to an NIL deal yourself. It's completely legal now.
Totally agree. John Canzano’s excellent article from today echoes this point.
https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-transfer-game-laced-with
RE: Portal tracker - Treebound - 12-07-2022
Great article, Sagehen. Thank you.
I agree with John C, this current environment is the pendulum swinging too far back in favor of the players. It will settle out over the next couple of years. NIL was not meant to be a recruiting tool, but it clearly is for a number of sports who are augmenting the limit on scholarships by feeding collective money to recruits in lieu of a scholies. JT Daniels 4 transfers is an example of things swinging too far. This is not about an education, it's clearly about playing time and perks that can be negotiated. I don't blame him. He has a right to do this in the current environment, but I don't think it's great for college sports. It smacks of Robbie Benson getting paid to keep alligators out of the gym...
I continue to believe that there will be some tempering of the current rules for both NIL and the transfer portal. Not surprisingly schools in the SEC, USC, Texas A&M and others jump at the loop holes to gain an advantage. They have it for now, but this is going to change/evolve into something that will be a little more sane.
RE: Portal tracker - 82lsju - 12-07-2022
Levani Damuni to Utah
https://www.deseret.com/2022/12/7/23498826/stanford-transfer-portal-levani-damuni-joining-utah-football
RE: Portal tracker - Maple Leaf - 12-07-2022
Joshua Pakola who transferred to Fresno State is back in the transfer portal.
RE: Portal tracker - CowboyIndian - 12-07-2022
(12-07-2022, 02:59 PM)Treebound Wrote: They have it for now, but this is going to change/evolve into something that will be a little more sane.
Not so sure about that. It looks to me as if this is all becoming normalized and if some schools are benefitting from it, they won't be in a big hurry to change the rules.
RE: Portal tracker - gailtate - 12-07-2022
The more anecdotal gas that emits from the portal the more I almost pity Stanford and how the hell its Stewards can possibly reconcile their educational mission or stewardship or whatever they call it with the cold hard reality of the new world order. Shaw's successor's gonna earn his money. The ex-coach stands to thoroughly enjoy what I'm sure is an ample sinecure and free of those pesky post-game sessions with the media.
RE: Portal tracker - BostonCard - 12-07-2022
(12-07-2022, 05:27 PM)gailtate Wrote: The more anecdotal gas that emits from the portal the more I almost pity Stanford and how the hell its Stewards can possibly reconcile their educational mission or stewardship or whatever they call it with the cold hard reality of the new world order. Shaw's successor's gonna earn his money. The ex-coach stands to thoroughly enjoy what I'm sure is an ample sinecure and free of those pesky post-game sessions with the media.
I hope some day you will find it in your heart to forgive Shaw for whatever he did to you.
That being said, I agree with you. This whole thing is aweful, yet not surprising. When the NCAA, conferences, and schools consistently throw players under the bus in order to line their own pockets, is it any surprise that, given the opportunity, players focus on themselves. I really hope that the pendulum swings back, but I doubt it. Everyone is so busy lining their pockets with the gazillions of dollars that new mega-conferences, TV deals, and expanded playoffs offer that they have never stopped to think and ask, what is in the best interest of our student-athletes.
BC
RE: Portal tracker - Goose - 12-07-2022
(12-07-2022, 01:44 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Not sure about that strategy. The vast majority of players, especially those drafted in the lower rounds, never see that second contract.True. Most guys don't make it. However, if you are not good enough to make it to a second contract in the NFL spending an extra year trying to improve your draft status is unlikely to produce that result. However, it does delay you finding out the NFL isn't for you. Equally unfortunately it is unclear exactly what one has to do to improve their draft status by how much. You could have a great year and go up not at all. You could also get hurt and end your career. If that is going to happen you want the NFL insurance, not the college insurance. All in all, I think it is clear going as early as you can is the best choice for most players. If you have first round potential, maybe coming back makes sense because your first contract would be greatly enhanced. Otherwise, considering the risk of injury, it doesn't make sense.
I haven’t games it out, but if you adjust for that fact, there is probably a strong impetus in improving your draft position upon exit from college.
BC
RE: Portal tracker - Mick - 12-07-2022
(12-07-2022, 01:44 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Not sure about that strategy. The vast majority of players, especially those drafted in the lower rounds, never see that second contract.
I haven’t games it out, but if you adjust for that fact, there is probably a strong impetus in improving your draft position upon exit from college.
BC
It's 70%. Big number. Here's the numbers by team from draft picks from 2008 to 2017. San Francisco has the highest percentage
https://www.the33rdteam.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/unnamed-3.png
ESPN.com: NFL - Drafted players don't stick around