Outside Topic Giants/Niners 2021 thread - Printable Version
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RE: Giants/Niners 2021 thread - qwerty49 - 12-01-2021
(12-01-2021, 03:59 PM)lex24 Wrote:(12-01-2021, 02:00 PM)Giants Wrote:(12-01-2021, 01:15 PM)BobK Wrote: Wood signing announced. 2 years $ 25M.
I like the two year term. So far, Zaidi has done a nice job of signing guys to reasonable contracts. I agree with Phogge re: a RH OF with power (a very good one will cause Zaidi to go outside his financial comfort zone) and a couple more starters, giving SF some wiggle room when one needs some downtime.
It’s not Zaidi’s money. It his budget. Whatever that may be. If the Giants are going to pretend that they can’t compete money wise, then last year will be an aberration. They have lost Posey and Bryant. They are woefully short of right handed bats. Longer term contracts for hitters have less risk than for pitchers. If they are going to insist that they won’t go over 3 or 4 years, then im not particularly optimistic moving forward. Fortunately, im relatively confident that Zaidi won’t be inflexible.
Again, the Dodgers are the model. Build farm system (check). Find diamonds in the rough (check) AND when the opportunity strikes to sign an occasional whale, do it. (Giants haven’t checked that box).
The Giants should have a very large budget. At or near whatever the figure is they determine for a luxury tax. They are a top 5 team value wise.
Finally, long term contracts may not always pan out as you hope. But you can’t only evaluate on numbers. Zito is a great example. Bad deal. Right? Yet Giants don’t win in ‘12 without him. From an organizational standpoint, that alone made the deal worthwhile.
Agree with you Lex. But this last year was just surreal, almost as if it existed in some alternate universe. We got incredible mileage out of a roster that subjectively felt and seemed a bit above average but certainly not a pennant winner. A career year from Crawford, some streaky pitching at the right time, a nice find in Doval, and a nice stretch run that kept LA at bay until the end. Whoda thunk 107 wins back in April? It's hard to separate how much of that was due to Farhan's personnel moves, how much was longball improvement due to altered swing angles, and how much was just the way the ball bounced. I don't think the analytics guys can say 2021 was statistically pre-ordained.
I don't think anyone believes the Giants can just stand pat. But I know nothing. I never thought Crawford was a cleanup hitter and I was wrong last year. I never thought much of Belt as a clutch hitter and I was wrong last year, boy did we miss him down the stretch. I don't really think we have an everyday CF. Or an everyday C for that matter. Middle relief is traditionally a parking lot for 'tweeners, but hopefully Doval can be solid as an 8th or 9th inning closer and we can invest in a decent starter (I wasn't impressed by what little I saw of DeSciafani).
A side note: I wonder if "starters" are a dying breed. Back in the day you got 6-7 innings out of them. Now that seems to be the exception rather than the rule.
lex24 - lex24 - 12-01-2021
(12-01-2021, 05:15 PM)qwerty49 Wrote:(12-01-2021, 03:59 PM)lex24 Wrote:(12-01-2021, 02:00 PM)Giants Wrote:(12-01-2021, 01:15 PM)BobK Wrote: Wood signing announced. 2 years $ 25M.
I like the two year term. So far, Zaidi has done a nice job of signing guys to reasonable contracts. I agree with Phogge re: a RH OF with power (a very good one will cause Zaidi to go outside his financial comfort zone) and a couple more starters, giving SF some wiggle room when one needs some downtime.
It’s not Zaidi’s money. It his budget. Whatever that may be. If the Giants are going to pretend that they can’t compete money wise, then last year will be an aberration. They have lost Posey and Bryant. They are woefully short of right handed bats. Longer term contracts for hitters have less risk than for pitchers. If they are going to insist that they won’t go over 3 or 4 years, then im not particularly optimistic moving forward. Fortunately, im relatively confident that Zaidi won’t be inflexible.
Again, the Dodgers are the model. Build farm system (check). Find diamonds in the rough (check) AND when the opportunity strikes to sign an occasional whale, do it. (Giants haven’t checked that box).
The Giants should have a very large budget. At or near whatever the figure is they determine for a luxury tax. They are a top 5 team value wise.
Finally, long term contracts may not always pan out as you hope. But you can’t only evaluate on numbers. Zito is a great example. Bad deal. Right? Yet Giants don’t win in ‘12 without him. From an organizational standpoint, that alone made the deal worthwhile.
Agree with you Lex. But this last year was just surreal, almost as if it existed in some alternate universe. We got incredible mileage out of a roster that subjectively felt and seemed a bit above average but certainly not a pennant winner. A career year from Crawford, some streaky pitching at the right time, a nice find in Doval, and a nice stretch run that kept LA at bay until the end. Whoda thunk 107 wins back in April? It's hard to separate how much of that was due to Farhan's personnel moves, how much was longball improvement due to altered swing angles, and how much was just the way the ball bounced. I don't think the analytics guys can say 2021 was statistically pre-ordained.
I don't think anyone believes the Giants can just stand pat. But I know nothing. I never thought Crawford was a cleanup hitter and I was wrong last year. I never thought much of Belt as a clutch hitter and I was wrong last year, boy did we miss him down the stretch. I don't really think we have an everyday CF. Or an everyday C for that matter. Middle relief is traditionally a parking lot for 'tweeners, but hopefully Doval can be solid as an 8th or 9th inning closer and we can invest in a decent starter (I wasn't impressed by what little I saw of DeSciafani).
A side note: I wonder if "starters" are a dying breed. Back in the day you got 6-7 innings out of them. Now that seems to be the exception rather than the rule.
The Athletic is reporting that Dodgers resigned Taylor. Expected. But darn……
RE: Giants/Niners 2021 thread - DC 86 - 12-01-2021
Stroman signing with the Cubs, not that he was a possibility for SF.
RE: Giants/Niners 2021 thread - BobK - 12-01-2021
A local writer thought stoman was very possible
RE: Giants/Niners 2021 thread - lex24 - 12-01-2021
(12-01-2021, 07:00 PM)BobK Wrote: A local writer thought stoman was very possible
3 years 75 mill. Opt out after year 2. In today’s game he’s an innings eater. Would have played well in SF. Wonder how hard they tried…..
RE: Giants/Niners 2021 thread - DC 86 - 12-01-2021
(12-01-2021, 07:05 PM)lex24 Wrote:(12-01-2021, 07:00 PM)BobK Wrote: A local writer thought stoman was very possible
3 years 75 mill. Opt out after year 2. In today’s game he’s an innings eater. Would have played well in SF. Wonder how hard they tried…..
I don't know who the local writer was but I don't believe SF was in the mix once things got serious. $71 mm guaranteed with an additional $4 mm possible in escalators.
lex24 - lex24 - 12-01-2021
(12-01-2021, 07:18 PM)DC 86 Wrote:(12-01-2021, 07:05 PM)lex24 Wrote:(12-01-2021, 07:00 PM)BobK Wrote: A local writer thought stoman was very possible
3 years 75 mill. Opt out after year 2. In today’s game he’s an innings eater. Would have played well in SF. Wonder how hard they tried…..
I don't know who the local writer was but I don't believe SF was in the mix once things got serious. $71 mm guaranteed with an additional $4 mm possible in escalators.
I suspect you are right. But does that suggest a problem? Are the Giants only interested in bargains? Or, perhaps the Giants feel he’s too much like DeSclafani and Cobb- basically a sinker/ slider / split guy. That would, to me make sense. 3 guys in rotation with similar stuff. All RH. Add Webb and you have another RH sinker guy. Although Webb’s stuff includes a terrific change up and his movement is off the charts. Still, perhaps better to add a lefty. Or a RH power type. Montas comes to mind.
RE: lex24 - DC 86 - 12-01-2021
(12-01-2021, 08:20 PM)lex24 Wrote:(12-01-2021, 07:18 PM)DC 86 Wrote:(12-01-2021, 07:05 PM)lex24 Wrote:(12-01-2021, 07:00 PM)BobK Wrote: A local writer thought stoman was very possible
3 years 75 mill. Opt out after year 2. In today’s game he’s an innings eater. Would have played well in SF. Wonder how hard they tried…..
I don't know who the local writer was but I don't believe SF was in the mix once things got serious. $71 mm guaranteed with an additional $4 mm possible in escalators.
I suspect you are right. But does that suggest a problem? Are the Giants only interested in bargains? Or, perhaps the Giants feel he’s too much like DeSclafani and Cobb- basically a sinker/ slider guy.
Stroman is only 30 (turns 31 in May), remarkably durable (32+ starts in four of the last five seasons that he played - he opted out of 2020), and coming off a strong year, so a three year deal would seem to be pretty safe.
He's not everyone's cup of tea but SF did express interest to his agent and had to know that the price tag would be in this range. If the Giants only want reclamation projects or didn't want a ground ball specialist then they wouldn't have been involved at all, one would think.
Stroman is a New Yorker who has spent his entire career in the East and initially made it known he wanted to stay in New York (interest not reciprocated) and then put out tweets indicating that he was interested in Boston or Chicago. So maybe he was only going to consider a west coast team if they paid a premium?
In any case Zaidi clearly follows the Andrew Friedman philosophy of sticking to a number, and in this market and in this era it's perfectly reasonable to build around a journeyman rotation, a deep and effective bullpen, and a powerful hitting attack. But if that's the plan then the Giants need 1) about seven of those types of starters, not 4-5, because you can't count on any of those types being very good, 2) additional elite hitters because their best 2021 batters have either retired or are due for major regression.
I'm not sure who the additional starters should be but Zaidi's track record is very strong. I assume that he's looking at guys like Tyler Anderson or Danny Duffy. On offense adding Suzuki seems obvious but there is a lot of competition. Castellanos and Schwarber are very good hitters and intriguing possibilities assuming that the universal DH is implemented. Beyond that I assume that Zaidi will be monitoring guys like Conforto who could potentially end up settling for a short term deal if a real market for their services doesn't develop.
Personally I love the idea of signing Rodon who is a 28 (soon to be 29) year old left-hander with genuine premium ability. Even on a one- or two-year deal he will be very expensive and could produce nothing due to injury, but it's an upside play with tremendous upside. As per my earlier post, high revenue team like the Giants should not be afraid to spend money and have the wherewithal to take calculated risks like this one, but that's just me.
P.S. I saw your suggestion to acquire some of the A's pitchers, starting with Montas. That's certainly reasonable as an option, but if you're a big money team you should be using that money to acquire talent on the open market and not give up prospects unless absolutely necessary. The Dodgers have used their prospect capital to acquire higher end talent but otherwise fill needs by taking expensive contracts off of other teams' payroll or venturing in the free agent market, and SF should try to follow this philosophy too given their financial advantages.
lex24 - lex24 - 12-01-2021
(12-01-2021, 09:08 PM)DC 86 Wrote:(12-01-2021, 08:20 PM)lex24 Wrote:(12-01-2021, 07:18 PM)DC 86 Wrote:(12-01-2021, 07:05 PM)lex24 Wrote:(12-01-2021, 07:00 PM)BobK Wrote: A local writer thought stoman was very possible
3 years 75 mill. Opt out after year 2. In today’s game he’s an innings eater. Would have played well in SF. Wonder how hard they tried…..
I don't know who the local writer was but I don't believe SF was in the mix once things got serious. $71 mm guaranteed with an additional $4 mm possible in escalators.
I suspect you are right. But does that suggest a problem? Are the Giants only interested in bargains? Or, perhaps the Giants feel he’s too much like DeSclafani and Cobb- basically a sinker/ slider guy.
Stroman is only 30 (turns 31 in May), remarkably durable (32+ starts in four of the last five seasons that he played - he opted out of 2020), and coming off a strong year, so a three year deal would seem to be pretty safe.
He's not everyone's cup of tea but SF did express interest to his agent and had to know that the price tag would be in this range. If the Giants only want reclamation projects or didn't want a ground ball specialist then they wouldn't have been involved at all, one would think.
Stroman is a New Yorker who has spent his entire career in the East and initially made it known he wanted to stay in New York (interest not reciprocated) and then put out tweets indicating that he was interested in Boston or Chicago. So maybe he was only going to consider a west coast team if they paid a premium?
In any case Zaidi clearly follows the Andrew Friedman philosophy of sticking to a number, and in this market and in this era it's perfectly reasonable to build around a journeyman rotation, a deep and effective bullpen, and a powerful hitting attack. But if that's the plan then the Giants need 1) about seven of those types of starters, not 4-5, because you can't count on any of those types being very good, 2) additional elite hitters because their best 2021 batters have either retired or are due for major regression.
I'm not sure who the additional starters should be but Zaidi's track record is very strong. I assume that he's looking at guys like Tyler Anderson or Danny Duffy. On offense adding Suzuki seems obvious but there is a lot of competition. Castellanos and Schwarber are very good hitters and intriguing possibilities assuming that the universal DH is implemented. Beyond that I assume that Zaidi will be monitoring guys like Conforto who could potentially end up settling for a short term deal if a real market for their services doesn't develop.
Personally I love the idea of signing Rodon who is a 28 (soon to be 29) year old left-hander with genuine premium ability. Even on a one- or two-year deal he will be very expensive and could produce nothing due to injury, but it's an upside play with tremendous upside. As per my earlier post, high revenue team like the Giants should not be afraid to spend money and have the wherewithal to take calculated risks like this one, but that's just me.
Good post. Appreciate yours insights. Biggest concern to me is RH hitting. Castellanos would be a great add. I assume he (and Schwarber) are going to wait until Universal DH comes into CBA. Which will increase their value.
RE: lex24 - DC 86 - 12-01-2021
(12-01-2021, 09:11 PM)lex24 Wrote: Good post. Appreciate yours insights.
Thanks, you too. Added a P.S. above also.
RE: Giants/Niners 2021 thread - Mick - 12-01-2021
RHP Sam Delaplane, LHP Joe Palumbo and RF Luis Gonzalez elected free agency. RHP John Brebbia, LHP Jarlin Garcia and Austin Slater agreed to 1-year contracts. Contracts tendered to Yastrzemski, Ruf, Casali and Leone. Wood, Cobb, DeSclafani, Webb & maybe Brebbia fill out the rotation.
RE: Giants/Niners 2021 thread - BostonCard - 12-01-2021
The lockout has officially begun. So, I imagine there won’t be any more news until the CBA is signed.
BC
RE: Giants/Niners 2021 thread - Mick - 12-02-2021
Switching to the 49ers, now 6-5 with the sixth best record in the NFC. They have the following six games left. Fun fact, five of their six remaining opponents lost last weekend, four of the six have lost multiple games in a row while the Niners have won three in a row and four of their last five. Niners moved up in NFL power rankings from #14 to #12 last week:
at Seahawks (3-8). Lost 3 in a row. Should win. Desperate, just signed 36 year old Adrian Peterson to shore up league's 25th ranked rushing attack.
at Cincinnati Bengals (7-4). Has won 2 in a row against Raiders and Steelers. Six players on questionable injury list (Tate, Evans, Thomas, Philllips, Kareem, Reiff). Tough one. 10 a.m. body clock time. I think this is a loss.
Atlanta Falcons (5-6). Won last game, barely beating Jags after two crushing losses. This should be a home win.
at Tennessee Titans (8-4). Lost 2 in a row to lowly Texans and crunched by Patriots. 8-4 record masks fact that they've scored 304 but given up 290. Scoring has declined or stayed the same four straight games, held scoreless in first half against Texans. Might could maybe win this one. I think it's a win.
Houston Texans (2-9). Lost 1 in a row. Win over Titans. Had lost eight in a row. Home game win.
at Los Angeles Rams (7-4). Lost 3 in a row. This will be an interesting one. Last game of the season, likely playoff implications. Niners had convincing 31-10 at home two weeks ago. I think it's a win.
5-1 to close out regular season, 11-6 overall projected record.
Other fun fact. Offensive genius/guru Kyle Shanahan ranks 27th in the league in 4th down success.
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/32706688/how-good-your-nfl-coach-fourth-calls-rank-all-32
RE: Giants/Niners 2021 thread - Phogge - 12-02-2021
Son shoots Titans games. Probably biggest injury loss in the NFL,Derrick Henry. MaCaffrey similar but Carolina not a division leader. Also lost Julio Jones and other WR’s. Taylor Lewan, Pro Bowl LT playing hurt. Tough game on the road.
lex24 - lex24 - 12-02-2021
(12-01-2021, 10:55 PM)Mick Wrote: RHP Sam Delaplane, LHP Joe Palumbo and RF Luis Gonzalez elected free agency. RHP John Brebbia, LHP Jarlin Garcia and Austin Slater agreed to 1-year contracts. Contracts tendered to Yastrzemski, Ruf, Casali and Leone. Wood, Cobb, DeSclafani, Webb & maybe Brebbia fill out the rotation.
Brebbia is not a starter. Zaidi will pick up a least one more. Probably through a trade. Or maybe waiver wire pick ups. Hjelle Beede and Long willl also have opportunities. For Beede probably his last chance. Harrison a couple years away. Would Giants trade him for Montas, Bassit or Manea?
RE: Giants/Niners 2021 thread - BobK - 12-02-2021
Harrison is a keeper. Would be beyond dumb to trade him. So sure hope not
Now we wait for the owners, yes my thought, to not kill the golden goose
However one thing both groups agree on is the universal DH. About time
RE: Giants/Niners 2021 thread - Phogge - 12-02-2021
Ted Williams would have been crazy giddy for the DH when he played.
Maybe Farhan can sign Jim Thome or Edgar Martinez.
RE: Giants/Niners 2021 thread - BostonCard - 12-02-2021
So apparently MLB had two different balls last season?
https://www.npr.org/2021/12/01/1060579444/news-the-mlb-used-2-types-of-baseballs-in-2021-could-throw-curveball-into-labor
I know A/B testing is all the rage, but it seems like a bad idea in the major leagues.
BC
RE: lex24 - Giants - 12-02-2021
(12-02-2021, 08:14 AM)lex24 Wrote:(12-01-2021, 10:55 PM)Mick Wrote: RHP Sam Delaplane, LHP Joe Palumbo and RF Luis Gonzalez elected free agency. RHP John Brebbia, LHP Jarlin Garcia and Austin Slater agreed to 1-year contracts. Contracts tendered to Yastrzemski, Ruf, Casali and Leone. Wood, Cobb, DeSclafani, Webb & maybe Brebbia fill out the rotation.
Brebbia is not a starter. Zaidi will pick up a least one more. Probably through a trade. Or maybe waiver wire pick ups. Hjelle Beede and Long willl also have opportunities. For Beede probably his last chance. Harrison a couple years away. Would Giants trade him for Montas, Bassit or Manea?
I would expect at least a couple more pitchers will be added to the roster. I hesitate to use the word “starters” after reading that Zaidi is looking for enough pitching to get through a 162 game season (in 2021, SF used eight different starters, excl. openers). His focus is on bulk as we inexorably move towards “rotations” of 7-8 guys.
I think of it as MLB becoming more the NBA. In the days of yore, the starting five would play 40+ minutes each, with some playing all 48. Now, the top players are on the floor for 38 minutes, give or take. Instead of a starting five, you have 8-9 guys who rotate throughout the game.
In baseball today, for the most part, the starters are going 6-7 innings. The notion of a complete game is fading into past. The next step will be a lengthening of the starting five to a rotation of 6-7 guys. While it may sound crazy, I think Zaidi’s signings this fall have demonstrated his desire to lead this movement. I look for SF to have a small army of interchangeable pitchers whose responsibilities can be altered quickly to meet the needs of the moment.
Why spend $130 million on one guy when you can spend a lot less on a handful of guys who can get the job done equally as effectively and more frequently…..
RE: Giants/Niners 2021 thread - Phogge - 12-03-2021
Rule 5 draft news. The MLB part is postponed after an erroneous report that it was cancelled. The MILB part will go on as scheduled. There is some confusion about Seth Corry's status. The rule states that a player signed when he was 19 can be picked after he's completed four years in the minors. Five years for kids signed when they are 18. Would seem to make Corry eligible since he was 18 (born 11-3-98) when he signed in 2017. However 2019 was a dark year for minor league baseball. So has Corry played four or five years? Somebody ask Larry Baer.