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RE: Giants/Niners 2021 thread - teejers1 - 12-20-2021

(12-19-2021, 05:57 PM)BobK Wrote:  The win included two awesome goal line stands and a great day by Jimmy G.  Now solid as a wild card

Are the 'Niners solidly "in" as a wild card if they finish 1-2 in last 3 games (which I believe is a distinct possibility)?  I haven't done the math/looked at % likelihoods or what have you, but I think this thing is still reasonably open.

Assume either AZ or Rams will get one wild card.

I could see the Saints winning out and finishing 10-7 (that would be #2 WC over 9-8 'Niners).

While I don't think the Seahawks will win out - if they do, then they'll be ahead of 'Niners due to head-to-head, right?

I don't think the Vikes will win out (Bears, Rams, Packers) - and 'Niners should have tiebreaker over them - but the the Pack may not NEED to win the last game and could take foot off the gas in that one.

Lastly, the Eagles.  They have WFT, Giants, WFT, Cowboys.  They could finish 10-7 (unlikely) or 9-8 (not sure of tiebreak in that situation).

So while it looks pretty good for the 'Niners, it's not a lock by any means.

RE: Giants/Niners 2021 thread - Phogge - 12-20-2021

This year nothing is a lock. The Cards have flattened out and Covid is taking out large numbers of players. Supposedly the Niners have only one unvaccinated player (religious). They lose Mostert and Mitchell steps up, they lose Mitchell and Wilson steps up. It’s no accident, the Niners open up holes and the backs hit thenm downhill unlike Jones and Peat for Stanford who hit the “hole” in slow motion.

Shanahan is in high gear, would be a shock if they lose two games. In Bosa they trust.

RE: Giants/Niners 2021 thread - French Rage - 12-20-2021

They have 6 losses and are in the #2 WC slot.  Behind them are a bunch of 7 loss teams fighting for WC #3, though three of those 4 still have yet to play (WAS, PHI, MIN), so they may gain their 8th (WAS/PHI play so one of them should), and NO having already played.  So the 49ers would have to fall behind two of them, with three left to play.  Not super likely, but also not impossible; I think the prediction sites say 88% likely they're in.  (Beating Seattle would have made it all but over.......)

RE: Giants/Niners 2021 thread - Phogge - 12-21-2021

Andrew Suarez off a great year in the KBL has signed with the Yakult Swallows of the JBL. Looking for an MLB return in 2023.

lex24 - lex24 - 12-21-2021

(12-20-2021, 12:48 PM)Phogge Wrote:  This year nothing is a lock. The Cards have flattened out and Covid is taking out large numbers of players. Supposedly the Niners have only one unvaccinated player (religious). They lose Mostert and Mitchell steps up, they lose Mitchell and Wilson steps up. It’s no accident, the Niners open up holes and the backs hit thenm downhill unlike Jones and Peat for Stanford who hit the “hole” in slow motion.

Shanahan is in high gear, would be a shock if they lose two games. In Bosa they trust.

Hard to hit a hole when two or three d-lineman penetrate in the backfield.  I don’t blame Stanfords backs.
(12-20-2021, 03:16 PM)French Rage Wrote:  They have 6 losses and are in the #2 WC slot.  Behind them are a bunch of 7 loss teams fighting for WC #3, though three of those 4 still have yet to play (WAS, PHI, MIN), so they may gain their 8th (WAS/PHI play so one of them should), and NO having already played.  So the 49ers would have to fall behind two of them, with three left to play.  Not super likely, but also not impossible; I think the prediction sites say 88% likely they're in.  (Beating Seattle would have made it all but over.......)

Thursday will be a tough game.  But if they beat titans, they are a lock.  Only will have to beat Texans at home for 10 wins.  If they lose, it’s a crapshoot.  Cause I don’t see them beating Rams in  LA. 

Looking back - the losses to Seattle and the second loss to Ariz are the games that made this season less than it should have been.  Two of those they certainly should have won.  In which case they’d be battling for the division.  

I think right now, they are one of those teams that no one wants to face. My hope is they get in and face GB eventually.  And beat the biggest whiner in the league. So sick of the chip on his shoulder that the Niners didn’t pick him. It was the best thing that happened to him. Instead of getting pounded on awful teams with a revolving door of coaches and offensive coordinators, he got to learn for a couple years and then take the reins of a very good football team. Alex Smith, the anti-Rodgers in every way- should have been so lucky.

I can’t stand Rodgers; but he’s a great QB. Maybe still would have been if Niners drafted him. Maybe not. Who knows. I do know that going to GB was a major plus. So, get over it already….

RE: Giants/Niners 2021 thread - Phogge - 12-21-2021

Jones and Peat can't break a tackle Lex. No matter if there is a hole or there isn't. They go down easy. Repeated recruiting failures at RB.

Wilson and Mitchell drag tacklers and hardly ever go down from the first hit.

You still haven't addressed the lack of experience of Lance vs keeping Jimmy.

RE: Giants/Niners 2021 thread - lex24 - 12-21-2021

(12-21-2021, 10:42 AM)Phogge Wrote:  Jones and Peat can't break a tackle Lex. No matter if there is a hole or there isn't. They go down easy. Repeated recruiting failures at RB.

Wilson and Mitchell drag tacklers and hardly ever go down from the first hit.

You still haven't addressed the lack of experience of Lance vs keeping Jimmy.

I thought I had addressed the keeping Jimmy question.  I believe they  are going to trade him if they can. Get his salary off the books and use the money to fill holes - especially in the defensive backfield. If they keep JG it’s an admission that they screwed up on Lance.  JG is playing well right now. So, no question he’s the guy finishing season. And he’s improving his trade value. I’d be talking with the Panthers. Their QB situation is a mess. Darnold bombed. Newton is awful.

As for Jones and Peat, I’m not comparing them to NFL backs.  Jones looked pretty solid in 2020.  When he actually had some holes to run through.  As for breaking tackles - it’s one thing to get hit five yards down field after the burst through a hole. And quite another to get hit in the backfield after you’ve taken one step.

I know in the NFL they keep statistics on yards after contact. And also on defensive penetration. I think they do in NCAA as well.   I’d love to see those figures for Jones in 2020 versus 2021. I’ll bet you the libation of your choice that Jones had a better yards after contact number in 2020 then in 2021. Because I’ll also bet you a second libation that if they keep the stats in college there was significantly less defensive penetration in 2020 than 2021. To me the two go together.

Peat is a change of pace back.  Quicker. More elusive.  I don’t expect him to be the guy breaking tackles. I do expect him being the guy making people miss.  Again, tough to do when there are a couple d linemen in his face after he takes about a half step.  You can’t have a running game (I don’t care how good your back is (unless, of course, he’s Jim Brown :)) if the o-line  can’t stop defensive penetration.

RE: Giants/Niners 2021 thread - Phogge - 12-21-2021

The Super Bowl window is narrow. The Niners will be at a peak in 2022 and it will all ride on a QB who basically has had a cup of coffee in action since high school. I think Jimmy will be a nicer next year.

And lex take a peak at the digital content. peat and Jones were easy to take down in the backfield and five yards beyond the LOS. I think a bunch of players quit about mid season.

RE: Giants/Niners 2021 thread - lex24 - 12-21-2021

(12-21-2021, 01:17 PM)Phogge Wrote:  The Super Bowl window is narrow. The Niners will be at a peak in 2022 and it will all ride on a QB who basically has had a cup of coffee in action since high school. I think Jimmy will be a nicer next year.

And lex take a peak at the digital content. peat and Jones were easy to take down in the backfield and five yards beyond the LOS. I think a bunch of players quit about mid season.

Be stunned if they keep Jimmy. Smith/Mahomes is the model.  Alex played well and was gone anyway.  Freeing up cap space will allow them to get all those defensive backs you want and they need!

RE: Giants/Niners 2021 thread - Giants - 12-21-2021

(12-21-2021, 01:17 PM)Phogge Wrote:  The Super Bowl window is narrow. The Niners will be at a peak in 2022 and it will all ride on a QB who basically has had a cup of coffee in action since high school. I think Jimmy will be a nicer next year.

And lex take a peak at the digital content. peat and Jones were easy to take down in the backfield and five yards beyond the LOS. I think a bunch of players quit about mid season.

I’ll go with lex on the Garappolo/Lance  topic.  Trade JG in the off-season while he is at the top of his value curve.  I think he might bring a second round choice back which somewhat mitigates the loss of picks to Miami (particularly if the trade is to a lousy team with a high draft slot).  Lance was a costly decision.  It is time to see if the trade was worth it.

RE: Giants/Niners 2021 thread - Phogge - 12-21-2021

You guys must play KENO a lot.

RE: Giants/Niners 2021 thread - Giants - 12-21-2021

(12-21-2021, 02:53 PM)Phogge Wrote:  You guys must play KENO a lot.

Nah, craps give the bettor the best odds….

RE: Giants/Niners 2021 thread - Phogge - 12-21-2021

(12-21-2021, 03:30 PM)Giants Wrote:  
(12-21-2021, 02:53 PM)Phogge Wrote:  You guys must play KENO a lot.

Nah, craps give the bettor the best odds….

You missed the point. KENO is a crapshoot just as Trey Lance is.

lex24 - lex24 - 12-21-2021

(12-21-2021, 02:53 PM)Phogge Wrote:  You guys must play KENO a lot.

LOL.  I’m not the one that bet my job on Lance.  One of the things that supposedly worked in his favor is he came out of an offense that is somewhat similar to Shanahan’s. He was under center at times, play action, fullback, tight ends.  So, Shanahan shouldn’t have to change what he does. Just add some stuff that takes advantage of Lance’s legs and downfield arm.  I think the big question is accuracy.  

The combo of bringing added athleticism to the position and being able potentially to get some of JG’s salary off the books (he’s due 27 mill next year.  If they release him, it’s a 1.6 mill cap hit.  His No-trade clause ends after this season) leads me to believe  they will look to trade him - with the value they receive being tied somewhat to how much salary the trade partner is willing to take on.

RE: Giants/Niners 2021 thread - Giants - 12-21-2021

(12-21-2021, 05:01 PM)Phogge Wrote:  
(12-21-2021, 03:30 PM)Giants Wrote:  
(12-21-2021, 02:53 PM)Phogge Wrote:  You guys must play KENO a lot.

Nah, craps give the bettor the best odds….

You missed the point. KENO is a crapshoot just as Trey Lance is.

Yeah, I get it.  Heck, betting that JG will stay healthy is also a crapshoot.  His track record isn’t very good.

RE: Giants/Niners 2021 thread - Phogge - 12-21-2021

But there is his winning percentage.

OK, so if you are correct what backup will they go after? I don’t think Dylan Paultz is draftable.

RE: Giants/Niners 2021 thread - Mick - 12-21-2021

Per pro-football-reference.com, Garoppolo is #T6 in the NFL in passer rating (100.7).  Rodgers, Stafford, Wilson, Murray and Cousins are the top five.  He's #10 in QBR (also behind Brady, Wentz, Mahomes, Allen and Tagavailoa.

Mac Jones is #13 in QBR.  Trevor Lawrence is #29, Davis Mills is #30, Justin Fields is #31 and Zach Wilson is #32.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2021/passing.htm#passing::pass_rating

RE: Giants/Niners 2021 thread - qwerty49 - 12-21-2021

(12-21-2021, 05:48 PM)Giants Wrote:  
(12-21-2021, 05:01 PM)Phogge Wrote:  
(12-21-2021, 03:30 PM)Giants Wrote:  
(12-21-2021, 02:53 PM)Phogge Wrote:  You guys must play KENO a lot.

Nah, craps give the bettor the best odds….

You missed the point. KENO is a crapshoot just as Trey Lance is.

Yeah, I get it.  Heck, betting that JG will stay healthy is also a crapshoot.  His track record isn’t very good.

LOL and right in front of us is the etymology of "crapshoot."  :)

lex24 - lex24 - 12-22-2021

(12-21-2021, 10:41 PM)Mick Wrote:  Per pro-football-reference.com, Garoppolo is #T6 in the NFL in passer rating (100.7).  Rodgers, Stafford, Wilson, Murray and Cousins are the top five.  He's #10 in QBR (also behind Brady, Wentz, Mahomes, Allen and Tagavailoa.

Mac Jones is #13 in QBR.  Trevor Lawrence is #29, Davis Mills is #30, Justin Fields is #31 and Zach Wilson is #32.



https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2021/passing.htm#passing::pass_rating

Not surprising.  Jones is on a good team. With a fantastic coach.  The others are in sh-t shows.  

Jones is going to be good, I believe.  As for the others, history shows at least one will be a bust.  Take your pick. My bet is Wilson.
(12-21-2021, 08:20 PM)Phogge Wrote:  But there is his winning percentage.

OK, so if you are correct what backup will they go after? I don’t think Dylan Paultz is draftable.

Good question.  Don’t know who is out there. Maybe they bring Mullins back….. :)

RE: Giants/Niners 2021 thread - cardcrimson - 12-23-2021

Ooof. Up 10-0 at the half. D gives up a bunch of 3rd and a mile conversions, Janeane throws a couple of picks and adios. This team just isn't that good.