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RE: Women's Tennis 2024 - ColoradoTree - 05-13-2024

(05-12-2024, 11:08 AM)Spiny_Norman Wrote:  
(05-11-2024, 05:58 PM)ColoradoTree Wrote:  Our match will be at 9am, followed by Michigan-Pepperdine at 11:30am, UVA-A&M at 2pm, and UCLA-Tennessee at 4:30pm.

9 am pacific, but 11 am central (local) time?

Earlier is better weather-wise in that part of the country. Forecast high temp is around 80. Not too bad. But the wind often picks up in the afternoon. This is where "the wind comes sweeping down the plain."

Yep, that's right. A little early for our team's internal clocks, but it sets things up nicely, so we'll have more rest than our opponent in each succeeding round.

RE: Women's Tennis 2024 - ColoradoTree - 05-14-2024

Let's look ahead to #7 Georgia and how we stack up against them:

Ranked players:

#16 Dasha Vidmanova
#41 Alexandra Vecic
#65 Mell Reasco
#70 Anastasiia Lopata 
#87 Mai Nirundorn

Whereas we have #7 Ma, #25 Blake, and #29 Yepifanova

Doubles teams:

#14 Mert/Vidmanova
#55 Grant/Nirundorn

Whereas we have #10 Ma/Yepifanova

Common opponents:

* Texas: we won 4-3, they lost 4-3
* Florida: we won 4-0; they won 4-1 (National Indoors) and 4-3 (regular season)
* Texas A&M: we won 4-3; they won 4-2 (National Indoors), 4-3 (regular season), and 4-1 (SEC tournament)
* Ohio State: we won 4-1; they lost 4-3
* LSU: we won 4-0; they won 4-0 twice
* Cal: we won 5-2 (regular season) and 4-0 (Pac-12 tournament); they won 4-2 (NCAAs)

We've lost twice this year: once to Oklahoma State at Indoor Nationals, and at home to UCLA. Georgia has lost four times: 7-0 at UNC to start the season, 4-3 to Texas, 4-3 to Ohio State, and 4-3 at Auburn in something of a surprise. It's the latter three matches that might tell us something:

* against Auburn, UGA won doubles but then lost on the top four courts;
* against Texas (in Austin), UGA lost doubles, got wins from Vecic on 1, Vidmanova on 2, and Nirundorn on 6, but they lost from 3-5; in our match against Texas (at home), we also lost doubles and Court 3 in singles (Yepifanova got crushed by Rapolu) and we also won on 1 and 2, but Blokhina beat Chavatipon in 3 on 4 while Chavatipon beat Lopata in 3, Hui beat Pachkaleva on 5 while Pachkaleva beat Grant in three sets; but on the flip side, UGA's Nirundorn beat Ovrootsky solidly, who in turn beat Xu in three sets. 
* against Ohio State, UGA won doubles and courts 4 and 6 in singles, but lost on Courts 1, 2, 3, and 5. When we played them, we won doubles, Ma cruised on 2, Blake got crushed on 1, and Yepifanova and Blokhina both won close matches. Hui was in a second set tiebreaker after winning her first set, and Xu was up 3-0 in her third set when the match was abandoned. 

Georgia in the SEC

I don't want to mince words here--Georgia is dangerous, and they cruised in the SEC tournament with little difficulty. That A&M team that added Carson Branstine and just knocked off the preseason #1 in UNC? Yeah, UGA beat them 4-1 in the SEC title match. That Tennessee team that just knocked off previously unbeaten #1 Oklahoma State in Stillwater? Yeah, UGA beat them 4-1 in the regular season and 4-0 in the SEC semis

Since their hiccup at Auburn, they've won ten straight. And it's no accident that the SEC has three teams in the final 8--it's a deep conference. You may not always see teams at the absolute top of the rankings, but it's a minefield of a regular season, with a lot of teams in the teens and twenties that can take you out.

RE: Women's Tennis 2024 - oldalum - 05-14-2024

Looking just at the teams' records, this seems like essentially a toss-up with a slight edge to us--as the seedings suggest. I have to trust that our traditional end-of-season intangibles and the home court advantage will be decisive (3 out of the 4 Georgia's losses were away), but I'm preparing mentally for a nail biter!

RE: Women's Tennis 2024 - ColoradoTree - 05-14-2024

Well, not really a home court advantage, but hopefully a neutral-court advantage? Good to get the Bulldogs out of Athens, that's for sure.

Here's how we'll line up, with each player/duo's record at that line in parentheses as well as their preseason ranking (as a proxy for general talent rather than this season's performance):

Doubles:

1. #10 Ma/Yepifanova (10-5, #60) vs. #14 Mert/Vidmanova (17-7)
2. Blake/Blokhina (5-4, #6) vs. #55 Nirundorn/Grant (14-5, #12)
3. Hui/Xu (18-5) vs. Lopata/Reasco (10-1)

Singles:

1. #25 Blake (13-3, #14) vs. #16 Vidmanova (12-2, #6)
2. #7 Ma (16-2, #26) vs. #41 Vecic (6-4, #1 newcomer)
3. #29 Yepifanova (12-3, #21) vs. #65 Reasco (7-7, #35)
4. Blokhina (9-4, #54) vs. #70 Lopata (13-3, #61)
5. Hui (9-3, #2 newcomer) vs. Grant (13-3)
6. Xu (5-4, #118) vs. #87 Nirundorn (12-4)

Georgia also has the #6 newcomer in Aysegul Mert, who is listed on the official roster at the #5 line, but she hasn't played the last few matches, so it's unclear where she slots in. If she plays at 5 (where she's gone 7-0), then we'll see Grant at 6 (where she's gone 4-0). Georgia has been listing Mert at 5 and then pulling her, so it's hard to know what's going on there. 

These matches are where I miss Bobby Knight's contribution to the sport--he used to do detailed breakdowns, including showing each player's UTR, so you could have a decent sense about the talent disparity at each line going into the match. 

But given overall form, you'd have to give Georgia the advantage in doubles. So, we probably go into singles needing 4 wins. I like Ma to get us to 1-1, and then you need three more from Courts 1, 3, 4, 5, and 6. Lopata has been up and down, so I'm going to place some perhaps unwarranted faith in Blokhina to give us one of those wins. Blake has been playing so well of late, but so has Vidmanova, so I'm going to guess that one is a slow-mover. Reasco is playing really well of late, too, but I'm going to take Yepifanova for a win, too. And I'll take Hui to get us over the line, regardless of whether she plays Grant or Mert. As for Xu, I think she'll be on track to win if she plays Nirundorn, and I'm a lot less confident against Grant, given how well Grant has been playing. 

This is a match that is worthy of a final or semifinal, so any win, no matter how narrow the margin, is a great result. And while I still like our odds of winning four singles matches, I like our odds of winning a heck of a lot more if we can steal that doubles point, so that's a big time result to watch. Blake/Blokhina came into the season as the #6 team, so hopefully they can use that great 6-3 win over Abrams/Zyryanova as a springboard to us winning this doubles point.

RE: Women's Tennis 2024 - oldalum - 05-14-2024

(05-14-2024, 10:45 AM)ColoradoTree Wrote:  Well, not really a home court advantage, but hopefully a neutral-court advantage?
Yes my mistake.

RE: Women's Tennis 2024 - Sakibomb25 - 05-14-2024

I’m surprised at the lack of results for Blake and Blokhina, given how highly regarded they were coming into the season. Any reasons you think for their struggles this year?

RE: Women's Tennis 2024 - ColoradoTree - 05-16-2024

(05-14-2024, 12:53 PM)Sakibomb25 Wrote:  I’m surprised at the lack of results for Blake and Blokhina, given how highly regarded they were coming into the season. Any reasons you think for their struggles this year?

Heck if I know! I'd just like to see them find lightning in a bottle for a few more matches.

RE: Women's Tennis 2024 - ColoradoTree - 05-17-2024

I’ve got some appointments this morning, so I can’t follow along closely, but I’ll be sending good vibes—you all hold down the fort for me!

RE: Women's Tennis 2024 - M T - 05-17-2024

As ColoradoTree predicted, Georgia took the doubles point. 6-1 on 1. 6-2 on 3.

RE: Women's Tennis 2024 - M T - 05-17-2024

Stanford was 4-2 in the first sets.
First sets of individual matches were
#1 2-6  Blake -Vidmanova 
#2 6-4  Ma - Vecic
#3 7-5  Yepifanova - Reasco
#4 6-3  Blokhina - Lopata
#5 1-6  Hui - Grant
#6 6-0  Xu - Nirundorn
(Weirdly, I saw results that showed completion of sets, and then upon refresh, the sets were shown as unfinished.)

I wasn't glued to the scoreboard, but it seemed the Stanford players started off slowly.

RE: Women's Tennis 2024 - Lorcan - 05-17-2024

2-0 Georgia as Hui falls in rather tame fashion, 6-1 6-4 -- she had chances to get back to level in the second set but didn't take them.

Blokhina is struggling in the second set after taking the first - she'll likely go to a third. It'll be interesting to see if Blake can get all the way back in her match after breaking to get back on serve in the second.
Ma pulls us one back.

Blake 2-6 4-4*
Ma 6-4 6-1
Yepifanova 7-5 3-2*
Blokhina 6-3 1-6
Hui 1-6 4-6 
Xu 6-0 4-3*

RE: Women's Tennis 2024 - BobK - 05-17-2024

2-1 Georgia as Ma wins

RE: Women's Tennis 2024 - Lorcan - 05-17-2024

Disaster on court six, as Xu gets broken in the second, now trails 5-4 after being up a set. 

Similarly, Yepifanova gets broken on court 3, she now trails down a break 4-3 in the second, but up a set.
Blake played with fire, and she's still alive for now. Blake saves a match point down 2-6 4-5 40-40 - and wins to level the second set at 5-5. 

Valencia Xu has earned herself a quadruple break point on 6, we'll see if she can convert. We're still in this - just need to get some matches to start going our way. 

As I'm writing this, Xu does indeed break back to 5-5 -- if she can close this out, we just need to find two points elsewhere and I'm not sure I can trust Blokhina right now.
I think there's an extended pause on Court 4 as Blokhina appears to be getting some help from a trainer - it's going to be tough for her to get back in this if she's indeed hurt.
The trials and tribulations of being a Valencia Xu fan continue, as she breaks back and led 6-0 5-5 40-0, and proceeds to get broken to trail once more in the second set, 5-6. 

In good news, Yepifanova has righted ship and she's moving things forward in a tight second set affair. 

Blake is looking to take the second set to a tiebreaker, and we'll see if she keeps battling.
Blake gets broken, and Georgia moves to just a point away now, 3-1. Blake lost, 6-2 7-5. 

Now the pressure is really on everyone else to pull this match out of the top hat - and it's not looking great.

RE: Women's Tennis 2024 - M T - 05-17-2024

Xu breaks to bring the 2nd set to 6-6.  Meanwhile Blokhina is down a break in her 3rd set 3-1.  Yepifanova and her opponent are on serve.

Blokhina had a break point but lost it, now down 4-1. She's got to pull it out.

RE: Women's Tennis 2024 - Lorcan - 05-17-2024

Blokhina wasted 3 break points, and now trails 4-1 in the third. It's looking grim regardless of what Yepifanova and Xu do here. 

Yepifanova with three match points to close out Reasco.
Xu gets sent to a third, dropping the second set tiebreak, 7-4. 

Blokhina just.....is completely out of sorts.

RE: Women's Tennis 2024 - ColoradoTree - 05-17-2024

This sucks.

RE: Women's Tennis 2024 - Lorcan - 05-17-2024

That'll do it. Blokhina falls, 6-3 1-6 1-6. 

4-1 Georgia. Onto the individual competitions.

RE: Women's Tennis 2024 - BobK - 05-17-2024

Great season just short in the quarterfinals Sad day

RE: Women's Tennis 2024 - ColoradoTree - 05-17-2024

Some thoughts:

* Ma acquitted herself well today; Blake and Yepifanova did OK; everyone else disappointed.
* Doubles wasn't competitive, and that should be embarrassing.
* Xu's continued inability to finish and close out matches cost us today. Sure, perhaps we still end up losing 4-3, but momentum is a real, real thing in college tennis, and you get a little wind in your sails when you see your teammate just closed out a match. 
* Hui didn't show up. She has no business losing by that scoreline to Grant. I'm just incredibly disappointed in that effort. 
* Blokhina getting hurt is something we can't control, but susceptibility to injury depends in part on physical fitness, and Blokhina's fitness has at times been lacking this year. I would like to see that aspect of her game and approach improve next season. 
* Losing is one thing. Losing like this is something else. 
* Everyone except for Connie Ma let down Angelica Blake today, and that's something they're going to have to live with.

We had the four first sets we needed. Ma was the only one to convert. Blokhina fell apart. Xu did what Xu always does. And Yepifanova failed to close the deal and perhaps bring a little shot of momentum to the table. I'm used to a lot of grit from this program, and there was precious little grit on display today.

RE: Women's Tennis 2024 - Sakibomb25 - 05-17-2024

ColoradoTree - real talk here. It’s the beginning of the season. Where on the ladder would you place Yu? Would it have been preposterous to place her at No. 4, and move everyone else down? 

Also, do you think Blake’s body of work justified her at No. 1 this year? I know at the beginning of the year everyone was scratching their heads at Blake being above Ma and Yepifanova.