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Ranking the Pac-12 after Week 6 - OutsiderFan - 10-11-2015

Things are settling at the bottom, but are murkier at the top this week...

1. Stanford - Best combo of O & D in the conference, and solid on special teams
2. Utah - D is overrated and O is underwhelming, but nobody else deserves to be so high
3. Cal - Honestly should have beat Utah
4. ASU - Tough to put them above a USC that beat them 42-14, but it's what have you done for me lately
5. UCLA - Have beaten nobody of consequence and look very wobbly
6. UW - If they only had an offense
7. USC - 12 points at home against a team Cal put 30 on as a visitor, really?
8. UA - Terrible defense, but explosive on offense
9. WSU - Hey, the Cougs are 3-2!
10. UO - Yes, the Ducks are this bad
11. CU - Just don't have enough quality athletes
12. OSU - At least they play CU for a shot at their only conference win

Top 7 can all beat each other.  Pretty big gap between 7 and 8, 10 and 11.

Re: Ranking the Pac-12 after Week 6 - winflop - 10-11-2015

(10-11-2015, 06:50 AM)OutsiderFan link Wrote:Things are settling at the bottom, but are murkier at the top this week...

1. Stanford - Best combo of O & D in the conference, and solid on special teams
2. Utah - D is overrated and O is underwhelming, but nobody else deserves to be so high
3. Low APR U - Honestly should have beat Utah
4. ASU - Tough to put them above a Under Stanford Control that beat them 42-14, but it's what have you done for me lately
5. UCLA - Have beaten nobody of consequence and look very wobbly
6. UW - If they only had an offense
7. Under Stanford Control - 12 points at home against a team Low APR U put 30 on as a visitor, really?
8. UA - Terrible defense, but explosive on offense
9. WSU - Hey, the Cougs are 3-2!
10. UO - Yes, the Ducks are this bad
11. CU - Just don't have enough quality athletes
12. OSU - At least they play CU for a shot at their only conference win

Top 7 can all beat each other.  Pretty big gap between 7 and 8, 10 and 11.

1. Utah - their "bad" game (Cal) was better than Stanford's
2. Stanford - all signs point to the offense continuing to dominate against a porous & depleted UCLA front 7
T3. ASU - did the win over UCLA right the ship in Tempe? Will find out in the next couple weeks
T3. Low APR U - played well at Utah, but still haven't had a quality WIN in 3 seasons. Only reason they are here is the rest of the conference has played so poorly
T5. U$C, UCLA, UW, AZ - impossible to distinguish between such volatility & mediocrity
9. WSU
10. OU
T11. CU, OSU - who cares which team is worse?

Re: Ranking the Pac-12 after Week 6 - Mick - 10-11-2015

(10-11-2015, 06:50 AM)OutsiderFan link Wrote:Things are settling at the bottom, but are murkier at the top this week...

1. Stanford - Best combo of O & D in the conference, and solid on special teams
2. Utah - D is overrated and O is underwhelming, but nobody else deserves to be so high
3. Low APR U - Honestly should have beat Utah
4. ASU - Tough to put them above a Under Stanford Control that beat them 42-14, but it's what have you done for me lately
5. UCLA - Have beaten nobody of consequence and look very wobbly
6. UW - If they only had an offense
7. Under Stanford Control - 12 points at home against a team Low APR U put 30 on as a visitor, really?
8. UA - Terrible defense, but explosive on offense
9. WSU - Hey, the Cougs are 3-2!
10. UO - Yes, the Ducks are this bad
11. CU - Just don't have enough quality athletes
12. OSU - At least they play CU for a shot at their only conference win

Top 7 can all beat each other.  Pretty big gap between 7 and 8, 10 and 11.


I think if Stanford plays Utah at home or on a neutral site, Stanford wins.  I think an offensive juggernaut is just starting to feel itself, I really do.

I think with as much time as he's had to prepare, I think Shaw will create some terrifying plans for Thursday night's game.

I wonder what Goff is thinking as he looks at himself in the mirror this morning?

I wonder what Oregon's entire team is thinking as they look at themselves in the mirror this morning?

I wonder what Under Stanford Control's entire team was thinking on Friday morning, and whether the Stanford loss is the loss that broke their spirit?

I wonder what WSU thinks about being 3-1 outside of their loss to Portland State?

Re: Ranking the Pac-12 after Week 6 - winflop - 10-11-2015

(10-11-2015, 09:01 AM)Mick link Wrote:I think if Stanford plays Utah at home or on a neutral site, Stanford wins.  I think an offensive juggernaut is just starting to feel itself, I really do.

Pac-12 CCG is at a neutral (at best) site.  I like where the O is headed, but I also wonder if they've faced a defense as good as Utah's - or if they will the rest of the season.

(10-11-2015, 09:01 AM)Mick link Wrote:I think with as much time as he's had to prepare, I think Shaw will create some terrifying plans for Thursday night's game.

I'm not sure they will need it.  They may rush for 400 yards against that depleted front 7.

(10-11-2015, 09:01 AM)Mick link Wrote:I wonder what Goff is thinking as he looks at himself in the mirror this morning?

1. SHOW ME THE MONEY! I'm still gonna be a Top 5 draft pick!
2. Why wasn't I smart enough to get into Stanford?

(10-11-2015, 09:01 AM)Mick link Wrote:I wonder what Oregon's entire team is thinking as they look at themselves in the mirror this morning?

I know this one intimately as a life-long Cubs fan - WAIT TIL NEXT YEAR!

(10-11-2015, 09:01 AM)Mick link Wrote:I wonder what Under Stanford Control's entire team was thinking on Friday morning, and whether the Stanford loss is the loss that broke their spirit?

Who's gonna be the interim coach after we lose to UDFG?

(10-11-2015, 09:01 AM)Mick link Wrote:I wonder what WSU thinks about being 3-1 outside of their loss to Portland State?

Las Vegas is a nice place to spend a week in late December

Re: Ranking the Pac-12 after Week 6 - needle - 10-11-2015

I decided to take all subjectivity out and just go by record, plus add my thoughts on the resulting ranking:

1. Utah (5-0). Underwhelming performance against Kal, but quality victories at Oregon (considering margin of victory) and home against Michigan. Plus, the Kal game counts as a W. Who has three better W's in the Pac? No one. No. 1, and it's well-earned.

2. Kal (5-1). Arguably most impressive performance came on the road in Utah loss. Close wins at UW and at Texas have gained luster, yet it's not clear if UW or Texas will even be bowl teams. Would be in danger of being ranked too highly but...

3. Stanford (4-1). Only two wins have come against teams with winning records, and each of those teams has two losses. Not enough accomplished yet to state definitively they are better than Kal. (Though they are, of course.)

4. UCLA (4-1). Best result, blowout victory over Arizona, comes with an asterisk b/c Arizona's quarterback left the game in the second-quarter with an injury. Second-best result, narrow victory at home over two-loss BYU is not as impressive as Stanford's road win over two-loss USC. Other wins came against awful Virginia (no FBS wins this year) and UNLV (one FBS victory). Add in a loss by 15 points at home to a two-loss team, UCLA is definitely not deserving of a top-three ranking for the season, so far anyway...



Re: Ranking the Pac-12 after Week 6 - Leftcoast - 10-11-2015

OK, Needle, I'd almost accuse you of trolling us if we didn't know you.  :-)

The loss to Utah in an ugly game with 5 Goff interceptions is "arguably (Ca.l's) most impressive performance"? 

Damning them with such faint praise should be reason enough to knock the Bea.rs down a few slots.  Our North Bay rivals are coming off 5 seasons worth of losing and showed last night that they haven't figured out how to win meaningful games this season either.  While they will have other opportunities the bus door should still be shut.

"Don't jump on a Ca.l band wagon ever," is my every day advice but if you must at least wait until they show they can win a game that matters. :)

Re: Ranking the Pac-12 after Week 6 - French Rage - 10-11-2015

When do you suppose the last time was that both Washington schools beat ranked teams on the road?

Re: Ranking the Pac-12 after Week 6 - Mick - 10-11-2015

(10-11-2015, 09:37 AM)needle link Wrote:I decided to take all subjectivity out and just go by record, plus add my thoughts on the resulting ranking:

1. Utah (5-0). Underwhelming performance against Kal, but quality victories at Oregon (considering margin of victory) and home against Michigan. Plus, the Kal game counts as a W. Who has three better W's in the Pac? No one. No. 1, and it's well-earned.

I don't really think of the Michigan v. Utah game as a quality win any more than I think of Northwestern's victory over Stanford as a quality win.  Brand new coach, transfer quarterback, starting time of 10:30 p.m. body clock time in a game played at altitude all adds up to massive improvements in games 2 and 3 for the Wolverines.

Re: Ranking the Pac-12 after Week 6 - needle - 10-11-2015

While most people on this board think of Stanford as having a much better football team than Kal, judging strictly by results and schedule thus far, there's just not enough evidence to make anything close to a definitive statement to that effect quite yet.

Re: Ranking the Pac-12 after Week 6 - washingtonismoney - 10-11-2015

I think it's quite easy to judge Stanford as being better than the 59ers.

Stanford margin of victory: 16 ppg
59ers' margin of victory: 15.7 ppg

Stanford (conference) margin of victory: 22 ppg
59ers' (conference) margin of victory: 2 ppg

Stanford yards-per-play differential: 1.94
59ers' YPP differential: 1.07

Stanford SOS (Sagarin): 13
59ers SOS (Sagarin): 38

Now, Stanford has a pretty meh defense (it's giving up 5.66 yards per play in conference games so far), but nevertheless it's been dominating (most of) its games in a way the 59ers aren't. Could the 59ers win Big Game? Yes (see "meh defense"), but based on the evidence so far, you'd be exercising quite a bit of faith to pick that result.

Re: Ranking the Pac-12 after Week 6 - BostonCard - 10-12-2015

I don't know what Utah has to do to get some respect.  They have beaten two ranked teams that would be otherwise undefeated.  They crushed Oregon, which no longer means much, but every week their win over Michigan means more.  I get that they are not perfect, but frankly there is no team in the nation who is.  They have by far the most complete resume of any team in the conference, if not the country.

BC

Re: Ranking the Pac-12 after Week 6 - Mick - 10-12-2015

(10-12-2015, 04:23 PM)Boston Card link Wrote:I don't know what Utah has to do to get some respect. 


I agree.  They are getting some respect from the bettors.  They are 3 and 2 against the spread, and they've been within 1.5 points of the spread twice and within two points a third time.  They blew out Fresno State and Oregon, crushing the spread both times on the road.  They are favored by 7.5 over ASU.  There are some people ranking Utah #1, but they're typically getting a solid #4 ranking.  We'll see what happens in December.
http://newsok.com/college-football-rankings-utah-florida-stay-1-2/article/5452882

Re: Ranking the Pac-12 after Week 6 - BostonCard - 10-12-2015

They did get some respect from the Pac-12 blog on ESPN.

http://espn.go.com/blog/pac12/post/_/id/92863/pac-12-week-6-power-rankings-washington-schools-score-big-upsets

Their rankings:
1) Utah
2) Stanford
3) Cal
4) ASU
5) UCLA
6) Washington
7) WSU
8) USC
9) Arizona
10) Oregon (!)
11) Colorado
12) Oregon State

How the mighty have fallen.

BC

B

Re: Ranking the Pac-12 after Week 6 - cardcoug - 10-12-2015

(10-12-2015, 04:23 PM)Boston Card link Wrote:I don't know what Utah has to do to get some respect.  They have beaten two ranked teams that would be otherwise undefeated.  They crushed Oregon, which no longer means much, but every week their win over Michigan means more.  I get that they are not perfect, but frankly there is no team in the nation who is.  They have by far the most complete resume of any team in the conference, if not the country.

BC

I completely agree, except I think your (and everyone's new) take on Utah's win over Oregon is crazy. Sure, it isn't a road top-10 demolition for the ages, but they beat a conference team by 42 on the road. That is much more impressive than our wins over arizona or oregon st, maybe even USC, and those wins have all of us brimming with confidence and worrying about SOS for the playoffs.

Re: Ranking the Pac-12 after Week 6 - stupac2 - 10-12-2015

I mean, what's the goal? If you're just ranking based on resume, yeah Utah has to be #1. But if you're ranking based on how good you think the team is, there are plenty of reasons to put Utah lower. In the middle of the season which you're doing makes a brobdingnagian difference, but it mostly doesn't at the end of the year. Utah won't keep winning games if they're posting a negative ypp differential.

Re: Ranking the Pac-12 after Week 6 - CTcard - 10-12-2015

(10-12-2015, 04:23 PM)Boston Card link Wrote:I don't know what Utah has to do to get some respect. 

I don't know what you consider respect. Two of three posters who have ranked the Pac 12 teams ranked them first. Another ranked them second. And Mick claimed Stanford could beat them.

But if you want some lack of respect, I guess it's up to me.
I am not yet sold on Utah as the class of the Pac 12, though I certainly could see them winning the conference. There are a few issues.

First, everyone keeps talking about their rugged defense. In this very thread, winflop says, "but I also wonder if they've [Stanford] faced a defense as good as Utah's - or if they will the rest of the season."
Well, Utah's defense is ranked 67th in yds allowed per game (6th in conference), and 74th in yds/play (9th). Their calling cards last year were sacks and tackles for loss. Currently they are in a multiple tie for 47th in sacks/game (6th) and 109th in tackles for loss/game (tie 10th). This compares to last year when they were 1st (1st) and 6th (1st).
Their defense is not bad, but so far it's not as good as last year.

Another stat that is generally believed to be fairly predictive is yards gained differential - with per play useful for taking out pace of play. In the Pac 12 right now we have:
TeamOff yds/playDef yds/playDifferential
U$C7.45 5.042.41
Stanford6.724.781.94
UCLA6.114.781.33
UW5.594.441.15
Arizona6.705.591.11
c.a.l.6.625.551.07
Oregon6.715.840.87
ASU5.725.240.48
Colorado5.595.450.14
Utah5.575.63-0.06
OSU4.715.67-0.96

Observations:

1. It's really quite remakrable to be 5-0 and have a negative yds/play differential. In thinking about what other undefeated team might have such a stat, I thought of MSU - but no they are at +0.36; Florida - +1.20; Clemson - +1.47.
I think their special teams are good, but they don't really stand out in most categories (though they are #3 in the country in punt return yards/game).
They have done this primarily through turnover margin. They are #1 in the country and #1 in the conference by a mile at +2.0 per game (second is c.a.l. at +0.83/game).
Is that sustainable?

Well, that's it for Utah, further around the conference ...

2. If the players want to play for the $C interim coach Helton then they are still dangerous. It's clear they have players. 

3. I think UCLA is still formidable. Another team with lots of excellent players if a few holes here and there (mostly due to injuries).

4. Had we been playing against Anu Solomon, that UA win would look very impressive. Oh well.

5. I had thought OSU was looking promising, but they seem to be heading in the wrong direction.

6. Petersen at UW is interesting. He had some trouble taking over a team with some very good players. Now with a lot of those players gone, the team seems to be functioning better - though most of the guys are still Sarkisian recruits.

Re: Ranking the Pac-12 after Week 6 - washingtonismoney - 10-12-2015

Let's re-do CTCard's statistics in conference games only. (Obviously this runs into sample size issues, but worth a peek).

Team Off. YPP Def. YPP Differential
Stanford 7.51 5.66 1.85
Oregon 6.53 5.75 .78
SC 6.33 5.55 .78
UCLA 5.87 5.27 .6
59ers 5.87 5.33 .54
WSU 5.83 5.33 .5
Utah 6.39 5.98 .41
ASU 5.88 6.14 -.26
Arizona 5.89 6.27 -.38
UW 4.5 5.17 -.67
Colorado 5.16 6.76 -1.6
OSU 4.6 7.55 -2.95


Re: Ranking the Pac-12 after Week 6 - BostonCard - 10-12-2015

My comment was related to the comment by the OP, "D is overrated and O is underwhelming"

Well... I applaud you for your well reasoned post... but

Utah has beaten two teams who would otherwise be unbeaten, Cal and Michigan.  That counts for a lot.

Secondly, some of the yards per play differential is driven by run/pass choice.  Utah is outgaining its opponents by 4.87 to 4.22 on the ground.  In the air, they are being outgained 6.8 to 6.7 per play, but because the Utes run a larger proportion of their plays than opponents, when the stats are combined it doesn't look as favorable for Utah.  If you look at pass rating instead of ypp, then Utah looks better off (136 versus 119).

If you look at the advanced stats, Utah is 13th in S&P.  They are 23rd in offensive S&P and 24th in defensive S&P, and they have the 12th ranked strength of schedule (to be fair, S&P has Stanford [#10] and USC [#6] ranked ahead of them).  They are ranked #1 by ESPN's power rankings, #26 on offensive efficiency and #19 on defensive efficiency.  I haven't even talked about their turnover margin because I do believe turnovers are largely due to luck, but Utah has had a profound advantage in turnovers (tied for best in the country).

Third, Utah is ranked third in punting at 48 yards per punt (and 33rd in punt returns given up).  They are sixth in punt returns at 26 yards per return.  They are 23rd in kickoff returns.  The only portion of special teams where they are weak is in kickoffs and preventing kickoff returns.  Add to it their turnover margin and Utah has had a profound field position advantage that has made the "whole" greater than the sum of its parts.

My point is that conventional statistics (yards per play) underrate Utah's offensive and defensive, and exclude the contribution of special teams.  They may not be the best team in the country (and may prove not to be in the Pac-12), but they are clearly not the second worst team in the conference.

BC

Re: Ranking the Pac-12 after Week 6 - CTcard - 10-12-2015

(10-12-2015, 07:31 PM)Boston Card link Wrote:Utah has beaten two teams who would otherwise be unbeaten, Low APR U and Michigan.  That counts for a lot.

Well, of course there is an argument to be made for Utah, which is primarily just this. But, considering that they are now ranked #4 in th AP poll (with 16 first place votes, the second most), I didn't think that the pro-Utah arguments needed repeating.

The excercise for me was to try to figure out why when I watch Utah I don't feel they should be such a strong favorite to win the Pac 12. I think where they haven't impressed is mostly summed up in the yards/play numbers.

On the other hand, they seem to have a bit of 2012 Stanford in them, which I respect.  (Though that 2012 team, while generally not awe-inspiring, did end up with +0.80 in yds/play differential.)

Re: Ranking the Pac-12 after Week 6 - BostonCard - 10-12-2015

(10-12-2015, 07:57 PM)CTcard link Wrote:Well, of course there is an argument to be made for Utah, which is primarily just this. But, considering that they are now ranked #4 in th AP poll (with 16 first place votes, the second most), I didn't think that the pro-Utah arguments needed repeating.

The excercise for me was to try to figure out why when I watch Utah I don't feel they should be such a strong favorite to win the Pac 12. I think where they haven't impressed is mostly summed up in the yards/play numbers.

On the other hand, they seem to have a bit of 2012 Stanford in them, which I respect.  (Though that 2012 team, while generally not awe-inspiring, did end up with +0.80 in yds/play differential.)

There are three teams ranked ahead of Utah:

Ohio State:best win over 4-2 Indiana; other wins over 3-3 Virginia Tech, 3-3 NIU, 2-3 Western Michigan, 2-4 Hawaii, 2-4 Maryland.  Nor have any  of those wins been particularly impressive.

Baylor: best win over 4-2 Texas Tech; other wins over 3-3 Rice, 1-5 SMU, 0-5 Kansas, and 3-2 FCS Lamar.  They have been blowing out those opponents, but Utah's worst win (1-5 Fresno State) could probably go 3-2 against that schedule.

TCU: best win over 4-2 Texas Tech; other wins over 4-2 Minnesota, 3-2 Kansas State, 2-4 Texas, 1-5 SMU, and 1-5 FCS Stephen F. Austin.

It's worth noting that none of the three have victories over top-25 teams; Texas Tech is in the "others receiving votes" category.  Utah has two of them in 5 games.  The OP also put Stanford over Utah, and while I love the team as much as anyone, and think we have been playing really well, it is hard to ignore that Northwestern games, where we didn't just lose, we played poorly.  Our marquee win over USC looks like less of a trophy, our second best win (Arizona) was without their starting QB, and UCF (winless at 0-6) and OSU (2-3) are just bad teams.  I don't mean to pull a Teejers here, because I do think we have been playing well, but I would be hard pressed to say that we deserve a higher in-conference power ranking that Utah.

BC