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David Shaw's rooting interest vis-a-via Clemson? - Printable Version

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David Shaw's rooting interest vis-a-via Clemson? - OutsiderFan - 11-28-2015

It's been reported that David Shaw and Dabo Swinney have developed into good friends.  Do y'all think Shaw will be rooting for his buddy to win or lose the next two weeks? 

My guess is he's going to be rooting for Clemson unless at about 7:45 PT Stanford has more points than UDFG, in which case Shaw will turn into a gigantic North Carolina fan. 

The question is, if Oklahoma State and Stanford win tonight, does Shaw stop rooting for North Carolina and start rooting for Clemson again?  I mean would he rather potentially face his buddy Swinney in the playoff than say a Stoops, Saban, Ferenz, or Dantonio?




Re: David Shaw's rooting interest vis-a-via Clemson? - CowboyIndian - 11-28-2015

They have to play South Carolina first....like, today.

Re: David Shaw's rooting interest vis-a-via Clemson? - OutsiderFan - 12-01-2015

This question becomes a little more relevant now...

Does David Shaw root for his good friend Dabo to win this weekend, knowing if he does, his own team is more than likely locked out of the playoff?  Or does Shaw root for UNC knowing Clemson has to lose for his team to have a chance?

There are a couple dynamics here.  One is whether or not Shaw would root for or against a friend when the outcome can impact his own situation.  Two, is Shaw indifferent to the playoff, knowing it's a beauty contest he has no control over?  Given how inept Florida is on offense, hard to imagine Alabama losing, but would a Stanford-Clemson semi-final match-up be Shaw's ideal scenario?

Re: David Shaw's rooting interest vis-a-via Clemson? - donkey687 - 12-01-2015

I could argue that Stanford is better off with Clemson winning.  I think Florida upsetting Alabama is our only shot.  If NC beats Clemson, I am not sure that we have an argument for why we get in ahead of NC or Clemson.  Clemson has 2 big wins (ND and FSU) to our one and only has one loss. NC would have just knocked off the #1 team and only one loss from 3 months ago.  NC will be #8 tonight so them beating the #1 team versus us beating the #25 team could easily allow them to leapfrog us.


Re: David Shaw's rooting interest vis-a-via Clemson? - dabigv13 - 12-01-2015

If UNC jumps us, it's just evidence that the committee is using the same logic as the polls where it goes in order of numbers of losses with SOS only to differentiate with equal number of losses. The committee has been insistent that they take a holistic view. Any sort of comparison of our schedule to their schedule should put the UNC argument to rest.

Frankly I think this applies to Oklahoma as well, who lost to an execrable Texas team and has no good OOC wins. Still unclear why they are annointed.

Re: David Shaw's rooting interest vis-a-via Clemson? - stupac2 - 12-01-2015

(12-01-2015, 02:56 PM)dabigv link Wrote:Frankly I think this applies to Oklahoma as well, who lost to an execrable Texas team and has no good OOC wins. Still unclear why they are annointed.

Tennessee is actually a pretty good team. Not as good as ND but they'd probably be favored over Northwestern on a neutral field.

Re: David Shaw's rooting interest vis-a-via Clemson? - dabigv13 - 12-01-2015

I dunno, 5-3 in the SEC East doesn't really make for that formidable of an opponent. Especially when it takes double overtime.

Re: David Shaw's rooting interest vis-a-via Clemson? - larkinforever - 12-01-2015

Out of curiosity took a quick look at Tennessee's schedule:

SEC wins against Kentucky (2-6 SEC), Vandy (2-6), Missouri (1-7), South Carolina (1-7) and Georgia (5-3)
SEC losses against Florida and both division crossover games (Alabama and Arkansas)

OOC wins against non-Power 5 Bowling Green and North Texas (and FCS Western Carolina)
OOC loss to Oklahoma

When you break down their 8-4 (5-3) record, it doesn't look too impressive. Not to be overly harsh, but I see about 1 quality win (Georgia)...

Re: David Shaw's rooting interest vis-a-via Clemson? - stupac2 - 12-01-2015

(12-01-2015, 03:24 PM)larkinforever link Wrote:Out of curiosity took a quick look at Tennessee's schedule:

SEC wins against Kentucky (2-6 SEC), Vandy (2-6), Missouri (1-7), South Carolina (1-7) and Georgia (5-3)
SEC losses against Florida and both division crossover games (Alabama and Arkansas)

OOC wins against non-Power 5 Bowling Green and North Texas (and FCS Western Carolina)
OOC loss to Oklahoma

When you break down their 8-4 (5-3) record, it doesn't look too impressive. Not to be overly harsh, but I see about 1 quality win (Georgia)...

They also played Oklahoma and Alabama close. Sometimes record isn't everything, and per most advanced stats they're in the top 25 (F+ has them at 20). They're not elite, but they're not garbage.

Re: David Shaw's rooting interest vis-a-via Clemson? - OutsiderFan - 12-01-2015

Miami is 8-4.  That is all you need to know about how misleading records are.  If you don't look at who the teams actually played, it's a meaningless exercise.  Again, the CFP committee has all kinds of time to look at these details.  Idiots like Booger McFarland myopically look at number of losses without any context to the quality of teams on the schedule.

Re: David Shaw's rooting interest vis-a-via Clemson? - Leftcoast - 12-01-2015

It's very hard to see North Carolina jumping a Pac 12 champion Stanford even with a win over Clemson in their conference title game. 

The committee is preaching strength of schedule as a differentiator and North Carolina played two BCS schools and plays in a conference loaded with patsies.  Also, Carolina is behind Stanford in the penultimate poll and the ACC is generally regarded as the weakest of the power 5 conferences.

I guess they could score style points with an impressive win but Stanford has a very good chance of slipping into the playoffs if Clemson falls.

Now, it's an open question for me how much I'd prefer a playoff game (vs Oklahoma?) vs a Jan 1 date in Pasadena with Ohio State.  The playoff game gets the slight edge intellectually but emotionally it's close.  The Rose Bowl is still the gold standard of the post season to this Stanford fan.

Re: David Shaw's rooting interest vis-a-via Clemson? - OutsiderFan - 12-01-2015

Jeff Long once again made clear that UNC is not going to be ranked higher than Stanford if both teams win this weekend.  He called out the two FCS teams UNC played and the loss to "one of the worst teams in the SEC."  Now even Herbstriet is saying a Pac-12 champion Stanford's resume will be stronger than UNC's even if they beat Clemson.


Re: David Shaw's rooting interest vis-a-via Clemson? - ThePassionOfTheChryst - 12-01-2015

(12-01-2015, 05:53 PM)leftcoast link Wrote:It's very hard to see North Carolina jumping a Pac 12 champion Stanford even with a win over Clemson in their conference title game. 

The committee is preaching strength of schedule as a differentiator and North Carolina played two BCS schools and plays in a conference loaded with patsies.  Also, Carolina is behind Stanford in the penultimate poll and the ACC is generally regarded as the weakest of the power 5 conferences.

I guess they could score style points with an impressive win but Stanford has a very good chance of slipping into the playoffs if Clemson falls.

Now, it's an open question for me how much I'd prefer a playoff game (vs Oklahoma?) vs a Jan 1 date in Pasadena with Ohio State.  The playoff game gets the slight edge intellectually but emotionally it's close.  The Rose Bowl is still the gold standard of the post season to this Stanford fan.

You would rather not play for a national title than play for one?  To each their own I suppose.

But if we handle business this Saturday, and UNC knocks off Clemson -- I'd bet we sneak in.

Re: David Shaw's rooting interest vis-a-via Clemson? - Leftcoast - 12-01-2015

Oh, I'd choose the playoffs but a potential Rose Bowl match-up against Ohio State is a very, very good consolation prize. 

Plus, think of all those newly cleaned rain gutters in the East Bay!  **


** Reference to an infamous UCB fan quote about the attractive DIY options open to him during Stanford's Rose Bowl trip in 1999.

Re: David Shaw's rooting interest vis-a-via Clemson? - jacketree - 12-01-2015

Honestly if he is actively rooting for or against Clemson on Saturday, we are in trouble because the games are 15 minutes apart in starting time. (Stanford is 4:45 PST; Clemson is 5:00 PST).

Saturday is pretty easy. Win.  No Rose Bowl or National Semi Final without a win. Learned long ago not to watch football games hoping to get a certain opponent. Always seems to backfire, although I'm not sure that is woofing related at all.



Re: David Shaw's rooting interest vis-a-via Clemson? - CornFed - 12-01-2015

Is it OK to share nightmares?  I'm not really this negative, but if you think the probability of UNC beating Clemson is relatively small, think of the combined probability of such an upset occurring as well as a Cardinal loss in the Conference Championship.  Such an outcome and its related sense of lost opportunity would leave me mortally wounded.  But I feel better having unburdened myself onto all of you.  Sorry for the disturbance in the Force.

Any possibility that the Committee will take into account UNC's rampant academic fraud in choosing between them and us if that should be the decision?  Perhaps we can mount a secret campaign to dramatically increase public awareness about the pervasive cheating that UNC has been perpetrating.  Just a thought.

Re: David Shaw's rooting interest vis-a-via Clemson? - jacketree - 12-01-2015

I had nightmares about snow tires and Conoco signs when I was a young child.....


Wait, that isn't what you are going for is it?  My Saturday nightmare only involves one thing:  Southern California taking the field in glorious January 1 Pasadena sunshine with no other games on TV.

Re: David Shaw's rooting interest vis-a-via Clemson? - BostonCard - 12-01-2015

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/671876494143156225

They are using FPI to predict odds of winning, and FPI has, for whatever reason, always loved USC, so it's not surprising we are given a 48% chance of winning the conference championship.  Vegas has us as 4.5 point favorites, which has historically corresponded to a ~63% chance of victory.

FPI gives Alabama a 74% chance of winning the SEC title, which I think is a bit low and likely doesn't reflect Florida's performance of late, especially on offense, of late.  I'd give Alabama a 90% chance of winning.  The point spread, 9, more or less matches FPI, which is about an 74% chance of victory.  Alabama has a small but non-zero chance of making the playoff with a loss, at least per 538.

Clemson has a 57% chance of winning the ACC per FPI, but as 6.5 pt favorites they should win 68% of the time.  Going with probabilities derived from Vegas...

Probability of Stanford winning =  63%
Probability of either Alabama or Clemson losing = 49%

Probability of Stanford winning and a team ahead losing = 31%

That doesn't factor in the probability of the above happening and either a 1-loss non-champion Ohio State, a 1-loss ACC champion North Carolina getting in ahead of Stanford.

BC

Re: David Shaw's rooting interest vis-a-via Clemson? - stupac2 - 12-01-2015

(12-01-2015, 07:42 PM)Boston Card link Wrote:That doesn't factor in the probability of the above happening and either a 1-loss non-champion Ohio State, a 1-loss ACC champion North Carolina getting in ahead of Stanford.

I think the odds of that are very low. I think it's reasonable to say that the committee ignores FCS games. Just remove them from the record. So we'd have two more wins than UNC, a much harder schedule, and while we have two losses they're to much better teams. OSU would have the same number of wins, and their loss is a good one, but they didn't win their conference, which matters.

If we win really ugly I could see it, but otherwise I really doubt either of those teams pass us if we win.

Re: David Shaw's rooting interest vis-a-via Clemson? - jacketree - 12-01-2015

Florida and Stanford win, we're in.

Better chance with Clemson losing than winning, but I just cannot root for UNC, so go Gators.....and Holes. (I just threw up in my mouth a little.)