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WBB: Stanford 80 Colorado 49 - 81alum - 02-19-2016

Overview

We shrugged off a slow first quarter and shot 49% for the game, including 7/14 from three, to bury Colorado's overmatched defense.

Preliminary:

I'd be tempted to say that every game is a "must win" for us, but at this stage it would simply be hyperbole.  Probably the main thing we are fighting for now is a chance to host the first two rounds of the NCAAs--meaning we need a four seed which is equivalent to a 16 ranking--probably higher than that to be on the safe side.  We are presently at 15 in both polls and a surprising 11 in Sagarin (with OSU at 6, UCLA at 10, and ASU inexplicably at 14.)    I think to be sure of our host status we MUST beat Colorado and Utah on the road this weekend, Oregon at home next weekend, and it would help a great deal to beat Oregon State at home next weekend too.  If we lose to OSU next weekend, then I think we will have to win a couple of Pac 12 tournament games including one win over ASU, OSU, or UCLA to give the committee a reason to let us host.  But as Tara has pointed out, we need to continue to improve over the next four games just because it will prove that we have a chance to win the Pac 12 tournament, and go deep into the NCAAs.

The biggest challenge?  Altitude and simply being on the road--where our worst collapses have occurred this year.  I worry about Utah on Sunday the most, but there were long stretches of our prior win over Colorado where our play was not particularly dominant. 

Play of the Game:

In the first half we started cold and scratched our way to a 15-13 lead, after falling behind for much of the period.  Two treys by Lili--each of which was a bit short, hit all iron, and bounced through--kept us close.  In the second quarter the offense looked much better--another 20+ point quarter--except the 8 silly turnovers on lazy perimeter passes--which led to 16 Colorado points--kept Colorado in the game.  Tara at halftime commented that Lili and Bird were doing a good job but that there were other players she did not recognize in their uniforms.  Kaylee and Kailee each got into foul trouble, giving Alanna and Britt extensive time in the game.  Brittany did well on offense with 3/4, but also contributed 2 turnovers.  We know what Tara probably told the team in halftime--to feed McCall in the paint, where she can continue to score and hit free throws (she is 5/6 free throws thus far.)  McCall is coming on strong in the last few games and is beginning to hit jump shots and bank shots to go with her layups.

The second half went all our way.  Particularly heartwarming was the performance of McPhee, who had a couple of gorgeous reverse layups and became our leading scorer for the game on 6/7 shooting.  Alanna Smith played extensively and was the beneficiary of a great Marta assist on a fast break for a layup-and-1.  As a team we cut down the turnovers from 16 to 5 and that pretty well snuffed out any Colorado hope.  By the end of the game the scout team was playing and it was playing rather well, with Coffee getting a basket.

Performances:

McPhee scored 16 and was offensively gifted, adding 7 rebounds and cutting her second half turnovers to 0.  She had a couple of blocks and a couple of assists and 0 personal fouls.  I'm not sure what more she could have done--Tara just has to find a way to get her and Karlie into the game at the same time.  In any case, this was perhaps her best all-around performance of the year.

Lili had 15 points, but not particularly efficiently.  Still, she is improving over her icy stretch.  She was 5/13 and 3/3 from the line.  Her 4 assists and 4 steals certainly helped too.

Kaylee had a very solid game.  She started, got into a bit of foul trouble, but wound up with 12 efficient points on 4/6 shooting, 4/4 from the line.  Add to that 7 rebounds, 2 assists, 3 steals, and a whopping four blocks and you can see she was a critical contributor in many parts of the game.

Erica had 13 points on 4/10 shooting, and like just about everybody else, 7 rebounds!  At the end of the first half I thought she was slated for a monster second half, but not so much--possibly because we got a large lead and she wasn't really needed.

Karlie with 9 points and 2/5 three point shooting was her normal self.  Bri shot well though not often, with 5 points on 2/3 shooting.  Hopefully her glacial slump is over.  Marta had 4 assists and 2 turnovers.  Then there was Kailee, with a nearly empty stat line and three fouls.  I think Kailee is turning into the Taylor Greenfield of the team--clearly great talent but afraid to shoot until one day she may just decide to break out.  That day was not today.

The team stats show how dominant we were this game.  17 assists to their 8, shooting 49% to their 33%, and even steals were nearly even by the end of the game. 

Conclusion:

Each remaining game gets harder.  Utah is a better team than Colorado and is having a better season with better crowds.  So the Sunday game will not be easy.  Then home for a rapidly improving Kelly Graves' Oregon and then league leader Oregon State.  Let's hope that the signs we saw tonight--that McPhee could become a major contributor, that Lili and Bri are scoring again--continue for the rest of the season.

Re: WBB: Stanford @ Colorado, 7pm - BobK - 02-19-2016

Our RPI is 8, which is very important. 

Colorado on the road has always been a tough game for us.  I know they are in last place, but worrisome. 

Re: WBB: Stanford @ Colorado, 7pm - FarmFan - 02-19-2016

Is this game televised...or is there a link to watch?

Re: WBB: Stanford @ Colorado, 7pm - BobK - 02-19-2016

On the pac 12 channel. 

Re: WBB: Stanford @ Colorado, 7pm - BobK - 02-19-2016

Well we missed 7-8 lay ups and tied.  After 1

Re: WBB: Stanford @ Colorado, 7pm - BobK - 02-19-2016

Now making shots so let's try 11 turnovers  by us.  Up 37-29 at the half

Re: WBB: Stanford 80 Colorado 49 - chimera - 02-19-2016

Too many turnovers but that was a nice road blow-out, which to me is progress.  Never let off the gas.  CO is not very good but any road win where you just cruise and play everyone is a great win in my mind.  Gotta cut out the silly passes though.

Re: WBB: Stanford 80 Colorado 49 - TheFarm07 - 02-19-2016

(02-19-2016, 11:58 AM)81alum link Wrote:Colorado shot 64% of their treys, though, so perimeter defense may be a concern going forward.

81alum, are you looking at the right stat sheet? According to the box score, Colorado was 2/15 from 3-pt range.

With Kaylee's solid night and Kailee's struggles, one wonders why Tara played her so much last Sunday against AZ State. Kaylee is a better rebounder and is more advanced offensively than Kailee.

It was good to see McPhee put up another good game. I hope Tara will go with our favored lineup more often so that Karlie and McPhee are on the floor at the same time, but I think she prefers the more traditional Bri/Marta-Lili-Karlie/McPhee-Kaylee/Kailee-McCall lineup.

Re: WBB: Stanford 80 Colorado 49 - 81alum - 02-19-2016

(02-19-2016, 11:43 PM)TheFarm07 link Wrote:[quote author=81alum link=topic=14625.msg156832#msg156832 date=1455908327]
Colorado shot 64% of their treys, though, so perimeter defense may be a concern going forward.

81alum, are you looking at the right stat sheet? According to the box score, Colorado was 2/15 from 3-pt range.

With Kaylee's solid night and Kailee's struggles, one wonders why Tara played her so much last Sunday against AZ State. Kaylee is a better rebounder and is more advanced offensively than Kailee.

It was good to see McPhee put up another good game. I hope Tara will go with our favored lineup more often so that Karlie and McPhee are on the floor at the same time, but I think she prefers the more traditional Bri/Marta-Lili-Karlie/McPhee-Kaylee/Kailee-McCall lineup.
[/quote]

Ack!  I was looking at free throws!  Thanks for the catch, I will correct.

Re: WBB: Stanford 80 Colorado 49 - 81alum - 02-19-2016

If the Pac 12 tournament were seeded today:

Stanford seeded 4: First round bye
Second round vs. the winner of Washington(5) and Colorado (12)
Semis vs likely Oregon State (1)
Finals vs likely Arizona State (2)

We could pass UCLA and finish 3rd.  We have to play Oregon State and UCLA has to play Oregon State as well as Arizona State.  UCLA beat Oregon tonight, though, and our home game against Oregon could be a tough game.  If we win out we will probably finish 3rd.  If we lose one game, we could wind up tied with UCLA which will be seeded higher because they beat us.  If we wind up 3rd, this is the likely schedule:

Stanford seeded 3: First round bye
Second round vs. the winner of Oregon(6) and Arizona(11)
Semis vs likely Oregon State (2)
Finals vs likely Arizona State (1)

You know, I'd just as soon play Washington as Oregon, except that the game will be in Seattle.  But the order of those two teams  could easily change.  So it is hard to know whether we would want to be seeded 3rd or 4th.  From this I conclude that we are playing primarily for improvement and for NCAA seedings right now. 

The Pac 12 tournament will be highly competitive.  In a tournament like that endurance will be critical--which means I'd rather play Oregon State to Arizona State.

Re: WBB: Stanford 80 Colorado 49 - 81alum - 02-20-2016

If OSU, ASU, UCLA, and we all win out except when we are playing each other, it could set up some interesting Pac 12 scenarios.

Let's say we beat OSU next weekend.  That could knock OSU down to 2nd place and raise us up to 3rd place, in which case we would be on track to meet again in the Semis.

Let's say we lose to OSU next weekend.  That will help keep OSU above ASU in 1st place and guarantee we won't climb above 4th, again putting us on track to play OSU in the semis.

Lots can happen, such as OSU or ourselves losing in our first games in the Pac 12 tournament.  But all the signs point to us playing OSU two more times this season and not ASU again unless we and they both make it to the Pac 12 tournament final. 

Re: WBB: Stanford 80 Colorado 49 - TheFarm07 - 02-20-2016

We'll see how the Pac-12 tourney goes, but first things first. We have Utah and then the Oregon schools at home. Through all our struggles, I think we are better (probably not much better) but still better than we were a few months ago. We had a very winnable game against AZ State and we blew out Arizona and Colorado by bigger margins than when we first faced them. Individually, McPhee and Kaylee are playing better and hopefully Bri is slowly breaking out of her slump.

I'm still concerned about our numerous turnovers, a lot of them off unforced errors and our habit of stagnating on offense or at least going through stretches where we can't make a field goal even if the hoop was 20 feet wide. Lili can be hit or miss too much for my liking and Karlie needs to be more involved in our offense. She is such a great shooter that we need to get her more looks at the ball.  We are still largely point-deficient at the point guard position as well.

I am just looking at a gradual, but constant improvement that can help us not only through the 3 remaining regular season games, the conference tournament and the NCAA tournament, but into next year, where it should be our year to make significant noise and take back our regular season crown and perhaps even grab a #3 seed or better in the Big Dance.

All of our graduation losses are from the scout team and we pick up 4 freshmen with 3 of them that look like they could make contributions their rookie season. We won't have any excuses of lack of experience. McCall, Kailee, Karlie and Bri will be seniors. McPhee and Kaylee are going to be juniors and Marta and Alanna will have a season under their belt.

Re: WBB: Stanford 80 Colorado 49 - 81alum - 02-20-2016

(02-20-2016, 05:12 PM)TheFarm07 link Wrote:We'll see how the Pac-12 tourney goes, but first things first. We have Utah and then the Oregon schools at home. Through all our struggles, I think we are better (probably not much better) but still better than we were a few months ago. We had a very winnable game against AZ State and we blew out Arizona and Colorado by bigger margins than when we first faced them. Individually, McPhee and Kaylee are playing better and hopefully Bri is slowly breaking out of her slump.

I'm still concerned about our numerous turnovers, a lot of them off unforced errors and our habit of stagnating on offense or at least going through stretches where we can't make a field goal even if the hoop was 20 feet wide. Lili can be hit or miss too much for my liking and Karlie needs to be more involved in our offense. She is such a great shooter that we need to get her more looks at the ball.  We are still largely point-deficient at the point guard position as well.

I am just looking at a gradual, but constant improvement that can help us not only through the 3 remaining regular season games, the conference tournament and the NCAA tournament, but into next year, where it should be our year to make significant noise and take back our regular season crown and perhaps even grab a #3 seed or better in the Big Dance.

All of our graduation losses are from the scout team and we pick up 4 freshmen with 3 of them that look like they could make contributions their rookie season. We won't have any excuses of lack of experience. McCall, Kailee, Karlie and Bri will be seniors. McPhee and Kaylee are going to be juniors and Marta and Alanna will have a season under their belt.
I agree with just about everything you said.  To add, next year it will be interesting to see if Anna Wilson can push Marta to start at point guard. 

Re: WBB: Stanford 80 Colorado 49 - triangle2 - 02-22-2016

Am I the only one who thinks that Marta has some Mitch Johnson characteristics? Nice handle, good passer, very good IQ, but limited athleticism and no shot (yet...). I do think that she's well ahead of the curve on the IQ.

Re: WBB: Stanford 80 Colorado 49 - 81alum - 02-22-2016

(02-22-2016, 07:18 PM)triangle2 link Wrote:Am I the only one who thinks that Marta has some Mitch Johnson characteristics? Nice handle, good passer, very good IQ, but limited athleticism and no shot (yet...). I do think that she's well ahead of the curve on the IQ.
I think Marta is very athletic--fluid and self-assured with the ball, fearless even.  And her drives and layups can look absolutely splendid at times.  Give her a 12-15 foot jump shot that she can drain regularly and I will be happy for the next three years.