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Looking ahead to Week 3 games - ColoradoTree - 09-12-2016

We're back to the quality of the opening weekend after a one-week vacation:

Pac-12 games

Friday, September 16

Arizona State (-18) @ UTSA

Saturday, September 17

Obviously, SC @ #7 Stanford (-8.5)

Idaho @ Washington State (-25.5)
Colorado @ #4 Michigan (-20.5)
#22 Oregon @ Nebraska (-2.5). 
Idaho State @ Oregon State (no line yet)
Portland State @ #8 Washington (no line yet)
UCLA (-3.5) @ BYU
Utah (-12.5) @ San Jose State.
#11 Texas (-8) @ C.al. 
Hawaii @ Arizona (no line yet). 

In sum, one conference game (ours), three games against Power 5 teams (we're the underdog in all three, though I expect Oregon to pull off the win), and one game against a sorta-P5 team (BYU).  If Stanford, Washington, and Oregon all win, then the takeaway from the weekend is that the Pac-12 North remains dominant over the South, even if the conference overall doesn't do great.  Utah is currently the last team out of the AP poll, so they should get ranked with a solid win.  But for our conference's sake (and for the sake of the Big 12's continuing failure), you should--if humanly possible--try and root for C.al to somehow beat Texas.  It's highly unlikely, but stranger things have happened (like, uh, C.al beating Texas last year in Austin).  I know Colorado is probably going to lose big, but I'm hoping they make a game of it.  But overall, 8-2 in non-conference games this week should be doable. 

Other Top 25 games worth watching

Thursday, September 15

#6 Houston (-7) @ Cincinnati

Friday, September 16

#21 Baylor (-30) @ Rice.  A preview of our new bitter rivalry opponent. ;-)

Saturday, September 17

#2 Florida State (-2.5) @ #10 Louisville.  I know Louisville will probably jump us in the rankings if it beats FSU, but I'll stick to my standard rule of "root for the teams ahead of us to lose." 
#1 Alabama (-9.5) @ #19 Ole Miss. Same.  If you want to see Alabama lose, this is one of the likeliest spots all season. 
#17 Texas A&M @ Auburn (-3.5)  I guess I want A&M to win to make UCLA's loss look better, but that's as much brainpower as I'll spend on this one. 
#12 Michigan State @ #18 N.D. (-7.5).  The Irish, of course. Makes our schedule look better while making the Big Ten look slightly worse.
#16 Georgia (-7) @ Mizzou.  Mizzou?  Just for the sake of SEC chaos.
#3 Ohio State (-2) @ #14 Oklahoma.  Arguments to be made on both sides of this one, but Ohio State is currently ranked ahead of us and Oklahoma won't jump us with a win, so Oklahoma it is. 

Non-Conference Opponent Watch

Florida Atlantic (1-1) @ Kansas State (0-1) (-22.5).  FAU narrowly beat Southern Illinois before losing to now-#25 Miami 38-10.  Here's hoping for a nice, dominant home win over the Owls for the Wildcats (en route to a Big 12 title).
 
N.D. (1-1): See above.  Crushed Nevada after losing that 2OT thriller to Texas in Austin. 

Rice (0-2): See above.  Rice has road losses to Western Kentucky and Army, and neither game was close.  If Stanford wins the North, this game is looking like a great opportunity to give some banged-up guys some rest before the Pac-12 title game.  If Stanford doesn't win the North, then it'll be like bowl practice is starting a week early.  Either that or we try and get Christian like 500 yards for consideration for a certain Trophy. 


Re: Looking ahead to Week 3 games - OutsiderFan - 09-12-2016

Usually you can count on the best games being 3:30pm ET and later.  Not this weekend, as Florida State is at Louisville at noon ET on Saturday.  Coupled with Alabama @ Ole Miss and Colorado @ Michigan at 3:30pm ET, which now has me intrigued, and the incredible prime time slate, topped off by Texas at UCB, it's a weekend for which the term "football widow" was coined.  It is a 14+ hour gauntlet of big and/or interesting games only the junkiest of college football junkies can handle.  Wish me luck...

BUT, why wait until Saturday?  The most intriguing, under the radar game, IMO, is Houston at Cincinnati on Thursday night at 8pm ET.  Do not sleep on the Bearcats.  I watched a bit of them pummel Purdue this weekend.  They honestly looked physically similar to Louisville.  This is the "next year we will be in the Big 12" game if Bob Bowlsby knows what he is doing, and I think he does.  Anyway, I would not be surprised to see Cincinnati pull the upset over Houston (-7).


Re: Looking ahead to Week 3 games - ColoradoTree - 09-12-2016

Yep, I'll be rooting for the Bearcats in that game, too.  Could be a preview of a future Big 12 matchup, as those two seem to be among the favorites. 

And Louisville-FSU will be a fun one.  I'm hoping Louisville wins that one, before losing @ Clemson on 10/1, with Clemson losing @ FSU on 10/29, among other losses.  Basically, as per usual, I am rooting for the round robin of death, where each possible contender loses to a different possible contender.  Let chaos rule, except for an unblemished Stanford.

And yeah, it'll be a great run of games.  In order to guarantee uninterrupted Stanford-SC watching, I'll have to parent for most of the day, so I won't be able to spend all day watching the other games.  But if Stanford-SC goes well, I may watch some of the Pac-12 After Dark round of games (4 games, UCLA-BYU, Utah-SJSU, Texas-C.al, and Hawaii-Arizona, all have kickoffs after 7pm Pacific). 



Re: Looking ahead to Week 3 games - CTcard - 09-12-2016

A few interesting games to comment upon.

(09-12-2016, 12:57 PM)ColoradoTree link Wrote:Colorado @ #4 Michigan (-20.5)
I know Colorado is probably going to lose big, but I'm hoping they make a game of it. 

Most likely they will lose big, but I am interested to see what happens here.

Here is what both teams have done so far this year.
Colorado
    vs. Col. State    44-7,  yards 578-225, TOs 2-4
    vs. Idaho State  56-7,  yards 597-96, TOs 1-1
Michigan
    vs. Hawaii          63-3,  yards 512-232, TOs 1-2
    vs. UCF              51-14, yards 447-331, TOs 0-2

So, Colorado's patsies were ... patsier. But Michigan experienced something that more closely resembled football games, and had to rely a little more on TOs and other benficial bounces for their destructions. And remember Hawaii was flying straight in from Australia.

I still think Colorado gets killed, but the game should reveal if there was anything real behind their two big blowouts to start the season.

Quote:#21 Baylor (-30) @ Rice.  A preview of our new bitter rivalry opponent. ;-)

It would have been MUCH more helpful if the Rice-bye came some other time than the very final weekend. Well, hopefully we'll use the rest to get ready for the conference championship game.

Rice so far this season.
    @ W. Kentucky  14-46
    @ Army            14-31


Quote:#12 Michigan State @ #18 N.D. (-7.5). 
Curious to see the team ranked 6 spots lower favored by more than a TD.
Clearly Vegas doesn't believe the polls right now. Heck, the pollsters probably don't believe the polls right now.

MSU so far,
    vs. Furman  28-13
Bonus points if you know where Furman is or what their mascot is.

Quote:#3 Ohio State (-2) @ #14 Oklahoma.  Arguments to be made on both sides of this one, but Ohio State is currently ranked ahead of us and Oklahoma won't jump us with a win, so Oklahoma it is.
Another game with at least some interest.
Oklahoma was in the playoff last year and returns lots of players.
Ohio State did not make the playoff last year and returns almost nobody other than their QB JT Barrett.
Yet, everybody seems to expect tOSU to win this. Me too.



Re: Looking ahead to Week 3 games - fullmetal - 09-12-2016

I think Stoops is going to have his lunch handed to him by Meyer, but I hope OU causes some rankings chaos...

Re: Looking ahead to Week 3 games - CowboyIndian - 09-13-2016

Furman Paladins...you know, like Stanford man Richard Boone.

Re: Looking ahead to Week 3 games - CTcard - 09-13-2016

(09-13-2016, 07:36 AM)CowboyIndian link Wrote:Furman Paladins...you know, like Stanford man Richard Boone.

I had to look that up.
Nice.

Re: Looking ahead to Week 3 games - CowboyIndian - 09-13-2016

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Re: Looking ahead to Week 3 games - Papa John - 09-13-2016

It seems only fair that we also cheer on Kansas State, who has a home game against the FAU Owls at 11:30 PT on FSN.

Re: Looking ahead to Week 3 games - ColoradoTree - 09-13-2016

(09-13-2016, 12:11 PM)Papa John link Wrote:It seems only fair that we also cheer on Kansas State, who has a home game against the FAU Owls at 11:30 PT on FSN.

Oh, no question.  I just added that to my post in response to your suggestion.  All past/future opponents' games will be on there henceforth.

Re: Looking ahead to Week 3 games - ColoradoTree - 09-13-2016

Oh, and for those that care, ESPN's College Gameday will be at the Florida State-Louisville game, which as the first top 10 matchup of the year is a pretty obvious choice.  (The other option would have been Oklahoma-Ohio State, and had Oklahoma not lost to Houston, it would be a Top 5 matchup and probably would have gotten Gameday in Norman.)

Re: Looking ahead to Week 3 games - washingtonismoney - 09-15-2016

Close, tough game between Houston and Cincy right now. Cincy up 16-12 early in fourth. Houston doesn't look quite as good as against Oklahoma (obviously); I wonder whether Herman's coaching/Houston being up for the game allowed them to rise above their "real" level.

Re: Looking ahead to Week 3 games - stupac2 - 09-15-2016

(09-15-2016, 07:22 PM)washingtonismoney link Wrote:Close, tough game between Houston and Cincy right now. Cincy up 16-12 early in fourth. Houston doesn't look quite as good as against Oklahoma (obviously); I wonder whether Herman's coaching/Houston being up for the game allowed them to rise above their "real" level.

Alternatively: Oklahoma's not very good.

Also it looks like Houston is finally starting to pull away, though I think Tuberville has run an idiotic game so far and Cinci has really failed to take advantage of the breaks they've been given.

Re: Looking ahead to Week 3 games - HisKneeWasDown - 09-15-2016

Quote:you should--if humanly possible--try and root for C.al to somehow beat Texas. 

Rule of thumb: you want the teams you play to win, and the teams you don't to lose.

Re: Looking ahead to Week 3 games - BostonCard - 09-15-2016

(09-15-2016, 07:38 PM)stupac2 link Wrote:[quote author=washingtonismoney link=topic=15645.msg171230#msg171230 date=1473992573]
Close, tough game between Houston and Cincy right now. Cincy up 16-12 early in fourth. Houston doesn't look quite as good as against Oklahoma (obviously); I wonder whether Herman's coaching/Houston being up for the game allowed them to rise above their "real" level.

Alternatively: Oklahoma's not very good.

Also it looks like Houston is finally starting to pull away, though I think Tuberville has run an idiotic game so far and Cinci has really failed to take advantage of the breaks they've been given.
[/quote]

Yeah, Cincinati was actually leading 16-12, and then th bottom fell out.  Houston scored 28 consecutive points in the fourth quarter to win easily.  It didn't help that after Houston scored to go up 19-16, Cincinati threw three straight interceptions, two of them pick-sixes.

BC

Re: Looking ahead to Week 3 games - OutsiderFan - 09-16-2016

To me, the Cincinnati game turned on the - what I thought was a dumb decision to go for 2 by Tuberville.  Cincy had just scored the go-ahead TD, and was up 16-12.  Making it 18-12 means they need 2 FGs to tie, instead of 2 FGs to take the lead with a 17-12 score, but 18-12 still allows you to be beaten by a TD.  The real issue was that if Houston scored a TD and xp, Cincy could only tie with a FG, and you want avoid OT with the better team at all cost. 

Missing the 2 pts kind of killed the momentum for Cincy.  Houston did score a TD and XP to take a it 19-16 lead.  And it did seem Cincy was pressing after that happened.  If only down by 2 they might have played more relaxed.  Regardless, I maintain it's really foolish to go for two early in the 4th quarter, unless you are way behind, because there are so many more possessions left, and the score can get away from you if the other team scores.  If its the final possession of the game, then yes, go for 2, but losing games because of missed XPs should be avoided at all cost, IMO.

Re: Looking ahead to Week 3 games - oman - 09-16-2016

I hope to God Texas continues to hurt our strength of schedule.



Re: Looking ahead to Week 3 games - stupac2 - 09-16-2016

(09-16-2016, 06:27 AM)OutsiderFan link Wrote:To me, the Cincinnati game turned on the - what I thought was a dumb decision to go for 2 by Tuberville.  Cincy had just scored the go-ahead TD, and was up 16-12.  Making it 18-12 means they need 2 FGs to tie, instead of 2 FGs to take the lead with a 17-12 score, but 18-12 still allows you to be beaten by a TD.  The real issue was that if Houston scored a TD and xp, Cincy could only tie with a FG, and you want avoid OT with the better team at all cost. 

Missing the 2 pts kind of killed the momentum for Cincy.  Houston did score a TD and XP to take a it 19-16 lead.  And it did seem Cincy was pressing after that happened.  If only down by 2 they might have played more relaxed.  Regardless, I maintain it's really foolish to go for two early in the 4th quarter, unless you are way behind, because there are so many more possessions left, and the score can get away from you if the other team scores.  If its the final possession of the game, then yes, go for 2, but losing games because of missed XPs should be avoided at all cost, IMO.

I thought it died when they got 0 points off of two turnovers in the red zone (they somehow managed to score off of the INT in their end zone, not sure why marching 80 yards down the field was easier than 20, but whatever). The big thing, to me, was that Tuberville just called an idiotic game. It seemed to all be runs up the middle and long passes to the sideline, and his QB just didn't have the arm for the latter. Houston was clearly trying to stuff the run, so why not use play action to clear out the middle of the field and take some short dump-offs? I don't remember a single pass attempt 5-10 yards down the middle of the field. Other than that one 80-yard drive Cinci did essentially nothing on offense, it was really horrible.

But I'm not worried about Houston, they're going to drop a game somewhere. That QB of theirs is electric, but if he's running it 20 times a game he's going to die, and if he doesn't their offense is garbage. When he gets seriously injured (and he already has minor injuries three games in) they're going to get a lot worse.

Re: Looking ahead to Week 3 games - fullmetal - 09-16-2016

(09-16-2016, 06:43 AM)oman link Wrote:I hope to God Texas continues to hurt our strength of schedule.

Surely Texas is a more formidable opponent than SDSU!

Re: Looking ahead to Week 3 games - washingtonismoney - 09-17-2016

Back to thinking, "hm, maybe Rutgers is completely awful and Washington's blowout is not at all meaningful":

https://twitter.com/MattSugam/status/777184889296785410