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WBB: Projecting when Tara gets her 1000th win - Printable Version

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WBB: Projecting when Tara gets her 1000th win - 81alum - 01-10-2017

Sometime this season, barring a complete meltdown, Tara will collect her 1000th career win, putting her in the company only of Coach K and Pat Summit.  She is at 993.  Here are the upcoming games:

1. at Utah
2. at Colorado
3. Arizona
4. Arizona State
5. at Washington State
6. at Washington
7. U.SC
8. UCLA
9. Colorado
10. Utah
11. at C.al
12. C.al
13. at Oregon State
14. at Oregon

The soonest she could do it is at home against U.SC, but that would assume we beat ASU at home and Washington at their place.  If we drop a game, it could be at home against UCLA, if we drop two it could be at home against Colorado, if we drop three at home against Utah.

The point is, it is highly likely that she will win game 1000 at home during the first half of February.  Is that enough to get Maples filled up?


Re: WBB: Projecting when Tara gets her 1000th win - BobK - 01-10-2017

The ucla game would be great.  😎

Re: WBB: Projecting when Tara gets her 1000th win - ThePassionOfTheChryst - 01-10-2017

I don't follow women's hoops but I like guessing games. I'll say Colorado.

Re: WBB: Projecting when Tara gets her 1000th win - TheFarm07 - 01-10-2017

We should sweep Utah and Colorado, the Buffaloes were ranked and they beat Kentucky early in the season, but they were beaten soundly by the two SoCal schools and ASU. So there's 2 victories - 995

We should beat Arizona at home after winning by 22 on the road. ASU will be tougher, it was a nail-biter in Tempe, but I think we won't drop another one against a quality opponent in Maples so soon after losing to the Beavers (there's my optimism) - 997

We have never lost to WSU, but our teams the last few years have unfortunately had the penchant of giving up long streaks, like Sunday evening's loss to Oregon State, (somewhere they haven't won at in 30-odd years) and the Cougars just swept the SoCal schools as well. This will be a tough weekend in the Pacific Northwest. Let say we eke out a victory in Pullman, but Plum and Osahor are too much for us in Seattle - 998

Then the SoCal schools at home. I think we beat US.C - their best win was against Texas A&M? Colorado? Then, that sets up the potential 1,000th win on a nationally-televised (ESPN2) game with the Bruins. I think at home with that type of coverage and hopefully a big crowd will lift us over Canada, Billings, etc. for the milestone win - 1000

So I am predicting Monday, Feb. 6 against UCLA at home.

Re: WBB: Projecting when Tara gets her 1000th win - 81alum - 01-11-2017

Projecting when she gets the 1000th is quite difficult given that there are several highly competitive games coming up, and so the projection winds up becoming a real statement about how you think the team is doing. 

This is not like our old teams that won every game they were supposed to win.  And so looking at those games when we will be favored--Utah, Colorado, Arizona, Washington State and USC--it is entirely possible that we could drop one of them.  At Washington State is perhaps the riskiest. 

Arizona State at home will be tough.  ASU will be highly motivated and they also will have the earlier game film to study, and so the past results are not necessarily a good prediction.  But playing at home will help, and hopefully Kaylee will be rounding back into form--both of which are small advantages we did not have last time.

Washington at their place will be a very tough game.  I'm not sure we have the personnel to defend Plum very well--we did not last year, and we have been vulnerable to the trey and so Romeo will be a problem for us.  Still, we handily won one of our three games against Washington last year, and Oregon State showed that Washington can be beaten and that Plum is mortal. 

So...I think it would be very unlikely that we would beat both ASU and Washington, and so we very likely might be trying to get to 1000 against UCLA at home.  But how will we play against UCLA?  Last year was a devastating loss, but they certainly look vulnerable after being swept in Washington.  We will have them at home this time. 

So here is what I would say:
10% odds of clinching 1000 against S.C (don't lose a game)
45% odds of clinching 1000 against U.CLA (for example, only lose to Washington)
30% odds of clinching 1000 against Colorado (for example, lose to Washington and UCLA)
10% odds of clinching 1000 against Utah (for example, lose to ASU, Washington, and UCLA)
5% odds of clinching 1000 away against C.al or at home against C.al




Re: WBB: Projecting when Tara gets her 1000th win - 81alum - 01-29-2017

I need to eat my words.  We have won out since I made this prediction, and we could see Tara hit 1000 on Friday against SC.

6pm Friday, at home against SC.  Tara goes for 1000.

Everyone who possibly can, be there.  It would be good to have a sellout for this incredible achievement of Tara's.  Buy a plane ticket.



Re: WBB: Projecting when Tara gets her 1000th win - Phogge - 01-30-2017

Probably a better question is "When will she get #1099?"

Maybe the Chronicle will finally give her the coverage she deserves as the greatest coach/manager in Bay Area history. Don't hold your breath.