WBB: Looking forward to next year

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WBB: Looking forward to next year - 81alum - 03-31-2017

What will the team be like next year?

Alanna Smith may become the centerpiece, playing a stretch 4 would be my guess, but attacking the basket from the low blocks when possible.Â She does need to expand the variety of her inside moves to avoid becoming predictable--and she has had a tendency to miss some high percentage shots, so there is a lot of room for improvement.Â Do Maya Dodson and Estella Moschkau fit here too?Â I have no idea where Tara might play them, but after Nadia's experience I've learned to be conservative about guessing whether a frosh will play much.

At the 5 there are options.Â Nadia Fingall looked like a natural 5 earlier this year, hitting everything in close.Â Can she get back to that level of play, against serious competition?Â Kaylee Johnson has played the 4 but perhaps she is a better 5?Â Can she become more consistent scoring around the basket?Â She is still our best rebounder, minute for minute.Â And what about Shannon Coffee?Â Shannon might not become a starter, but perhaps she could become the next Sarah Boothe and get us some minutes and points and absorb a few fouls.Â Shannon wound up the season with the team's best shooting percentage--although perhaps a deceptive stat with relatively few chances.Â I'm guessing that Nadia has the greatest upside and will improve the most--but that is a guess based upon how good she looked at times early in our season.

At the three it would seem that Britt McPhee can be a scoring machine, but she needs consistency--but she has shown she can be a good defender.Â And DiJonai Carrington can play the 3 and play it well, and will probably be much better next year than she was this year with her late start.Â But maybe those two get moved out to the 2 if Moschkau turns out to play the 3 well.Â And Alyssa Jerome, a 6'1" forward, might fit in at the three better than the 4 or 5.Â

Marta Sniezek has shown signs of becoming a great point guard, but she needs more offense.Â If Anna Wilson recovers fully she might challenge Marta, or if not perhaps Kianna Williams will be pressed into service as backup.

With Karlie and Bri graduating, the competition is wide open for shooting guard.Â Alexa Romano has looked very good to me in limited minutes. Mikaela Brewer has not been much of a factor since very early this year, and so it is hard to know whether she can be the next Karlie as I once thought she might.Â But this much is sure:Â either Anna or Kianna or Alexa or Mikaela will be playing a lot more minutes next year--the competition for the 2 might be fierce.

I am going to assume that none of the incoming frosh will start right away, and I will assume the same about this year's freshman who have not played much (Anna and Mikaela).Â If I had to guess who the five starters at the beginning of the season would be, I would guess:

Fingall 5 (Johnson also plausible)
Smith 4
Carrington 3 (Or McPhee)
McPhee 2 (Or Wilson)
Sniezek 1

With Kaylee, Anna, and Alexa first in off the bench.Â But if she has a great off season, I could see Kaylee starting again.Â And Anna could really sparkle in the off season if she is healthy.Â If not by then, I could see Anna working her way in to the lineup later in the season, perhaps as a 2 if Marta is doing well.

One interesting question is whether Tara will go big or go small at the 2-3-4 positions.Â Are our shorter guards--Anna, Kianna, Mikaela, and Alexa more worthy of play than our plethora of wings--DiJonai, Britt, Moshkau, and Maybe Jerome?Â I'm sure that Tara will play our five best players, regardless of what their prior positions have been.Â Who are the best five?Â We will start to learn the answer to that in November.

Re: WBB: Looking forward to next year - BobK - 04-01-2017

Great thoughts 81 and hard to disagree with anything you wrote.Â I did see Anna was suited up for the Thursday practice although didn't participate.Â Â Seems she is over her foot injury.Â
Coffee if healthy and she hasn't been she could contribute.
Is Brewer on the team?Â Well banquet is Next Sunday so we will soon.Â But she hadn't traveled with the team for close to two months

Need a three shooter. Wilson ?Â Per Paye could be

Will we have a John Dunning surprise?

Here's the interesting thing we will have 15 players not 13 like this season which without Wilson and Brewer has really been 11.Â

Re: WBB: Looking forward to next year - M T - 04-01-2017

I don't think Fingall will be our go-to 5 next year.Â Yeah, she got the potential for better offense, but despite all the playing time this year, she's still relatively clumsy and gets beat often.Â I'm sure she'll get a lot of time against the weaker opponents to continue trying to get her to gain experience.Â I think Johnson's more likely to be more reliable for rebounding and defense, with a possibility of developing more offense, and with more basketball smarts.

In my opinion, Marta has the capability of developing her offense.Â She was the surprise to South Carolina, helping to give us a good lead in the first half, but then disappeared in the second (I'm sure an adjustment in defense contributed to that).Â If she doesn't, she may again find herself not being used as a starter, being passed over for someone who has a better chance of contributing to an initial first few minutes of offense.

Alanna made good strides this year but is still a little rough around the edges.Â She's still a little slow on defense, which I think is the cause of her fouls (which have decreased significantly).

Consistency or not, Briittany will be a core player for us.Â She opens up the defense and just gives the other team fits.

We will be hurting if we don't have another 3-point shooter.Â Brittany's skills will be wasted if she takes too many 3pt shots.Â But we need someone to spread the defense.Â (Can Stanford hire Karlie's dad to run a mini-camp?)

Re: WBB: Looking forward to next year - 81alum - 04-01-2017

Three point shooting?Â Anna Wilson was 4/8 and Alexa Romano was 5/14.Â Not much statistically, but they both looked to me to shoot confidently and accurately when they were in--Anna's release was faster than Alexa's.Â I would not be at all surprised if one of them blossoms next year.Â At that position they have to be good defenders, and that is harder for me to judge, but I am hoping that Anna will be our next Bri Roberson.Â Alexa has always seemed competent on defense to me, but we don't get to see her defending Jordin Canada or Kelsey Plum, so it is hard to say.

As for Fingall, she was thought to be a defensive specialist when she got here and her offense was a nice surprise.Â She has excellent control of ball spin which allows her to get baskets from awkward positions directly under the basket.Â I also saw her take the ball out near the foul line a couple of times and drive to the basket successfully.Â Her moves around the basket were light years ahead of McCall's when McCall was a frosh.Â For all of this, Fingall was rewarded with some starts when Kaylee was hurt and before Alanna had come on.Â She started against Yale and was 4/4, ASU and went 4/9, then against Arizona and was 4/5, then Oregon where she was 2/6, then the Oregon State loss where she was 5/10, Utah where she was 3/10, then Colorado when she was 0/3 and left for Kaylee.Â In all of those her weakness was rebounding compared with Kaylee.Â Not sure if that was part of a scheme, but Nadia consistently got low single digits in rebounding, and sometimes no defensive rebounds at all.Â Kaylee, by contrast, is our best rebounder but has seldom scored as well as Nadia.Â On those rare occasions when Nadia got playing time near the end of the season, something does seem to have changed in her.Â

So, I think the starter will depend on whether Nadia's rebounding or Kaylee's offense develops more over the off season.Â What we do know is that Tara finished the season by giving Kaylee more time than Nadia, but putting both of them behind Alanna for playing time.Â

Re: WBB: Looking forward to next year - TheFarm07 - 04-01-2017

It's hard to say 7+ months out, as 81alum and others alluded to, it depends on how our players develop and improve over the summer.

Does the development in Kaylee's offensive game outpace the improvements in Nadia's defense and rebounding?

Does Marta finally gain the confidence to shoot some jumpers when she's open? She has shown that she is a great passer and can orchestrate an offense, can she generate some points on her own on a consistent basis?

In a league with star guards like UW's Plum, UCLA's Canada, OSU's Wiese and Oregon's Ionescu, can one of our unproven guards like Romano or Wilson or Williams develop into one as well? We've been missing that star point guard that can not only distribute, but can drive and score on her own.

Will Wilson and Brewer be back and able to contribute after extended absences over this season?

Can Alanna and Brit continue to improve so they can shoulder the load and attention of our offense and opposing teams' defenses? This year, they had Karlie and Erica as well, but next year, the focus will be on them to be our go-to players. Can they take the next step into potentially becoming All-Americans? Are their ceilings that high?

Will the freshmen make an instant impact? Tara typically transitions them in slowly unless their skillset is immediately needed, such as Marta taking on significant minutes as PG last season. Williams and Dodson are top-15 recruits and Moschkau and Jerome are not too shabby either.

Will Nadia and DiJonai seize the chance to shine with potentially more minutes? Both players' playing times were blocked by the depth ahead of them and their relative inexperience.

Re: WBB: Looking forward to next year - TheFarm07 - 04-01-2017

Taking a look around the league and seeing who is graduating, I think UW, Arizona State and Oregon State will take a step back (relative to this year) and I believe UCLA and Oregon will be our biggest competitors next year with WSU and Ca.l as possible darkhorses.

Re: WBB: Looking forward to next year - BostonCard - 04-01-2017

(04-01-2017, 09:49 AM)BobK link Wrote:Will we have a John Dunning surprise?

Re: WBB: Looking forward to next year - TheFarm07 - 04-01-2017

(04-01-2017, 09:20 PM)Boston Card link Wrote:[quote author=BobK link=topic=16748.msg191024#msg191024 date=1491065391]
Will we have a John Dunning surprise?

I'm surprised that no one picked up on this!Â Now that Tara has hit 1000 wins, and has taken a team that no one thought was final four material to the final four, I could see her retiring and making way for Kat Paye.Â Of course, she has given no indication that she doesn't love what she's doing, and she is 86 wins (maybe 3 years away) from taking the all time wins record from the late Patt Summitt.Â I don't know that she cares, but it might be a consideration.Â She clearly still has it in her.Â On the other hand, she might well enjoy being able to spend more time on the piano and retire on a high note.
[/quote]

I have no basis for my opinion, but I think it would have been more likely if we had won the national title for Tara to pull a Dunning surprise, given how long since she's won her last one (25 years and counting)

But I feel like she wants at least one more title to prove she can do it again, and then retire, if she so chooses. I think the elusive goal might be driving her to keep going

But again, I have no insight into her thinking, so it's a wild speculation on my part

Re: WBB: Looking forward to next year - 2006alum - 04-02-2017

Great thoughts and ideas everyone. What about the following starting 5:
(5) Kayl
(4) Nadia
(3) Alanna
(2) Britt
(1) Marta

Both Britt and Alanna can be threats inside and outside, and Marta has great passing skills, so we could take it to the basket or pass inside to either Nadia or Kayl. That lineup gives us 3 6'3" players so we can exploit height and a rebounding edge. We lose a little bit of speed and defensive prowess against fast guards (which will be especially challenging against UCLA without Bri and Karlie), and also a some of perimeter offense, but I could see some advantages to having both Kayl and Nadia in at the same time, because they complement each other's skill sets really nicely: Kayl is slightly better on defense, and Nadia better on offense. Then Britt and Alanna are our main offensive threats from anywhere on the floor, with Marta to run the show and (hopefully) develop a little more shooting prowess from long distance herself.

By mid-season, I could see Carrington having the potential to be really good, and Kiana and Anna cracking the lineup so that we have two true guards at the 1 and 2, but it seems like given Kayl's defensive edge around the basket and experience as a senior, we might want her starting over Carrington and taking some of the pressure off of Nadia to do everything underneath the basket. Alanna is too versatile to spend all of her time posting up, so for a lot of our sets it would be just Nadia, and I think she'll need more experience before she'll be fully confident doing that.

I'll be curious to find out:
1. Is Anna medical red-shirting? She only played 6 games, so it seems like she's qualified to?
2. Will Brewer remain on the team? I know she had injury issues and wasn't traveling with the team, but it seems like there must be something more than that going on.

(04-01-2017, 09:49 AM)BobK link Wrote:Here's the interesting thing we will have 15 players not 13 like this season which without Wilson and Brewer has really been 11.Â

We lose three (Bird, Karlie, and Bri) and gain four. If we had 13, shouldn't that put us at 14 now? Am I missing count of someone? I had assumed we would have one open spot so that next year's recruiting class could be the twins + a post player, since we only lose two (Britt and Kayl). Otherwise it's just the twins barring a change of plans with Brewer.

Re: WBB: Looking forward to next year - 81alum - 04-02-2017

2006, your lineup is plausible, since from the beginning we knew that Alanna wanted to learn to play the 3 since it was felt that she would fit that position on her national team.Â But in order for that lineup to work, we are going to need more consistency from Marta, Britt and Alanna for 3 point shooting.Â Otherwise that lineup would be highly vulnerable to the zone cutting off penetration lanes.

I think asking questions about defense is appropriate, since Tara probably puts more stock on defense when deciding which player to put on the floor.Â Remember earlier this year when she had Karlie playing the 4 with a small lineup for defense?Â Sometimes she gets good defense out of a freshman--as with Kaylee when she used her for defensive rebounding her freshman year.Â Alanna seems to have improved--although she still fouls more than she should, and relying for her on offense could run into issues if she has to play 40 minutes without fouling.Â Is it defense that has kept Nadia out of the lineup for the second half of the season?Â

The Dunning surprise?Â I've worried every year about that for quite some time, and the thought crossed my mind that if Tara had pulled off the miracle and won another national championship this year, that maybe that would be it.Â A couple of reporters who know her pretty well have commented this year that she has no such plans, but they cannot know what Tara herself may not yet know.Â On the other hand, Tara definitely seemed to be enjoying herself this year and has outstanding talent on the way in, so I am hopeful we will keep her for a while yet.Â I personally would like to see her outlast Geno, who is only one year younger

Re: WBB: Looking forward to next year - JJJ - 04-02-2017

I would love to see Alexa earn much more PT as both a long-range shooting threat and as a lock-down defender. Based on my untrained eye (which is worth absolutely zero), I think she is capable of both. And DiJonai is going to be a force to be reckoned with next season! The future is bright, viewed through my cardinal-colored shades. 8)

Re: WBB: Looking forward to next year - Class_of_75 - 04-02-2017

Tom Fitzgerald of the Chronicle thinks we're a couple years away from another Final Four.

http://www.sfgate.com/collegesports/article/Help-is-on-the-way-but-Final-Four-unlikely-for-11043827.php

Re: WBB: Looking forward to next year - TheFarm07 - 04-02-2017

(04-02-2017, 03:38 PM)Class_of_75 link Wrote:Tom Fitzgerald of the Chronicle thinks we're a couple years away from another Final Four.

http://www.sfgate.com/collegesports/article/Help-is-on-the-way-but-Final-Four-unlikely-for-11043827.php

He doesn't really explain why he thinks that we are two years away, except that we are losing key contributors (Erica, Karlie) and that the freshmen might need a year to adjust.

Next year, Alanna and Brit will be our main threats, and I think we will go as far as that they can adjust to being the go-to players and how the other players are able to step up and fill the void. I think we will adapt better than we did in the last couple years, because we have 2 seniors (Brit and Kaylee) with the experience and leadership of playing big minutes in pressure situations, as compared to when the class with Amber, Bonnie, Taylor graduated and Erica and Karlie had to fill the leadership role as juniors with only limited extensive playing time.

Re: WBB: Looking forward to next year - 2006alum - 04-02-2017

(04-02-2017, 03:38 PM)Class_of_75 link Wrote:Tom Fitzgerald of the Chronicle thinks we're a couple years away from another Final Four.

http://www.sfgate.com/collegesports/article/Help-is-on-the-way-but-Final-Four-unlikely-for-11043827.php

Hah. I think you could have written the exact same headline at the end of last season: "Help is on the way but Final Four unlikely for Stanford in 2017." Fortunately we got to rewrite the headline by the end of the season.

(04-02-2017, 04:37 PM)TheFarm07 link Wrote:Next year, Alanna and Brit will be our main threats, and I think we will go as far as that they can adjust to being the go-to players and how the other players are able to step up and fill the void.

I'd argue they're already there. Here's Alanna and Brit's stats over our five tournament games, against New Mexico State, Kansas State, Texas, Notre Dame, and South Carolina:
Alanna: 15.6 pts, 8.8 rebounds, .525 shooting percentage
Britt: 16.8 pts, 5 rebounds, 3.6 assists, .42 shooting percentage

In fact, their stats are arguably better than either Karlie or Bird:
Bird: 13 pts, 11 rebounds, .4375 shooting percentage
Karlie: 10.6 pts, 2.2 rebounds, 3.2 assists, .485 shooting percentage

Now granted, Karlie was hobbled against South Carolina and that affects her numbers, and obviously defenses were more keyed in on Bird and Karlie, but it's nonetheless encouraging to see that Alanna and Britt actually outscored the seniors over the course of the tournament, when the stakes are highest, the pressure greatest, and experience the most valuable.

Re: WBB: Looking forward to next year - 81alum - 04-02-2017

This is quite a quote, coming from Tara, and noting that Tara is usually most revealing and blunt immediately following the end of a season.Â Remember the interview last year when she commented on Lili's need to be more unselfish, and Kailee's need to commit more to basketball?Â Well, this year, she seems to be hinting that the four incomers will have legitimate chances to play immediately.Â

Quote:How many of the four freshmen should play right away? All of them, VanDerveer said.

Tara almost never encourages thinking that freshmen can play right away.Â I wonder if this came from a press conference that we could view, and put it in some context?Â Anyone know?Â Or was this a Fitzgerald exclusive?

Oregon proved how much you can do with talented freshmen, if you are willing to absorb early season losses and get them loads of experience.Â Maybe Tara is open to changing with the times.

***

In the loss to South Carolina, it turns out that Bird had her 200th career block.Â Quite amazing for someone who probably is not really 6'3".Â What a defensive career!

***

The short video interviews with the seniors that are up over at the Fast Break Club are mandatory viewing, especially Bri's.Â Bird chats a bit with Chiney, Karlie can barely talk.Â The devastation is not about losing the game, it is about losing their basketball sisterhood.Â Future lawyer Bri is articulate despite her deeply heartfelt emotions.Â

http://fbccardinalnews.blogspot.com/

Re: WBB: Looking forward to next year - TheFarm07 - 04-02-2017

(04-02-2017, 04:57 PM)2006alum link Wrote:[quote author=TheFarm07 link=topic=16748.msg191096#msg191096 date=1491176264]
Next year, Alanna and Brit will be our main threats, and I think we will go as far as that they can adjust to being the go-to players and how the other players are able to step up and fill the void.

I'd argue they're already there. Here's Alanna and Brit's stats over our five tournament games, against New Mexico State, Kansas State, Texas, Votre Dame, and South Carolina:
Alanna: 15.6 pts, 8.8 rebounds, .525 shooting percentage
Britt: 16.8 pts, 5 rebounds, 3.6 assists, .42 shooting percentage

In fact, their stats are arguably better than either Karlie or Bird:
Bird: 13 pts, 11 rebounds, .4375 shooting percentage
Karlie: 10.6 pts, 2.2 rebounds, 3.2 assists, .485 shooting percentage

Now granted, Karlie was hobbled against South Carolina and that affects her numbers, and obviously defenses were more keyed in on Bird and Karlie, but it's nonetheless encouraging to see that Alanna and Britt actually outscored the seniors over the course of the tournament, when the stakes are highest, the pressure greatest, and experience the most valuable.
[/quote]

I meant, this year they had Erica and Karlie on court with them, so the defensive focus wasn't primarily on them and you could argue #1 on the scouting report was guarding Karlie and preventing her from getting open looks at 3-pointers and #2 was preventing Erica to score on the inside.

Without them, Alanna and Brit will rise to the top priorities on the scouting report and they will get the primary attention and focus. It will help if the other 3 players on court with them can show consistently they can score as well, so that defending players can't just sag off of them and double team or leave to help when Brit's driving or Alanna's posting down low.

(04-02-2017, 05:45 PM)81alum link Wrote:This is quite a quote, coming from Tara, and noting that Tara is usually most revealing and blunt immediately following the end of a season.Â Remember the interview last year when she commented on Lili's need to be more unselfish, and Kailee's need to commit more to basketball?Â Well, this year, she seems to be hinting that the four incomers will have legitimate chances to play immediately.Â

Quote:How many of the four freshmen should play right away? All of them, VanDerveer said.

Tara almost never encourages thinking that freshmen can play right away.Â I wonder if this came from a press conference that we could view, and put it in some context?Â Anyone know?Â Or was this a Fitzgerald exclusive?

Oregon proved how much you can do with talented freshmen, if you are willing to absorb early season losses and get them loads of experience.Â Maybe Tara is open to changing with the times.

I couldn't find her quote in the postgame interview transcript after Friday's loss. Maybe she said it later. Especially with Kiana and Maya, they seem talented enough to be able to contribute immediately, (not saying Moschkau and Jerome can't)

I think Tara will have a little more luxury of maybe working them into games, especially if we have an easier non-conference schedule, to play them when we are up big and blending them in 1 or 2 at a time with our more established players rather than playing 3 or 4 freshmen at a time, which Oregon was doing more of.

Re: WBB: Looking forward to next year - mbdude - 04-02-2017

Jerome is listed as 6'1" on older sites - most recent I saw was 6'2 - but in picture with other recruits she looked as tall as Dodson.Â and taller than Moschkau (sp?)

Go to Wednesday, November 9 post

http://fbcrecruiting.blogspot.com/search?updated-min=2016-01-01T00:00:00-08:00&updated-max=2017-01-01T00:00:00-08:00&max-results=42

Re: WBB: Looking forward to next year - BobK - 04-03-2017

2006 my bad thanks for the catch. With the Hulls committed of course not yet accepted, we do have one opening for 2018 right now and are recruiting several post players including the top post in the class. And friend of Dodson's.

I too worry about the staff

Who here is going to the banquet? Would love to
Meet those I don't know.

Re: WBB: Looking forward to next year - will - 04-03-2017

OMG it took me a while as I kept thinking I didn't know McGraw had a daughter playingÂ ;) :)

Re: WBB: Looking forward to next year - Phogge - 04-03-2017

Fitz is a great guy but there is some residual Blue infection in all Chronicle employees. Where have you gone Bill Leiser?