Week 2 Preview - Printable Version

Week 2 Preview - Printable Version

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Week 2 Preview - ColoradoTree - 09-05-2017

Things should feel a little more normal this week, with all Pac-12 matchups on Saturday.Â

As usual, all kickoffs in Pacific Time.Â Note: the rankings below are from the coaches' poll rather than the AP (the only reason being they came out first).Â Â

Saturday, September 9

Pac-12 matchups

* Texas State @ Colorado (-35.5) (11:00am, Pac-12 Network)
* Nebraska @ Oregon (-14) (1:30pm, FOX). The line opened at -9.5, so some early action on Oregon.Â Is Oregon really two touchdowns better than Nebraska?Â Maybe talent-wise, but
* Hawaii @ UCLA (-23) (2:00pm, Pac-12)
* Weber State @ Cal (2:00pm, Pac-12)
* Montana @ #7 Washington (no line) (5:00pm, Pac-12)
* #14 Stanford @ #5 SC (-7) (5:30pm, FOX). The line seems to be moving SC's way.Â But SC gave up 263 yards rushing to Western Michigan, which bodes well for us.Â Darnold was mostly fine, and he was reasonably efficient on the day, but 2 picks against 0 TD passes (he did run one in) could lead to him coming out wanting to prove naysayers wrong.Â
* Minnesota @ Oregon State (-2) (7:00pm, FS1).Â How Oregon State is favored in this game, I'll never know.Â The movement is based on pro-OSU action, since it started as a pick 'em.Â I mean, Minnesota has at least beaten an actual FBS team.
* #23 Utah @ BYU (-1.5) (7:15pm, ESPN2).Â Assuming I'm not depressed by how our game went, I'll happily switch over to this one.Â
* Boise State @ #22 Washington State (-10) (7:30pm, ESPN).Â It just seems weird to see Wazzu favored by 10 over Boise State.Â All kinds of reasons why it shouldn't--Power 5 team, playing in Pullman, etc.--but it still just seems weird.Â
* Houston (-2) @ Arizona (7:30pm, ESPNU).Â I know the Cougars are going through a crazy and traumatic time right now given Hurricane Harvey, and they may still be practicing in Austin, but it's hard for me to comprehend how they're only a 2-point favorite over a pretty bad Arizona team.Â This feels like a blowout.Â
* San Diego State @ Arizona State (-4.5) (8:00pm, Pac-12).Â Some good tape to watch to prepare for the Aztecs.Â

Other Top 25 games

Morning window

* Florida Atlantic @ #11 Wisconsin (-32) (9:00am, BTN). Can Lane Kiffin shock the world??Â I mean, probably not.Â
* Cincinnati @ #8 Michigan (-34) (9:00am, ABC).Â
* #16 Louisville (-10) @ North Carolina (9:00am, ESPN)
* #20 South Florida (-17.5) @ Connecticut (9:00am, ESPNNews)
* UNC Charlotte @ #19 Kansas State (-36.5) (9:00am, TV unknown)

Early afternoon window

* Fresno State @ #1 Alabama (-43.5) (12:30pm, ESPN2). Is this line even high enough?Â
* Pittsburgh @ #4 Penn State (-20.5) (12:30pm, ABC)
* #17 Miami (-14.5) @ Arkansas State (12:30pm, ESPNU). Weird to see Miami traveling to Arkansas State, but good on Arkansas State for landing this game at home.
* Delaware @ #18 Virginia Tech (12:30pm, ACC Network)
* Indiana State @ #21 Tennessee (1:00pm, SEC Network)

Late afternoon window

* Louisiana Monroe @ #9 Florida State (-33) (4:00pm, ACC Network)
* #13 Auburn @ #3 Clemson (-5.5) (4:00pm, ESPN)
* #6 Oklahoma @ #2 Ohio State (-7.5) (4:30pm, ABC). Kudos to these two schools for scheduling each other in an actual home-and-home series, rather than a neutral one-off game.Â Unsurprisingly, this is where College GameDay is this week.Â
* Chattanooga @ #12 LSU (no line) (4:30pm, SEC Network)
* #15 Georgia @ #25 Brian Kelly and the Irish (-4.5) (4:30pm, NBC)
* Northern Colorado @ #24 Florida (no line) (4:30pm, SEC Network)

Viewing Guide:

Morning window: Go hiking or something.Â If you're like me, you'll want to burn off some nervous energy anyway.Â None of these games are really worth your time, unless you have a rooting interest at one of those schools.

Early afternoon: Nebraska at Oregon, maybe?Â Again, I wouldn't judge you if you wanted to sit this round out.Â

Late afternoon:Â So, obviously, your evening is booked from 5:30 onward, but there are some nice appetizers also involving Top 15 matchups.Â Auburn @ Clemson starts at 4, and then you can (and should) switch to Oklahoma @ Ohio State at 4:30, taking you through our kickoff.Â While it's frustrating that our game will be competing against these others, we should see a big surge of attention once those other games finish up, as we'll be the only big game going for about the last hour of our game.Â

Evening: Once our game is over, and assuming you're happy enough to still watch football, you should be able to catch the second half of the Holy War.Â All in all, a pretty darn good Saturday.Â

GameDay Watch:

This is already Ohio State's second GameDay stint this year, if we count GameDay being in Bloomington, Indiana during Week 0.Â Last week was in Atlanta for Florida State-Alabama, which was all well and good.Â This week is also sensible, with the show going to the best game, rankings-wise.Â But it might not always be so sensible, so here's a running tally of schools and conferences with number of appearances for each:

Ohio State: 2
Oklahoma: 1
Alabama: 1
Florida State: 1
Indiana: 1

Big Ten: 3
Big 12: 1
SEC: 1
ACC: 1
Pac-12: 0

As far as Stanford's chances, this week would have been as good as any, but as long as we keep winning, possible weeks include Week 7 vs. Oregon and Week 11 vs. UW (though that game is a Friday on FS1, and we've seen that neither Friday games nor FOX games tend to do well in garnering GameDay).Â Week 11 also has Florida State-Clemson and Georgia-Auburn, while Week 7 has Oklahoma-Texas and Auburn-LSU.

Re: Week 2 Preview - washingtonismoney - 09-05-2017

Wildfires in the area may postpone or even cancel Oregon and Oregon State's games, due to air quality: http://www.oregonlive.com/pac-12/index.ssf/2017/09/oregon_ducks_and_oregon_state_beavers_kickoff_time.html#incart_river_index

Re: Week 2 Preview - OutsiderFan - 09-05-2017

Oklahoma at Ohio State - ABC
Auburn at Clemson - ESPN
Stanford at USC - FOX
Georgia at Notre Dame - NBC

These are all biggie Top 25 games.Â Of course they are all being played basically at the same time.Â You'd think these networks would "collude" a bit to make sure they don't stack all the good games on top of each other.Â

Re: Week 2 Preview - ColoradoTree - 09-05-2017

(09-05-2017, 12:13 PM)OutsiderFan link Wrote:Oklahoma at Ohio State - ABC
Auburn at Clemson - ESPN
Stanford at Under Stanford Control (again) - FOX
Georgia at Votre Dame - NBC

These are all biggie Top 25 games.Â Of course they are all being played basically at the same time.Â You'd think these networks would "collude" a bit to make sure they don't stack all the good games on top of each other.

It seems like they basically did that this past weekend, when Michigan-Florida and Alabama-FSU were in different windows.Â

The most bewildering part of this is that Auburn-Clemson and Oklahoma-Ohio State will compete against each other, but ABC and ESPN are owned by the same company! I mean, if Disney can't even properly collude with itself, I can't imagine it would be able to pull something off with FOX and NBC.Â I'm just glad there will be an hour or so when everyone can turn their attention to the end of our game, should they be so inclined.Â That's something, at least.Â

Slotting Auburn-Clemson into the early afternoon window would have made some sense, opposite Pitt-Penn State, and then you could have Alabama on ESPN in the late afternoon window opposite Ohio State-Oklahoma.Â I know you have to set kickoff times some time in advance, but they knew before the season started that they had two Top 15 matchups in Week 2.Â

Re: Week 2 Preview - fullmetal - 09-05-2017

It just occurred to me that if Cam Smith's 1H absence led to WMU sustaining TD drives with the ground game, then WMU could have easily lost the TOP game as well as missed out on a TD or two given less rest for the defense and a better U$C defensive performance.Â Doesn't bode well at all for Stanford.Â Should be a closer game than I predicted, I suppose.

Re: Week 2 Preview - ColoradoTree - 09-06-2017

(09-05-2017, 01:11 PM)fullmetal link Wrote:It just occurred to me that if Cam Smith's 1H absence led to WMU sustaining TD drives with the ground game, then WMU could have easily lost the TOP game as well as missed out on a TD or two given less rest for the defense and a better U$C defensive performance.Â Doesn't bode well at all for Stanford.Â Should be a closer game than I predicted, I suppose.

I'm a worrywart, so this explanation right here is what has me biting my nails off on a Wednesday.Â I tend to think that SC's second level will be better than it was against WMU, but our OL will be able to take advantage of the defensive line often enough that we'll be able to get a healthy dose of 4, 5-, and 6-yard runs, but fewer long runs due to Smith's presence.Â

On the flip side, I worry about our own defensive line responding to SC's desire to run power and give us as much Ronald Jones II as we can handle.Â That said, that line battle is interesting in that their strengths (C, RG) line up against ours (Harrison Phillips), and their relative weaknesses (new starting OTs) line up against our somewhat undersized DEs.Â I figure the A gaps will be relatively clogged, but I have no idea how the OT-DE battles will go, and thus how effective running off-tackle will be for SC.Â

Re: Week 2 Preview - Spiny_Norman - 09-06-2017

U.SC knows that they have to be more physical vs Stanford - http://www.latimes.com/sports/usc/la-sp-usc-stanford-20170905-story.html

Quote: "I love where they're at, Helton said. He cautioned his team against personal fouls, but he said the defense needed more physicality against Stanford than it showed in the opener.

"You saw it today, I thought they had their jaws set, Helton said. I mean, they're mad. And that's what you want, you want a defense that's mad.

Re: Week 2 Preview - fullmetal - 09-06-2017

So yeah, it's gonna get dirty.

Re: Week 2 Preview - CTcard - 09-06-2017

(09-06-2017, 12:39 PM)Spiny_Norman link Wrote:U.SC knows that they have to be more physical vs Stanford

Quote:
"You saw it today, I thought they had their jaws set, Helton said. I mean, they're mad. And that's what you want, you want a defense that's mad.

Good thing he likes a mad defense, they should be even madder next week after we unset their jaws.

(09-06-2017, 12:53 PM)fullmetal link Wrote:So yeah, it's gonna get dirty.

I fear this.

It's certainly what happened with UCLA last year. They spent weeks pumping themselves up about how Stanford wasn't going to push them around anymore, and they came out on fire complete with tons of cheap shots and dirty play.

In the end the effort trashed both teams.
Stanford suffered a ton of injuries that the team didn't really recover from for about six games - in some ways not at all. UCLA went into a tailspin the rest of the season (though to be sure a big chunk of their tailspin was losing Rosen two weeks later).

Re: Week 2 Preview - fullmetal - 09-06-2017

It's things like this that silently derail a could-have-been championship season.Â We'll see what happens :\

Re: Week 2 Preview - Goose - 09-06-2017

I guess I just expect at least some "dirty" play from USC. Certainly there is a history of it, and not just against us. I am not sure they have the type of defense that can successfully be that "physical", one on one, jaw set or not. UCLA last year did. They had some genuinely fast, aggressive, and mean folks out there. Unfortunately, anybody can play dirty. Hopefully, USC either won't (fat chance), or will not be able to do it well enough to get away with it. I do hope the coaches remind the refs that this can happen, and it will be kept under control.

Re: Week 2 Preview - Mick - 09-06-2017

(09-06-2017, 04:05 PM)Goose link Wrote:I guess I just expect at least some "dirty" play from Under Stanford Control (again). Certainly there is a history of it, and not just against us. I am not sure they have the type of defense that can successfully be that "physical", one on one, jaw set or not. UCLA last year did. They had some genuinely fast, aggressive, and mean folks out there. Unfortunately, anybody can play dirty. Hopefully, Under Stanford Control (again) either won't (fat chance), or will not be able to do it well enough to get away with it. I do hope the coaches remind the refs that this can happen, and it will be kept under control.

Who is dirtier, U$C or C.al?

Re: Week 2 Preview - Goose - 09-06-2017

(09-06-2017, 04:32 PM)Mick link Wrote:[quote author=Goose link=topic=17315.msg199367#msg199367 date=1504739124]
I guess I just expect at least some "dirty" play from Under Stanford Control (again). Certainly there is a history of it, and not just against us. I am not sure they have the type of defense that can successfully be that "physical", one on one, jaw set or not. UCLA last year did. They had some genuinely fast, aggressive, and mean folks out there. Unfortunately, anybody can play dirty. Hopefully, Under Stanford Control (again) either won't (fat chance), or will not be able to do it well enough to get away with it. I do hope the coaches remind the refs that this can happen, and it will be kept under control.

Who is dirtier, U$C or C.al?
[/quote]
First, I can't claim to be an expert. Lots of "dirty" play is not noticed by TV or the crowd because it is away from the ball or after the play is over. My impression of dirty play by C.al is individuals picking fights or in a few cases going for the knees. Dirty play by U$C seems to me to be more widespread and not confined to individuals. It seems more a "team" approach that anything, and I mean anything, goes. Players who get 15 yard penalties seem to be congratulated by their teammates. The U$C players stepping on people was not a new event, it was just more blatant. Both teams seem somewhat prone to "frustration" dirty play when they are getting beat, but since C.al has more recent experience in that area, maybe less so (?)Â :) I guess we should bring UCLA into the mix as well, although I don't remember much history of them being particularly dirty. Last year could be considered as a desperation anomaly perhaps?

UPDATE: attempting to get some "real" data, the best I could find was
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mCicM39-x3gie_Q8BgGTc7335y8ghKyZ5hTpZYQZNTw/edit#gid=0

It is pretty old, but it indicates UCLA was the worst of the bunch. Oregon was worse that U$C, and Cal and Stanford were about equal. These are penalties that were called. If you are dirty and clever, it doesn't show up.

Re: Week 2 Preview - Spiny_Norman - 09-06-2017

(09-06-2017, 05:26 PM)Goose link Wrote:UPDATE: attempting to get some "real" data, the best I could find was
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mCicM39-x3gie_Q8BgGTc7335y8ghKyZ5hTpZYQZNTw/edit#gid=0

It is pretty old, but it indicates UCLA was the worst of the bunch. Oregon was worse that U$C, and ×ÉÉ and Stanford were about equal. These are penalties that were called. If you are dirty and clever, it doesn't show up.

Check out the Vontaze Burfict effect at ASU - in 2011 (his final year) - 3.23 personal foul and unsportsmanlike penalties PER GAME by the team. In 2012 - 0.69.

Re: Week 2 Preview - Goose - 09-06-2017

(09-06-2017, 06:07 PM)Spiny_Norman link Wrote:[quote author=Goose link=topic=17315.msg199370#msg199370 date=1504743978]
UPDATE: attempting to get some "real" data, the best I could find was
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mCicM39-x3gie_Q8BgGTc7335y8ghKyZ5hTpZYQZNTw/edit#gid=0

It is pretty old, but it indicates UCLA was the worst of the bunch. Oregon was worse that U$C, and ×ÉÉ and Stanford were about equal. These are penalties that were called. If you are dirty and clever, it doesn't show up.

Check out the Vontaze Burfict effect at ASU - in 2011 (his final year) - 3.23 personal foul and unsportsmanlike penalties PER GAME by the team. In 2012 - 0.69.
[/quote]
He was (is?) dirty and not clever. The rest of ASU seems to have been pretty good citizens, thus the drop when he was gone. No coach should tolerate that kind of behavior, no matter how good the player was otherwise. Why the Bungles want such a guy is beyond me. These things usually don't end well for the team that has him. He is a bomb that will detonate at an inconvenient time.

Re: Week 2 Preview - stupac2 - 09-07-2017

Don't forget that McCaffrey's injury last year came on a late hit against USC.

Re: Week 2 Preview - fullmetal - 09-07-2017

Oof.Â I did indeed forget that.Â Will U$C be a noble, worthy opponent, or will the scrap in the dirt like a desperate playground bully?

Re: Week 2 Preview - Treebound - 09-07-2017

You're asking a rhetorical question, Fullmetal.Â We all know the answer.Â It's the same old story for USC.

Even the LA Times from last year points to the sad trojan trend:

http://www.latimes.com/sports/usc/la-sp-usc-stanford-20160916-snap-story.html

Cheat on

Re: Week 2 Preview - CTcard - 09-07-2017

(09-07-2017, 08:43 AM)stupac2 link Wrote:Don't forget that McCaffrey's injury last year came on a late hit against Under Stanford Control (again).

I think the play McCaffrey got dinged vs $C was this one:
https://youtu.be/a5aVIDI9unY?t=1876

It was an "ignore the fair catch sign" more than a late hit, and a little bit of an iffy call as the $C guy was at least partially blocked into McCaffrey.

It's not clear how hurt he was on the play. He kept playing, and gained all but 9 yards on the ensuing TD drive on 7 carries.
However, he did look a little less spry than usual the following week vs UCLA.
I think McCaffrey got considerably more hurt vs UCLA, though I cannot tell you the play.
He looked well off his usual self vs UW, seemed to be barely able to play vs WSU, sat out the und game, and still looked non-explosive vs Colorado. Finally the week after that vs Arizona (that's 5 weeks after UCLA, 6 after $C) he seemed to recover his usual quickness.

Re: Week 2 Preview - stupac2 - 09-08-2017

(09-07-2017, 07:51 PM)CTcard link Wrote:[quote author=stupac2 link=topic=17315.msg199397#msg199397 date=1504798982]
Don't forget that McCaffrey's injury last year came on a late hit against USC.