What will happen? Who knows? - Printable Version
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What will happen? Who knows? - washingtonismoney - 10-02-2017
So one theme I've been pointing out is the highly variable nature of Stanford's overall performance. Five games into the season and I will double-down on those comments. Per Bill Connelly's statistical profile of Stanford (https://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2017-stanford-advanced-statistical-profile), we can see three broadly "above average" Stanford performances on defense (Rice, a 90% percentile performance on defense; SDSU, a 74th; ASU, a 60th) and four above-average-to-excellent offensive performances (Rice, 96th; UCLA, 95th; ASU, 83rd; and SC, 51st). Meanwhile you have some stinker performances (SDSU, 31st on offense; SC, 13th on defense; UCLA, 19th) thrown in there.
Mix in the highly variable performances with the tough schedule. Oregon State and kal are very likely wins (89 and 83% likely, respectively), but who knows with the rest? (All other games clustered between 44% and 60% likelihood of victory).
Therefore, I think it's hard to predict what Stanford is gonna do for the rest of the year. Mix and match Stanford's first half and ASU on offense with its second half on defense and it's a top-10 team. On the other hand, if you flip it to first-half-defense and second-half-offense it's a below-average team. The "truth" is probably somewhere in the middle -- but the middle is, shall we say, a big space. Saying it's somewhere in the middle is just saying you don't know.
Re: What will happen? Who knows? - stupac2 - 10-02-2017
Is there any opponent quality correction in there yet? Does he do that at all? I know we smothered Rice but they're really bad, calling that a 90th percentile performance seems odd to me. Same for the 13th vs USC.