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Given SOWP Last Week . . . - teejers1 - 10-17-2017

Is anyone the least bit concerned about Stanford overlooking Oregon State?  I know it's a bye week and that should help Stanford heal up and be ready to rumble, but how's this for a worst-case scenario:

1.  Oregon State decides to pound Nall all day at Stanford's "Pillsbury Dough Boy" defense (soft in the middle, get it?);

2.  Oregon State does NOT make the same kind of stupid penalties that completely derailed Oregon's offense last week;

3.  1 and 2 lead to a massive discrepancy in TOP, putting more pressure on Stanford's offense to stay on the field and convert third downs; and

4.  Chryst isn't as sharp passing against OSU as he was against Oregon. 

Even if you give Love 175-200 yards and 2 scores, the above factors could lead to a Stanford L.  I don't think it will happen, but it's not that implausible, is it?

Re: Given SOWP Last Week . . . - Snorlax94 - 10-17-2017

I was wondering the same thing so I watched the Oregon State-Colorado game.

While anything can happen on a given Saturday, I think the odds of an upset like that are very low.

While Stanford has dropped some trap games in the past, I can't recall them recently letting up in midseason this bad and inexplicably dropping one like this.

My #1 concern would be injuries.

My #2 concern would be that it would be closer than it should be due to a lack of focus and seriousness.

My #3 concern would be a very mild test of Stanford's defense with the most balanced offense since U$C (I am talking only about their relative mix, not its effectiveness). I don't think there's enough star power there to come within 10, but if Stanford struggles even slightly with the Beaver's just OK mix of pass and run (even if we win), that will  bode very poorly for how we'll do against Washington.

This will also be the second game for their new interim head coach. On the one hand, he is incented to shock the world and set himself up nicely for next season. On the other hand, he has no time to try to install much new at all.

So, while an upset is always possible, I am more worried about implications for the rest of the season (injuries, possible weaknesses, implications for the H)eisman).

Re: Given SOWP Last Week . . . - DC 86 - 10-17-2017

Anything can happen, particularly in mid-week games, but Oregon State has a -157 scoring differential through seven games this season.

One thing about David Shaw is that he seems to have imposed a culture whereby Stanford doesn't overlook opponents; under his watch the team has never lost a game in which it was favored by more than ten points. Historically Stanford seemed to often play down to the level of its opponents (and raise its game against top teams), whereas the program is now characterized by Shaw's steady temperament.

Re: Given SOWP Last Week . . . - Sea Loon - 10-17-2017

I would have felt more confident if Oregon State hadn't just had their coaching issues, which can get players and coaches angry and out to prove a point. That makes them dangerous and unpredictable.

Also (of course it may be quality of competition too) but we have looked much better at home than on the road. It's hard to bag a quality road win in the P12.

I hope the feeling of the team continuing to improve is true. If they play as well as they have in the past few games, we will be OK. But I think a little worry is never unreasonable.  :)

Re: Given SOWP Last Week . . . - Row80Critic - 10-17-2017

Stanford should open as a 25+ point favorite.  That doesn't guarantee anything, of course, but it would be an epic upset.

Re: Given SOWP Last Week . . . - CardinalSagehen - 10-17-2017

(10-17-2017, 05:10 PM)Sea Loon link Wrote:I would have felt more confident if Oregon State hadn't just had their coaching issues, which can get players and coaches angry and out to prove a point. That makes them dangerous and unpredictable.

I'm basically not concerned about this game, but I agree with your point that OSU is more dangerous now than before Andersen's departure. 

In their one game since the coaching change, a 36-33 loss to Colorado, OSU did all of the following:
Put up 569 total yards of offense.
Gave up only 385 total yards.
Gained more yards per play, per pass and per rush than Colorado.
Dominated TOP (35:40 to 24:20)
Outperformed UW, UCLA and UofA offensively vs. Colorado, in terms of total yards and yards per play.

In fact, just from looking at the box score, OSU's one INT stands out, but otherwise it's hard to figure out how OSU managed to lose this game.   

Of course, we are much better this year than Colorado - they are not an appropriate measuring stick for us.  I expect this game to be relatively easy sledding.  I'm just echoing the point that OSU is probably more dangerous now than they originally appeared a few weeks ago, after losing their disgruntled head coach...


Re: Given SOWP Last Week . . . - ADPATERSON - 10-17-2017

We should take ORST lightly and start preping for @WAST in the Palouse. TOUGH game.
Fortunately, the GrubbyBears just gave us the best film for stopping Cougs.  Wilcox dialed up the pressure.

Nall is a potent RB, but we can smack the Beavs.  We should totaly blow off prepping for them and book the win.
We have too many weapons now.  We just blew out the Ducks, so let's rest on our laurels.
..or
ORST is the perfect game to work on refining the Defense for the stretch run.

Re: Given SOWP Last Week . . . - CTcard - 10-17-2017

(10-17-2017, 06:34 PM)Cardinal Sagehen link Wrote:In fact, just from looking at the box score, OSU's one INT stands out, but otherwise it's hard to figure out how OSU managed to lose this game.   

It appears that OSU lost basically by ending up with FGs on four of their first five trips to the red zone and then missing a FG to tie at the end.

Meanwhile, Colorado scored a TD every time they got close.

-------------
Meanwhile, I was going to post something vaguely similar - though without the defeatism flowing from teejers.
OSU certainly just played their best game of the year, not that the bar was high. Makes me wonder if the reaction indicates they hated Andersen or really loved him.
Their strength on offense matches our biggest weakness on defense - a power run game with a big strong back.
On the flip side, OSU's run defense has been credible but not their pass defense.

On the road, looking ahead to the Washington games, it could be tougher than it ought to be.

Re: Given SOWP Last Week . . . - Beeg_Dawg - 10-17-2017

Other than "On any given Saturday....", I am not concerned about OSU.  Play your game, execute and come home with a 3 TD margin of victory.

WSU? Don't look past the Beavs.  Cal abused the Cougs left guard. Badly.  Pirate guy will have that fixed by the time we get to Pullman.  Don't think Cal is the formula for beating the cougs.

For the record, I had a long time duck fan along Saturday.  Considering their QB situation, he didn't think the ducks looked all that bad as much as Stanford just played good football.

Re: Given SOWP Last Week . . . - winflop - 10-18-2017

Based on Shaw's presser, they will start worrying about OSU this weekend. He said that essentially the team needed to get a little time apart during this bye week so they can focus on other things. I assume that includes getting healthy.

It's a road game in the Pac-12 and last weekend showed that anything can happen when you don't play in front of your fans.

Re: Given SOWP Last Week . . . - BostonCard - 10-18-2017

Phillips and Kalambayi won’t be out for the first half.  Compare Oregon’s running stats before and after the half.

Phillips was picked as co-defensive player of the game despite missing a half.

BC

Re: Given SOWP Last Week . . . - BostonCard - 10-18-2017

OSU gives up 200 yards per game on the ground, which is a worse rushing defense than Stanford’s (195 yards).  And, unlike Stanford they don’t make up for it in pass defense (280 ypg, 8.5 ypa, and an opposing PER of 166).

We should not overlook the Bevera, of course, but they give no reason to believe that they are not the weakest PAC-12 team.

BC

PS, this year’s Colorado team is not last year’s team.  They are 1-3 in conference, where their only conference win was Oregon State.  So I don’t think that the fact that OSU played them close is a sign that OSU is good.

Re: Given SOWP Last Week . . . - CTcard - 10-18-2017

(10-18-2017, 02:47 AM)Boston Card link Wrote:OSU gives up 200 yards per game on the ground, which is a worse rushing defense than Stanford’s (195 yards).  And, unlike Stanford they don’t make up for it in pass defense (280 ypg, 8.5 ypa, and an opposing PER of 166).

We should not overlook the Bevera, of course, but they give no reason to believe that they are not the weakest PAC-12 team.

BC

PS, this year’s Colorado team is not last year’s team.  They are 1-3 in conference, where their only conference win was Oregon State.  So I don’t think that the fact that OSU played them close is a sign that OSU is good.

So, in reverse order ...

No, playing Colorado tough is not a sign that OSU is good. The signs are overwhelmingly that OSU is bad.
BUT, it was also by far the best OSU performance of the year, which just might indicate they have become slightly less awful without Andersen.

Technically, you should know better than mixing stats like that: a total yards stat to show the run defense is bad and a rate stat for the pass defense.
Among other things, it hides the relative strengths and weaknesses of the beavs.
The beavs are defending the run game at a rate of 4.83 yds/carry. That's 8th in the Pac 12 and better than Stanford 5.03. Their pass defense, as you noted, is last in the Pac 12 at PER=166 and yds/att = 8.5, neither of which are really even in contact with 11th.


So, the issue is that OSU's relative strength on offense (running Nall) lines up with our weakness on defense. OSU's relative strength on defense lines up with our strength on offense. That could be a recipe for a tougher game than one might expect from overall team quality.

Or the opposite depending on how teams play. It could mean that our run game is good enough to still work just fine but their pass defense is so bad it will ease our efforts to be balanced. And if their offense can't move  against our weakness, it won't against our strength either.

Now, this latter situation is what ought to happen - overall Stanford is a lot better than OSU. And I'd have to say even a far poorer relative performance by Stanford ought to still end up in a Stanford win that is merely tougher than expected. But there's no reason to avoid discussing the matchup.

Re: Given SOWP Last Week . . . - BostonCard - 10-18-2017

I don’t know that relative strength is all that relevant here.  The question is whether we think the OSU defense will be able to stop Stanford’s offense.  The answer is that there is no a priori reason to expect that will be the case.  Oregon is a much better run defense than OSU (second in conference against the run, 3.3 ypc, 116 ypg), and we didn’t have much trouble running against them (248 yards and 6.1 ypc) despite running our second, third, and fourth string running backs for most of the second half, and losing two offensive linemen.  We also ran well against Utah, who also has a much better run defense than OSU.

OSU’s run defense is closer to ASU’s than to Oregon or Utah’s, and Love of course ran wild over the Sun Devils.

On defense for us, while their strength is rushing, they are still a middle of the road PAC-12 team (6th in ypc).  OSU is statistically more similar to UCLA running the football, without Rosen of course.

Basically, I think our success against Oregon is reassuring.  OSU is like Oregon (better rush offense than pass offense and better rush defense than pass defense) but lower overall quality.  And our defense has Phillips and Kalambayi for the whole game.

I’m not saying that there’s no way OSU can beat us, but that there is no a priori reason to expect it, or even to fret about it.  Notwithstanding last week end, I worry more about UW, UND, WSU, and Cal (in that order) as teams that are most able to exploit our weaknesses.

BC


Re: Given SOWP Last Week . . . - BostonCard - 10-18-2017

Oregon is dead last in the country in Penalties, but OSU is not much better, (104th in the country in penalties).  While we shouldn't Count on OSU to self destruct via penalties, chances are pretty high that they will have some self-inflicted damage.

BC

Re: Given SOWP Last Week . . . - CornFed - 10-18-2017

And, presumably, we'll have Little back.  :D ;)