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Luck Suffers Setback - DC 86 - 10-18-2017

Unfortunate report from Indianapolis:

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/21068176/andrew-luck-indianapolis-colts-shut-due-soreness-shoulder

Summary: shut down from throwing after experiencing inflammation and soreness in his shoulder and being given a cortisone shot.

Reports were that he had looked outstanding in practice sessions, so this is really disappointing.




Re: Luck Suffers Setback - washingtonismoney - 10-18-2017

Luck would never think it but I wonder if it's for the best. Colts need good draft picks.

Re: Luck Suffers Setback - gocard14 - 10-18-2017

I hate to see him injured but am glad they are taking the cautious approach. The colts are going nowhere fast this year even if Luck comes back. Hopefully a new coach after Pagano is fired at the end of this year combined with the high draft picks will set Luck up for success next year.

While on the topic, prepare for infinite Shaw to the Colts articles after Pagano is fires.

Re: Luck Suffers Setback - winflop - 10-19-2017

I don't think Pagano is the problem but he will be the scapegoat. The problem is that the Colts haven't invested in building a quality OL - either through draft picks or free agents. No QB can succeed behind that sieve, and I'm glad for Luck's sake that he may not play this season because I'd hate for him to reinjure that shoulder.

Re: Luck Suffers Setback - OutsiderFan - 10-19-2017

It's time for the Colts to trade Andrew Luck.  Maybe not exactly a Jim Plunkett at the Patriots tale, but pretty darn close.  It's time for both parties to push the re-set button and start over without each other.

Perhaps the Niners would trade for him?  At this point, I don't know how he would be able to command anything better than a 2nd round pick, but I do think it is worth looking into. 

The Niners have a young stud RT in the mammoth Trent Brown, and though Joe Staley is getting near the end of his career, the Niners can use a high pick to get their LT of the future, or even sign one in free agency with all their cap space.  They also have Josh Garnett and now Laken Tomlinson at the Guards, so the Niners look to be setup on the OL for a while. IOW, they have the OL situation pretty settled, so Luck would be protected. 

Re: Luck Suffers Setback - gocard14 - 10-19-2017

Why would the Colts ever trade Luck? He is an elite young QB on a contract that is already starting to look like a bargain,regardless of injury. That is the most valuable and hardest thing to find in pro football.

Likewise, any team that Luck is traded to would have to give up an enormous (we’re talking Herschel Walker esque) amount of draft capital, leaving him in the same talent starved position as when he left with worse prospects moving forward.

Re: Luck Suffers Setback - BostonCard - 10-19-2017

I think you are overstating what Indi would be able to fetch for Luck in a trade.  Right now, you have an “injury prone” qb (with a throwing shoulder injury, no less).  Who knows if he can or will get back from this.  Moreover, even before the injury, Luck was hardly an “elite” qb.  Even at his peak, he was considered among the second-tier qb’s.  Not necessarily his fault, but he threw lots of interceptions (though many were thrown trying to come back in a game).

Bottom line, I think the assessment that a team might give up a second round draft pick for Luck seems more likely than the one that assumes Indi gets a treasure trove of draft picks.

BC

Re: Luck Suffers Setback - cardcrimson - 10-19-2017

(10-19-2017, 06:43 AM)Boston Card link Wrote:I think you are overstating what Indi would be able to fetch for Luck in a trade.  Right now, you have an “injury prone” qb (with a throwing shoulder injury, no less).  Who knows if he can or will get back from this.  Moreover, even before the injury, Luck was hardly an “elite” qb.  Even at his peak, he was considered among the second-tier qb’s.  Not necessarily his fault, but he threw lots of interceptions (though many were thrown trying to come back in a game).

Bottom line, I think the assessment that a team might give up a second round draft pick for Luck seems more likely than the one that assumes Indi gets a treasure trove of draft picks.

BC
I don't ever recall Luck being considered a second tier quarterback, of course I guess that depends on how many tiers you have. His QBR during his first four seasons was never below 11th in the league. I remember the pundits commenting on his tremendous ability and potential given what he had to work with at Indy. IIRC,  his only main detractors were Skip Bayless and Phil Simms.

Re: Luck Suffers Setback - FarmBoy - 10-19-2017

(10-19-2017, 07:45 AM)cardcrimson link Wrote:[quote author=Boston Card link=topic=17729.msg207072#msg207072 date=1508420590]
I think you are overstating what Indi would be able to fetch for Luck in a trade.  Right now, you have an “injury prone” qb (with a throwing shoulder injury, no less).  Who knows if he can or will get back from this.  Moreover, even before the injury, Luck was hardly an “elite” qb.  Even at his peak, he was considered among the second-tier qb’s.  Not necessarily his fault, but he threw lots of interceptions (though many were thrown trying to come back in a game).

Bottom line, I think the assessment that a team might give up a second round draft pick for Luck seems more likely than the one that assumes Indi gets a treasure trove of draft picks.

BC
I don't ever recall Luck being considered a second tier quarterback, of course I guess that depends on how many tiers you have. His QBR during his first four seasons was never below 11th in the league. I remember the pundits commenting on his tremendous ability and potential given what he had to work with at Indy. IIRC,  his only main detractors were Skip Witless and Phil Simms.
[/quote]

His elite status was ALWAYS up for debate. His stats were not great (from an efficiency standpoint), but it was always a question of whether that was teh team's fault (bad OLine, few targets) or his. He only made the pro-bowl because other players dropped out. He only had one season of >60% completion, He was never top of the leauge in rating/QBR.

Re: Luck Suffers Setback - DC 86 - 10-19-2017

(10-19-2017, 06:43 AM)Boston Card link Wrote:Moreover, even before the injury, Luck was hardly an “elite” qb.  Even at his peak, he was considered among the second-tier qb’s.

BC

Every year since 2014 ESPN has published its "Quarterback Tiers" project, based on anonymous polling of dozens of NFL coaches and front office executives:

2014: Luck placed in Tier 1, #5 overall quarterback in the NFL.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/11156302/nfl-anonymous-league-insiders-rank-32-starting-quarterbacks-tiers

2015: Luck placed in Tier 1, #3 overall quarterback in the NFL.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/13261036/league-insiders-rank-32-starting-quarterbacks-tiers-nfl

2016: Luck placed in Tier 2, #7 overall quarterback in the NFL.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/17235940/2016-nfl-qb-tier-rankings-new-england-patriots-tom-brady-green-bay-packers-aaron-rodgers-pittsburgh-steelers-ben-roethlisberger

2017: Luck placed at the top of Tier 2, #6 overall quarterback in the NFL.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/20400339/2017-nfl-qb-tier-rankings-new-england-patriots-tom-brady-green-bay-packers-aaron-rodgers

He was also voted into the Pro Bowl three times before injuries began to cut short his seasons.

I don't think Indianapolis would sell low on Luck given how difficult it is to find an elite quarterback; wiser to hope that he somehow regains his previous form. The question of his trade value right now is basically moot anyway since he would be unable to pass another team's physical. However, if he was healthy (or better said, when he was healthy) he was definitely highly regarded within the league based on his ability, age and personal qualities, never ranking below #7 in the ESPN polling despite the onset of his shoulder issues and other injuries.

Re: Luck Suffers Setback - ColoradoTree - 10-19-2017

(10-19-2017, 07:51 AM)FarmBoy link Wrote:[quote author=cardcrimson link=topic=17729.msg207074#msg207074 date=1508424344]
[quote author=Boston Card link=topic=17729.msg207072#msg207072 date=1508420590]
I think you are overstating what Indi would be able to fetch for Luck in a trade.  Right now, you have an “injury prone” qb (with a throwing shoulder injury, no less).  Who knows if he can or will get back from this.  Moreover, even before the injury, Luck was hardly an “elite” qb.  Even at his peak, he was considered among the second-tier qb’s.  Not necessarily his fault, but he threw lots of interceptions (though many were thrown trying to come back in a game).

Bottom line, I think the assessment that a team might give up a second round draft pick for Luck seems more likely than the one that assumes Indi gets a treasure trove of draft picks.

BC
I don't ever recall Luck being considered a second tier quarterback, of course I guess that depends on how many tiers you have. His QBR during his first four seasons was never below 11th in the league. I remember the pundits commenting on his tremendous ability and potential given what he had to work with at Indy. IIRC,  his only main detractors were Skip Witless and Phil Simms.
[/quote]

His elite status was ALWAYS up for debate. His stats were not great (from an efficiency standpoint), but it was always a question of whether that was teh team's fault (bad OLine, few targets) or his. He only made the pro-bowl because other players dropped out. He only had one season of >60% completion, He was never top of the leauge in rating/QBR.
[/quote]

Not true of the 2015 Pro Bowl, at least.  Luck was not only in the first group selected, but in the unconferenced, playground-style draft format they used that year, he was the first player picked. 

Re: Luck Suffers Setback - FarmBoy - 10-19-2017

It appears my memory was faulty. In 2013 he replaced Tom Brady, in 2014 he replaced Russell WIlson, but in 2015, it appears he was voted in directly.

Re: Luck Suffers Setback - cardcrimson - 10-19-2017

(10-19-2017, 11:16 AM)FarmBoy link Wrote:It appears my memory was faulty. In 2013 he replaced Tom Brady, in 2014 he replaced Russell WIlson, but in 2015, it appears he was voted in directly.
So, in 2013 he was ranked 4th behind Manning, Brady, and Matt Schaub (not a joke) in the AFC and in 2014, which didn't have a conference breakdown, he was just behind Brady, Brees, Manning, Newton, Rivers and Wilson. Seems to be pretty highly regarded imho.

Re: Luck Suffers Setback - Mick - 10-19-2017

(10-19-2017, 05:28 AM)OutsiderFan link Wrote:It's time for the Colts to trade Andrew Luck.  Maybe not exactly a Jim Plunkett at the Patriots tale, but pretty darn close.  It's time for both parties to push the re-set button and start over without each other.

Perhaps the Niners would trade for him?  At this point, I don't know how he would be able to command anything better than a 2nd round pick, but I do think it is worth looking into. 

The Niners have a young stud RT in the mammoth Trent Brown, and though Joe Staley is getting near the end of his career, the Niners can use a high pick to get their LT of the future, or even sign one in free agency with all their cap space.  They also have Josh Garnett and now Laken Tomlinson at the Guards, so the Niners look to be setup on the OL for a while. IOW, they have the OL situation pretty settled, so Luck would be protected.

I think they want to move Trent to LT when Staley retires, or so I hear.

Re: Luck Suffers Setback - Mick - 10-19-2017

(10-19-2017, 06:43 AM)Boston Card link Wrote:I think you are overstating what Indi would be able to fetch for Luck in a trade.  Right now, you have an “injury prone” qb (with a throwing shoulder injury, no less).  Who knows if he can or will get back from this.  Moreover, even before the injury, Luck was hardly an “elite” qb.  Even at his peak, he was considered among the second-tier qb’s.  Not necessarily his fault, but he threw lots of interceptions (though many were thrown trying to come back in a game).

Bottom line, I think the assessment that a team might give up a second round draft pick for Luck seems more likely than the one that assumes Indi gets a treasure trove of draft picks.

BC

Luck finished #4 in QB Rating in 2016 and #5 in 2014.  He was a pro bowler in his first three years.  He gets injury, but I'd say he was elite.

Re: Luck Suffers Setback - gocard14 - 10-19-2017

From a trade value standpoint whether he is #4 or #10 is immaterial. There are about 15 good QBs and 5-10 serviceable ones. Every other team would give a kings ransom to get one who is young and one a long term deal.

Re: Luck Suffers Setback - ColoradoTree - 10-19-2017

(10-19-2017, 02:50 PM)gocard14 link Wrote:From a trade value standpoint whether he is #4 or #10 is immaterial. There are about 15 good QBs and 5-10 serviceable ones. Every other team would give a kings ransom to get one who is young and one a long term deal.

This is a smart comment.

Re: Luck Suffers Setback - OutsiderFan - 10-20-2017

Yes, they would give a king's ransom to get a totally healthy one with no question marks, but Luck has an injury that brings question marks.  Alex Smith got the Niners a #2 pick.  He was fully healthy and had demonstrated an ability to lead his team to the cusp of a Super Bowl.  Maybe he wasn't as good as Luck in terms of ceiling, but it seems reasonable to believe Luck's throwing shoulder health situation would mitigate any ceiling advantage Luck might have over Smith in terms of assessing his trade value.  And the longer Luck doesn't play, the more his trade value will go down.

If the Colts don't play Luck this season, which seems possible, he could plummet to a conditional 3rd round pick.

Re: Luck Suffers Setback - Hurlburt88 - 10-20-2017

What did Sam Bradford fetch?  I would argue a more pessimistic injury outlook than Luck (I am not a doctor) and iirc the Vikings gave up multiple picks including a one

Re: Luck Suffers Setback - lex24 - 10-20-2017

BC I seldom find you flat out wrong. But you are here. Before his injury, he was considered elite. The ints’s were a problem. But he had taken a 2-14 team to the playoffs his rookie year and deeper into the playoffs his next two. People knew how good he was on a team with little help. 15 was a drop. But that was injury related. 16 he played well- despite not having his fastball. 

As for trade value, that depends entirely on health. I wonder if he ever will be the same. The analogy to Plunkett is a good one.  Unfortunately. 

I want Luck to sit out this year and mend.  My hope is the Colts think Briskett is fine and trade Luck. I’ll hate them forever. What they did to Luck is inexcusable.


(10-19-2017, 06:43 AM)Boston Card link Wrote:I think you are overstating what Indi would be able to fetch for Luck in a trade.  Right now, you have an “injury prone” qb (with a throwing shoulder injury, no less).  Who knows if he can or will get back from this.  Moreover, even before the injury, Luck was hardly an “elite” qb.  Even at his peak, he was considered among the second-tier qb’s.  Not necessarily his fault, but he threw lots of interceptions (though many were thrown trying to come back in a game).

Bottom line, I think the assessment that a team might give up a second round draft pick for Luck seems more likely than the one that assumes Indi gets a treasure trove of draft picks.

BC