NCAA Championship NCAA Semifinal vs. Duke

NCAA Championship NCAA Semifinal vs. Duke - Printable Version

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NCAA Semifinal vs. Duke - ColoradoTree - 05-20-2018

It'll be an early one tomorrow, folks--7:00am Pacific--but darn it, it's a national semifinal, so get thee to a computer screen to live stream the match or follow the live stats. Next up are the ACC regular-season champions, the Duke Blue Devils, who got here by beating Oregon 4-2 in the Second Round, and then not being really challenged since, beating #14 Northwestern easily and then knocking off #11 Texas Tech (who appear to have used up all they had in upsetting their in-state rival, #6 Texas). Here's a closer look at the matchup:

Duke Preview

Duke (27-3) won the ACC regular-season title, and has just three losses on the year, twice to North Carolina (in ITA Indoors and in the ACC tournament final) and once to Georgia Tech. They boast wins over Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina (in conference play), Michigan, Miami, and Florida State, so they certainly have earned their #3 ranking from the ITA (the same ranking they have from the USTA). Duke is a slight favorite according to the ELO-type ratings at slam.tennis (we have a 44% chance of winning, though that's better than our 25% chance of beating UNC, so I'll take it). UTR sees Stanford as a slight favorite, however, as Stanford is #1 there and Duke #4, but Duke is one of the toughest matchups for Stanford on an individual basis (Stanford is only favored in three singles matches--only Pepperdine was a worse matchup at this tournament). Here are the lineups, with UTR advantage/disadvantage noted in parentheses:

1. #15 Michaela Gordon vs. #6 Samantha Harris (Gordon leads by 0.21)
2. #40 Melissa Lord vs. #55 Meible Chi (Lord leads by 0.14)
3. #93 Caroline Lampl vs. #116 Kaitlyn McCarthy (Lampl trails by 0.01)
4. #43 Emily Arbuthnott vs. #28 Kelly Chen (Arbuthnott trails by 0.07)
5. #96 Janice Shin vs. #84 Ellyse Hamlin (Shin trails by 0.16)
6. #102 Emma Higuchi vs. Hannah Zhao (Higuchi leads by 0.52)

And at doubles:

1. #3 Arbuthnott/Gordon vs. #9 McCarthy/Hamlin
2. #84 Lampl/Yee vs. #6 Chen/Harris
3. Lord/Shin vs. Chi/Zhao

There has been a great deal of lineup movement this year for Duke, so you get some ranking oddities like the #4 player in the lineup being ranked in the top 30 (Chen was the 4th-ranked freshman in the preseason rankings, behind Gordon at #2, Wazzu's Bayerlova at #3, and ahead of UNC's Sanford at #6 and a pair of Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at #7 and #8). Chen had an excellent fall and has only 1 dual match loss this year, so Arbuthnott will have her hands full there. Really, that 3-4-5 stretch from Duke, McCarthy-Chen-Hamlin, is pretty daunting. Chen has won 19 straight, but Hamlin has won 11 straight, and McCarthy 8 of her last 9, so we really need Gordon to come through tomorrow.

Recipe for Beating Duke

In looking at their close matches, win or lose, a pattern starts to emerge for teams that have success against Duke. Win doubles, and then get wins at #1 and #6 before finding one somewhere else in the lineup. It's odd to think of the #6 player in the country as a weak point in the lineup, and she's most certainly not, but when Duke loses, Harris has been on the wrong side of things. So, perhaps that's the roadmap. That said, Zhao has recorded wins the last two rounds at #6, but that may be partly due to relatively weak depth on the Northwestern and Texas Tech rosters. She's young--she graduated from high school a semester early so she could enroll at Duke and participate this season--and I just don't think she's going to pull what would be a considerable upset based on UTR alone, not even considering how great Higuchi has been.

Common Opponents

North Carolina: Stanford won 4-1; Duke won 5-2 but lost 4-1 and 4-2
Georgia: Stanford won 4-0; Duke won 4-3 (Duke lost doubles, lost at #1 and #6)
Washington: Stanford won 4-2 and 4-0; Duke won 4-2 (Duke lost doubles and at #6; Harris was down a break in the third at #1 when the match was clinched)
Michigan: Stanford won 4-0; Duke won 4-1
Oregon: Stanford won 6-1; Duke won 4-2 (Duke lost at #2 and #6; #1 went unfinished)
TCU: both teams won 4-0

A Closer Look at UNC-Duke

Because playing UNC is so fresh in our minds, it's useful to consider how the three Duke-UNC matches have gone this year. Both UNC and Duke shuffled their lineups throughout the year, limiting the utility of the earlier two matches, so the ACC tournament final may be the most instructive. In that one, Duke finally took the doubles point from UNC (UNC won doubles the first two matches), but went nowhere fast in singles. Here's how singles went in that match, with the Stanford-UNC result in parentheses:

1. Jones (UNC) d. Harris (Duke) 6-1, 6-0 (Jones led Gordon 7-6, 1-2)
2. Sanford (UNC) d. Chi (Duke) 7-6, 7-5 (Lord d. Sanford, 6-4, 6-1)
3. Daavettila (UNC) d. McCarthy (Duke) 5-7, 6-3, 7-5 (Daavettila led Lampl, 6-4, 5-2)
4. Chen (Duke) vs. Graham (UNC), 7-5, 4-6, 6-6 (6-6), unfinished (Arbuthnott d. Graham 6-3, 6-1)
5. Hamlin (Duke) d. Aney (UNC) 6-2, 7-6 (Shin d. Aney 6-3, 6-2)
6. Ouellet-Pizer (UNC) d. Zhao (Duke) 6-4, 1-6, 6-2 (Higuchi d. Ouellet-Pizer, 6-1, 6-4)

The result at #1 was shocking, given that Jones needed a third-set tiebreaker to beat Harris a few weeks earlier, but let's hope this Harris is the one that shows up tomorrow, not the one who earned a top 10 ranking!

Prediction:

Stanford wins, taking the doubles point, going up 2-0 behind Higuchi, and having Lord stretch it to 3-0 before we finally take a loss, and it's Shin at #5. The remaining matches are all close, and we might take another loss, but Gordon ends the suspense by clinching at #1. But Lampl's match is a coin flip and Arbuthnott has a heck of a battle in front of her, so don't be shocked if it's 3-3 with one tightly-contested match on court somewhere among that group. This one feels like it'll be a battle, but I've been expecting that the last three rounds. It'll be closer, but I think our depth is just too much.

While Duke has a good resume, their path to this match has been surprisingly easy. Stanford's has, too, of course, but the difference is that Stanford has played three very good teams (a should-have-been-seeded Michigan, the #1 team in the country per ITA/USTA, and the #3 team according to UTR), while Duke has cruised against lesser competition. Interestingly, Duke's toughest match in the NCAA tournament was the second round match vs. Oregon, where Oregon had tied the match 2-2 and had a battle going at #1 before falling to Duke's superior depth.

Wait, how do we watch again?

Link for live video: http://www.wakeforestsports.com/ncaatennis/. Stanford-Duke will be on the Lower Courts, while Vanderbilt-Georgia Tech will be on at the same time on the Leighton Family Courts.

Live stats: http://statbroadcast.com/events/central.php?tid=778

RE: Women's Tennis: NCAA Semifinal vs. Duke - oldalum - 05-20-2018

I'm not as optimistic about the doubles: Gordon/Arbuthnott's lofty national ranking is based mainly on long-ago wins, and it seems like they've lost or been behind against good teams lately. And Duke's #2 doubles team seems better on paper than ours. Let's hope we come out with a lot of fight and good play!

RE: Women's Tennis: NCAA Semifinal vs. Duke - martyup - 05-21-2018

We're getting smoked in doubles. 3-3 on 2 and 1-5 on 3. 2-4 on 1.

RE: Women's Tennis: NCAA Semifinal vs. Duke - ColoradoTree - 05-21-2018

So far in doubles:

1. Arbuthnott/Gordon trail 5-3 (Duke serving for it now)
2. Lampl/Yee lead 5-3 (had been down 3-0, but they're now up a break and Duke is serving to stay in it)
3. Lord/Shin trail 5-3 (down a break; Shin kept us in it; Duke serving for it now)

Lord's two service games have been... not good.

RE: Women's Tennis: NCAA Semifinal vs. Duke - BigEasyCard - 05-21-2018

The link to the Stats feed goes to Men's Tennis events dated May 15. Clicking on improperly marked links eventually gets you here:

http://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=219363

As noted, we are currently behind in doubles.

Geaux Cardinal!

RE: Women's Tennis: NCAA Semifinal vs. Duke - StanfordMatt - 05-21-2018

The play in the doubles matches is closer than the scores would suggest. I think we're about 1/10 on deuce points. But with the current scoring system, college doubles is basically a game of Russian roulette.

RE: Women's Tennis: NCAA Semifinal vs. Duke - ColoradoTree - 05-21-2018

Duke prevailed on Court 1, but Lord/Shin broke again on Court 3 and they're back on serve, down 4-5!

Lampl and Yee had set/match points on Court 2 on Duke's serve but couldn't get the break. They'll serve for their match up 5-4.

Lord to serve to keep us in it, so hopefully she turns her serving around here! She's down 0-30 quickly....

RE: Women's Tennis: NCAA Semifinal vs. Duke - martyup - 05-21-2018

We're fighting back in doubles. At 1 we are down 3-6. At 2, up 5-4. At 3, down 4-5.

RE: Women's Tennis: NCAA Semifinal vs. Duke - ColoradoTree - 05-21-2018

We take Court 2 6-4, and all of a sudden things are going our way on Court 3, as Lord held to 5-5!

What an effort by Lord/Shin to get back in that match (and that game--Lord was serving down 0-40 and we rattled off four straight to take it)!

RE: Women's Tennis: NCAA Semifinal vs. Duke - StanfordMatt - 05-21-2018

Wow. Lord and Shin fought off quadruple match point to even things at 5-5.

RE: Women's Tennis: NCAA Semifinal vs. Duke - martyup - 05-21-2018

I can't believe they might take the doubles point. They were way down early. Win or lose the point, they have momentum.

RE: Women's Tennis: NCAA Semifinal vs. Duke - ColoradoTree - 05-21-2018

Oh, man, that game was close. But Duke holds and Shin will serve to force a tiebreaker for the doubles point.

Agreed, marty. We showed great fight just to get back in this doubles point; I hope it translates into singles.

RE: Women's Tennis: NCAA Semifinal vs. Duke - martyup - 05-21-2018

We lose the doubles point. Almost climbing out of a deep hole should give them confidence that they can beat these Blue Devils. Let's go CARD!

RE: Women's Tennis: NCAA Semifinal vs. Duke - ColoradoTree - 05-21-2018

Sigh. I'm never a fan of needing four singles wins, but if anyone can do it, it's this team. Stanford is 13-5 over the last 3 years when losing the doubles point, after all.

What are everyone's guesses on where the four singles wins will come from (if, you know, we get four singles wins)? I'll stick with Gordon, Lord, and Higuchi, and add Arbuthnott for the 4th point. Not sure who gets the clincher, but I feel confident that Higuchi will be first off court.

Duke 1, Stanford 0

Singles update:

1. Gordon loses first 2-6, second 2-3
2. Lord takes first set 6-2, second 4-3
3. Lampl loses first 2-6, second 1-2
4. Arbuthnott loses first 4-6, second 2-0
5. Shin takes first 6-1, second 3-0
6. Higuchi takes first 6-4, second 4-0

RE: Women's Tennis: NCAA Semifinal vs. Duke - StanfordMatt - 05-21-2018

Tough break for Arbuthnott who lost a deuce point that would’ve leveled her first set at 5-5. Instead Duke takes it 6-4. Assuming Lord, Shin and Higuchi convert their first set wins into victories we’ll need someone to rally from a set down - likely either Lampl or Arbuthnott as Gordon is already down a break in her second set.

RE: Women's Tennis: NCAA Semifinal vs. Duke - ColoradoTree - 05-21-2018

Duke 1, Stanford 2

Singles update:

1. Gordon trails 2-6, 3-4
2. Lord leads 6-2, 5-5
3. Lampl trails 2-6, 3-3
4. Arbuthnott trails 4-6, 4-1
5. Shin leads 6-1, 6-1 WIN
6. Higuchi leads 6-4, 6-0 WIN

Very even so far in singles, as Duke leads in 3 matches and Stanford leads in 3. But Duke just needs 3 points to win, so they're on track, while we need to turn the tide at #1, #3, or #4. Big momentum swings in Higuchi's match; she went from up 5-0 to back on serve at 5-4 as Zhao has rattled off four straight, including breaking Higuchi at love, but then Higuchi won a lengthy deuce point to take the set. It goes without saying, but we desperately need Higuchi today, and she got a valuable early break in the second.

Lampl was playing aggressively like usual in the first set, but her accuracy is unfortunately a bit off. If she can harness that, she can force a third. Arbuthnott hung tough after an early break, so she has to take care of business and hold serve early. We need a momentum swing!

RE: Women's Tennis: NCAA Semifinal vs. Duke - martyup - 05-21-2018

I think the match will hinge on Arbuthnott.

RE: Women's Tennis: NCAA Semifinal vs. Duke - ColoradoTree - 05-21-2018

Stanford 3, Duke 1

Singles update:

1. Gordon trails 2-6, 3-4 (down a break; lots of breaks in this set)
2. Lord leads 6-2, 7-6 WIN
3. Lampl trails 2-6, 4-3 (up a break; lots of breaks here, too)
4. Arbuthnott trails 4-6, 3-1 (up a break)
5. Shin won 6-1, 6-1
6. Higuchi won 6-4, 6-0

Higuchi was only the third player to book a first set win, but she's the first off court, cruising in the second--she won her first 5 games, lost the next 4, and won the next 7.

Shin came into this match a slight underdog, and playing someone who's won 11 straight. I figured this might be the match where being a freshman finally got to her. And she just blew Hamlin away to give Stanford a 2-1 lead. Incredible performance from her today.

Arbuthnott got the early break in the second that we need to have a chance, and she consolidated to go up 3-0. Chen is hanging tough, holding a close one and looking to break Arbuthnott to get back on serve, but Arbuthnott went from 0-40 down to hold and go up 4-1 in the second!

It's tight right now, but we're getting what you expect from a Lele Forood team at the NCAAs--no one is backing down, those that lost first sets are hanging in there, and those that won theirs are starting to smell blood.

Stanford 3, Duke 1

Still on court:

1. Gordon trails 2-6, 5-5 (on serve, but breaks of serve still abound)
3. Lampl tied 2-6, 6-3, 0-0
4. Arbuthnott tied 4-6, 6-3, 0-0

Lampl gave our hopes a brobdingnagian boost by winning her second set, and Arbuthnott held to force a third minutes later! Harris is serving for the match at #1.

Completed matches:

2. Lord won 6-2, 7-6 (7-0)
5. Shin won 6-1, 6-1
6. Higuchi won 6-4, 6-0

RE: Women's Tennis: NCAA Semifinal vs. Duke - Spiny_Norman - 05-21-2018

From the crowd noise you might think the match was being played at Taube. Not many Duke fans in attendance. If there are, they are not making much noise.

RE: Women's Tennis: NCAA Semifinal vs. Duke - ColoradoTree - 05-21-2018

Stanford 3, Duke 1

Still on court:

1. Gordon trails 2-6, 6-6. A tiebreaker to keep Gordon's hopes alive. Come on, Michaela!
3. Lampl leads 2-6, 6-3, 2-1 (on serve)
4. Arbuthnott tied 4-6, 6-3, 1-1 (on serve)

Completed matches:

2. Lord won 6-2, 7-6 (7-0)
5. Shin won 6-1, 6-1
6. Higuchi won 6-4, 6-0

Stanford 3, Duke 2

Still on court:

3. Lampl leads 2-6, 6-3, 3-1 (up a break!)
4. Arbuthnott trails 4-6, 6-3, 1-2 (on serve)

Completed matches:

1. Gordon lost 2-6, 6-7
2. Lord won 6-2, 7-6 (7-0)
5. Shin won 6-1, 6-1
6. Higuchi won 6-4, 6-0

In order: 6, 5, 2, 1

Stanford 3, Duke 2

Still on court:

3. Lampl leads 2-6, 6-3, 4-1 (consolidated the break!)
4. Arbuthnott trails 4-6, 6-3, 2-3 (on serve)

A timely reminder from the team's Twitter account that Arbuthnott is 11-1 in 3-set matches in her Stanford career, and 5-1 this year.

Completed matches:

1. Gordon lost 2-6, 6-7
2. Lord won 6-2, 7-6 (7-0)
5. Shin won 6-1, 6-1
6. Higuchi won 6-4, 6-0

In order: 6, 5, 2, 1

Lampl broke on deuce point to get to 5-1! Arbuthnott had a nice routine hold to get to 3-3 in her match. But Lampl is serving for a place in the final right now.

Lampl two points away....

One point away....

Sigh.... Lampl is broken on deuce point and her third-set lead is reduced to 5-2. Meanwhile, Arbuthnott just broke Chen to take a 4-3 lead!

Lampl with three more match points on Duke's serve....

And we're through to the final!