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Perspective on KJ Costello - Goose - 07-31-2018

I found the following story quite interesting. Especially the last sentence.

https://www.ruleoftree.com/2018/7/31/17637478/making-a-quarterback-k-j-costello

RE: Perspective on KJ Costello - lex24 - 07-31-2018

Accuracy. That’s my question on KJ. He can make some big throws downfield. But I want to see the simple throws made on time and in rhythm. When is the last time you can remember a receiver getting consistent YAC. Montgomery?  And that was mostly on quick screens. 

Of course they also need a receiver who can RAC. Not going to be a strength of either Irwin or JJ. Wedington i# the guy that might fill that role. He should be a weapon as a slot

58.8 % this year wont cut it. He needs to be above 60. Better yet around 65. Last year as a team - 57.3. Dead last in the conference. That has to change

RE: Perspective on KJ Costello - OutsiderFan - 08-01-2018

(07-31-2018, 09:40 PM)Goose Wrote:  I found the following story quite interesting. Especially the last sentence.

https://www.ruleoftree.com/2018/7/31/17637478/making-a-quarterback-k-j-costello

Glad to see I'm not the only one who believes Stanford is positioned to have one of the best offenses not just in the Pac-12, but entire country. Really should be in the Top 25 at least.

RE: Perspective on KJ Costello - CTcard - 08-01-2018

On the scale of things I have seen at that site, this is not bad … though the need for an editor is clear. 

As always, a couple of things. 

Many of the observations about the offense under Costello seem roughly correct, except these are really aspects of Stanford's offense lately not so much a Costello thing. We have relied upon, and recruited, big receivers for some time now. One aspect of the pass game Shaw clearly likes is drawing/forcing the safeties up and then going for the big strike against single coverage. And, if I understand what he is referring to, Stanford has run that pseudo-draw to the back for some time now. 

The last four games (of the regular season) on a roll thing doesn't really describe Costello's season. He was only named starter for the last five, the first of which was tough going against a very good WSU defense; so yes the next four games were better. However, they weren't really notably different than his first two games as an injury replacement or even the bowl game (where he was apparently significantly dinged) - though they were against generally better defenses than those first two. Overall, it looks more like a dip versus WSU than a ramp up at the end. 

The really odd thing about the article is the discussion of the pistol formation. I am not sure what the author thinks that formation is, but it clearly is not what I think it is. 

The play in his gif was run out of a simple I - on first down where it is easy to convince the defense we might be running with Love. That is easier to see on a full video of the play in question. 
First TD vs und
In addition, the play action on the play is a simple sweep to Love on the opposite side of the field as the pass - it isn't any kind of draw. 

Stanford does run out of lots of formations. Those include a bunch of variations of the shotgun, but off the top of my head I cannot think of many that used variants of the pistol. But I am going to look for this in going over some of the latter games. 
[Key pistol elements: the QB in a short short-gun snap position, the RB with a deep drop directly behind the QB, usually a one-back formation but I have often sets with a FB or HB either beside or to the side and in front of the QB also referred to as pistol.]
(08-01-2018, 05:05 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  Glad to see I'm not the only one who believes Stanford is positioned to have one of the best offenses not just in the Pac-12, but entire country. Really should be in the Top 25 at least.

I think you are aiming far too low. [Yeah, I know you put "at least" in there.]

Last year, Stanford's offense had the following rankings (all rate stats, as necessary to compare Stanford's down-tempo offense to most team's up-tempo offenses):
FEI = #14
S&P+ = #29
Pts/Drive = #18  (2.78)
Yds/Play = #17  (6.45)
ESPN Off Eff* = #11


With somewhere between 9 and 10 starters returning, lots of young talent coming along, the offense had BETTER be a lot better than last year; which ought to make it top 10 on most of the relevant stats. 


* I hesitate to include the ESPN number because I don't know much about what it is or how it is calculated. But lots of people look at ESPN so it is relatively well known and by notoriety alone seems it should be included.

RE: Perspective on KJ Costello - Snorlax94 - 08-01-2018

(08-01-2018, 08:48 AM)CTcard Wrote:  On the scale of things I have seen at that site, this is not bad … 
(08-01-2018, 05:05 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  Glad to see I'm not the only one who believes Stanford is positioned to have one of the best offenses not just in the Pac-12, but entire country. Really should be in the Top 25 at least.

I think you are aiming far too low. [Yeah, I know you put "at least" in there.]

Last year, Stanford's offense had the following rankings (all rate stats, as necessary to compare Stanford's down-tempo offense to most team's up-tempo offenses):
FEI = #14
S&P+ = #29
Pts/Drive = #18  (2.78)
Yds/Play = #17  (6.45)
ESPN Off Eff* = #11

Top 25? Top 11? I am even more optimistic. First, I would say the top offense isn’t necessarily the top offense statistically. My hope is that Stanford will be *the* nightmare offense of the year, regardless of the stats. A 2017 Oklahoma , Washington in 2016, Oregon back in their Mariota days.

Because Stanford runs a clock-eating style of offense, yardage statistics won’t necessarily reflect a dominant perfomance (though a relatively weaker defense could lead to a lot of shootouts, which, though not a good thing, would pump up stats)

An offensive convergence like this may not happen again for a long time. First, Stanford has a true superstar home-run outlier talent who can impact every play, aka, Bryce Love (like a Mayfield, John Ross, Mariota). Second, a dominant line, should be a check. Third, balance. Stanford has an incredible amount of this, and I don’t know if JJAW and the TEs get enough attention they deserve for the matchup trouble they create. The fourth is the question mark for me, QB play. I think KJ has already shown he can be very good, but can he maintain consistency, and grow into great?

I’ll be a little sad if Stanford doesn’t become an absolute terror on offense this year. And for the stats/ranks, my hope is that Stanford will be the #1 Offensive Terror of 2018, regardless of the statistical leader (which, could also be Stanford)

RE: Perspective on KJ Costello - Goose - 08-01-2018

(08-01-2018, 11:44 AM)Snorlax94 Wrote:  An offensive convergence like this may not happen again for a long time. First, Stanford has a true superstar home-run outlier talent who can impact every play, aka, Bryce Love (like a Mayfield, John Ross, Mariota). Second, a dominant line, should be a check. Third, balance. Stanford has an incredible amount of this, and I don’t know if JJAW and the TEs get enough attention they deserve for the matchup trouble they create. The fourth is the question mark for me, QB play. I think KJ has already shown he can be very good, but can he maintain consistency, and grow into great?
For sure we have a chance to be very good. I would even say that we probably will be very good on offense, and I will be shocked if we are not. As far as QB development goes, if KJ plays even as well as he did against UDFG and UW last year, we have a good shot at a conference championship. If he improves even moderately, which is probable with more experience, the team can be great even if KJ is only "good". If he becomes great, we will indeed have a monster. Our style of play doesn't require a Luck or Mariota at QB, although it is great to have. If Costello becomes a Kevin Hogan, that will be plenty to do the trick.
(08-01-2018, 11:44 AM)Snorlax94 Wrote:  I’ll be a little sad if Stanford doesn’t become an absolute terror on offense this year. And for the stats/ranks, my hope is that Stanford will be the #1 Offensive Terror of 2018, regardless of the statistical leader (which, could also be Stanford)
As you point out, our style of play tends to keep things closer than say an Oregon did a few years ago.  However, seeing the other team wilt under the force of our offense will be good enough for me! The old "If they run power once more, I am subbing myself out" is where we want them to be  in week 2. Naturally, scoring 35 points in the first half has the same effect.