Around the Conference: QBs - Printable Version

Around the Conference: QBs - Printable Version

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Around the Conference: QBs - CTcard - 09-13-2018

I am not sure how many folks will be interested in this, but I am always interested in keeping track of the performance of our conference brethren, and in particular the QBs.

Two games in is in fact a little early for comparisons, as quality of opponents has varied drastically. Nevertheless, keeping that in mind I find the comparisons interesting.

Team QB    PER Yds/gm
Oregon    Herbert    213    266
Colorado Montez    179    345
Ore St Blount    171    198
Stanford Costello    163    258
ASU    Wilkins 156    309
Utah Huntley    146    283
UW    Browning 139 305
WSU    Minshew    136 367
UCLA Tpsn-Rbsn 128    186
cal Garbers 127 115
U$C Daniels    113 249
UofA    Tate    108 269

Notes:
Herbert has played well ... against Bowling Green and Portland State. He'll rack up a lot more stats against SJSU, which is competing for worst BCS team in the country right now. I trust that the pass defense he'll face in game 4 will come as a shock.

Montez played a good game vs Nebraska but his PER plummeted compared to his ridiculous 22-25, 246 yd opener vs Colo St.

Blount is a surprise. He hasn't been carrying the offense on his arm, but he's been efficient. Against Ohio State he had a PER=173.

Browning is decidedly undistinguished so far.

As usual, the WSU QB has thrown far more passes than anyone else. He has 108 pass attempts in two games. Next is Montez at 75. Costello has 58. Blount and Garbers tie for fewest attempts at 41.

Curiously, Bowers who was cal's QB last year, and officially named the starter in August, seems to now be third string.

Of course Daniels is at the bottom of the list, he had to play us.
Actually it is true that his PER=88 game against us is easily the poorest performance turned in so far this year by a Pac 12 starting QB.

I guess Tate is not winning the H-man trophy.

RE: Around the Conference: QBs - BostonCard - 09-13-2018

(09-13-2018, 02:42 PM)CTcard Wrote: Of course Daniels is at the bottom of the list, he had to play us.
Actually it is true that his PER=88 game against us is easily the poorest performance turned in so far this year by a Pac 12 starting QB.

I guess Tate is not winning the H-man trophy.

Even in his game against UNLV Daniels only mustered a PER of 137, which would have put him in the bottom half of the conference. Still, he's a true freshman, and he will likely improve with experience. Glad we played USC when we did.

BC

Also, even though nobody asked, Brandon Wimbush has a PER of 120 with 233 yards per game. He has a decent YPA (8.8), but 1 TD and 4 (oof) interceptions in 53 attempts (an interception rate of 7.5%). Also, his completion rate of 55% is not great, suggesting big gains when he gets them (467 yards in 29 completions), but lots of passes that end up on the ground or in the hands of an opposing defender.

BC

RE: Around the Conference: QBs - washingtonismoney - 09-14-2018

(09-13-2018, 03:17 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Also, even though nobody asked, Brandon Wimbush has a PER of 120 with 233 yards per game. He has a decent YPA (8.8), but 1 TD and 4 (oof) interceptions in 53 attempts (an interception rate of 7.5%). Also, his completion rate of 55% is not great, suggesting big gains when he gets them (467 yards in 29 completions), but lots of passes that end up on the ground or in the hands of an opposing defender.

Wimbush's main value is as a runner, where he's as good as they get in that respect. Still, I imagine Bry Kelly is gunshy about running Wimbush relentlessly for pretty obvious reasons -- if I had to guess he wants to conserve Wimbush and save his runs for the big games. That might have the effect of making him artificially look worse against weaker opponents.

Still, Wimbush is a streaky thrower. I was very scared that he'd taken the next step as a passer in the first half against Michigan. Turned out that was just a hot run on his part. Against Stanford, then, there are two risks: 1) that Kelly uses Wimbush as he's meant to be used (a running back who happens to be able to throw a bit); or 2) that Wimbush has the hot hand for a few quarters.

RE: Around the Conference: QBs - CTcard - 09-14-2018

(09-14-2018, 08:03 AM)washingtonismoney Wrote: Wimbush's main value is as a runner, where he's as good as they get in that respect. Still, I imagine Bry Kelly is gunshy about running Wimbush relentlessly for pretty obvious reasons -- if I had to guess he wants to conserve Wimbush and save his runs for the big games. That might have the effect of making him artificially look worse against weaker opponents.

I haven't seen und play yet, but the box scores roughly support your thesis of saving his running for the big games.

He had 19 official carries vs Michigan but 2 sacks, so 17 real carries. Don't know how many were scrambles.
He had 11 official carries vs Ball State but 4 sacks, so 7 real carries.

Without sacks he's averaging 3.96 yds/carry, which isn't great but his average is going to be brought down by scrambles that just barely avoid a sack.
I think he has had one significant long run this season, 22 yards vs Michigan.

That seems to be a lot of sacks from Ball State - was the und offense sleeping after the Michigan game?

RE: Around the Conference: QBs - BostonCard - 09-14-2018

(09-14-2018, 08:03 AM)washingtonismoney Wrote: Wimbush's main value is as a runner, where he's as good as they get in that respect. Still, I imagine Bry Kelly is gunshy about running Wimbush relentlessly for pretty obvious reasons -- if I had to guess he wants to conserve Wimbush and save his runs for the big games. That might have the effect of making him artificially look worse against weaker opponents.

Using ESPN's total QBR, Winbush is still not rated all that great. He's ranked 84th, with a run EPA of 1.2. he also contributed -4 EPA through sack EPA and that supposedly measures the QB's contribution to the sack (so, a QB who scrambles around and gets sacked instead of throwing it away or who takes to long to find a receiver and thus gets sacked that way would lose points through a sack, while one who scrambles around to avoid a sack and either makes a completion or gets some positive yardage would get positive points.... in theory). Since ESPN's QBR is a black box it is hard to independently assess how good it is at measuring what you think it is measuring. But assuming it is accurately measuring Wimbush, his run EPA through two games is worse than Brownings and ranks under 50.

Here are the relevant QB's via total QBR:

RK	PLAYER	PASS EPA	RUN EPA	SACK EPA	PEN EPA	TOTAL EPA	ACT PLAYS	RAW QBR	TOTAL QBR
1	Justin Herbert, ORE	12.5	2.1	-0.5	0.1	14.2	60	95.3	89.1
2	K.J. Costello, STAN	9.5	0.0	-0.6	0.5	9.5	69	77.2	82.5
3	Steven Montez, COLO	16.3	4.1	-4.8	-0.1	15.5	96	79.2	76.9
4	Chase Garbers, CAL	3.5	4.6	-1.6	1.7	8.2	62	75.4	76.0
5	Conor Blount, ORST	7.1	-0.2	-3.3	1.2	4.8	55	71.3	70.6
6	Manny Wilkins, ASU	11.1	-0.9	-1.4	0.6	9.5	94	67.4	70.3
7	Jake Browning, WASH	10.9	1.3	-4.6	-0.4	7.3	93	60.7	63.1
8	Gardner Minshew, WSU	9.5	1.5	0.0	0.8	11.8	129	68.4	58.3
9	Khalil Tate, ARIZ	3.7	-0.5	-1.1	2.3	4.4	106	53.5	53.2
10	JT Daniels, USC	4.1	0.7	-4.3	1.0	1.6	86	43.1	41.5
11	Tyler Huntley, UTAH	8.3	-2.7	-4.6	0.7	1.7	105	42.5	34.4
12	Dorian Thompson-Robinson, UCLA	1.2	0.3	-7.6	-0.1	-6.2	69	13.8	20.3

(09-14-2018, 07:45 PM)BostonCard Wrote:
(09-14-2018, 08:03 AM)washingtonismoney Wrote: Wimbush's main value is as a runner, where he's as good as they get in that respect. Still, I imagine Bry Kelly is gunshy about running Wimbush relentlessly for pretty obvious reasons -- if I had to guess he wants to conserve Wimbush and save his runs for the big games. That might have the effect of making him artificially look worse against weaker opponents.

Using ESPN's total QBR, Winbush is still not rated all that great. He's ranked 84th, with a run EPA of 1.2. he also contributed -4 EPA through sack EPA and that supposedly measures the QB's contribution to the sack (so, a QB who scrambles around and gets sacked instead of throwing it away or who takes to long to find a receiver and thus gets sacked that way would lose points through a sack, while one who scrambles around to avoid a sack and either makes a completion or gets some positive yardage would get positive points.... in theory). Since ESPN's QBR is a black box it is hard to independently assess how good it is at measuring what you think it is measuring. But assuming it is accurately measuring Wimbush, his run EPA through two games is worse than Brownings and ranks under 50.

Here are the relevant QB's via total QBR:

RK PLAYER PASS EPA RUN EPA SACK EPA PEN EPA TOTAL EPA ACT PLAYS RAW QBR TOTAL QBR
1 Justin Herbert, ORE 12.5 2.1 -0.5 0.1 14.2 60 95.3 89.1

2 K.J. Costello, STAN 9.5 0.0 -0.6 0.5 9.5 69 77.2 82.5

3 Steven Montez, COLO 16.3 4.1 -4.8 -0.1 15.5 96 79.2 76.9

4 Chase Garbers, CAL 3.5 4.6 -1.6 1.7 8.2 62 75.4 76.0

5 Conor Blount, ORST 7.1 -0.2 -3.3 1.2 4.8 55 71.3 70.6

6 Manny Wilkins, ASU 11.1 -0.9 -1.4 0.6 9.5 94 67.4 70.3

7 Jake Browning, WASH 10.9 1.3 -4.6 -0.4 7.3 93 60.7 63.1

8 Gardner Minshew, WSU 9.5 1.5 0.0 0.8 11.8 129 68.4 58.3

9 Khalil Tate, ARIZ 3.7 -0.5 -1.1 2.3 4.4 106 53.5 53.2

10 JT Daniels, USC 4.1 0.7 -4.3 1.0 1.6 86 43.1 41.5

11 Tyler Huntley, UTAH 8.3 -2.7 -4.6 0.7 1.7 105 42.5 34.4

12 Dorian Thompson-Robinson, UCLA 1.2 0.3 -7.6 -0.1 -6.2 69 13.8 20.3

BC

Not sure why my table code is failing. Here it is without the table function...

RK PLAYER PASS EPA RUN EPA SACK EPA PEN EPA TOTAL EPA ACT PLAYS RAW QBR TOTAL QBR
1 Justin Herbert, ORE 12.5 2.1 -0.5 0.1 14.2 60 95.3 89.1
2 K.J. Costello, STAN 9.5 0.0 -0.6 0.5 9.5 69 77.2 82.5
3 Steven Montez, COLO 16.3 4.1 -4.8 -0.1 15.5 96 79.2 76.9
4 Chase Garbers, CAL 3.5 4.6 -1.6 1.7 8.2 62 75.4 76.0
5 Conor Blount, ORST 7.1 -0.2 -3.3 1.2 4.8 55 71.3 70.6
6 Manny Wilkins, ASU 11.1 -0.9 -1.4 0.6 9.5 94 67.4 70.3
7 Jake Browning, WASH 10.9 1.3 -4.6 -0.4 7.3 93 60.7 63.1
8 Gardner Minshew, WSU 9.5 1.5 0.0 0.8 11.8 129 68.4 58.3
9 Khalil Tate, ARIZ 3.7 -0.5 -1.1 2.3 4.4 106 53.5 53.2
10 JT Daniels, USC 4.1 0.7 -4.3 1.0 1.6 86 43.1 41.5
11 Tyler Huntley, UTAH 8.3 -2.7 -4.6 0.7 1.7 105 42.5 34.4
12 Dorian Thompson-Robinson, UCLA 1.2 0.3 -7.6 -0.1 -6.2 69 13.8 20.3

With a total QBR of 50.2 Wimbush would rank 10th in the Pac-12, just ahead of JT Daniels.

RE: Around the Conference: QBs - george - 09-16-2018

(09-14-2018, 07:45 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Not sure why my table code is failing. Here it is without the table function...

With the table code (the bbcode leaves something to be desired in the convenience department). From where did you copy the data? Looking to make future imports easier...

RK	PLAYER	PASS EPA	RUN EPA	SACK EPA	PEN EPA	TOTAL EPA	ACT PLAYS	RAW QBR	TOTAL QBR
1	Justin Herbert	12.5	2.1	-0.5	0.1	14.2	60	95.3	89.1
2	K.J. Costello	9.5	0.0	-0.6	0.5	9.5	69	77.2	82.5
3	Steven Montez	16.3	4.1	-4.8	-0.1	15.5	96	79.2	76.9
4	Chase Garbers	3.5	4.6	-1.6	1.7	8.2	62	75.4	76.0
5	Conor Blount	7.1	-0.2	-3.3	1.2	4.8	55	71.3	70.6
6	Manny Wilkins	11.1	-0.9	-1.4	0.6	9.5	94	67.4	70.3
7	Jake Browning	10.9	1.3	-4.6	-0.4	7.3	93	60.7	63.1
8	Gardner Minshew	9.5	1.5	0.0	0.8	11.8	129	68.4	58.3
9	Khalil Tate	3.7	-0.5	-1.1	2.3	4.4	106	53.5	53.2
10	JT Daniels	4.1	0.7	-4.3	1.0	1.6	86	43.1	41.5
11	Tyler Huntley	8.3	-2.7	-4.6	0.7	1.7	105	42.5	34.4
12	Dorian Thompson-Robinson	1.2	0.3	-7.6	-0.1	-6.2	69	13.8	20.3

RE: Around the Conference: QBs - BostonCard - 09-16-2018

(09-16-2018, 09:56 PM)george Wrote:
(09-14-2018, 07:45 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Not sure why my table code is failing. Here it is without the table function...

With the table code (the bbcode leaves something to be desired in the convenience department). From where did you copy the data? Looking to make future imports easier...

The original table came from ESPN, copied and pasted into a text editor (Atom, if you are curious) and then found/replaced the tabs and new lines to conform to the code, but somewhere I screwed up.

Thanks,
BC

RE: Around the Conference: QBs - washingtonismoney - 09-17-2018

(09-14-2018, 07:45 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Using ESPN's total QBR, Winbush is still not rated all that great. He's ranked 84th, with a run EPA of 1.2. he also contributed -4 EPA through sack EPA and that supposedly measures the QB's contribution to the sack (so, a QB who scrambles around and gets sacked instead of throwing it away or who takes to long to find a receiver and thus gets sacked that way would lose points through a sack, while one who scrambles around to avoid a sack and either makes a completion or gets some positive yardage would get positive points.... in theory). Since ESPN's QBR is a black box it is hard to independently assess how good it is at measuring what you think it is measuring. But assuming it is accurately measuring Wimbush, his run EPA through two games is worse than Brownings and ranks under 50.

Sure -- don't necessarily dispute that. However, not sure it contradicts my theory. My argument was not that the actual playing Wimbush is all that superior, but that if he were allowed to run all the time (15-20 carries per game) he'd be a much more effective quarterback. Since that's a foolhardy strategy to take with one's QB, however, my bet was that Kelly was "saving" him for big games where the extra oomph would be needed, and gambling the streaky throwing could get him past weaker teams.

So his actual factual stats being bad don't necessarily phase me; in fact, they're my hypothesis playing out in real life. We can see that Wimbush carried the ball 19 times (including sacks) against Michigan and Vandy; in both games, his adjusted QBR is above 65 -- by no means awesome but certainly pretty solid. It's his game against Ball State, in which he ran 11 times for negative yardage, that's holding him back.

Taking Wimbush's full-season statistics as a guide for how he'll perform against Stanford is therefore likely to give some false comfort. On the other hand, if you're (say) a Wake Forest or Northwestern, you might be able to nip past N.D. given the team's (possibly) self-limiting strategy.