Stanford (+1.5) @ Oregon - Printable Version

Stanford (+1.5) @ Oregon - Printable Version

+- The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board)
+-- Forum: C-House! (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-4.html)
+--- Forum: The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-5.html)
+--- Thread: Stanford (+1.5) @ Oregon (/thread-16432.html)

Pages: 1 2

Stanford (+1.5) @ Oregon - washingtonismoney - 09-16-2018

Basically a tossup but a slight lean to Oregon. I'd probably slightly lean to Stanford but the line isn't unreasonable, I should think.

RE: Stanford (+1.5) @ Oregon - Austroturf - 09-16-2018

(09-16-2018, 03:15 PM)washingtonismoney Wrote: Basically a tossup but a slight lean to Oregon. I'd probably slightly lean to Stanford but the line isn't unreasonable, I should think.

Autzen is a tough place to play, but I still think we should win if we bring our A-game. This is not a battle-tested Oregon squad: they have basically had a trio of cupcakes for a warm-up into the season. Our defense should give them a stone-cold reality check. Our offense, on the other hand, needs to show up and be the difference.

RE: Stanford (+1.5) @ Oregon - fullmetal - 09-16-2018

I am unclear on how Oregon's speed offense will match up with the Stanford defense. If Oregon gets away with even a smidgen of holding, those ball carriers will be gone in a flash. In the 1Q vs. SDSU, I feel like there were a couple of uncalled holding instances that really let Juwan Washington break free.

If there was ever a time for a traditional run game to be called, this might be it. Against a team that relies on and practices against speed, maybe Stanford should just come out in heavy sets and knock them back 4+ yds at a time over and over again. And if I see a playaction pass out of the power-I formation, I might just be the happiest fan alive.

(I saw a fullback vs. Davis! A fullback!)

RE: Stanford (+1.5) @ Oregon - CowboyIndian - 09-16-2018

(09-16-2018, 03:47 PM)fullmetal Wrote: (I saw a fullback vs. Davis! A fullback!)

Out of uniform on the sidelines? That was Reagan Williams.

RE: Stanford (+1.5) @ Oregon - CompSci87 - 09-16-2018

(09-16-2018, 04:18 PM)CowboyIndian Wrote:
(09-16-2018, 03:47 PM)fullmetal Wrote: (I saw a fullback vs. Davis! A fullback!)

Out of uniform on the sidelines? That was Reagan Williams.

Presumably Fullmetal is referring to Heimuli.

RE: Stanford (+1.5) @ Oregon - 81alum - 09-16-2018

(09-16-2018, 03:47 PM)fullmetal Wrote: If there was ever a time for a traditional run game to be called, this might be it. Against a team that relies on and practices against speed, maybe Stanford should just come out in heavy sets and knock them back 4+ yds at a time over and over again. And if I see a playaction pass out of the power-I formation, I might just be the happiest fan alive.

(I saw a fullback vs. Davis! A fullback!)

Yes, this was our formula for beating Oregon in the past. However, I have seen no evidence that we can execute that. If SDSU and UC Davis can tackle our backs for losses on first down, why shouldn't Oregon be able to? But yes, we won't beat Oregon without dominating time of possession, which requires positive yards on first down and a high conversion percentage on 3rd down, neither of which we have been able to do so far. Our offense needs to get a lot better leading up to week 4 than it has been so far. Perhaps it can.

RE: Stanford (+1.5) @ Oregon - donkey687 - 09-16-2018

i would be surprised if the line doesn't move Stanford's way. Stanford has a very experienced team that has played a lot of road games. Our defense is good and our offense is better than it has played. I feel our offense plays well enough to win and can score when it really needs to. I think the line setters were overinfluenced by the egg that USC laid against Texas and the late score by UC Davis. Neither of those matter when we start smashing Oregon at the line of scrimmage on Saturday. We should win that battle.

RE: Stanford (+1.5) @ Oregon - Mick - 09-16-2018

Bowling Green has been on a long, downhill decline and was ranked preseason #102.

Portland State went 0-11 last year.

San Jose State went 2-11 last year, with one win over FCS Cal Poly SLO. They had a number of substantial losses. They lost to Utah 54-16. They were ranked #124 preseason.

Yes, Oregon has played three cupcakes to date. Not one of them have the capabilities of either USC or SDSU. Oregon is ranked #20, but it is absolutely the thinnest ranking ever.

I know Autzen is a tough place to play. Stanford will be ready.

RE: Stanford (+1.5) @ Oregon - d4cohn - 09-16-2018

I agree with the previous two posts. The two important questions are: 1) how would Stanford compare to Oregon on a true neutral field?
2) What benefit would you give Oregon for home-field advantage?

To Question #1, in my estimation (just my opinion), I would say that Stanford is about -5.0 points better. To Question #2, the typical home-field benefit is 3 points; however, Autzen is a very loud stadium and hostile environment, so I personally might bump the home-field boost to 5.0 points.

As such, I would set the line at pick-em, with maybe the slightest of leans to Stanford if one prefers a lower bump for home-field.

RE: Stanford (+1.5) @ Oregon - BostonCard - 09-16-2018

(09-16-2018, 05:26 PM)Mick Wrote: San Jose State went 2-11 last year, with one win over FCS Cal Poly SLO. They had a number of substantial losses. They lost to Utah 54-16. They were ranked #124 preseason.

They lost to Davis this year.

BC

RE: Stanford (+1.5) @ Oregon - akdb8r - 09-16-2018

(09-16-2018, 03:15 PM)washingtonismoney Wrote: Stanford (+1.5) @ Oregon

That line didn't last very long. Stanford is now a 1-point favorite. Still basically a tossup.

RE: Stanford (+1.5) @ Oregon - pcgoode - 09-16-2018

When was the last time the Ducks beat a top 25 team? 2016?

RE: Stanford (+1.5) @ Oregon - CTcard - 09-16-2018

Pros and cons for Stanford vs Oregon

Pros
- Stanford is on a (mini)roll in the series. The past two games were possibly Stanford's best of the respective years, winning 49-7 last year and 52-27 two years ago.
They were certainly Keller Chryst's best two games at Stanford
2017: 15-21, 181 yds, 3 TDs, 1 INT, PER=181
2016: 19-26, 258 yds, 3 TDs, 0 INT, PER=195

- Oregon hasn't faced a real team in 2018. The first exposure to real football can be a shock.

- Stanford has faced two real teams so far in 2018. SDSU and $C may not make up a murderers row, but they are generally capable and big/strong/fast enough to make you have to work.

- The evidence that "Oregon is back" is thin. It seems to be mainly based on pretty good performances by the QB Herbert against Arizona and Oregon State (last year) and Bowling Green and Portland State (this year). Not exactly a defensive murderers row.

- While his receivers have been running free against bad defenses for big YAC, Herbert has only completed 57% of his passes this year - against those weak defenses. That's 11th in the Pac 12 among guys who have played enough to be eligible (which includes 2 OSU guys).

- Oregon just struggled against SJSU more than we did against UC-Davis - and Davis had beaten SJSU in San Jose two weeks ago.

- Despite some struggles, it looks to me as if 2018 Stanford is on its way to being better than 2017 Stanford - particularly 2017 at the time of the Oregon game. The defense is far more complete, the QB is better, and now we're getting an influx of guys back: Love will be back, Burkett rounding into form (hopefully), Holder looked solidly back vs Davis, others?

Cons
- Oregon has the best rush offense so far in the Pac 12 in terms of yds/gm, and third in yds/att. I am still not completely sold on our run defense. That will be job 1.
[Curiously, right now OSU is #1 in the conference in rush yds/att, with Stanford #9. There had better be substantial re-ordering here by the end of the season.]

- Game is at Autzen. Stanford has been substantially worse on the road lately. Costello has never won a game in which he was the primary QB away from Stanford stadium.

- So far, Stanford hasn't shown in can run the ball consistently and Costello has been streaky. Now, all that gets tougher on the road.

--------------------------------------
That's it for now.

I think the pros look weightier, but really worry about performance on the road.

RE: Stanford (+1.5) @ Oregon - stupac2 - 09-16-2018

I admittedly haven't watched Oregon at all, but if we play to our abilities I think we can beat any team on our schedule. My worry is that we've had a lot of mistakes and miscues at home. What will happen at famously loud Autzen? If the OL can't communicate and get on the same page... And the various injuries make this even more worrying.

RE: Stanford (+1.5) @ Oregon - cardcrimson - 09-16-2018

(09-16-2018, 05:25 PM)donkey687 Wrote: i would be surprised if the line doesn't move Stanford's way. Stanford has a very experienced team that has played a lot of road games. Our defense is good and our offense is better than it has played. I feel our offense plays well enough to win and can score when it really needs to. I think the line setters were overinfluenced by the egg that USC laid against Texas and the late score by UC Davis. Neither of those matter when we start smashing Oregon at the line of scrimmage on Saturday. We should win that battle.

Um. We haven't played a road game yet this season. Have we?

RE: Stanford (+1.5) @ Oregon - washingtonismoney - 09-16-2018

Probably this is true to a degree of any early-season game, but judging both teams seems to require a lot of projection:

STANFORD: We've seen Stanford beat two reasonably credible teams and one FCS team. Neither of the first two teams appear to be ready to take on Alabama, to be fair, and Stanford did not exactly dispatch Davis with the verve you'd hope for from a top team. On the other hand, top teams sometimes look sluggish against lesser opposition for lots of reasons; one would think Costello won't just entirely forget how to play football for an entire quarter in the future. Still, gotta project, right?

We know -- or think we know -- that Stanford's offense is exceptionally talented at every position. (see e.g. this Aug. 22 tweet from Todd Husak: https://twitter.com/ToddHusak/status/1032354862611292162). We've actually seen Stanford's defense perform very well against reasonably credible opponents. Finally, we've seen all the individuals on the special teams perform really well in 2017. Stanford teams under David Shaw seem to consistently improve over the course of the season. So...you'd think this is all going to come together, right?

OREGON: We've seen Oregon knock over three tomato cans, more-or-less in the fashion you'd expect a pretty good team to. (30 ppg margin, 2.34 yards per play more). On the other hand, you'd also expect a pretender to do much the same. So...gotta project, right?

We know -- or think we know -- that Oregon has an NFL-caliber quarterback in Herbert. Of course the NFL frequently picks stiffs that, for some unknowable reason, it thinks fits the stereotype for the position (Josh Allen! Christian Hackenberg!), but it ain't nothing. Oregon returns most of its skill players from last year's pretty good offense. So Oregon is...probably good on offense?

Defensively, Oregon was solid last year, and returns maestro DC Jim Leavitt. Only three of last year's top 10 tacklers departed. So Oregon is...probably at least solid and perhaps better?

My guess is that Oregon is probably a top-25ish team at worst. I'm not sure how good Stanford will be, and how fast "will be" will arrive. My instinct is that Stanford's best is better than Oregon's best.

RE: Stanford (+1.5) @ Oregon - muiron - 09-16-2018

Sagarin's Stanford rating is 85.33.
Oregon's is 76.30.
That's a 9.03 difference.
Sagarin's home field advantage is 2.67.
That's Stanford - 6.36.

We smoke these guys, 38-21.

RE: Stanford (+1.5) @ Oregon - lex24 - 09-16-2018

They ran a play action pass out of the I against Davis. Costello threw an int. But yes I too would like to see that more.

What you are calling for is the 2013 game redux. But Stanford doesn’t have a Tyler Gaffney type.

Stanford has to be able to run Sat. If they can’t they will get beat. Maybe badly. I don’t think, however, it can be the Gaffney 4 times 40 show. What they need is Love 2017. Think ASU.

2013 vs Oregon was one of the most perfectly executed game plans I’ve seen.

(09-16-2018, 03:47 PM)fullmetal Wrote: I am unclear on how Oregon's speed offense will match up with the Stanford defense. If Oregon gets away with even a smidgen of holding, those ball carriers will be gone in a flash. In the 1Q vs. SDSU, I feel like there were a couple of uncalled holding instances that really let Juwan Washington break free.

If there was ever a time for a traditional run game to be called, this might be it. Against a team that relies on and practices against speed, maybe Stanford should just come out in heavy sets and knock them back 4+ yds at a time over and over again. And if I see a playaction pass out of the power-I formation, I might just be the happiest fan alive.

(I saw a fullback vs. Davis! A fullback!)

RE: Stanford (+1.5) @ Oregon - CTcard - 09-16-2018

(09-16-2018, 09:27 PM)lex24 Wrote: Stanford has to be able to run Sat. If they can’t they will get beat. Maybe badly. I don’t think, however, it can be the Gaffney 4 times 40 show.

I am wondering what you consider "able to run", and why you think it particularly important for this game?

Is the output vs $C able to run? That was 29 carries for 159 yds, or 5.5 yds/carry
Is the output vs Davis able to run? That was 31 carries for 149 yds, or 4.8 yds/carry (sacks removed)

Is the particular need for the run game because you think Oregon is the best offense we will face? Or that the defense is most likely to get worn down vs Oregon?

RE: Stanford (+1.5) @ Oregon - CardinalSagehen - 09-16-2018

Autzen is a tough place to play, but defense travels, and we apparently have a pretty good one.

Moreover, I declare, the bunny. Oregon returns most of the starters from a defense that barely managed to gang-tackle the rabbit, much less Bryce Love. I’m guessing we can still run on them.

It’s hard to know much of anything at this early stage of the season, but it seems to me like Wazzu was underrated (based on offseason tragedy?) and the Ducks were overrated (based on having an Alpha-looking QB?)

I’m concerned but no more than I would be before any average conference game.