last night's effect on Pac 12 North crown - Printable Version
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last night's effect on Pac 12 North crown - muiron - 09-23-2018
Obviously, it gives us the crucial tie breaker with Oregon. Even if they run the table, we can afford to lose one more conference game and we'd be ahead of them for the North champions.
Less obviously, it helps with UW. If UW beats us, they've got the tiebreaker and we need them to get two other conference losses. Not impossible but not likely. OTOH, if UW beats us but Oregon beats UW and the three teams win all their other conference games (unlikely but not crazy) or all three lose one and only one other conference game (unlikely but possible) AND WSU or Cal doesn't win the division, then it's a three way tie for the crown.
And here are tie breaker criteria (at least, from last year)
- Head-to-head results (best record in games between tied teams)
- Record in intra-divisional games
- Record against the next highest placed team in the division (based on the record in all conference games), proceeding through the division
- Record in common conference games
- Highest ranking in SportSource Analytics poll entering the final weekend of the regular season
BUT it does give us a potential lifeline if we lose to UW. UW plays at Oregon on Oct. 13. If we're going to beat UW and everyone else in conference, we want UW to win. If we're going to lose to UW but beat everyone else in conference, we want Oregon to win. Given that we won't know on Oct 13 how we'll do in Seattle on Nov. 3, who should we favor? Yuh pays yur money and makes yur cherce.
RE: last night's effect on Pac 12 North crown - cctop - 09-23-2018
What's the argument for wanting UW to win?
There's a vague "strength of schedule" argument, but I agree with the poster on another thread that it's really all about 1) winning your conference, and 2) having no more than one loss.
Anything that increases our chances of going to the conference championship game is good, and at this point that means Oregon beating UW.
RE: last night's effect on Pac 12 North crown - muiron - 09-23-2018
(09-23-2018, 02:35 PM)cctop Wrote: What's the argument for wanting UW to win?
It isn't strong but if we were to beat UW, their win over Oregon would give the Ducks two losses so we could lose two more conference games (Utah and Cal, for example) and still be ahead of them on head to head. (Under that scenario we'd also need UW to lose another game.)
But, of course, the same is true of Oregon beating UW, giving us some more margin with the Dawgs. So, not much reason. The "Ducks beat UW to open up the possibility of a three way tie for first if UW beats us and all three run the rest of the table" argument still is good. I think.
RE: last night's effect on Pac 12 North crown - French Rage - 09-23-2018
Waaaaay to many games left to start thinking about the division standings.
RE: last night's effect on Pac 12 North crown - Goose - 09-23-2018
(09-23-2018, 04:35 PM)French Rage Wrote: Waaaaay to many games left to start thinking about the division standings.+1
Who knows, if Oregon is flat against Cal next week, Cal could be the new problem.