Why I think we have a good chance to win Saturday - Printable Version
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Why I think we have a good chance to win Saturday - Snorlax94 - 11-02-2018
I will preface this by saying, I did think Washington State posed a tough matchup. (I said Stanford would win 21-20 in the prediction game, but due to the 10 point penalty for picking the opponent, that's my way of saying I thought Stanford would lose by less than 10). If there's one type of team that's giving us fits this year, it's a quarterback who's playing like one of the best in the country and/or a passing game running at high gear -- Herbert, Book, Minshew (and Utah has now ripped 4 games in a row scoring 40+ points). But the good news is we shouldn't face anything like Herbert, Book or Minshew again this regular season.
I haven't kept up-to-date on whether Love and Herbig are healthy this Saturday (and who can believe what we hear?), but assuming they're ready to go, this is a game I'd give Stanford the slight edge to. On a neutral field, with standard weather, in terms of matchups, it's the kind of game I think Stanford would have a better than a 50/50 shot to win.
Aside from the question of injuries, the big unknown is the weather. Showers are forecast in Seattle til and through the game, with thunderstorms the day before. The conventional wisdom for rain was that it helps the worse team (by making things more random), it helps the slower team (neutralizing some of the fast team's speed), and it helps the run-first team (because it's harder to catch and throw a slippery ball). But greater than these is the question -- how well does the team play in the rain? and I don't think I know yet if Stanford is a good rain team or not. I was of course a big fan of double Rose Bowl winner Kevin Hogan, but despite him being a Virginia native, I thought he generally did not throw good games in the rain. (He *won* a game against Wazoo with his feet, but not with his arm).
So I don't know yet -- how will we play in the rain? But I do think, assuming we can protect KJ and he can get the ball out of there, I would think strong, tall, rangy receivers hauling jump balls would do pretty well in the rain. KJ just seems like he'd do well in the rain -- my recollection is that his fingers seem longer than Hogan's, and he seems to have better zip and a tighter spiral, so I hope he can still sling it in a storm. On the flipside, I think KJ has had some poor ball security, sometimes he leaves the ball dangling out there instead of tucking it, and that could be disastrous in a mud bowl. So this week would be a good time to fix that.
Aside from all that, there's another element to the rain that I think is *definitely* a plus for Stanford -- it will reduce the crowd size and the crowd noise. Even if an equal number of fans show up, and if they are equally loud, the rain will muffle the volume. And why scream when it's not going to bounce like it would in a more packed, dryer place? But with a HIGH temperature of 55, at night, in the rain, I am hopeful the game -- and the stadium -- will not be like 2016.
RE: Why I think we have a good chance to win Saturday - JPR36 - 11-02-2018
(11-02-2018, 12:48 AM)Snorlax94 Wrote: I will preface this by saying, I did think Washington State posed a tough matchup. (I said Stanford would win 21-20 in the prediction game, but due to the 10 point penalty for picking the opponent, that's my way of saying I thought Stanford would lose by less than 10). If there's one type of team that's giving us fits this year, it's a quarterback who's playing like one of the best in the country and/or a passing game running at high gear -- Herbert, Book, Minshew (and Utah has now ripped 4 games in a row scoring 40+ points). But the good news is we shouldn't face anything like Herbert, Book or Minshew again this regular season.
I haven't kept up-to-date on whether Love and Herbig are healthy this Saturday (and who can believe what we hear?), but assuming they're ready to go, this is a game I'd give Stanford the slight edge to. On a neutral field, with standard weather, in terms of matchups, it's the kind of game I think Stanford would have a better than a 50/50 shot to win.
Aside from the question of injuries, the big unknown is the weather. Showers are forecast in Seattle til and through the game, with thunderstorms the day before. The conventional wisdom for rain was that it helps the worse team (by making things more random), it helps the slower team (neutralizing some of the fast team's speed), and it helps the run-first team (because it's harder to catch and throw a slippery ball). But greater than these is the question -- how well does the team play in the rain? and I don't think I know yet if Stanford is a good rain team or not. I was of course a big fan of double Rose Bowl winner Kevin Hogan, but despite him being a Virginia native, I thought he generally did not throw good games in the rain. (He *won* a game against Wazoo with his feet, but not with his arm).
So I don't know yet -- how will we play in the rain? But I do think, assuming we can protect KJ and he can get the ball out of there, I would think strong, tall, rangy receivers hauling jump balls would do pretty well in the rain. KJ just seems like he'd do well in the rain -- my recollection is that his fingers seem longer than Hogan's, and he seems to have better zip and a tighter spiral, so I hope he can still sling it in a storm. On the flipside, I think KJ has had some poor ball security, sometimes he leaves the ball dangling out there instead of tucking it, and that could be disastrous in a mud bowl. So this week would be a good time to fix that.
Aside from all that, there's another element to the rain that I think is *definitely* a plus for Stanford -- it will reduce the crowd size and the crowd noise. Even if an equal number of fans show up, and if they are equally loud, the rain will muffle the volume. And why scream when it's not going to bounce like it would in a more packed, dryer place? But with a HIGH temperature of 55, at night, in the rain, I am hopeful the game -- and the stadium -- will not be like 2016.
One thing I think we can say for sure is it won't be a mud bowl, since Husky Stadium has artificial turf.
If this game were in Palo Alto, I'd like our chances. However, when they are decent (and they are at least decent this year) they are very tough to beat in Husky Stadium. They have only lost one game there in the last 2 1/2 years.
I expect a close, fairly low scoring game, especially given the weather. Like Wazzu, I wouldn't be shocked if we won, but I would be pleasantly surprised.
Also, I wouldn't expect the crowd to be significantly diminished by the weather. If you are live in Seattle and never do anything in the rain, you never do anything.
Here's Shaw's commentary on the game:
https://www.paloaltoonline.com/news/2018/11/01/stanford-washington-in-similar-pac-12-football-condition
RE: Why I think we have a good chance to win Saturday - donkey687 - 11-02-2018
Here's Shaw's commentary on the game:
https://www.paloaltoonline.com/news/2018/11/01/stanford-washington-in-similar-pac-12-football-condition
[/quote]
That article stated that Toohill is out. Is that correct or was he referring to Toohill's injury earlier this year?
RE: Why I think we have a good chance to win Saturday - bbm233 - 11-02-2018
I live in Seattle and I don't expect the crowd to be as loud as you might assume. Most of the talk leading up to the game is how the season is a disappointment, especially the lack of improvement at the QB position. I wouldn't be surprised to hear some boos directed at Browning if he makes some bonehead plays. On the defensive side, I believe that the Huskies have been awful at getting QB pressure (only 4 sacks on the year???), and that there is a lot of concern about being able to stop Costello, A-W and Smith. Almost nobody talking about Love.
RE: Why I think we have a good chance to win Saturday - Hulk01 - 11-02-2018
Aside from an outstanding secondary, Washington just isn't impressive. Poor DL, weak OLBs, ordinary OL, two good but hurt running backs, weak at WR, and Browning.
Costello should have lots of time. Stanford has a decent chance, particularly against the spread.
RE: Why I think we have a good chance to win Saturday - CTcard - 11-02-2018
(11-02-2018, 10:41 AM)bbm233 Wrote: On the defensive side, I believe that the Huskies have been awful at getting QB pressure (only 4 sacks on the year???), and that there is a lot of concern about being able to stop Costello, A-W and Smith. Almost nobody talking about Love.
UW has 14 sacks on the year, or just over 1.5 per game. They had 4 last week against cal - which may mean that they are rounding into form or may mean that cal is really bad at protecting the QB.
UW has also allowed 14 sacks.
By contrast, Stanford has managed 20 sacks (2.5 per game) and allowed 16.
While their sack rate isn't high, I am not sure if their DL is weak. They are second to Utah in run defense by both yds/gm and yds/carry. That is typically primarily due to the DL.
Overall, UW is second in the Pac in most total defense stats to Utah. In pass efficiency defense UW is #3 in the conference to Utah's #1 (cal #2). Interestingly, Stanford's highest yardage output on the season in the pass game was against Utah (in yds/game - only third best in yds/attempt).
RE: Why I think we have a good chance to win Saturday - Snorlax94 - 11-02-2018
(11-02-2018, 02:35 PM)CTcard Wrote: Overall, UW is second in the Pac in most total defense stats to Utah. In pass efficiency defense UW is #3 in the conference to Utah's #1 (cal #2). Interestingly, Stanford's highest yardage output on the season in the pass game was against Utah (in yds/game - only third best in yds/attempt).Part of the inconsistency could be due to the specific matchups for a particular game. For example, my recollection is that, while excellent, Washington’s dbs are generally under 6’ tall. But I’d imagine more important will be how well the team plays in the rain, and (sadly) whether the refs call interference if/when the dbacks resort to tackling our receivers.
RE: Why I think we have a good chance to win Saturday - CTcard - 11-02-2018
(11-02-2018, 02:50 PM)Snorlax94 Wrote: my recollection is that, while excellent, Washington’s dbs are generally under 6’ tall. But I’d imagine more important will be how well the team plays in the rain, and (sadly) whether the refs call interference if/when the dbacks resort to tackling our receivers.
UW's official depth chart lists a nickel base defense.
Their backfield runs CB = 6'1'', 5'11'', 5'8''; S = 6'1'', 6'0''.
Not tiny outside of Myles Bryant (5'8''), but generally not as tall as our guys.
Agree about performance in the rain. My memory has Stanford for years now performing horrendously in bad weather. Yikes.
RE: Why I think we have a good chance to win Saturday - Hulk01 - 11-02-2018
Football Outsiders ranks Washington's DL 97th (of 130 D1 teams) overall. I was about to suggest that they may be penalizing the Huskies for playing a game-long nickel, but Washington State plays one, too, and their DL ranks significantly higher than UWs.
RE: Why I think we have a good chance to win Saturday - donkey687 - 11-02-2018
(11-02-2018, 02:50 PM)Snorlax94 Wrote:UW stats benefit from playing the two worst offenses in the conference (Cal and UCLA) while we haven't played either of those weak offenses yet. It should be a low scoring game.(11-02-2018, 02:35 PM)CTcard Wrote: Overall, UW is second in the Pac in most total defense stats to Utah. In pass efficiency defense UW is #3 in the conference to Utah's #1 (cal #2). Interestingly, Stanford's highest yardage output on the season in the pass game was against Utah (in yds/game - only third best in yds/attempt).Part of the inconsistency could be due to the specific matchups for a particular game. For example, my recollection is that, while excellent, Washington’s dbs are generally under 6’ tall. But I’d imagine more important will be how well the team plays in the rain, and (sadly) whether the refs call interference if/when the dbacks resort to tackling our receivers.
RE: Why I think we have a good chance to win Saturday - 81alum - 11-02-2018
(11-02-2018, 03:37 PM)donkey687 Wrote:How is their punter? Ours is excellent :)(11-02-2018, 02:50 PM)Snorlax94 Wrote:UW stats benefit from playing the two worst offenses in the conference (Cal and UCLA) while we haven't played either of those weak offenses yet. It should be a low scoring game.(11-02-2018, 02:35 PM)CTcard Wrote: Overall, UW is second in the Pac in most total defense stats to Utah. In pass efficiency defense UW is #3 in the conference to Utah's #1 (cal #2). Interestingly, Stanford's highest yardage output on the season in the pass game was against Utah (in yds/game - only third best in yds/attempt).Part of the inconsistency could be due to the specific matchups for a particular game. For example, my recollection is that, while excellent, Washington’s dbs are generally under 6’ tall. But I’d imagine more important will be how well the team plays in the rain, and (sadly) whether the refs call interference if/when the dbacks resort to tackling our receivers.
RE: Why I think we have a good chance to win Saturday - Goose - 11-02-2018
(11-02-2018, 03:44 PM)81alum Wrote: How is their punter? Ours is excellent :)How good is our punter in the rain? I have no idea, but a wet ball often doesn't travel too well. Same for both teams, but...
RE: Why I think we have a good chance to win Saturday - thunder_chik - 11-02-2018
I just have an odd feeling (and I'm a "thinker" type) that special teams performance will be the key to us winning this game...
RE: Why I think we have a good chance to win Saturday - Austroturf - 11-03-2018
The all-time series between Stanford and Washington is currently tied at 42-42-4. If we win today, it will be Stanford's first lead in the series since 1991 (yes, that's 27 years). Since 2000, Stanford leads the series 10-5 and has won four of the last five. BUT: Washington's largest victory ever came two years ago (44-6). Stanford's largest victory in the series is also relatively recent: 65-21 in 2011.
I think we have a shot to win if: 1) we win the turnover battle and 2) the defense shows up. If not, I see the Dawgs covering the spread and grinding out a workmanlike victory of around 10 points. Seattle is a tough place to play; and the Huskies don't lose very often at home (last loss in Husky stadium was to USC in 2016).
What I would like to see on Saturday: Stanford over Washington (obviously), Cal over Wazzu and Utah over ASU. If this happens, we would still have an outside shot at the north title and a rematch with Utah in the CCG. Maybe Cal's defense can come up big and stuff Minshew in Pullman. Then we just need to win out and hope the Dawgs deliver in the Apple Cup (like they have the last five years in a row). It's crunch time; and we need a ton of outside help after our near-miss last Saturday. Do I expect any of this? Not really. But I also did not expect to see Utah leading the south in sovereign fashion nor did I expect the Bears to upset the Huskies. Anything is possible.