Shaw: "I learned a lot this year" - Printable Version
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Shaw: "I learned a lot this year" - cctop - 11-25-2018
Quote from David Shaw in the SF Chronicle's article on the UCLA game:
“I learned a lot this year,” run-oriented head coach David Shaw said. “One thing is apparently my comfort level doesn’t matter. I haven’t been comfortable all year. We’ve been an enigma, but the one thing that’s been constant is big plays in the passing game.”
https://www.sfgate.com/collegesports/article/Tight-end-Kaden-Smith-is-out-for-Stanford-against-13418528.php
lex24 - lex24 - 11-25-2018
He’s had to change his offensive philosophy. I’m sure he doesn’t like it. I don’t like it. It means they no longer can do what made them successful. Stanford has the second highest pass run ratio in Pac 12. Not by choice. But because they had to. Shaw adjusted. Perhaps a game or so later than all us folks sitting on our butts second guessing thought he should have.
But they have actually been pretty good offensively given the fact that they can’t run the ball. Kudos to Tavita and Shaw for making the adjustment. Hopefully next year they can get back to power football. But I kind of doubt it.
RE: lex24 - CTcard - 11-26-2018
(11-25-2018, 11:37 PM)lex24 Wrote: He’s had to change his offensive philosophy. I’m sure he doesn’t like it. I don’t like it.
I hate it.
I don't like a team that can't run the ball. I don't like a team that feels it has to pass on third and 1, that can't run the ball out of their own end zone, that seems to have little hope of running the clock with 5:00 left.
I don't like the variability that comes from too heavy reliance on the pass game - and the negative plays that come with.
I also don't like team that can't stop anyone, but that's another issue.
Quote:Hopefully next year they can get back to power football. But I kind of doubt it.
I might agree with the doubting, but that is a statement that needs more comment.
One of the biggest issues is what went wrong in the run game this year.
A little bit is Love not being 100%, but far more so is the disappearance of run blocking by the OL. As many have noted, that has been building a bit over the last few years, but this year was a completely different beast. To the extent it was heavily due to injuries (and there were a ton of injuries - before the season as much as during), then that could presumably improve.
If we have a starting OL of Little, Hamilton, Dalman, Herbig, Sarell then that should be plenty to work with. (Powell seems next up if Herbig is gone.) Good or bad, it's not clear to me that group will necessarily be better at pass blocking than run blocking. Actually, that's not quite true. I expect them to be better at pass blocking merely because they are this year. Many of the individuals will be the same, and as far as we know so far so will the coaches. But, it's not clear they shouldn't be able to be at least middling at run blocking - and middling would make this offense really good.
RE: lex24 - JPR36 - 11-26-2018
(11-26-2018, 12:33 AM)CTcard Wrote:(11-25-2018, 11:37 PM)lex24 Wrote: He’s had to change his offensive philosophy. I’m sure he doesn’t like it. I don’t like it.
I hate it.
I don't like a team that can't run the ball. I don't like a team that feels it has to pass on third and 1, that can't run the ball out of their own end zone, that seems to have little hope of running the clock with 5:00 left.
I don't like the variability that comes from too heavy reliance on the pass game - and the negative plays that come with.
I also don't like team that can't stop anyone, but that's another issue.
Quote:Hopefully next year they can get back to power football. But I kind of doubt it.
I might agree with the doubting, but that is a statement that needs more comment.
One of the biggest issues is what went wrong in the run game this year.
A little bit is Love not being 100%, but far more so is the disappearance of run blocking by the OL. As many have noted, that has been building a bit over the last few years, but this year was a completely different beast. To the extent it was heavily due to injuries (and there were a ton of injuries - before the season as much as during), then that could presumably improve.
If we have a starting OL of Little, Hamilton, Dalman, Herbig, Sarell then that should be plenty to work with. (Powell seems next up if Herbig is gone.) Good or bad, it's not clear to me that group will necessarily be better at pass blocking than run blocking. Actually, that's not quite true. I expect them to be better at pass blocking merely because they are this year. Many of the individuals will be the same, and as far as we know so far so will the coaches. But, it's not clear they shouldn't be able to be at least middling at run blocking - and middling would make this offense really good.
With Costello and the group of receivers we had this year (and will have next year) I can see throwing the ball a lot. You also have to be able to run, though, and this year we couldn't. Assuming they can stay healthy the line we will have next year would seem to have the talent to be able to do it.
Will the defense be better? Hopefully. Presumably the coaches will be able to do something about the poor tackling in the defensive backfield, which seemed to be the source of a lot of our problems this year.
RE: Shaw: "I learned a lot this year" - Hurlburt88 - 11-26-2018
Maybe Chris Marinelli is available to be our “attitude coach”
RE: Shaw: "I learned a lot this year" - OutsiderFan - 11-26-2018
This is what I have been waiting for with Shaw. My greatest complaint about him has been that he has too often gone with what makes him comfortable as opposed to rolling the dice on growth that can happen when being uncomfortable. In a hyper-competitive enterprise like major college football, you have to reinvent yourself and change things up, and you must be willing to roll the dice on things you'd rather not do.
The greatest manifestation of this has been the pig-headed insistence on jumbo sets to run dives into a pile of bodies on 3rd and 4th and 1. These are the greatest opportunities for big plays that exist in football, and Shaw has been more comfortable maintaining possession that making them.
This season may not have gone the way he wanted, but if Shaw learns its lessons, he has the potential to be a better coach as a result. My hope is he will assess other places in the program where he might grow from discomfort, like replacing Lance Anderson as DC. Or maybe failing that, doing what Wilcox has done, simplify the offense a bit so they can devote more practice time to tackling*. Implement some RPOs into the offense so when the defense is charging to stop the run, make them pay by throwing a pass out of what was called a run. This may be hard for Shaw to do, but these are the things that he must do to grow and get better.
*Wilcox doesn't just have the defense participate in tackling drills. Everyone on the team participates in what he calls "team tackle" period. When a leader emphasizes something as important, that's what his charges will prioritize. Wilcox is building his program on tackling. He may sacrifice some offensive efficiency due to taking more practice time for tackling than say reps on offense, but everything is a trade-off. Cal has become one of the best defenses in the Pac-12 in large measure due to its emphasis on tackling.
RE: Shaw: "I learned a lot this year" - stupac2 - 11-26-2018
The thing is that this line can run block, they just can't do it consistently. More often than not what happens is one guy (or more) makes a mental error and it blows up the play. The problem on that safety wasn't that we got no push, it was that we had two on two and they both blocked the same guy. I obviously haven't done a large film study on this, but that's my distinct impression. If that's the case, then fixing it shouldn't be hard, in theory, better health and better coaching should go a long way.
I also wouldn't be surprised if, given an off-season to really look at what it takes to be a team that passes to open up the run instead of the opposite, we can scheme some better runs. A lot of our problems with the "turtling" come from running up the gut 3 times, but there are other ways to do it, things we used to do somewhat frequently but have kinda abandoned (jet motion) and some we do but not enough (QB keeping on read option). I bet adding more RPO (which afaik we don't run at all) would help too.
Anyway, we'll see. In theory we have the pieces for a top-5 offense next year. If that can come together and if the defense can get back to "not a liability" we could be in for a special year. We'll see.
RE: Shaw: "I learned a lot this year" - winflop - 11-26-2018
I'm calling BS on this.
He said the same kind of thing after the Wazzu loss last year, but showed little evidence of it until the last couple of games. And in two of the last four games (ASU, UCLA) where we had a lead, when push came to shove in crunch time, he reverted to his old bad habits and put the outcome of those games at risk by relying on the two weakest elements of this team - running game and defense.
Even if I'm wrong, he still took too long to learn it this year. Why is it that a lot of fans and media recognized the strengths and weaknesses of this team weeks before he did?
There are many, many positives to Coach Shaw but recognizing what his team is - and isn't - and adjusting gameplans and playcalling to those strengths and weaknesses is not one of them. You go to battle with the army you have, not the one you want to have. I maintain that had he done so this team would be 9-2 not 7-4. You also hire great people to cover your weak spots, and I think that neither Pritchard nor Carberry have done him any favors here and both were bad hires that need to be replaced this offseason.
RE: Shaw: "I learned a lot this year" - BobK - 11-26-2018
11 games of non run blocking is proof we cannot run block. Missed assignments in game 11 is just bad. Coaching and players to blame. And recruiting. With our injuries still several non Frosh seldom played in our 5 man front.
Hall and Burkett graduate. Herbig probably moves on. Wilson and Chaffin could grad transfer to play and get a grad degree while on a scholarship
Changes need to be made. And we need that brobdingnagian commit.
As to tackling, thinking we don’t really coach or emphasize is ok not true as I try to be civil. Listen to the interviews with Lance
brobdingnagian season by Costello and our awesome wide receivers. Really incredible. As to coaching I give brobdingnagian congrats to Kennedy and Tavita.
Meanwhile we are averaging 30 points per game.
RE: Shaw: "I learned a lot this year" - CTcard - 11-26-2018
(11-26-2018, 09:49 AM)stupac2 Wrote: The problem on that safety wasn't that we got no push, it was that we had two on two and they both blocked the same guy.
I started writing about this as a reply to BC's response to the Garvin quotations. However, doing actual work got in the way.
I don't have the tape in front of me, but on that particular play we had three to block two on the right side of the line. Hall and the TE (who might have been an extra OL at the TE position) double teamed the guy to Hall's right. Meanwhile, Powell looked to his left, saw Burkett had the NT and rushed out to the second level to block (more or less) the LB. Andrus, who made the play, was lined up between Hall and Powell - just standing there, not jumping around or anything. It wasn't clear to me who got the blocking-read wrong, though kind of looked to me as if it were Powell (the announcers said Hall).
(11-26-2018, 09:49 AM)stupac2 Wrote: I obviously haven't done a large film study on this, but that's my distinct impression. If that's the case, then fixing it shouldn't be hard, in theory, better health and better coaching should go a long way.
It seems to me that the pass blocking has been a mess when guys blow their assignments and when they simply get pushed around. As you note, the path towards fixing things seems more straight forward for the former.
One development that has seemed odd to me and not generally effective is that on our jumbo short yardage packages we aren't just adding extra OL but are rearranging almost the entire personnel; or at least we were when we still had enough healthy bodies to swap out our personnel. Presumably the trade off is people who have trained for just these plays versus overall superior linemen.
(11-26-2018, 09:49 AM)stupac2 Wrote: I also wouldn't be surprised if, given an off-season to really look at what it takes to be a team that passes to open up the run instead of the opposite, we can scheme some better runs.
winflop Wrote:There are many, many positives to Coach Shaw but recognizing what his team is - and isn't - and adjusting gameplans and playcalling to those strengths and weaknesses is not one of them.
I agree that at least a couple of times the coaching staff has not done a good job recognizing what are the strengths and weaknesses of their team as the season approaches. [I've harped on 2014, and early 2015, a lot.]
While I think the offensive coaching staff did a good job reconstructing the offense on the go mid-season, it has holes largely because the base set of plays appear to be for a pass game that complements a run-first offense rather than the other way around. It's not surprising that the coaches would have expected that to be the nature of our offense, but they are the ones watching the players in practice every day and it is an imperative that they get this correct.
(11-26-2018, 09:49 AM)stupac2 Wrote: Anyway, we'll see. In theory we have the pieces for a top-5 offense next year. If that can come together and if the defense can get back to "not a liability" we could be in for a special year. We'll see.
That's certainly the optimistic take.
The OL is the second most important piece of the offense. With its performance this season, and likely turnover for next, it has a ways to go to support any theory of a top 5 offense. I don't see it as impossible, just a lot of development.
RE: Shaw: "I learned a lot this year" - stupac2 - 11-26-2018
(11-26-2018, 10:38 AM)CTcard Wrote: That's certainly the optimistic take.
The OL is the second most important piece of the offense. With its performance this season, and likely turnover for next, it has a ways to go to support any theory of a top 5 offense. I don't see it as impossible, just a lot of development.
Having a top QB covers up a lot of issues. Plus I tend to think our issues are more due to injury than most want to admit. The turnover next year will be real, but if Herbig comes back and Sarrell returns from injury then we have a core of Little-Herbig-Sarrell that's going to be better than what most schools bring back. Of course there are some questions about everything, but every team out there has questions.
RE: Shaw: "I learned a lot this year" - Goose - 11-26-2018
(11-26-2018, 11:34 AM)stupac2 Wrote: Having a top QB covers up a lot of issues. Plus I tend to think our issues are more due to injury than most want to admit. The turnover next year will be real, but if Herbig comes back and Sarrell returns from injury then we have a core of Little-Herbig-Sarrell that's going to be better than what most schools bring back. Of course there are some questions about everything, but every team out there has questions.I really have no calibration on how much of our problems on the OL are due to injury. Injuries are sometimes a double whammy, in that you can't execute as effectively in the game due to the injury and you also can't practice as much, so you make more mental mistakes. That said, we have problems that are, IMHO, too big to be just injuries. We have, and have had since 2016, way too many cases of linemen not blocking anybody on a play. I will forever remember one of the last few plays of the 2017 WSU game when the right tackle is just standing there while a defender runs right by him on the inside. Seconds later, KJ is down and the tackle is still just standing there. It is one thing to get beat, but it is another to not even attempt to do anything. While one could argue some of these mistakes are caused by the player thinking he has a different assignment, if there is no other defender there, or if there is no back there to block the inside rush, you better do it or nothing else will matter.
There is something else going on here. So, the idea that this can be "fixed" is questionable unless/until somebody knows the root cause of the problem(s). I for sure don't, and I haven't heard anybody here articulate any explanation of these failures to engage that makes sense to me. It is one thing when two players block the same guy by mistake. That is bad but you can see how that happens and address it. It is another thing when some player blocks nobody.
RE: Shaw: "I learned a lot this year" - BostonCard - 11-26-2018
(11-26-2018, 10:05 AM)winflop Wrote: I'm calling BS on this.
He said the same kind of thing after the Wazzu loss last year, but showed little evidence of it until the last couple of games. And in two of the last four games (ASU, UCLA) where we had a lead, when push came to shove in crunch time, he reverted to his old bad habits and put the outcome of those games at risk by relying on the two weakest elements of this team - running game and defense.
Even if I'm wrong, he still took too long to learn it this year. Why is it that a lot of fans and media recognized the strengths and weaknesses of this team weeks before he did?
There are many, many positives to Coach Shaw but recognizing what his team is - and isn't - and adjusting gameplans and playcalling to those strengths and weaknesses is not one of them. You go to battle with the army you have, not the one you want to have. I maintain that had he done so this team would be 9-2 not 7-4. You also hire great people to cover your weak spots, and I think that neither Pritchard nor Carberry have done him any favors here and both were bad hires that need to be replaced this offseason.
What do you mean? Despite every expectation we’d be a run-first team, we have been a pass first team, and probably the most pass dependent team south of WSU. It is clear that this is not Shaw’s preference, but he still did it. Are you suggesting we never run the ball? Or is the objection that on specific instances with a lead late in the game we tried to run? I am very confused by allegations that Shaw was being stubborn. If anything, he has shown a remarkable amount of flexibility and much more than a typical coach might display, especially doing it in the middle of the season (it would have been one thing to do so after this season, with Costello coming back and Love graduating). Could you ever imagine, for example, Leach becoming a run-first coach?
My concern is much less about the offense, which is clearly a strength this year; I worry about figuring out how to stop other teams from scoring.
BC
RE: Shaw: "I learned a lot this year" - winflop - 11-26-2018
BC,
For the first seven games of the season, ShawVitaBerry continued to try to have a run-first offense, especially in the first half. There were a couple of exceptions but in those cases it was because they went to more 50/50-60/40 after halftime. It should have been obvious after the Oregon game that this approach wasn't going to work - run heavy in the first half was ineffective and going more pass heavy in the second half was the reason they won (combined with Oregon's complete collapse). Seven games is far too long to figure out what you're good and not good at. Also, this isn't the first year that Shaw has taken too long to figure this out.
In the two more recent games where we've had a late lead in a tight game (ASU, UCLA) they have turtled with a slim lead and put the game at risk instead of sticking with what was working and putting the hammer down. I understand this can be a philosophical decision - one with which I vehemently disagree. I'm not buying into the argument that we didn't lose either game - the ends don't justify the means when you had every opportunity to put the game out of reach, reduce the injury risk to your starters (important when you have a thin bench), and get some younger guys valuable game experience.
I think Shaw would benefit greatly from having an OC who is not part of his coaching tree and to whom playcalling duties are given. Will it happen? Highly unlikely. But I think it should.
RE: Shaw: "I learned a lot this year" - CTcard - 11-26-2018
(11-26-2018, 11:34 AM)stupac2 Wrote: Having a top QB covers up a lot of issues.
Of course it does, which is why I said that the OL was the second most important group on offense.
(11-26-2018, 11:34 AM)stupac2 Wrote: Plus I tend to think our issues are more due to injury than most want to admit. The turnover next year will be real, but if Herbig comes back and Sarrell returns from injury then we have a core of Little-Herbig-Sarrell that's going to be better than what most schools bring back.
I certainly hold out the possibility that injuries were by far the major source of our OL problems. It's the answer I like the best, since it seems the easiest to address. Goose obviously feels that isn't the major part of the story. I don't think it is everything, but also don't feel like I know enough information to parse further.
The returning starters might be even better than you suggest. I think a group of starters that includes Little - Hamilton - Dalman - Herbig - Sarell would be very good raw talent to work with. Depth will be thin, but in good years we don't crank though so many linemen.
But there is a long way to go from current run blocking performance to good run blocking, and even to middling blocking. The good news is that even middling run blocking could make the overall offense very good.
RE: Shaw: "I learned a lot this year" - terry - 11-26-2018
I don't know what goes on in practice or the film room. But based on performance, I have to wonder whether Carberry is the right guy for the job.
RE: Shaw: "I learned a lot this year" - OutsiderFan - 11-26-2018
(11-26-2018, 01:51 PM)winflop Wrote: BC,
For the first seven games of the season, ShawVitaBerry continued to try to have a run-first offense, especially in the first half. There were a couple of exceptions but in those cases it was because they went to more 50/50-60/40 after halftime. It should have been obvious after the Oregon game that this approach wasn't going to work - run heavy in the first half was ineffective and going more pass heavy in the second half was the reason they won (combined with Oregon's complete collapse). Seven games is far too long to figure out what you're good and not good at. Also, this isn't the first year that Shaw has taken too long to figure this out.
In the two more recent games where we've had a late lead in a tight game (ASU, UCLA) they have turtled with a slim lead and put the game at risk instead of sticking with what was working and putting the hammer down. I understand this can be a philosophical decision - one with which I vehemently disagree. I'm not buying into the argument that we didn't lose either game - the ends don't justify the means when you had every opportunity to put the game out of reach, reduce the injury risk to your starters (important when you have a thin bench), and get some younger guys valuable game experience.
I think Shaw would benefit greatly from having an OC who is not part of his coaching tree and to whom playcalling duties are given. Will it happen? Highly unlikely. But I think it should.
The gist here is correct, IMO. Yes, there has been more passing, but it hasn't happened soon enough in games, and went away too soon when it was working later in games. Shaw has in general been of a this way or that way, as opposed to both, mindset while calling plays. The passing has worked more effectively, but that doesn't mean a more balanced approach wouldn't have extracted more running success.
RE: Shaw: "I learned a lot this year" - CTcard - 11-26-2018
(11-26-2018, 01:51 PM)winflop Wrote: BC,
For the first seven games of the season, ShawVitaBerry continued to try to have a run-first offense, especially in the first half. There were a couple of exceptions but in those cases it was because they went to more 50/50-60/40 after halftime. It should have been obvious after the Oregon game that this approach wasn't going to work - run heavy in the first half was ineffective and going more pass heavy in the second half was the reason they won (combined with Oregon's complete collapse).
I don't think that is a particularly good description of what happened.
Given your reference, I started this count with the Oregon game. It covers the tough 5 game stretch where we had our four losses. The ASU win was sprinkled into the middle of those. Here are the first half pass/run breakdowns.*
opponent run pass %pass
UO 14 16 53
und 13 19 59
Utah 14 25 64
ASU 19 24 56
WSU 12 28 70
UW 7 26 79
What you may have been thinking about was that there was some effort to keep running the ball through the first two series vs. und, Utah, and UW; but after those first two series we pretty much quit trying to run at all.
[ASU was a little more complicated. We sprinkled the run game throughout - with some success, then ran the ball poorly while trying to close out the game.]
* These are not quite official numbers. I counted sacks and scrambles as pass plays, because that was what was called. I also counted plays with penalties - as something like a PI penalty significantly affects the course of a drive, even if that is not an official play.
RE: Shaw: "I learned a lot this year" - BostonCard - 11-26-2018
The data doesn't support your hypothesis. There have only been two games this year where we ran more often than we passed; USC and ASU, both games in which we led into the second half and were running to eat up clock. Among the first seven games of the season, we passed 60% of the time against Utah, which is a greater proportion than we passed against UCLA or Oregon State. Out of our first seven games, we passed more than we ran in five of them.
In contrast, last year, we had three games all year where we passed more than we rushed. Generally, yes, we have passed more of late, but the difference pails in comparison to the difference between last year and this year.
BC
(11-26-2018, 03:10 PM)CTcard Wrote: I don't think that is a particularly good description of what happened.
Given your reference, I started this count with the Oregon game. It covers the tough 5 game stretch where we had our four losses. The ASU win was sprinkled into the middle of those. Here are the first half pass/run breakdowns.*
opponent run pass %pass
UO 14 16 53
und 13 19 59
Utah 14 25 64
ASU 19 24 56
WSU 12 28 70
UW 7 26 79
What you may have been thinking about was that there was some effort to keep running the ball through the first two series vs. und, Utah, and UW; but after those first two series we pretty much quit trying to run at all.
[ASU was a little more complicated. We sprinkled the run game throughout - with some success, then ran the ball poorly while trying to close out the game.]
* These are not quite official numbers. I counted sacks and scrambles as pass plays, because that was what was called. I also counted plays with penalties - as something like a PI penalty significantly affects the course of a drive, even if that is not an official play.
I should just delete my own post, as this is more comprehensive than the data I compiled, and more pertinent since it doesn't take the effect of playing with the lead or playing from behind.
BC
RE: Shaw: "I learned a lot this year" - OutsiderFan - 11-26-2018
When the difference between winning and losing is so thin, "it just happened on two series" is enough to cost Stanford games given the weakness of the defense. The cumulative data tells one story. The distribution of the run/pass ratio tells another.
I can run it 15 times straight and then pass it 15 straight times and the data says the offense is balanced. But that is not a balanced offense. It's doing one thing trying to produce, and then switching to something else trying to produce.
winflop is absolutely correct, not necessarily from a gross data from the games standpoint, but from a how the decisions impacted the competition on the field one.