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Herbig going pro - StanfordMatt - 12-19-2018

The suspense is over. Herbig officially announces that he is forgoing his senior year to go pro. I’m no draft expert but it’s hard for me to believe that anyone from our offensive line should be leaving early considering how terrible they were as a unit. That being said, I wish him the best.

https://twitter.com/nate_herbig/status/1075585866695827456?s=21

RE: Herbig going pro - OutsiderFan - 12-19-2018

He is projected as a day 2 NFL pick.

RE: Herbig going pro - Goose - 12-19-2018

(12-19-2018, 08:39 PM)StanfordMatt Wrote:  The suspense is over. Herbig officially announces that he is forgoing his senior year to go pro. I’m no draft expert but it’s hard for me to believe that anyone from our offensive line should be leaving early considering how terrible they were as a unit. That being said, I wish him the best.

https://twitter.com/nate_herbig/status/1075585866695827456?s=21
Well, if he was going, he should say so, which he finally has done. We all wish him well. However, I really don't see what makes him stand out over a lot of other guys that will be available. I guess he has looked at it and decide this makes sense. I hope he is correct.

RE: Herbig going pro - winflop - 12-19-2018

I wish him well but like McCaffrey I will always have a bitter taste in my mouth about him not finishing the season.

RE: Herbig going pro - TinderForMidgets - 12-19-2018

(12-19-2018, 09:45 PM)winflop Wrote:  I wish him well but like McCaffrey I will always have a bitter taste in my mouth about him not finishing the season.

This thread is at least 1 hour old and I haven't heard a HE-BIG pun. I am deeply disappointed.

RE: Herbig going pro - needle - 12-19-2018

Good luck to Nate. Wish he was returning, but only time will tell if he's ready for the NFL. I happen to think he has a good chance for a long career as a pro.

RE: Herbig going pro - cardcrimson - 12-19-2018

Not trying to throw shade, but if he's projected as a second day guy and is bailing, is this an indictment on the program and the prospects for next year?

Love's draft position would have been much higher had he forgone his final year. Wonder if he has regrets. Sure, he wanted another year with his Stanford brethren, but there has to be some "what ifs".

RE: Herbig going pro - TinderForMidgets - 12-19-2018

(12-19-2018, 10:22 PM)cardcrimson Wrote:  Not trying to throw shade, but if he's projected as a second day guy and is bailing, is this an indictment on the program and the prospects for next year?

Love's draft position would have been much higher had he forgone his final year. Wonder if he has regrets. Sure, he wanted another year with his Stanford brethren, but there has to be some "what ifs".

Well we've seen before. All programs have juniors that leave early.

RE: Herbig going pro - cardcrimson - 12-19-2018

(12-19-2018, 10:24 PM)TanaciousD Wrote:  
(12-19-2018, 10:22 PM)cardcrimson Wrote:  Not trying to throw shade, but if he's projected as a second day guy and is bailing, is this an indictment on the program and the prospects for next year?

Love's draft position would have been much higher had he forgone his final year. Wonder if he has regrets. Sure, he wanted another year with his Stanford brethren, but there has to be some "what ifs".

Well we've seen before. All programs have juniors that leave early.

As a projected second or third round guy? Seems a bit out of the norm for us. . . .But, I wish him the best of course, just curious as to the decision making criteria. . . .

RE: Herbig going pro - TinderForMidgets - 12-19-2018

(12-19-2018, 10:38 PM)cardcrimson Wrote:  
(12-19-2018, 10:24 PM)TanaciousD Wrote:  
(12-19-2018, 10:22 PM)cardcrimson Wrote:  Not trying to throw shade, but if he's projected as a second day guy and is bailing, is this an indictment on the program and the prospects for next year?

Love's draft position would have been much higher had he forgone his final year. Wonder if he has regrets. Sure, he wanted another year with his Stanford brethren, but there has to be some "what ifs".

Well we've seen before. All programs have juniors that leave early.

As a projected second or third round guy? Seems a bit out of the norm for us. . . .But, I wish him the best of course, just curious as to the decision making criteria. . . .

He was injured recently - might have made him realize he didn't want to risk his NFL millions.

RE: Herbig going pro - StanfordMatt - 12-19-2018

(12-19-2018, 10:38 PM)cardcrimson Wrote:  
(12-19-2018, 10:24 PM)TanaciousD Wrote:  
(12-19-2018, 10:22 PM)cardcrimson Wrote:  Not trying to throw shade, but if he's projected as a second day guy and is bailing, is this an indictment on the program and the prospects for next year?

Love's draft position would have been much higher had he forgone his final year. Wonder if he has regrets. Sure, he wanted another year with his Stanford brethren, but there has to be some "what ifs".

Well we've seen before. All programs have juniors that leave early.

As a projected second or third round guy? Seems a bit out of the norm for us. . . .But, I wish him the best of course, just curious as to the decision making criteria. . . .

We’ve had a lot of DBs leave after their junior year recently. Alex Carter and Justin Reid were both drafted in the 3rd round. The strangest decision in my opinion still belongs to Meeks who wasn’t drafted at all and signed as a free agent with the Jaguars.

RE: Herbig going pro - SamuelMcF - 12-19-2018

(12-19-2018, 10:47 PM)StanfordMatt Wrote:  We’ve had a lot of DBs leave after their junior year recently. Alex Carter and Justin Reid were both drafted in the 3rd round. The strangest decision in my opinion still belongs to Meeks who wasn’t drafted at all and signed as a free agent with the Jaguars.
Meeks leaving is easily explainable in two words: Paulson Adebo

RE: Herbig going pro - Phogge - 12-19-2018

Herbig was better as a freshman. However I think there is more here than meets the eye.

RE: Herbig going pro - StanfordMatt - 12-19-2018

(12-19-2018, 10:57 PM)SamuelMcF Wrote:  
(12-19-2018, 10:47 PM)StanfordMatt Wrote:  We’ve had a lot of DBs leave after their junior year recently. Alex Carter and Justin Reid were both drafted in the 3rd round. The strangest decision in my opinion still belongs to Meeks who wasn’t drafted at all and signed as a free agent with the Jaguars.
Meeks leaving is easily explainable in two words: Paulson Adebo

Maybe but even if you assume that Meeks would’ve fallen behind Adebo and Holder on the depth chart at CB, there still would’ve been plenty of snaps for him at nickel or even converting to safety. Not to mention, if you can’t beat out a redshirt freshman, how do you expect to beat out a group of NFL players. I just know that we sure could’ve used Meeks this year given our lack of depth and injuries in the secondary.

RE: Herbig going pro - JohnR34231 - 12-20-2018

(12-19-2018, 10:39 PM)TanaciousD Wrote:  
(12-19-2018, 10:38 PM)cardcrimson Wrote:  
(12-19-2018, 10:24 PM)TanaciousD Wrote:  
(12-19-2018, 10:22 PM)cardcrimson Wrote:  Not trying to throw shade, but if he's projected as a second day guy and is bailing, is this an indictment on the program and the prospects for next year?

Love's draft position would have been much higher had he forgone his final year. Wonder if he has regrets. Sure, he wanted another year with his Stanford brethren, but there has to be some "what ifs".

Well we've seen before. All programs have juniors that leave early.

As a projected second or third round guy? Seems a bit out of the norm for us. . . .But, I wish him the best of course, just curious as to the decision making criteria. . . .

He was injured recently - might have made him realize he didn't want to risk his NFL millions.

Wouldn't surprise me if that happens fairly frequently. Players get injured, start thinking the big bucks they hope to make in the NFL are in jeopardy, and decide to go as soon as they can,
You can always come back and get your degree.
I would be surprised if his decision was influenced by his thoughts on the team's prospects for next year.

RE: Herbig going pro - winflop - 12-20-2018

(12-20-2018, 04:08 AM)JohnR34231 Wrote:  You can always come back and get your degree.

Maybe this shouldn't be "always"

RE: Herbig going pro - ChicagoCard - 12-20-2018

Returning OL group next year seems to include these ten players, although Chaffin and Wilson may or may not be expected on the roster:

Little, LT
Dalman, G/C
Hamilton, G/T
Sarell, G/T
Wilson, G
Hattis, T
Powell, G/C
Stratford, G/T
Chaffin, C
Pease, T

Newcomers:

Branson Bragg, C
Walter Rouse, T
Barrett Miller, T
Jake Hornibrook, G
Drake Nugent, C

RE: Herbig going pro - OutsiderFan - 12-20-2018

Guess at preferred OL:

RT: Sarell
RG: Powell
C: Dalman 
LG: Hamilton
LT: Little

I'm a little more sold on Bragg as a Guard than Center, because Dalman has proven he can play the position, and Bragg's size will be more needed at Guard.  Plus, I actually like Nugent. He's a bit undersized, but plays with such an intensity and competitiveness that you can tell he has a crazy passion for football that usually makes guys pretty good players.

RE: Herbig going pro - BobK - 12-20-2018

Sorry don’t wish him luck at all. Good bye. More to this than meets the eye. Darn right. Injured? Oh?

Moving on

RE: Herbig going pro - ColoradoTree - 12-20-2018

FWIW, Matt Miller of Bleacher Report has Herbig as the #5 guard in the draft class, so Day 2 sounds about right, though precisely when on Day 2 will matter to Nate's wallet.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2805645-2019-nfl-draft-matt-millers-latest-big-board-rankings#slide7

In 2018 (a good year for guards, to be sure), the 5th guard was taken early in the 2nd round (the Colts taking Auburn's Braden Smith at #37 overall, who was drafted as a guard and is now their starter at right tackle only due to injuries, though he's done well enough there that they may just keep him there and call it good), and two more guards were taken after Smith in the second round.  (For our purposes, I'm counting players as guards who were drafted with the intent to play guard, whether or not they played guard in college. So, that includes Detroit's Frank Ragnow and Chicago's James Daniels, both college centers who projected as guards and were drafted as such, as well as Dallas's Connor Williams, who mostly played tackle in college but who most thought would be a guard.)

In 2017, by contrast, the first guard didn't come off the board until pick #38, early in the second round, and just two more guards went in the second round--both with the last two picks of the round.  One guard went in the third round, and the 5th guard didn't come off the board until early in the fourth round, at pick #115 overall.  

There is a vast gulf of money between #37 and #115, as Braden Smith signed a 4-year deal with a total value of $7.2M (including a $3.3M signing bonus). The #115 pick last year, Chicago's Joel Iyiegbuniwe, signed a 4-year deal with a total value of $3.1M (with just a $678,576 signing bonus). 

Not sure how evaluators see this year's guard class (or OL class in general) overall, but Miller's top 32 overall is primarily defensive prospects, and just two offensive linemen (both tackles).  By contrast, last year's final top 32 from Miller had three OTs, three OGs, and a center. That's just one guy's big board, of course, and the pre-draft process will see a lot of shifting, but at first blush, that suggests Herbig might expect to go later on Day 2 rather than earlier. 

(And that's without factoring in precisely what more there is than meets the eye, as Bob notes. If Shaw's reports aren't glowing, that certainly wouldn't help Herbig's draft stock.)