WBB: Where we are and more - Printable Version
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WBB: Where we are and more - BobK - 12-28-2018
https://pac-12.com/article/2018/12/27/michelle-smith-feature-team-team-pac-12-womens-basketball-preview-heading-league
Michelle always does a great job.
The season starts Sunday. Predictions? I’ll start
Oregon
Stanford
Oregon State
ASU
Cal
Utah
UCLA
USC
Colorado
Arizona
Washington
Washington State
RE: WBB: Where we are and more - bl82 - 12-28-2018
Michelle seems convinced that both Marta and Lexie will be back for the beginning of conference play. Do we have any confirmation on this or information on how these two are progressing in rehab and practices? I am particularly excited to have Lexie back.
Oregon
Stanford
Oregon State
Cal
ASU
USC
Utah
Colorado
Arizona
UCLA
Washington
Washington State
RE: WBB: Where we are and more - 81alum - 12-28-2018
Stanford
Oregon
Oregon State
ASU
Cal
Utah
USC
UCLA
Arizona
Colorado
Washington
Washington State
OK, perhaps I am too optimistic, but this is the year I think we get it done. We beat Oregon last year during the regular season, and I think we are much better this year and Oregon lacks the depth needed for a grueling Pac 12 season. Plus we have a structural advantage--we only play the Oregon schools once, and both at home, while they have to play each other. And Cal's resurgence helps to make the road trip to the Bay Area more difficult for the Oregon schools to prepare for.
RE: WBB: Where we are and more - Griffins78 - 12-29-2018
Anyone want two tickets for this Saturday’s game? Mid court lower section
RE: WBB: Where we are and more - triangle2 - 12-29-2018
Oregon
Stanford
Oregon State
ASU
Cal
USC
UCLA
Colorado
Utah
Washington
Arizona
WSU
The win-loss from non-conference games was quite unhelpful for the prediction game since so many Pac-12 teams had great non-conference records. I hadn't paid a lot of attention to the non-conference games throughout the conference, so I checked out RealTimeRPI to get more information about each team's non-conference schedule. It was an interesting deep dive. In very broad terms, RT-RPI strength of schedule rankings helped sort the conference by the quality of the schedules. When I look at SOS and win-loss, the conference sorts out into three categories at this point:
[Data from Friday, 12/28 21:18:02]
1. Teams who scheduled up, and won: Oregon (10-1, SOS 14), Stanford (9-1, SOS 17), Cal (9-1, SOS 12), ASU (9-2, SOS 40), Oregon State (?) (9-2, SOS 123)
All of these teams have quality wins and/or quality losses. Oregon played seven RPI top 100 teams, beating Syracuse (RPI 7), Buffalo (RPI 66), St. Mary's on the road (RPI 62), S. Dakota St. on the road (RPI 37), and Mississippi St. (RPI 12). That's a quality schedule. Cal played five RPI top 100 teams but their only top 50 RPI game was the loss to UConn. It's not clear to me how Cal will fare in the conference season. ASU lost 2 of 3 RPI top 50 games - competitive loss to Baylor and heartbreaking loss to Louisville. They beat Arkansas on the road (10-3, RPI 49).
I put Oregon State in this category since it seems evident that OSU tried to schedule up. Scott Rueck would not have predicted that South Carolina would be 7-4, RPI 67, or that Duke would be 6-4, RPI 47. The loss to Notre Dame was a slugfest with lousy officiating. OSU looks like a quality tournament team.
There are many encouraging signs for the team this year. I remember that when the Hull sisters signed, coaches up in Washington were saying, essentially, that we were getting two well-coached, high-IQ disciplined winners who already knew how to play at the high major level. That's what it looks like to me so far. They are delivering - both give the team so many options re: spacing, outside shooting, and ball movement. It's going to be a fun four years watching them. And they can shoot free throws.
2. Teams who scheduled up, and lost: UCLA (6-5, SOS 6), Washington (7-5, SOS 46), Washington State (4-7, SOS 53)
UCLA has a good win against Seton Hall (9-2, RPI 57) and competitive losses to Kentucky (12-1, RPI 20) and Indiana (12-0, RPI 10). But, they got blown out by N. Carolina on a neutral court and went 2-3 against RPI top 100 teams. They seem to be a team playing below their talent level.
You have to give Jody Winn at Washington some credit for scheduling a nasty schedule with a thin team. Seven RPI top 100 teams including Duke, Ohio St., and Mississippi State. Wins against Ohio St. and a somewhat weaker than expected Duke team are encouraging, but the 103-56 shellacking from Mississippi State at home suggests that they still have a long way to go. They are desperate for some quality big bodies.
WSU looks very bad. One RPI top 100 win and some bad losses, e.g. Wichita St. (7-5, RPI 218).
3. Teams who scheduled down, and won: USC (10-1, SOS 205), Colorado (10-1, SOS 195), Utah (11-0, SOS 315), and Arizona (10-1, SOS 268).
USC had seven games against teams with losing records, including six teams outside of RPI 150. They got blown out by Texas A&M on the road. Nearest to a quality win is Fresno St. (RPI 88). Trakh is a quality coach who seems to get his team playing well by the end of the season. But, USC is going to have a hard argument for a tournament bid if they don't book some wins against the top half of the conference.
I am often puzzled by Utah, Colorado at this point in the season in part because I tend not to see their non-conference games and because (by my memory), they seem to schedule down more often than not - leaving real questions to be sorted out in the conference portion of the season.
Colorado is a cipher again, with six wins against teams outside of the RPI 150. Their quality wins look suspect; a win against a not very good North Carolina team (8-5) and against Northern Colorado (5-4).
Utah's pre-conference schedule is even worse. Eight wins outside of RPI 200. Nine out of eleven teams don't have a winning record. In my view, they only have one quality win over BYU (8-3) at home.
Like Utah, Arizona's schedule featured nine teams without winning records. Their best win was against Idaho St. (4-4, RPI 59), and they lost to Loyola Marymount (7-5, RPI 114). I'll be really interested to see if McDonald can light it up during the conference season.
For me, biggest question marks are the teams with great records but stinky SOS, plus Cal. The first couple of conference games will give out a lot of information for the sorting hat.
RE: WBB: Where we are and more - BobK - 12-29-2018
World class post triangle. Thanks so much Great info here
I do like Utah and their coach thus my picks. But we shall see. League play starts tomorrow for 8 teams