What has happened to Pac-12 / Ticket prices for the CFP have plummeted (combined)

What has happened to Pac-12 / Ticket prices for the CFP have plummeted (combined) - Printable Version

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What has happened to Pac-12 / Ticket prices for the CFP have plummeted (combined) - lex24 - 01-01-2019

It wasn’t that many years ago that the Pac 12 was just behind the SEC. Now it’s by far the weakest of the Power 5. 7 Bowls. 3-4. 1-6 against the spread. And the 1 was because UW scored a late TD.

What has happened? Is it that their lousy TV contract and TV times has hurt recruiting on the West Coast?

RE: What has happened to Pac-12 - Farm93 - 01-01-2019

(01-01-2019, 08:06 PM)lex24 Wrote: It wasn’t that many years ago that the Pac 12 was just behind the SEC. Now it’s by far the weakest of the Power 5. 7 Bowls. 3-4. 1-6 against the spread. And the 1 was because UW scored a late TD.

What has happened? Is it that their lousy TV contract and TV times has hurt recruiting on the West Coast?

Meehhh,

The market has moved from a mass market audience where everyone was forced to pay a few dollars a year and the content providers and content subscribers really were not able or motivated to segment the market.

Today the market asks those that are most passionate to pay several dollars a month. The content providers are able to offer content exclusively for the most passionate (Conference Networks) and those that don't want to pay anything can opt out (cutting the cord).

The SEC resides in the land where football is nearly a religion. The Pac-12 resides in a land where there are a lot more cord cutters. the Pac-12 administrators may or may not be best, but the demographic and commercial trends are definitely stacked against the Pac-12.

The Pac-12 does have a meaningful climate advantage for recruits and the population in the West still is growing at a good clip. So there should be enough talent to keep the programs relatively competitive.

In the end, location, location, location is the key. The South has a better and deeper talent pool and a vastly more passionate group of citizens following the sport and the colleges and university football teams.

Thinking about my neighborhood in SoCal. I can easily drive a visitor to hundreds of semi-organized adult soccer games at local parks if they wanted to play soccer. I can drive a visitor to a few dozen informal adult cricket leagues, if that is their thing. I would be hard pressed to find even one community field with any form of adult touch, flag or full contact football.

I am very confident that wouldn't be the situation in SEC country.

Tennis anyone?

lex24 - lex24 - 01-01-2019

Interesting. Agree on the demographics. And I think that’s going to become even more pronounced given the injury factor

(01-01-2019, 08:55 PM)Farm93 Wrote:
(01-01-2019, 08:06 PM)lex24 Wrote: It wasn’t that many years ago that the Pac 12 was just behind the SEC. Now it’s by far the weakest of the Power 5. 7 Bowls. 3-4. 1-6 against the spread. And the 1 was because UW scored a late TD.

What has happened? Is it that their lousy TV contract and TV times has hurt recruiting on the West Coast?

Meehhh,

The market has moved from a mass market audience where everyone was forced to pay a few dollars a year and the content providers and content subscribers really were not able or motivated to segment the market.

Today the market asks those that are most passionate to pay several dollars a month. The content providers are able to offer content exclusively for the most passionate (Conference Networks) and those that don't want to pay anything can opt out (cutting the cord).

The SEC resides in the land where football is nearly a religion. The Pac-12 resides in a land where there are a lot more cord cutters. the Pac-12 administrators may or may not be best, but the demographic and commercial trends are definitely stacked against the Pac-12.

The Pac-12 does have a meaningful climate advantage for recruits and the population in the West still is growing at a good clip. So there should be enough talent to keep the programs relatively competitive.

In the end, location, location, location is the key. The South has a better and deeper talent pool and a vastly more passionate group of citizens following the sport and the colleges and university football teams.

Thinking about my neighborhood in SoCal. I can easily drive a visitor to hundreds of semi-organized adult soccer games at local parks if they wanted to play soccer. I can drive a visitor to a few dozen informal adult cricket leagues, if that is their thing. I would be hard pressed to find even one community field with any form of adult touch, flag or full contact football.

I am very confident that wouldn't be the situation in SEC country.

Tennis anyone?

RE: What has happened to Pac-12 - stupac2 - 01-02-2019

[Image: sports.png]

I mean, yes, there are structural reasons for the SEC to be the best conference (the south is where the best HS players are, by and large), but a lot of this is just trying to ascribe meaning to randomness.

RE: What has happened to Pac-12 - SF_Cardinal_Fan - 01-02-2019

Was it about a decade ago that there were significant changes to NCAA athletic conferences . eliminating some and enlarging others ?
Adding member schools to the Pac 12, SEC, Big Ten etc... from both a playing field and financial perspective, may have contributed today's "balance of power" concerns.

RE: What has happened to Pac-12 - Farm93 - 01-02-2019

Lex24,

I thought about including CTE, but that story has been well covered. CTE awareness will favor the programs that can recruit those not concerned about the long term (education, health, etc.) CTE awareness will impact Stanford before most D1 schools, but that is not a factor for Pac-12 bowls, TV revenue or on-field performance just yet.

More interesting for me right now is the impact of the NFL in LA.
10 years ago USC players would often note that they were the best football in LA.
Residents in SoCal knew it too. The fans at SC games reminded me a lot more of NFL fans than typical college crowds.
Lots of rather large corporate players wanted access to USC, UCLA and Pac-12 football since it was the top football in the USA's #2 market.

Now LA has two NFL teams.

Can't help but wonder if the strength of those two teams will negatively impact the appeal of the Pac-12 football as a promotional vehicle into the #2 media market and therefore the overall value of the Pac-12 football content.

RE: What has happened to Pac-12 - Farm93 - 01-02-2019

Best evidence this is not a "Pac-12" problem. This is at least a Bay Area or West Coast problem. Specifically, relatively little West Coast love for College Football.

https://www.sfgate.com/sports/annkillion/article/Does-anyone-care-about-the-National-Championship-13503627.php?t=13c0e7f1dd

If this game is anywhere east of the Mississippi I suspect demand would still be strong. As it stands, tickets are selling below face value. That's crazy.

Next few CFP Championship games will be either in or much closer to the SEC and ACC footprint, and I doubt any of them will have soft demand concerns.

RE: What has happened to Pac-12 - SF_Cardinal_Fan - 01-02-2019

(01-02-2019, 09:08 PM)Farm93 Wrote: Best evidence this is not a "Pac-12" problem. This is at least a Bay Area or West Coast problem. Specifically, relatively little West Coast love for College Football.

https://www.sfgate.com/sports/annkillion/article/Does-anyone-care-about-the-National-Championship-13503627.php?t=13c0e7f1dd

If this game is anywhere east of the Mississippi I suspect demand would still be strong. As it stands, tickets are selling below face value. That's crazy.

Next few CFP Championship games will be either in or much closer to the SEC and ACC footprint, and I doubt any of them will have soft demand concerns.

I remain disappointed that Levi Strauss (a San Francisco company) chose to endorse/sponsor/support the 49ers move to Santa Clara.

RE: What has happened to Pac-12 - 2006alum - 01-02-2019

(01-02-2019, 09:08 PM)Farm93 Wrote: Best evidence this is not a "Pac-12" problem. This is at least a Bay Area or West Coast problem. Specifically, relatively little West Coast love for College Football.

https://www.sfgate.com/sports/annkillion/article/Does-anyone-care-about-the-National-Championship-13503627.php?t=13c0e7f1dd

If this game is anywhere east of the Mississippi I suspect demand would still be strong. As it stands, tickets are selling below face value. That's crazy.

Next few CFP Championship games will be either in or much closer to the SEC and ACC footprint, and I doubt any of them will have soft demand concerns.

Interesting - and I am not surprised. I feel like I've been the gadfly broken record in all these threads seeking to blame Larry Scott for everything and accusing the PAC-12 corporate bigwigs of destroying the conference. IMHO, lack of population density, far greater opportunity cost vis-a-vis other fall/winter activities, and an intrinsically small fan base for college football all contribute more than Larry Scott does to our competitive disadvantages.

In the past, when media rights didn't drive AD budgets to anywhere near the same degree, rich colleges like Stanford, U$C, Cal and UCLA all had an edge on the Alabamas and Clemsons of the world because those universities couldn't fully capitalize on the market value of their product, and they're much poorer universities overall. Now they can commoditize their larger fan bases, and the arms race is on. I suspect in about 5-10 years, when the tide (crimson or otherwise) starts to go out because of CTE, cord-cutting, and the realization that the media deals are actually probably overblown relative to their real value, I think parity will return. Until then, start becoming a fan of volleyball, water polo, golf, soccer and tennis... or women's basketball.

And to that end: I continue to be befuddled by the PAC-12's demise in men's basketball, because the above conditions don't apply as much, and Stanford was a top ten team and selling out maples for every game as recently as the late 2000s, when NCAA $$$ was already flowing widely in men's basketball. Moreover, the fact that Title IX requires that women's teams share the bounty (or the scraps) from the media rights as the men's teams, coupled with the fact that the PAC-12 is now arguably the top women's basketball conference, suggests that the problem is neither with the PAC-12's structure/media rights/organization or with intrinsic interest in/passion for basketball on the best coast. Cal just set a new record of ~11,000 fans in attendance for a home game vs. UConn, and both OSU and Oregon are now averaging around 5,000 butts in seats per game in media markets 1/30th the size of the bay area. Washington was regularly selling out during the Kelsey Plum show. PAC-12 WBB has only gotten stronger every year since around 2010, so Darth Scott's death grip hasn't seemed to reach every corner of the rebellion quite yet, which also makes me think other forces are at work here.

RE: What has happened to Pac-12 - winflop - 01-03-2019

(01-02-2019, 09:08 PM)Farm93 Wrote: Best evidence this is not a "Pac-12" problem. This is at least a Bay Area or West Coast problem. Specifically, relatively little West Coast love for College Football.

https://www.sfgate.com/sports/annkillion/article/Does-anyone-care-about-the-National-Championship-13503627.php?t=13c0e7f1dd

If this game is anywhere east of the Mississippi I suspect demand would still be strong. As it stands, tickets are selling below face value. That's crazy.

Next few CFP Championship games will be either in or much closer to the SEC and ACC footprint, and I doubt any of them will have soft demand concerns.

I think there are a few other reasons why this game is going to be less well-attended:
1. Travel cost. Hotels in this area are ridiculous even when there is no major event going on.
2. Distance from schools. A lot of SEC & ACC fans travel by RV, in part to save on hotel costs. Too far for that.
3. Weather. Gametime weather will likely be in the 40s with a good chance of rain.
4. Traffic. It's bad on a normal evening commute.

These are also reasons why the Pac-12 CCG has done so poorly at Levi's - other than #2.

RE: What has happened to Pac-12 - Farm93 - 01-03-2019

(01-03-2019, 04:36 AM)winflop Wrote: I think there are a few other reasons why this game is going to be less well-attended:
1. Travel cost. Hotels in this area are ridiculous even when there is no major event going on.
2. Distance from schools. A lot of SEC & ACC fans travel by RV, in part to save on hotel costs. Too far for that.
3. Weather. Gametime weather will likely be in the 40s with a good chance of rain.
4. Traffic. It's bad on a normal evening commute.

These are also reasons why the Pac-12 CCG has done so poorly at Levi's - other than #2.

#1 and #2 are reasons why Bama and Clemson fans won't attend in super strong numbers. However, my thoughts turn to the recent NCAA WVB Championship. That game was sold out and the place was rocking. Sure, the locals thought UofMN would be in the house, but they still were there in big numbers. The region loves WVB even if their team is not in the title game.

This is the CFP Championship game. So we, the West, should be there. Not going to happen because the region just is not that passionate about college football. The 4 excuses noted are all real, but they merely highlight the actual problem. The region's passion for college football is very soft.

Next time there is a cry to blame Larry Scott about some difference between SEC and Pac-12 revenue just remember CFP Championship game 2019. This is THE showcase for college football. Our region, with all its wealth, is unwilling to pay face value for tickets. The Pac-12 footprint excuses always are available, but they only help explain why the region is less valuable in this new game of TV viewing eyeballs.

RE: What has happened to Pac-12 - OutsiderFan - 01-03-2019

Leave it to Stanford fans to figure out the reality.

While idiot fans from Washington, Oregon, Cal, and other Pac-12 schools are signing petitions calling for Larry Scott to be fired, the reality is you could have Jim Delaney at the helm and the Pac-12 has built-in weaknesses that make it less valuable.

At least when it comes to Stanford being able to adapt and evolve to be more competitive in the modern football marketplace, there is some there there, in large measure because Stanford recruits nationally.

But the Pac-12 as a conference has significant structural disadvantages that it simply isn't going to overcome. It was downright embarrassing how weak the attendance was for the Pac-12 Championship Game. If fans aren't showing for the region's football showcase event, why would they show to see Alabama and Clemson, schools in different regions that at some times feel like different countries from California, and certainly the Bay Area?

It is simply a fact that East of the Rockies sports, and college sports in particular are much more popular than they are in the West. We talk about poor Stanford football attendance, but what about UCLA? Their numbers may be a bit bigger, but as a function of the surrounding population, UCLA draws worse than Stanford does.

There are other issues, but it hardly is worth the effort to get into them because they are so systemic and would take a dedicated effort on the part of the Pac-12 school leadership to change. I seriously doubt "the CEOs" of Pac-12 universities are going to be inclined to engage in a massive strategic initiative to pump up interest for Pac-12 sports in the region. Absent that, it is what it is, and you just accept it.

RE: What has happened to Pac-12 - Redrum - 01-03-2019

As it happens, Redrumette II, an Alabama grad and fan, plus hubby jumped on the chance to go to the championship game. The falling ticket prices had a lot to do with their decision. Many levels of regular season tickets in Tuscaloosa cost more, out of their pay grade and demand more often than not exceeds supply. But they and thousands others go to campus on game days just to watch the game on big screen TV. It’s another world entirely.

RE: What has happened to Pac-12 - 2006alum - 01-03-2019

The ESPN story on the sub-sticker tix also noted that the 2016 CFP semi between Alabama and Clemson (and Clemson's first post-season trip) in Glendale, AZ was also at or below sticker price, further confirming the geographic disadvantages PAC-12 football territory faces.

I posted this quite a while back in one of our earlier threads bemoaning the state of the PAC, but during the 2016 football season the average PAC-12 team had to travel a combined 8,471 miles to reach its away games. Compare that to 6,188 for the ACC, 5,549 for the Big 12, 4,465 for the Big Ten, and a mere 4,152 for the SEC. That's right, the average SEC team travels half the distance our teams do.

https://www.allmysportsteamssuck.com/2016/07/29/the-longest-yard-a-look-at-how-far-every-fbs-college-football-team-will-travel-in-2016/

Now think about a fan who is considering trying to attend their team's away games. Do they really want to travel 8,471 miles over 9-10 weeks just to watch a few football games?

RE: What has happened to Pac-12 - CompSci87 - 01-03-2019

(01-03-2019, 07:05 AM)Farm93 Wrote:
(01-03-2019, 04:36 AM)winflop Wrote: I think there are a few other reasons why this game is going to be less well-attended:
1. Travel cost. Hotels in this area are ridiculous even when there is no major event going on.
2. Distance from schools. A lot of SEC & ACC fans travel by RV, in part to save on hotel costs. Too far for that.
3. Weather. Gametime weather will likely be in the 40s with a good chance of rain.
4. Traffic. It's bad on a normal evening commute.

These are also reasons why the Pac-12 CCG has done so poorly at Levi's - other than #2.

#1 and #2 are reasons why Bama and Clemson fans won't attend in super strong numbers. However, my thoughts turn to the recent NCAA WVB Championship. That game was sold out and the place was rocking. Sure, the locals thought UofMN would be in the house, but they still were there in big numbers. The region loves WVB even if their team is not in the title game.

I'm sure it helped that Nebraska was in the title game. Your point about the region loving volleyball is still valid, as Nebraska is close enough to Minneapolis that Nebraska fans could absorb any tickets that Minnesota fans didn't want.

RE: What has happened to Pac-12 - Farm93 - 01-03-2019

(01-03-2019, 11:24 AM)CompSci87 Wrote:
(01-03-2019, 07:05 AM)Farm93 Wrote:
(01-03-2019, 04:36 AM)winflop Wrote: I think there are a few other reasons why this game is going to be less well-attended:
1. Travel cost. Hotels in this area are ridiculous even when there is no major event going on.
2. Distance from schools. A lot of SEC & ACC fans travel by RV, in part to save on hotel costs. Too far for that.
3. Weather. Gametime weather will likely be in the 40s with a good chance of rain.
4. Traffic. It's bad on a normal evening commute.

These are also reasons why the Pac-12 CCG has done so poorly at Levi's - other than #2.

#1 and #2 are reasons why Bama and Clemson fans won't attend in super strong numbers. However, my thoughts turn to the recent NCAA WVB Championship. That game was sold out and the place was rocking. Sure, the locals thought UofMN would be in the house, but they still were there in big numbers. The region loves WVB even if their team is not in the title game.

I'm sure it helped that Nebraska was in the title game. Your point about the region loving volleyball is still valid, as Nebraska is close enough to Minneapolis that Nebraska fans could absorb any tickets that Minnesota fans didn't want.

True enough about Nebraska, but that was for WVB. Still there were no excuses about MN disappointment, or cold weather, or a boring match-up between two superpowers of the sport (NE and Stanford have won the last 4 titles). And that was Minneapolis, MN. The place has some entertainment options, but they still came to support the sport.

Land the college football championship game, THE premier event in college sports, in the West and the excuses start flying.
Boring match-up.
Bad weather.
Monday night game.
Traffic.

Blah, blah, blah. Each excuse is valid but only highlights the lack of passion and the reduction in the value of promotional tie-ins.

FWIW - The 49ers have been experiencing the excuse game too.
Sunny side seats are too hot.
Tailgating options are difficult.
Leaving the area after a game takes forever.

So it is not just a college football thing. It really is an all-sport thing.

And there is nothing wrong with that. The athletes on the field can be better than their opponents even in front of small crowds.
However, the lack of area citizens willing to dedicate large portions of their life watching young 20 somethings play games means the conference will not win the TV revenue or game attendance game. Sadly, the attendance game is very important in college football post-season assignments. :(

RE: What has happened to Pac-12 - SF_Cardinal_Fan - 01-03-2019

(01-03-2019, 11:58 AM)Farm93 Wrote: FWIW - The 49ers have been experiencing the excuse game too.
Sunny side seats are too hot.
Tailgating options are difficult.
Leaving the area after a game takes forever.

I think Jed York moved the 49ers out of SF because Santa Clara was closer to his Los Altos residence.

RE: What has happened to Pac-12 - BostonCard - 01-03-2019

(01-03-2019, 01:33 PM)SF_Cardinal_Fan Wrote:
(01-03-2019, 11:58 AM)Farm93 Wrote: FWIW - The 49ers have been experiencing the excuse game too.
Sunny side seats are too hot.
Tailgating options are difficult.
Leaving the area after a game takes forever.

I think Jed York moved the 49ers out of SF because Santa Clara was closer to his Los Altos residence.

Good piece here:

https://slate.com/culture/2013/01/49ers-santa-clara-why-didnt-san-francisco-try-harder-to-keep-its-football-team-from-moving-out.html

Sounds like San Francisco didn’t make a great offer, and York wasn’t especially wedded to being in San Francisco.

To be honest, I can’t really blame the city (though what it did for the Anerica’s Cup was laughable). Civic pride aside, the sweetheart deals meant to lure or keep professional teams in cities are not good economic bets.

BC

SFGate: Ticket prices for the College Football Playoff final have fallen off a cliff - Snorlax94 - 01-03-2019

https://m.sfgate.com/news/article/Ticket-prices-for-the-College-Football-Playoff-13506041.php

I have to say I was stunned, and a little amused, by the fact that tickets for the championship game at Levi’s have plummeted so much. They’re going for hundreds under face value. Tickets seem to be cheaper than the Stanford Notre Dame game last year, And there are still four more days for the prices to keep dropping.

It’s as if the west coast apathy has infected the SEC and ACC. Lol

But seriously, I wonder if this is the canary in the coal mine moment for football. It seems like attendance has plummeted for all the bowls this year, it’s no longer just a story about Stanford and the pac 12.

I think the commissioners are going to have to start seriously rethinking their revenue and attendance plans for the next few years.

For my part, I suspect and I hope that the real problem is not a lack of interest in football, But a dramatic acceleration of the transition from in-person attendance to TV viewing. At my home, we had a great Sun Bowl viewing party, and people had a lot of fun despite the lack of scoring. My fan friends seem interested in watching the team year after year, just not so interested in going to the stadium.

But really, I wonder if this is the moment that in-person game attendance becomes recognized as a crisis across college football.

RE: SFGate: Ticket prices for the College Football Playoff final have fallen off a cliff - Nan3cy - 01-03-2019

So it isn't just because my husband and I are old farts that we prefer watching at home to watching at the stadium? I thought old-fartness was the explanation for pretty much everything...