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WBB: Oregon 88 Stanford 48 - 81alum - 02-09-2019

Preview:

Oregon is now the No. 3 team, having just the one inexplicable loss to Michigan State earlier in the year.  They have defeated Mississippi State and are undefeated in Pac 12 play.  They scored 102 against Colorado and 105 against Cal.  Every one of their five starters is well known and dangerous.  They are not a deep team, but their 5 starters have been uninjured this year, all five starting all 23 games and all averaging 25-35 minutes.  6'4" Ruthy Hebard is their junior big who is making 71% of her shots, dominating inside and averaging 17 ppg.  After sitting out a year Notre Dame transfer Erin Boley, a 6'2" forward, is averaging 13 ppg.  Satou Sabally is a 6'4" forward who is hitting 45% of her treys--out Smithing Smith.  And of course the gifted Sabrina Ionescu who averaged 19 points and does virtually everything.  Point guard Maite Cazorla has dished 115 assists to 33 turnovers, and also is hitting 43% of her treys.  They do get significant minutes from their 4 bench players. but those five are all they really need--every one of them is a gem.

Hate to be the bearer of doom and gloom, but there are two other factors working against us.  Tara's scouting report defenses have traditionally been strongest when we can focus on taking away one or two opposing players.  We did that against Oregon a couple of years ago by taking away Hebard.  But (until Friday) Tara has had less success against teams that are well balanced.  The other factor is that we play Oregon second.  I've noticed that most of our signature upsets are the first game of a weekend--since the coaches have a much longer time to prepare the team for the scouting report.  Not the case tomorrow.

What will we have to do to win?  Several things.  We have to play defense like we did on Friday, and at least slightly disrupt Oregon's scoring machine.  And someone needs to get hot, the way McPhee did in the first game last year.  Lacie getting a few surprise steals would certainly help!  All those things are at least possible.....

Overview:

I expected Oregon's offense to do well though I hoped for our defense to match Friday's intensity.  But I did not expect Oregon's defense to be as effective as it was.  Once we let Oregon get off to a sizable early lead, all the wheels fell off, the intensity evaporated, our focus waned, and we shot 32% compared with Oregon's 57%.  Oregon shot 75% of its threes--many were uncontested, including 4/4 from Boley.  

Character of the game:

It could have been worse.  No one was hurt, that I know of.  I worry about a game like this shaking our confidence and having lingering effects.  Beyond that, all I can say is that once the snowball started downhill, it was not going to stop until it got to the bottom.

Performances:

Carrington deserves a shout-out.  She had an off game on Friday, and she was the only player on our team who seemed to me to both be effective as well as playing with heart even when the game was way out of reach.  She finished with 13 points, and no one else was in double digits. 

The game was embarrassing enough that I won't go down the stat lines of the other players.  As a team, the stats tell the story well. 
Oregon made 36 field goals, we made 17.
Oregon was 12/16 from three point range.  We were 5/22.  Ugh.
Oregon had 41 rebounds.  We had 26.
Oregon had 19 assists.  We had 10.
Oregon had 4 players in double digits.  We had 1.

Conclusion:

Oregon is good, and probably should have beaten us.  However, we had a psychological melt down that turned a loss into the worse rout I can remember attending since UConn beat us 61-35 in December 2012.  Actually,  this was a larger deficit, so I wonder if it sets some sort of record for worst loss in Maples.

My main concern is that this team regains some self-confidence and wins some more games, and doesn't allow this loss to overshadow the fine performance they put in against Oregon State.  As for the long run, my money is on Oregon for a national championship.


RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon 1:00 Sunday - chimera - 02-09-2019

I'm guessing the defense will be sort of like that played against OSU, another team who shoots well from multiple positions from three-point range.  I don't see how they can help much because Oregon passes too well and will find the open player.  Can't leave any of them open outside.  Seems like gotta do like against OSU and stick to your player like glue, with switching but not much doubling or other fancy stuff.  But I know nothing so take that with the biggest grain of salt ever.


RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon 1:00 Sunday - CompSci87 - 02-09-2019

I like CardReider's motto in his preview of this weekend's games: Don't worry, be happy. (There's a bunch of newer stuff on his blog now too.)

https://cardreider.wordpress.com/2019/02/08/card-reider-column-dont-worry-be-happy/

It sounds right that the defensive scheme is likely to be similar, with no non-shooters they can help off of.


RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon 1:00 Sunday - CompSci87 - 02-10-2019

Oregon's defense much improved over recent years. We are having difficulty getting any good looks. Down 20-11 after one quarter.

One thing that's working some is the Dodson/Hebard matchup. Maya is holding her own. Never mind. :-(

44-20 after two. We're getting completely outclassed.


RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon 1:00 Sunday - M T - 02-10-2019

We got within 4 or 6 early in 2nd and then tried all the non starters and are now 22 down.  Ouch


RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon 1:00 Sunday - mbdude - 02-10-2019

Nothing going in for Smith. Maya just kinda throwing stuff up, missing bunnies.
Outclassed is right.  No energy


RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon 1:00 Sunday - BostonCard - 02-10-2019

*splat*

Things weren't looking great, but at 29-20 in the second quarter, the game was very much in play if we were somehow able to improve our offense.  Then Oregon went on a 15-0 run to close the half at 44-20, and well, ouch.

Glad we got the wins against Cal and OSU, but 2-3 in the critical 5 game stretch has to be disappointing.  That leaves us in third place in the Pac-12 though owning the head-to-head with OSU.

Also, just noticed that Utah has lost four in a row since they beat us.

BC


RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon 1:00 Sunday - TheFarm07 - 02-10-2019

(02-10-2019, 02:22 PM)CompSci87 Wrote:  Oregon's defense much improved over recent years. We are having difficulty getting any good looks. Down 20-11 after one quarter.

One thing that's working some is the Dodson/Hebard matchup. Maya is holding her own. Never mind. :-(

44-20 after two. We're getting completely outclassed.

44 points is disappointing, but not surprising. We all knew Oregon has a high-octane offense.

What is very disappointing is our offense. Maya's touch is lacking, she left at least 6 points on easy layups. Besides her, our shooting touch is sorely missing, in a game where we cannot afford it. We are shooting 26% with Alanna at 1/8 and Kiana and DiJonai only attempting 5 total shots. We look very unsure and uncertain against a defense that gave up 80+ points to Cal just a couple days ago


RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon 1:00 Sunday - CompSci87 - 02-10-2019

It's tough to account for how our offense is doing so much worse than Cal was. 

Yes, we are missing shots, but they are mostly not easy shots. Even the short ones are from a bit farther out than our bigs are accustomed to and are challenged. Outside shots are mostly challenged too. Oregon seems to know where we want to go and to get there first. Looks like great D to me.

I have to imagine Oregon is simply putting out more defensive effort than they did versus Cal.


RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon 1:00 Sunday - triangle2 - 02-10-2019

There are a few defensive lapses that have been disappointing, e.g. deciding to double down and leave Boley open, and leaving Hebard to help which just gives Hebard inside position for the O Board. Couldn't someone have said: "if you leave Boley, you're on the bench..." Ten volt shock if you leave her? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯


RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon 1:00 Sunday - TheFarm07 - 02-10-2019

(02-10-2019, 02:57 PM)CompSci87 Wrote:  It's tough to account for how our offense is doing so much worse than Cal was. 

Yes, we are missing shots, but they are mostly not easy shots. Even the short ones are from a bit farther out than our bigs are accustomed to and are challenged. Outside shots are mostly challenged too. Oregon seems to know where we want to go and to get there first. Looks like great D to me.

I have to imagine Oregon is simply putting out more defensive effort than they did versus Cal.

Yes, our shot opportunities are tougher, but we need to make them (and especially those that are pretty darn easy) if we want to win. I imagine we are making shots tougher for them as well, but they are still shooting quite well. :(

That means we need to get better, and if it's not possible this year, that we have to accept that our ceiling this season is a Sweet 16, maybe Elite 8 team, because Oregon is a national title contender and if we want that title, we need to get a whole lot better.

I hope our recruiting classes the next couple years will help us get back to elite status, because right now, we are pretty good, but not on the short list of national title contenders that we enjoyed in the late 2000s and early 2010s

Regardless of who we are playing, we should be embarrassed that we lost by FORTY points on our home court. Just because Oregon is a great team does not mean that kind of result should be tolerated


RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon 1:00 Sunday - BosCard - 02-10-2019

Yes Oregon is a better team than us but this was flat out embarrassing.  There was zero confidence shooting the ball.  Hopefully that will change next year.


RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon 1:00 Sunday - TheFarm07 - 02-10-2019

(02-10-2019, 03:37 PM)BosCard Wrote:  Yes Oregon is a better team than us but this was flat out embarrassing.  There was zero confidence shooting the ball.  Hopefully that will change next year.

Haley Jones and Hannah Jump are in the stands watching, hopefully that will encourage them never to let that happen during their time on the Farm


RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon 1:00 Sunday - BosCard - 02-10-2019

I'm hoping Alanna Smith finds her 3 point shooting touch again because in the last 4 games she has only made 3 out of 21 threes.  That is a very rough 14%.  I'm worried that she is putting so much pressure on herself to score that she is getting tight.  I think the same thing may have happened to McPhee last year down the stretch.


RE: WBB: Oregon 88 Stanford 48 - 81alum - 02-10-2019

Post mortem is done at the top.

I could not bring myself to do a detailed analysis.  I think after the first quarter we just lapsed into a psychological melt down.  That might be the worse loss in the Tara era, at least at Maples?


RE: WBB: Oregon 88 Stanford 48 - TheFarm07 - 02-10-2019

(02-09-2019, 07:26 PM)81alum Wrote:  My main concern is that this team regains some self-confidence and wins some more games, and doesn't allow this loss to overshadow the fine performance they put in against Oregon State.  

We head down south to the LA schools next weekend. Both of them defeated the Utes in Utah (which we could not do), even though USC dropped the game to Colorado today.

I really would like to be a fly on the wall in the locker room and hear what Tara is saying to the team. Holly Rowe was remarking on how angry Tara was after the first Oregon run at the beginning of the game. I wonder how she's feeling after this embarrassing rout. We played as if we felt like we didn't deserve to be on the same court as the Ducks. No confidence at all in running our offense or shooting the ball


RE: WBB: Oregon 88 Stanford 48 - 2006alum - 02-10-2019

Ooph. I've been working all weekend and didn't get a chance to watch either game live. I think I'll time travel back to Friday and then pretend today never happened. How did we follow up our most complete effort all season with one of our worst efforts all time? I really want to hear the press conference and see if Tara or anyone else has any insights. And the strangest part is that if you'd said Oregon would win by 40, I would have put money on us having major foul trouble, but according to the box score it was Oregon, not we, who were racking up the fouls... 

Let's hope our players use this as major motivation to push through to the end of the season. I think if we can win out and meet Oregon again in the PAC-12 championship finals, we'll still have a shot at a no. 2 seed (whether or not we deserve it, which at this moment, I'm doubtful of...)


RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon 1:00 Sunday - M T - 02-10-2019

(02-10-2019, 03:18 PM)TheFarm07 Wrote:  Regardless of who we are playing, we should be embarrassed that we lost by FORTY points on our home court. Just because Oregon is a great team does not mean that kind of result should be tolerated


We are extremely blessed by being fans of a school that wins so many events across so many sports.  I know I've hurt a lot after losses and then I stop to think about how often the other teams lose, and I know I should remember, it is just a game and entertainment.  Perhaps when you have some time, you will reread your post and edit it.  I don't agree with your sentiment at all.  We are fans; they are the ones that work at this sport and allow us to participate vicariously. 

Frankly, while I can't remember such a big loss by a Tara  team, I thought both teams
 1) Played cleanly -- no attempts to take someone's knees out or any kind of dirty play
 2) Played with energy -- no one was slaking or just calling it in
I didn't see anything about their play that was embarrassing.


As for the result, I've seen Stanford play amazingly effectively this year.  Today, Oregon played better, by a lot.

I think our players should not feel embarrassed.  With the kind of character I believe they have, I expect they will double down on being ready for the next game and for the next game against Oregon, should we get a chance (or even two) this year.


RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon 1:00 Sunday - TheFarm07 - 02-10-2019

(02-10-2019, 05:02 PM)M T Wrote:  
(02-10-2019, 03:18 PM)TheFarm07 Wrote:  Regardless of who we are playing, we should be embarrassed that we lost by FORTY points on our home court. Just because Oregon is a great team does not mean that kind of result should be tolerated


We are extremely blessed by being fans of a school that wins so many events across so many sports.  I know I've hurt a lot after losses and then I stop to think about how often the other teams lose, and I know I should remember, it is just a game and entertainment.  Perhaps when you have some time, you will reread your post and edit it.  I don't agree with your sentiment at all.  We are fans; they are the ones that work at this sport and allow us to participate vicariously. 

Frankly, while I can't remember such a big loss by a Tara  team, I thought both teams
 1) Played cleanly -- no attempts to take someone's knees out or any kind of dirty play
 2) Played with energy -- no one was slaking or just calling it in
I didn't see anything about their play that was embarrassing.


As for the result, I've seen Stanford play amazingly effectively this year.  Today, Oregon played better, by a lot.

I think our players should not feel embarrassed.  With the kind of character I believe they have, I expect they will double down on being ready for the next game and for the next game against Oregon, should we get a chance (or even two) this year.

I am not saying that the end result should be the end-all, be-all of their lives. It is just a game and a sport and there are much bigger things in life.

I am simply commenting from a sports perspective and when I say "we," I was referring to the mindset of the team themselves rather than our perspective as fans. My use of pronouns were confusing. I can't speak from the perspective from a D1 collegiate athlete, but I just meant that even as you give credit to Oregon for playing a great game, the team should also be fired up that as a Top-10, Top-15 team in the country, they lost by 40 points on their home court. Players themselves have talked about defending Maples and home court and I am just saying the pride they have in playing and winning at home should make this loss a of immense proportions blemish they would want never to have happened again.

And even though I agree that there was no dirty plays on either sides and the team still played with a lot of heart even when the game was out of hand, I felt the game score was not indicative of the relative talent levels of both teams. Oregon is probably the better team, but not a 40-point better team.

This loss nor any other loss lessens my deep appreciation and utmost respect I have for the team or the character of the players or the coaching staff. I am simply arguing from a sports perspective.


RE: WBB: Oregon 88 Stanford 48 - chimera - 02-10-2019

I can't think of a positive so I guess I will stick with the old, if you can't say anything nice, don't say anything at all.  Oregon is very good and their shooting was unreal today, just super hot.  They played much better defense than they usually do, probably because it was such a big game, they cranked it up.  The length on the perimeter gave us a lot of problems.  They are not 40 points better, and most teams they have played in conference gave them a better game.

OK, here is a positive, Jerome was more active rebounding and generally more assertive this weekend.  

I don't know what to make of this weekend, of this team.  I do think the loss of Fingall is having an effect, and Dodson is just coming back after a long absence, plus she is not an experienced player, so she is up and down.  The bigger picture is the losses to cal and Utah were totally preventable, and the fact that we lost those games, now puts us in a hole trying to keep up with the top of the conference.  If we played better and won those two games, this loss, while ugly, would feel more like a one-off.  Now the recent games make me wonder if the team is not quite what we thought.