WBB: Stanford 64 Oregon 57 we are champs! - Printable Version
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WBB: Stanford 64 Oregon 57 we are champs! - 81alum - 03-10-2019
Overview:
In Tara's own words "this game was won with defense" Kate Paye's scouting report was superb and helped us build a 14 point lead early in the 3rd quarter, but after Smith and Dodson both went to the locker room with ankle issues, Oregon stormed back. Fortunately they returned to the game but not in time to prevent Oregon taking a 48-51 at 5:39 in the fourth. But the last five minutes were magical. Smith hitting a trey to tie it, Carrington poked the ball away from Cazorla for a fast break layup, and Williams buryied a trey to build a lead big enough to survive. Graves admitted that when the nation's best offensive team shoots 34% it is going to lose. Stanford shot 40%.
Flow of the Game:
From the start, it was clear that this was not going to be a repeat of our 40 point shellacking last month at Maples. In the first quarter we chained numerous stops and managed to convert with our own offense more often than not. Smith opened by cutting to the basket for a layup, and then buried a trey for a 5-0 lead. Carrington followed with a trey to give us an 8-0 lead before Oregon scored. For the most part, we prevented Hebard from getting close to the basket during the first half. Also critically important to the win was our ability to switch and defend after the pick and rolls--forcing Oregon to take mid range jumpers rather than continuing on to the basket the way they did at Maples. After one, we were up 18-11.
Tara told the team "you've one the first 10 minutes, now you need to win the next 10 minutes." And we did, although not as clearly. Carrington really poured it on with 4 layups in the quarter, Wilson buried a trey. We made to halftime up 33-24. I was shocked that Oregon--Oregon--had by far their worst offensive half of the season. The third quarter started well but soon turned south. Smith and Dodson both landed awkwardly and rolled their ankles. Smith was in pain and went to the locker room, Dodson soon followed. Both came back and reentered the game later, seemingly undeterred. But while they were out Oregon put on a run and took the lead 41-42 by the end of the quarter. It could have been worse except for an emphatic block of a Sabally last second shot by Smith.
The fourth quarter seesawed over the first first five minutes with every basket seeming to change the lead or tie it up--7 times in fact--leaving the score 51-51 at the media timeout at 4:02. Coming out of the timeout Carrington made a layup, then stole the ball for another layup, and we were up 55-51 at 3:11 and Graves took a timeout. We fouled Hebard who made 1/2, then Williams turned it over and Boley missed. Williams brought the ball up and drained a trey, with ice in her veins. With a 58-52 lead with 1:28 left the fouling game began. Ionescu scored 5 more points, but Williams and Smith made 6/6 free throws, and the game was over 63-57 Stanford.
Performances:
Carrington was my hope for beating the Oregon zone, as McPhee did last year, and she did not disappoint. Not only did she score 22 points, she grabbed 6 O-boards, made 2 assists, 1 block, and one so very important steal.
Smith was critical, as became clear when she was absent for a few minutes. Tara wisely called a time out and also used the media time out to give her a chance to get taped up (or whatever they did) and get back in the game. She wound up playing 37 minutes, scored 20 including 4/11 from three point range, grabbed 14 rebounds, made 3 assists, added a steal and 3 blocks while keeping her fouls down to 2.
Williams played all 40 minutes and has every right to be the most tired person on the team. She scored 16 points and made 6 assists while playing frenetic defense.
Dodson played 29 minutes which is probably one of her longer stretches. She was on Hebard all night, and managed to help limit her to 4 baskets while picking up just 2 fouls. Tara was asked how she did it--what was the secret, and she would only say that others would have to watch the tape to figure it out, but that we wanted to make her do things she didn't like to do. Standard scouting report defense, in other words, but I was shocked that Dodson was able to hold the 75% shooter to 4/10.
Tara called out Anna Wilson for her defense on Ionescu. The Hulls just picked up too many fouls too quickly trying to guard her, and Anna stayed glued to her for 27 minutes. True, Ionescu had 27 points, but they were not efficient points, coming on 10/26 shooting.
As a team, the stats were similar for Stanford and Oregon in many categories, except that we shot 41% to their 34%. We also had 8 blocks to their 2.
Conclusion:
I am very proud of this team and the greatest turnaround in one season from a bad loss to a sweet victory that I can remember. This felt like a bigger win than against Baylor, to me, although after Baylor destroyed us last year that game was also sweet revenge. But the team now has a definite personality--it is the best defensive team in the Pac 12 and has enough offensive weapons to win games when the score is kept within reason. We still will probably have just a 2 seed, but hopefully we are improving enough to have a shot at a deep NCAA run.
Preview:
Well, we are back to where we wanted to be--playing in the finals. And we are up against the team that delivered the worst defeat in Tara Vanderveer's career just weeks ago. That was not a fluke, either. Oregon strangled us in the finals last year, holding us to 7 points in one quarter, and the last time we beat them was with McPhee's miracle second half breakout performance in Eugene more than a year ago.
In my view, the main problem is not the Oregon offense. That offense can be counted on to score plenty, but if the game is tight Tara will find a way to slow it down slightly. The main problem the last few times we have played them has been our offense. The Oregon zone defense seems to affect us even more than other teams like UCLA. We need to score better than 70 points and that means not having any poor quarters of offensive output. If we can continue to shoot 42% from three as we did last night we will have a chance.
When we are on defense, I imagine Coffee and Dodson will be working to push Hebard out of the paint--we have been able to reduce her performance in some past games. But we have not been able to shut down Oregon's three point shooting. Making the game respectable will depend on it. And as Carrington said in the post game interview last night, solving the Oregon pick and roll play better than we did last time out is also critical.
To our advantage, Oregon was pushed to the limit last night in an overtime game, and UCLA might have shown our players that Oregon is beatable. We need another McPhee like performance from somebody to prevail tonight. To our disadvantage--just like the last time we played them (right after Oregon State on a Friday-Sunday gap), we have no significant time between games and so there is no time to implement a new scouting report defense. And whatever we used on the last scouting report didn't work.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon 5pm PDST Sunday - 81alum - 03-10-2019
So, any guesses as to how the defensive assignments will start tonight?
Clearly Coffee/Dodson on Hebard. They must push her away from the basket because she is nearly a certain 2 points if she catches the ball close. They will need help. I don't see Smith in there that much due to the fear of fouls. So who comes off their mark to help Coffee on Hebard?
Smith on Sabally? Smith may be the only person who could defend Sabally on the perimeter and possibly move with her.
Carrington on Boley? Williams on Cazorla? Williams seems best to me at defending the stationary three point shooters and not as strong at defending those who can drive. Unfortunately, they all can drive.
Lacie Hull on Ionescu? A wise person once told me it seems a little unfair to ask a freshman to guard the #1 WNBA choice, but that is how the season has developed. And even though Lacie had some problems staying with Melgoza in the 4th quarter last night (who wouldn't?), there is no questioning her drive and intelligence--she learns fast.
I wonder if we mix in some zone? Can we stay on the perimeter shooting sufficiently if we do?
On offense, how do you think Tara will go after the Oregon zone given the fact that it has at times worked very well against us? The Princeton doesn't work against zone in general. We have a model for what does work--McPhee killed Oregon last year with many stop-and-pop jumpers from the elbow and some more acrobatic penetration. That sounds to me like a prescription for Carrington.
Finally, can we afford to have a deep rotation, given the talent disparity between the Oregon starters and our second string? But if we can rotate, is there a chance we can do to Oregon in the 4th quarter what we did to Cal?
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon 5pm PDST Sunday - TheFarm07 - 03-10-2019
81, I agree with you it's not the Oregon offense, but the Oregon defense that has been giving us fits.
I was not surprised that Oregon scored 88 on us last month, I was very disappointed that we were held to less than 50 on our home floor though. With such a high-octane offense, we can only hope to contain the Ducks defense, completely shutting them down would be impossible.
We need to match them on our offensive end. What makes Oregon so dangerously offensively is they can score from our 5 positions. Cazorla would be their fifth option in their starting lineup and you wouldn't want to leave her unguarded.
If Dodson can continue the pace she has over the last couple games and the Hull twins can get hot from long range, then we expand the threats the Ducks will have to worry about.
I would love for us to try to find a soft spot in the zone and hit some nice mid-range jumpers to give Oregon a different look instead of just passing around the perimeter and forcing it into the paint when there's no opening.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon 5pm PDST Sunday - martyup - 03-10-2019
We need to go after Hebard and get her in foul trouble. Then, how do we stop Lonescu?
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon 5pm PDST Sunday - 2006alum - 03-10-2019
I like your assignments 81, and I think they make sense. I wouldn't be surprised if Tara rotates Williams, the Hulls, Carrington, and Wilson on the combo of Ionescu and Cazorla. One thing I will say is that I don't think Oregon's guards are the steadiest ball handlers, and Ionescu in particular can be a little turnover prone, so I think a critical thing at the backcourt is to try to get some steals and turnovers for some quick points. Getting out in transition for easy buckets will be essential, because Oregon is not an especially fast team - I actually think Sebally has the fastest foot speed, and she's 6'4"! If our guards can poke out some balls and take them back for easy layups, that could be a gamechanger. Even in our dreadful loss to them last month, we kept with them on turnovers and steals.
And yes, getting any of them in foul trouble would be brobdingnagian, given their short bench. We can go much deeper into our rotation than they can.
--
Edited to add: I think I like qwerty's idea too. The hulls are great perimeter defenders and Boley isn't very fast, whereas Ionescu is more physical and Carrington will have no problem matching that.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon 5pm PDST Sunday - qwerty49 - 03-10-2019
I would put the Hulls on Boley. They would shut her down the way they shut down Peterson.
That leaves Carrington on Ionescu. I didn’t watch the whole game but I thought UCLA did a pretty good job of keeping Ionescu off the scoresheet until it was FT time in OT. Maybe there’s something to be learned there. Carrington did get juked by Asha Thomas in the Cal loss but Ionescu is nowhere near as quick as Thomas.
I hope Dodson can continue her progress on offense. I’d love to see her get Hebard into early foul trouble.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon 5pm PDST Sunday - chimera - 03-10-2019
As much attention as Ionescu gets, the Ducks were a whole different team when Hebard was out for those few games. If we can control her or get her into foul trouble, that would be brobdingnagian. Her inside play opens things up for all those shooters.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon 5pm PDST Sunday - M T - 03-10-2019
Our players can't control this, but I hope our coaches have let the PAC-12 conference know that the officials should enforce lane violations and call "palming" the ball, and call the "left down on catch-right-left-right-shot". The rules are in the books, and the refs are supposed to call them. They haven't been. Call those, and it is liable to disrupt Oregon. (One of our players will occasionally do those, but Ionescu violates two of those virtually every offensive possession.)
There have been so many poor calls in this tournament. Who else saw the double dribble under the basket in one of the other games? I've seen 6-seconds (by game clock) in the lane. (Heck, if they're calling the heel in the air above the arc, then they really should call the lane violations where the player never gets both feet out of the lane at the same time.) Then there was the phantom tie ball. And of course all the missed & phantom fouls that we get in each game (for instance, UW 3Q 7:23). Oh yea, the travel called on Alanna wasn't a travel (UW 4Q 3:25). Missy missed that her pivot foot hadn't yet touched before she passed. Awkward, yes; Travel, no. The backcourt call at 2Q 2:41 in the Cal game is a typical bad call by the official. Kiana's right foot had come down in the front court before she touched the ball, but the official jumped at making a technical call as if her foot had not come down. It was a bang-bang play, but the official made the wrong call.
As for the alleged push-off on the half court shot, the best view is from the side, where it is pretty clear there was no push off. Dijonai's elbow is bent more than 90 degrees; her arm doesn't extend & come back. From the high end-line camera, you can see the UW player throw her head back, indicating it wasn't a push on her torso that sent her flying, it was her own volition when she lead with her head to drive herself backwards. (Have some one push you in the chest and see whether your head leads your shoulders.)
The one difficult & critical call that I applaud the officials on was the technical foul on Washington with 2.3 seconds in regulation. That was the proper call, even if it hurt Oregon State. OSU could have scored a three with 6 Washington players lying on the floor in the 2.3 seconds. Note that OSU had every right to throw the ball in and start play while Washington is distracted with themselves.
Of course, I think ref Kyle Bacon in the UCLA-Oregon game should have called a foul on the inbounds at OT 0:08.7. I don't see how he didn't call it. Injury would have been added to insult if he'd been forced to give the ball to Oregon when he had to go to replay to determine who last touched it.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon 5pm PDST Sunday - martyup - 03-10-2019
Here we go! Good luck Cardinal.
8-0 start.
Yes, we got the first foul on Hebard. Take it too her.
Ducks are cold shooting.
GREAT FIRST Q!!! 18-11. Smith ends the Q with a brobdingnagian block of a 3pt attempt. Carrington is on fire. Coffee is taking it to Hebard. Hope they can keep it up. Stanford is shooting 50%/30% while Oregon is 23.5%/12.5%.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon 5pm PDST Sunday - BobK - 03-10-2019
Stanford tied the all time record. Amazing.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon 5pm PDST Sunday - martyup - 03-10-2019
(03-10-2019, 05:35 PM)BobK Wrote: Stanford tied the all time record. Amazing.
For what?
Up 29-20 with 1:46 to go in the half. Wilson lost a contact and headed to the locker room.
33-24 at the half. Carrington with 16 in the half.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon 5pm PDST Sunday - BobK - 03-10-2019
Wilson a slight cut cane right back out of the locker room
Zero turnovers for a quarter. Can’t beat that
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon 5pm PDST Sunday - martyup - 03-10-2019
I think that Oregon is tired from their overtime win against UCLA yesterday. Their bad shooting shows it.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon 5pm PDST Sunday - M T - 03-10-2019
I'm concerned about our shooting too. A lot of shots missed badly.
And we're in danger with the fouls called against us.
Oregon will come out more focused. There will be a run.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon 5pm PDST Sunday - Spiny_Norman - 03-10-2019
Stanford is not lighting it up from 3 point range. Only 3 of 14. But 11 of 18 from 2 point range, a lot of them from close in. Stanford with 20 points in the paint. Passing has been superb.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon 5pm PDST Sunday - martyup - 03-10-2019
Smith and Dodson have 2 blocks each. We win with defense. We must get Hebard in foul trouble. Carrington and Smith need to drive on her. We're not going to stop Lonescu, but we can slow her down. If Hebard is neutralized, we win.
(03-10-2019, 06:03 PM)Spiny_Norman Wrote: Stanford is not lighting it up from 3 point range. Only 3 of 14. But 11 of 18 from 2 point range, a lot of them from close in. Stanford with 20 points in the paint. Passing has been superb.
Yeah, I wish half of those 14 were not taken. We need to work it inside. We are breaking their zone with superb feeder passes.
Holy shizzle. Smith is hurt.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon 5pm PDST Sunday - BobK - 03-10-2019
Smith out of the locker room. Dodson in the locker room.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon 5pm PDST Sunday - martyup - 03-10-2019
OMG, Dodson is now hurt too.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon 5pm PDST Sunday - BobK - 03-10-2019
Dodson back Looks like Smith ready to go
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon 5pm PDST Sunday - martyup - 03-10-2019
Gut check time. Oregon on an 13-3 run. It's a 1 point game.
Well, we had an 8 point 3rd Q and we trail by 1. Who wants it more? Will Tara be the difference? Work some magic coach.