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WBB Brackets - FarmDad.01 - 03-12-2019

Come Monday, the NCAA announces the WBB brackets.

#1 seeds will go to Baylor, ND and UConn. Vying for the remaining top slot: MS State, Louisville, Stanford & Oregon.

> MS State, #4 AP & Coaches: 30-2, NCAA RPI #8, Massey SOS #22. SEC regular season and tourney champs. Vs. probable Big Dance teams: 10-2. Last 10 games: 9-1.

> Louisville, #5 AP & Coaches: 29-3, NCAA RPI #3, Massey SOS #6. ACC regular season co-champs. Vs. probable Big Dance teams: 9-3. Last 10 games: 8-2.

> Stanford, #6 AP & Coaches: 28-4, NCAA RPI #4, Massey SOS #2. PAC-12 tourney champs. Vs. probable Big Dance teams: 10-3. Last 10 games: 9-1.

> Oregon, #7 AP & Coaches: 29-4, NCAA RPI #5, Massey SOS #3. PAC-12 regular season champs. Vs. probable Big Dance teams: 7-4. Last 10 games: 7-3.

Seems to me MS State's noticeably less difficult schedule (a down year for the SEC, with only 3 teams hosting the opening rounds -- same as PAC 12) drops them from the mix. So does Oregon's title game loss. Remember that peaking at season's end is supposed to matter. So who deserves the final #1 berth: Louisville, skunked in the ACC finals, or Stanford, which in the championship game avenged a 40-pt home court wipe-out a month earlier?

btw, should the Cardinal win the nod, the Regionals in Portland means staying in the same time zone...


RE: WBB Brackets - jonnyss - 03-12-2019

(03-12-2019, 04:47 PM)FarmDad.01 Wrote:  Come Monday, the NCAA announces the WBB brackets.

#1 seeds will go to Baylor, ND and UConn. Vying for the remaining top slot: MS State, Louisville, Stanford & Oregon.

> MS State, #4 AP & Coaches: 30-2, NCAA RPI #8, Massey SOS #22. SEC regular season and tourney champs. Vs. probable Big Dance teams: 10-2. Last 10 games: 9-1.

> Louisville, #5 AP & Coaches: 29-3, NCAA RPI #3, Massey SOS #6. ACC regular season co-champs. Vs. probable Big Dance teams: 9-3. Last 10 games: 8-2.

> Stanford, #6 AP & Coaches: 28-4, NCAA RPI #4, Massey SOS #2. PAC-12 tourney champs. Vs. probable Big Dance teams: 10-3. Last 10 games: 9-1.

> Oregon, #7 AP & Coaches: 29-4, NCAA RPI #5, Massey SOS #3. PAC-12 regular season champs. Vs. probable Big Dance teams: 7-4. Last 10 games: 7-3.

Seems to me MS State's noticeably less difficult schedule (a down year for the SEC, with only 3 teams hosting the opening rounds -- same as PAC 12) drops them from the mix. So does Oregon's title game loss. Remember that peaking at season's end is supposed to matter. So who deserves the final #1 berth: Louisville, skunked in the ACC finals, or Stanford, which in the championship game avenged a 40-pt home court wipe-out a month earlier?

btw, should the Cardinal win the nod, the Regionals in Portland means staying in the same time zone...

if i remember correctly, the highest ranked #2 seed gets to play in the closest venue, then closest for then next ranked #2 seed. neither louisville nor mississippi state is likely to go to portland as the top 2 seed.  which leaves portland for either oregon or stanford as the next 2-seed. but they could easily violate their own rule and give it to oregon because they crowd would likely be better.


RE: WBB Brackets - 2006alum - 03-12-2019

I believe the rule is now that within each seeding level, they will factor in geography and matchups unless it violates another rule of bracket placement. Moreover, the committee distinguishes between driving distance (less than 270 miles) and flying (270+) in deciding on whether to prioritize proximity. So if both Oregon and Stanford are the two line, regardless of which is higher, Oregon is <270 miles from Portland; Stanford is >270 miles, and Oregon will get the Portland placement. Sucks, but for the purposes of seeking a crowded house, it makes good sense. Most people seem to assume Stanford is destined for Chicago - and potentially a fourth meeting with the Domers in the past five tournaments...


RE: WBB Brackets - FarmDad.01 - 03-12-2019

(03-12-2019, 06:49 PM)2006alum Wrote:  I believe the rule is now that within each seeding level, they will factor in geography and matchups unless it violates another rule of bracket placement. Moreover, the committee distinguishes between driving distance (less than 270 miles) and flying (270+) in deciding on whether to prioritize proximity. So if both Oregon and Stanford are the two line...

Apologies that my original post appears to be ambiguous. In it, I was laying out a case for naming Stanford the fourth #1 seed.


RE: WBB Brackets - jonnyss - 03-12-2019

(03-12-2019, 07:25 PM)FarmDad.01 Wrote:  
(03-12-2019, 06:49 PM)2006alum Wrote:  I believe the rule is now that within each seeding level, they will factor in geography and matchups unless it violates another rule of bracket placement. Moreover, the committee distinguishes between driving distance (less than 270 miles) and flying (270+) in deciding on whether to prioritize proximity. So if both Oregon and Stanford are the two line...

Apologies that my original post appears to be ambiguous. In it, I was laying out a case for naming Stanford the fourth #1 seed.
no, we got it. you were quite clear. if we get the fourth #1 seed, we go to portland. the next question considered was what if instead we get the top #2 seed; might we still go to portland? some rules favor us, but proximity will favor oregon.


RE: WBB Brackets - BobK - 03-12-2019

An excellent post farm dad. Sadly the east folks on the committee probably won’t use your great logic . But we can hope


RE: WBB Brackets - Lorcan - 03-12-2019

Another way of looking at it:

Losses by RPI:

Louisville: Notre Dame (1), Notre Dame (1), Miami (18)
Mississippi State: Oregon (4), Missouri (29)
Oregon: Oregon St (24), Stanford (4), Michigan St. (42), UCLA (42)
Stanford: Utah (92), Oregon (5), Cal (40), Gonzaga (13)

While our numbers for RPI and SOS do look nice, it's hard to ignore the losses that we've had this year compared to say Louisville or even Mississippi State. I'm pretty sure that we're out of the race for the top seed. At that point, we probably get shipped east as it's a flight for us either way and Oregon can just bus to Portland. It's tricky to see how the teams will fall in terms of placement from there on out. In theory, you'd send the weakest #1 out to Oregon, in either Louisville or Mississippi State. From there, in terms of balance you'd presumably send the other team over to Albany to face the #3 overall. While I'd love to face UConn again this year, I'm not sure I can see it unless the committee goes for the storyline of having Tara play Geno again with Katie Lou's career on the line.


RE: WBB Brackets - 2006alum - 03-12-2019

I think the tails on our probable outcomes are wider than a lot of the top teams: we probably have less raw talent than most of the other probable 1 seeds, but because we have Tara's chess match wizardry, when we execute well can take down almost any team. When we execute poorly, a lot of teams can take us down (and a team like Oregon can shellack us by 40). And I feel like this year's team has had a bit of a tendency to play to the quality of the opponent. So we lose to some much worse teams and beat a few arguably better ones (first Oregon game excluded).

OTH, if I were a fan of any of the 1 seeds, Stanford would be the 2 seed I'd least want to have in my bracket, because we have "spoiler" written all over us.


RE: WBB Brackets - 81alum - 03-12-2019

(03-12-2019, 08:28 PM)2006alum Wrote:  OTH, if I were a fan of any of the 1 seeds, Stanford would be the 2 seed I'd least want to have in my bracket, because we have "spoiler" written all over us.
I think this is right as far as Notre Dame is concerned.  After we have repeatedly spoiled their tournaments, they won't want to face us. 

But first things first.  It was only a couple of years ago that we beat South Dakota State at Maples in the 2nd round by 1 point when Lili made a free throw with 8 seconds left.  We may be the kind of team that can beat Baylor and Oregon, but we are also the kind of team that can lose to Gonzaga and Utah.  And if we get complacent we will never find out how we could do against a #1 seed.

As Charlie has it, if the seeds all held we would need to beat New Mexico State and South Dakota at Maples, then Maryland and Notre Dame in Chicago.


Baylor, on the other hand, is probably itching for revenge, and I could see the committee providing the possibility of a rematch with Baylor the way we had a rematch with Oregon.  And expecting that Baylor will get the better of us, without Fingall this time.


RE: WBB Brackets - FarmDad.01 - 03-12-2019

(03-12-2019, 07:55 PM)jonnyss Wrote:  
(03-12-2019, 07:25 PM)FarmDad.01 Wrote:  
(03-12-2019, 06:49 PM)2006alum Wrote:  I believe the rule is now that within each seeding level, they will factor in geography and matchups unless it violates another rule of bracket placement. Moreover, the committee distinguishes between driving distance (less than 270 miles) and flying (270+) in deciding on whether to prioritize proximity. So if both Oregon and Stanford are the two line...

Apologies that my original post appears to be ambiguous. In it, I was laying out a case for naming Stanford the fourth #1 seed.
no, we got it. you were quite clear. if we get the fourth #1 seed, we go to portland. the next question considered was what if instead we get the top #2 seed; might we still go to portland? some rules favor us, but proximity will favor oregon.

Your next question, not mine. Of course if Stanford and Oregon are both #2 seeds, the Ducks bus north and the Cardinals enplane eastward.