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Softball-vs. Saint Mary's - Printable Version

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Softball-vs. Saint Mary's - d4cohn - 03-27-2019

Stanford already rolling in Game #1 against the Gaels. Stanford has notched
all four hits on doubles, and leads 3-0 entering the T3.

Maddy Dwyer has seen 6, and sent 6 back to dugout for a perfect start.

RE: Softball-vs. Saint Mary's - Viking_Guy - 03-27-2019

Now 6-0 after 3.  Feels like potential run-rule territory. Not to woof.

VG

RE: Softball-vs. Saint Mary's - d4cohn - 03-27-2019

(03-27-2019, 04:33 PM)d4cohn Wrote:  Stanford already rolling in Game #1 against the Gaels. Stanford has notched
all four hits on doubles, and leads 3-0 entering the T3.

Maddy Dwyer has seen 6, and sent 6 back to dugout for a perfect start.

6-0 entering T4. The double parade continues, as now all 7 hits are doubles.

Freshman Emily Schultz has two of them; Whitney and Montana continue
to power the heart of the Stanford lineup with a double apiece and respective RBI's.

RE: Softball-vs. Saint Mary's - d4cohn - 03-27-2019

Stanford rolls to two 8-0 run-rule victories.

Game #1 ends after 5, Game #2 after 6. 

Cardinal improve to 23-4 on the season, after notching a fourth consecutive
victory.

RE: Softball-vs. Saint Mary's - d4cohn - 03-27-2019

(03-27-2019, 08:16 PM)d4cohn Wrote:  Stanford rolls to two 8-0 run-rule victories.

Game #1 ends after 5, Game #2 after 6. 

Cardinal improve to 23-4 on the season, after notching a fourth consecutive
victory.

Providing some stats from the two routs this afternoon, freshman Emily Schultz had a sensational day at the plate;
she notched a HR, 3 doubles and 7 RBI's over only 11 innings. Teaghan Cowles provided 3 XBH (2 doubles and a triple).
Maddy Dwyer picks up two wins in two starts to improve to 8-2.

Contrary to norm, at least so far, Stanford's offensive stats have continued to improve as the team moves farther into Pac-12 play. Card
hit .385 against Cal, with a combined 20 runs scored, over two games, to help boost the team statline to .293/.394/.466 after
the two games today.

Oregon, with their turmoil (particularly in the circle), provides a great opportunity to add to what is turning into a very impressive 
campaign at the plate this weekend.

RE: Softball-vs. Saint Mary's - chrisk - 03-27-2019

(03-27-2019, 10:21 PM)d4cohn Wrote:  
(03-27-2019, 08:16 PM)d4cohn Wrote:  Stanford rolls to two 8-0 run-rule victories.

Game #1 ends after 5, Game #2 after 6. 

Cardinal improve to 23-4 on the season, after notching a fourth consecutive
victory.

Providing some stats from the two routs this afternoon, freshman Emily Schultz had a sensational day at the plate;
she notched a HR, 3 doubles and 7 RBI's over only 11 innings. Teaghan Cowles provided 3 XBH (2 doubles and a triple).
Maddy Dwyer picks up two wins in two starts to improve to 8-2.

Contrary to norm, at least so far, Stanford's offensive stats have continued to improve as the team moves farther into Pac-12 play. Card
hit .385 against Cal, with a combined 20 runs scored, over two games, to help boost the team statline to .293/.394/.466 after
the two games today.

Oregon, with their turmoil (particularly in the circle), provides a great opportunity to add to what is turning into a very impressive 
campaign at the plate this weekend.

4 PAC-12 teams are ranked. Stanford is 28.

RE: Softball-vs. Saint Mary's - BigEasyCard - 03-28-2019

The turnaround continues...

Geaux Cardinal!

RE: Softball-vs. Saint Mary's - BobK - 03-28-2019

I’m not sure I’ll be there Friday night with track going on but I’ll be there Saturday and Sunday. Behind home plate area white T&F hat

RE: Softball-vs. Saint Mary's - d4cohn - 03-28-2019

For the techies on the board (MT, I saw you were able to embed some code previously in the discussion regarding
seeding in the NCAAW tournament), how can you embed graphs in a post? I performed an analysis for Stanford softball's
remaining schedule based on Massey Rating-derived game outcome probabilities, which provided some interesting findings regarding
what we might expect from the team over the final 25 games. 

I was hoping to share a couple of histograms, along with some summary statistics (which I can just include as regular text).

RE: Softball-vs. Saint Mary's - M T - 03-28-2019

(03-28-2019, 04:57 PM)d4cohn Wrote:  For the techies on the board (MT, I saw you were able to embed some code previously in the discussion regarding
seeding in the NCAAW tournament), how can you embed graphs in a post? I performed an analysis for Stanford softball's
remaining schedule based on Massey Rating-derived game outcome probabilities, which provided some interesting findings regarding
what we might expect from the team over the final 25 games. 

I was hoping to share a couple of histograms, along with some summary statistics (which I can just include as regular text).

The approach I would take would be to make the histograms into images (png, jpeg) and include them as attachments, EXCEPT I haven't been able to get attachments to work, nor have I seen anyone else do so.  One of the people with access to this system's code was going to look into that but hasn't yet.

The other approach is to post those images elsewhere (facebook, twitter, a web page somewhere, upload them to some sharing site) and then to refer to them by URL (ie, link) or embed them as images.

The "code" you saw from me was just my use of the Code format to get monospaced text so tabular data looks right.  Unfortunately this system (as is) doesn't have an easy way to create tables. 

It hasn't been used  much, but you might get more traction if you ask for assistance at
  https://thecardboard.org/board/showthread.php?tid=8665

I am looking forward to your analysis.  I'm always interested in new ways of understanding things.

RE: Softball-vs. Saint Mary's - d4cohn - 03-29-2019

Thanks MT. For now, it might be best to just summarize in text my findings, but hopefully the attachment issue will be resolved soon.

Similar to results I had presented a couple of weeks ago with regards to Stanford Softball's remaining non-conference schedule, I simulated
the remaining 25 games of the regular season (presuming no rainouts, which might be a big if at this point :) ) using game outcome probabilities
derived via Massey ratings. For the data scientists on the board, stating some upfront assumptions that represent limitations of the work:

For ease in simulation computations, as well as not having the exact formula to update Massey ratings in the middle of the simulation (i.e. run the simulation "hot"), I assumed:

1) each game was independent of each other
2) Massey ratings, and by extension, game outcome probabilities were static (in practice, when a team wins a game, their Massey rating improves slightly, and thereby future game outcome probabilities likely improve slightly too, dependent on movement in the opponent's rating). 

I ran the simulation 100,000 times in R. With the above limitations, I found that the most likely outcome, in keeping with presented statistics on the Massey web site, would be for a 35-17 finish, with an 11-12 Pac-12 record. The distribution of Pac-12 wins was fairly normally distributed, centered around 11 wins (with a 20% chance of finishing with exactly 11 Pac-12 wins). 

For perspective, 11 Pac-12 wins (with already at least one rainout that would have been a likely win over Cal, given 4-0 scoreline at the time of canceling the game) would represent a 8 win conference improvement over last season (remarkable, all the credit to the players and the coaches), and would be nearly the same number of Pac-12 wins (13) that we had in 2013 (our last NCAA tourney appearance, in which we were roughly the #20 team in the country, and assigned a high #2 regional seed in Lincoln, Nebraska). 

We have a 37% chance of finishing with a winning Pac-12 record (which is just amazing, given where we were just one year ago). 

Regarding overall wins (at the end of the regular season), the most likely outcome is 35 wins, with the distribution more right skewed (so our chances of 35+ wins is greater than our chances of fewer than 35 wins). We are virtually guaranteed of finishing with a winning record, with a 99.999% chance of that occurring (to quote Dr. Strange in Avengers Infinity War: "how many scenarios do we [lose] 1." 1 simulation out of 100,000 had us finishing with a .500 record or worse). The analysis also indicates that we have only ~1% chance of finishing with 30 or fewer wins. By the same token, we have ~2% chance of finishing with 40+ wins. 

I can provide other statistics that others might be interested in, but in summary, we don't even need a simulation to tell us how much of a rousing success this season has been. The NCAA tournament drought is almost undoubtedly over, and the bigger question might be whether we host or not. With regards to that question, I think we need to finish with a winning Pac-12 record to host (given the Pac-12 is slightly down compared to prior years, and the Big 12 has nearly caught the Pac-12 in RPI for the second best conference; there is one lock in OU to host, and three other strong contenders just out of the Big 12 (Texas, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech). Pac-12 has three lock hosts in UW, UCLA and Arizona. SEC has several locks in Tennessee, Alabama, Florida, LSU, and several other contenders to host such as Auburn, Ole Miss and Kentucky. Florida State out of the ACC is a lock to host. Minnesota is a strong contender to host out of Big 10. ULL is also a contender to host out of Sun Belt.

We are #18 currently in RPI, which means we are likely just on the outside of the top 16 teams that host. Given what my analysis projected as the most likely outcome, I have this weird feeling that the Cal Game #3 rainout that we likely would have won might loom large in a hosting decision. However, this is why we play the games, so let's beat our projected finish (starting with the Ducks this weekend).