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Women's Tennis: Huskies and Cougars - ColoradoTree - 04-02-2019
This weekend, #5 Stanford welcomes #15 Washington and #36 Washington State to town, with the Cougars up first for a rematch on Friday at 1:30pm, and the Huskies to follow on Saturday at noon.
Season so far
Stanford (14-1, 5-0) just survived the toughest road trip of the season, with 4-3 wins over both UCLA and USC. Just one loss, to #1 Georgia.
Washington (15-1, 5-0) is ranked as high as it is on the strength of two marquee 4-3 wins, over #10 N.C. State and #14 Kansas. The one loss was 4-0 to Vanderbilt at National Indoors, and it was headed toward 6-0 (they didn't play doubles due to squeezing in a bunch of weather-delayed matches).
Washington State (17-5, 2-3) is a big of an enigma. They have a few good wins over ranked teams (albeit lower-ranked ones) but took narrow losses to Utah and Colorado, and got blanked by Arizona State. They also lost to us and to Gonzaga.
Last year
We played these two teams on the road last year, and played both matches indoors (which was to their advantage), and won both matches 4-2. Against WSU, we got the doubles point and a win from Lampl to go up 2-0 before Arbuthnott lost on Court 4 to make it 2-1. Lord won a close one at #2 to put us one match away before Gordon lost in three sets to Bayerlova at #1, leaving just Shin and Higuchi on court, who had to wait to start because WSU has just four indoor courts. Shin won easily, 6-2, 6-0, to clinch the team win, leaving Higuchi's match unfinished in the third set.
Against UW, we also won doubles, but UW tied it up right away with a very quick win over Lampl at #3. Arbuthnott got us a 2-1 lead with a routine win of her own, and Shin made it 3-1 by the same scoreline. But Lord then lost in 3 sets to make it 3-2, with both Higuchi and Gordon in third sets. Higuchi won her third set 6-1 to clinch the match, leaving Gordon's battle with Fung unfinished at 3-3 in the third.
At Pac-12s last year, Stanford had a much easier time of it, beating UW and WSU by 4-0 scores. Against UW, the recipe was doubles, Higuchi, Lord, and Lampl (with both Lord and Lampl avenging losses from a couple weeks before), with Stanford leading on Courts 1, 4, and 5 when the match was abandoned. Against WSU, it was doubles, Higuchi, Arbuthnott, and Gordon (with Arbuthnott and Gordon avenging losses from a couple weeks before), with Shin looking solid while Lord was in a second-set tiebreaker and Lampl was about to start a third set.
Earlier this year, Stanford got WSU at home for the ITA Kick-Off Weekend and won 4-0 behind doubles and easy wins from Arbuthnott, Lord, and Shin. (Gordon, Lampl, and Higuchi were each just one game away from winning their matches as well when the match was clinched.)
Analysis
These were very competitive matches last year indoors on the road, but less so on a neutral outdoor court. At home, I expect us to do well, winning doubles in each match and relying on our back courts to deliver wins. Gordon will have two tough matches on Court 1, and Wong is an excellent player as well, so Lord will have her hands full against UW. But our depth should be too tough for these teams to match, and I see no reason why the match against WSU should be any different than it was in January, when Stanford was in control of every match. (The exception is Court 1, where Bayerlova is a tough out, and I'd expect more of a struggle there.) That said, UW in particular has showed flashes this year, beating a couple of Top 10-caliber teams. When UW beat NC State, the recipe was doubles and wins from Wong at 2, Gallagher at 5, and Zupancic at 6. Against Kansas, they lost doubles but got wins from Wong at 2, Kopcalic at 3, Arakawa at 4, and Zupancic at 6. So, Lord and Higuchi will need to be tough, but they're usually tough.
How to watch: http://streamingtennis.com/Cardinal/
Lineups
(These are projected based on health and each school's usual lineups; we won't know the actual lineups until right before the match)
Stanford
1. #36 Michaela Gordon (8-4 in dual matches) (down 8)
2. #35 Melissa Lord (11-3) (up 12)
3. #59 Caroline Lampl (13-0) (down 1)
4. #22 Emily Arbuthnott (12-1) (down 5)
5. #74 Janice Shin (11-3) (down 17)
6. #93 Emma Higuchi (9-3) (down 12)
1. #15 Lampl/Yee (8-2) (down 3)
2. #25 Arbuthnott/Gordon (7-2) (down 7)
3. #36 Lord/Madurawe (11-2) (up 5)
Note: Sara Choy is still ranked (#97, down 14), but Madurawe has dropped off the rankings.
Washington
1. #95 Stacey Fung (9-5)
2. Vanessa Wong (14-1)
3. Katarina Kopcalic (10-4)
4. Natsuho Arakawa (10-2)
5. Sedona Gallagher (11-2)
6. Nika Zupancic (7-1)
1. #38 Fung/Zupancic (9-3)
2. Wong/Weil (6-3)
3. Hance/Gallagher (6-2)
Note: we might also see Kenadi Hance in the singles lineup, who has gone 5-5 on Court 4 this year, but has mostly just played doubles of late.
Washington State
1. #57 Michaela Bayerlova (13-2)
2. Tiffany Mylonas (often flips with Sato) (13-4)
3. Hikaru Sato (10-6)
4. Savanna Ly-Nguyen (13-5)
5. Yang Lee (6-2)
6. Aneta Miksovska (11-3)
1. #75 Mylonas/Sato (11-5)
2. Ates/Lee (11-5)
3. Miksovska/Bayerlova (7-4)
Note: Unlike UW, WSU has done a lot of lineup shuffling, with only Bayerlova playing all of her matches as the unquestioned #1. But Mylonas has played 2 and 3, Sato has played 1-3, Ly-Nguyen has played 3 and 4, Miksovska and Ates have both played 4-6, and Lee has played 5 and 6.
RE: Women's Tennis: Huskies and Cougars - Spiny_Norman - 04-02-2019
Stanford will be celebrating the seniors at the UW match, the final home match of the season.
https://gostanford.com/news/2019/4/2/womens-tennis-senior-celebration.aspx
RE: Women's Tennis: Huskies and Cougars - ColoradoTree - 04-03-2019
Other matches to keep an eye on this week:
Wednesday, April 3:
#8 UCLA vs. #9 Pepperdine (1:30pm) (UCLA and USC also host the mountain schools, but there shouldn't be any surprises there.)
Friday, April 5:
#2 UNC vs. #13 Florida State
#7 Texas vs. #48 TCU
#28 LSU vs. #16 Texas A&M
Sunday, April 7:
#2 UNC vs. #22 Wake Forest
#6 Vanderbilt vs. #46 Ole Miss
#7 Texas vs. #29 Texas Tech
RE: Women's Tennis: Huskies and Cougars - 82lsju - 04-03-2019
weather forecast for Friday
Quote:Rain. High near 64. South southwest wind 11 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=37.4296&lon=-122.1648#.XKUgoZhKiLI
RE: Women's Tennis: Huskies and Cougars - ColoradoTree - 04-03-2019
(04-03-2019, 02:09 PM)82lsju Wrote: weather forecast for Friday
Quote:Rain. High near 64. South southwest wind 11 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=37.4296&lon=-122.1648#.XKUgoZhKiLI
Stanford is going to need to build an indoor tennis facility at this rate! We've had one match cancelled entirely this year due to rain, Santa Clara rescheduled, and UC Davis rescheduled twice. Last year, we had two home rainouts (Pepperdine and Colorado) where the matches weren't made up.
Looks like it's going to rain all morning and afternoon, but the evening is clear, though I don't know exactly when the rain is supposed to stop--if it's too late in the afternoon, we won't get the courts dry in time to play a night match. If we don't get the rematch against Wazzu in, it's not the end of the world, since hopefully we're not in the position of counting a win over WSU in our 9 best after Pac-12s, though beating Bayerlova would be helpful for Gordon to make the NCAA singles tournament (I wish they would have played out that first match, sigh). Saturday's match is the one I really hope doesn't get rained out, so it's good that the weather looks clear for now.
Serious thought: if Stanford ever wants to host the NCAAs in tennis again, they should think about an indoor facility, even if it's just four courts. Or build a roof over Taube South.
RE: Women's Tennis: Huskies and Cougars - ColoradoTree - 04-05-2019
Stanford gets the doubles point and we’re up 1-0 heading into singles.
First sets already booked by Arbuthnott, Lord, Gordon, Lampl, and Higuchi. Shin is down 5-4 in the first. Gordon and Arbuthnott are the closest to finish—unsurprising from Emily, but that’s awesome for Michaela!
Stanford leads 2-0 as Arbuthnott books a 6-2, 6-0 win. Meanwhile, Gordon is thrashing Bayerlova 6-2, 5-0 and looks on the verge of making it 3-0.
RE: Women's Tennis: Huskies and Cougars - martyup - 04-05-2019
4-0 Stanford! Keep rolling Cardinal.
RE: Women's Tennis: Huskies and Cougars - oldalum - 04-05-2019
I noticed that for doubles there appeared to be a sideline ref on the side opposite the chair ref, to oversee calls where the chair ref has the hardest time seeing the ball well enough to overrule a player (the far sideline). I've seen them before but didn't appreciate what they were doing. Seems like a good idea. I assume it's the 3 singles refs who would otherwise be idle for doubles.
RE: Women's Tennis: Huskies and Cougars - ColoradoTree - 04-06-2019
FYI, UW knocked off Cal 4-3 behind the doubles point and singles wins on Courts 4-6. That’ll be a nice rankings booster for UW, making a win today all the more valuable.
RE: Women's Tennis: Huskies and Cougars - ColoradoTree - 04-06-2019
Early edge in doubles:
1. Lampl/Yee trail 1-3
2. Arbuthnott/Gordon lead 4-1
3. Lord/Madurawe lead 4-1
On the verge of the doubles point:
1. Lampl/Yee trail 2-3 (back on serve)
2. Arbuthnott/Gordon win 6-1
3. Lord/Madurawe lead 5-2
And there's the doubles point, as Lord/Madurawe win 6-2 just after Lampl/Yee knotted it back up at 3-3. Winning the doubles point over a Top 15 team in under 30 minutes? Goodness....
Stanford 1, Washington 0 heading into singles.
Singles lineups are as expected:
1. #36 Michaela Gordon vs. #95 Stacey Fung
2. #35 Melissa Lord vs. Vanessa Wong
3. #59 Caroline Lampl vs. Katarina Kopcalic
4. #22 Emily Arbuthnott vs. Natsuho Arakawa
5. #74 Janice Shin vs. Sedona Gallagher
6. #93 Emma Higuchi vs. Nika Zupančič
RE: Women's Tennis: Huskies and Cougars - ColoradoTree - 04-06-2019
Stanford 1, Washington 0
1. Gordon tied 4-4
2. Lord leads 6-3, 1-1
3. Lampl leads 5-4 (as is common in Lampl's matches, she is struggling to win her own serve but is returning like a beast)
4. Arbuthnott leads 6-5
5. Shin leads 5-3
6. Higuchi leads 5-4 (up a break)
A lot of tight matches; UW is a very good team.
Stanford 1, Washington 0
1. Gordon tied 5-5
2. Lord leads 6-3, 3-3
3. Lampl leads 6-4, 2-0
4. Arbuthnott leads 7-5, 1-0 (she won the first 2, lost the next 5, and then won the next 5 to take the set)
5. Shin leads 6-3, 2-0 (she started slow but really turned it on)
6. Higuchi leads 6-4, 1-0
RE: Women's Tennis: Huskies and Cougars - BostonCard - 04-06-2019
[tweet]https://twitter.com/stanfordwtennis/status/1114642923776237568?s=21[/tweet]
BC
RE: Women's Tennis: Huskies and Cougars - martyup - 04-06-2019
Sweet! Smoked em.
RE: Women's Tennis: Huskies and Cougars - oldalum - 04-06-2019
We smoked 'em in doubles, but the singles matches were very competitive, and early on we were actually down. The 4-0 does not reveal how competitive the match was.
RE: Women's Tennis: Huskies and Cougars - martyup - 04-06-2019
No. 5 Stanford 4, No. 15 Washington 0
DOUBLES
1) No. 15 Lampl/Kimberly Yee (STAN) vs. No. 38 Fung/Zupancic (WASH) 3-3, unfinished
2) No. 25 Arbuthnott/Gordon (STAN) d. Zoey Weil/Wong (WASH) 6-1
3) No. 36 Lord/Niluka Madurawe (STAN) d. Arakawa/Kenadi Hance (WASH) 6-2
Order of Finish: 2, 3
SINGLES
1) No. 28 Michaela Gordon (STAN) led No. 95 Stacey Fung (WASH) 7-6 (5), 2-0, unfinished
2) No. 47 Melissa Lord (STAN) d. Vanessa Wong (WASH) 6-3, 6-4
3) No. 58 Caroline Lampl (STAN) d. Katarina Kopcalic (WASH) 6-4, 6-3
4) No. 22 Emily Arbuthnott (STAN) d. Natsuho Arakawa (WASH) 7-5, 6-3
5) No. 57 Janice Shin (STAN) led Sedona Gallagher (WASH) 6-3, 4-4, unfinished
6) No. 81 Emma Higuchi (STAN) led Nika Zupancic (WASH) 6-4, 5-2, unfinished
Order of Finish: 2, 3, 4
RE: Women's Tennis: Huskies and Cougars - ColoradoTree - 04-08-2019
Rankings Update
New rankings won't be out until tomorrow, but based on results, I think we should be #3, though only narrowly ahead of Duke and still well behind UNC and Georgia.
Now that we're in the last few weeks of the season, CollegeTennisRanks.com is including a "projected rankings" feature and a "What If" feature that allows you to select the results from the upcoming week's matches so you can determine the impact on the next week's rankings. (This is lovely, as now I don't have to do any more math this season.) But FWIW, here is their projection for tomorrow's rankings for teams on our schedule this year:
2. Georgia (L, down 1)
3. Stanford (up 2)
6. Texas (W, up 1)
7. Vanderbilt (W, down 1)
10. UCLA (W, down 2)
13. USC (W, down 2)
15. Washington (W, same)
17. Cal (up 2)
28. LSU (W, same)
38. Arizona State (W, up 6)
39. Princeton (W, down 2)
42. Washington State (W, down 6)
46. Utah (down 7)
Pac-12 Update
Weekend Results
* While Stanford beat both UW and WSU, Cal lost 3-4 to UW while beating WSU 4-3.
* UCLA lost 3-4 to Pepperdine last Wednesday, but had no trouble with CU and Utah, winning both matches 4-0.
* USC won a midweek match over Cal State Fullerton 5-2 before also dispatching with CU and Utah by 4-0 scores.
* Both ASU and Arizona beat #42 Denver by 4-3 scores.
* Oregon was idle. FYI, we now know why Sangwan hasn't been on the Ducks' roster or lineup the last few weeks. After losing a third-set tiebreaker to WSU's Bayerlova, she signed a voluntary withdrawal statement the following Thursday, two days before they were set to play USC. She posted the withdrawal statement (in which she stated she was voluntarily leaving the team and releasing Oregon from further obligatoin to pay for athletically-related financial aid) on her Instagram, apparently: https://www.dailyemerald.com/sports/oregon-senior-shweta-sangwan-voluntarily-leaves-program/article_eff8cd66-55d9-11e9-98a9-b3621c418e78.html. Still don't know the backstory there, but it's official: Oregon's best player has left the team.
Updated Standings
1. #5 Stanford (16-1, 7-0)
T2. #15 Washington (16-2, 6-1)
T2. #11 USC (16-3, 6-1)
T2. #8 UCLA (14-5, 6-1)
5. #19 Cal (10-6, 4-3)
6. Colorado (10-10, 3-4)
7. #44 Arizona State (10-9, 3-5)
8. #39 Utah (11-8, 2-5)*
9. #36 Washington State (17-7, 2-5)
10. Arizona (10-10, 1-7)
11. Oregon (6-13, 0-8)
*Utah seeded ahead of WSU based on head-to-head win.
RE: Women's Tennis: Huskies and Cougars - ColoradoTree - 04-08-2019
Looking ahead to NCAAs
In the last couple of weeks of the regular season, and heading into Pac-12s, it's good to consider a couple of rules, one formal and one a rule of thumb. First, in order to be eligible for NCAA at-large selection, your record must be at least .500. Second, the cutoff for at-large teams is usually right around 40, with automatic bids filling out the rest of the 64-team field. So, we've got 5 teams that are basically locks, and a few other teams who should be sweating right now. Finally, recall that this year you can basically think of the bracket like you think of baseball's--there are now super regionals matching up regional winners, leaving 8 teams for the final site rather than the 16 from past years.
The website slam.tennis (still relatively new in the landscape--I noticed them in the leadup to last year's NCAAs, and it was a supremely helpful way of looking at information) is doing a Bracketology feature this year: https://slam.tennis/bracketology/ncaaw
In short, Stanford is pegged as a super regional host; UCLA, USC, and UW are tabbed for the moment as regional hosts that would travel for a super regional date; Cal is right on the cusp of hosting a regional but falling just short; ASU and WSU are in the "Last 4 in," Utah is in the "First 4 out," and Arizona (!) is in the "Next 4 out." Aside from Arizona being considered at all, this is pretty much what a look at the projected rankings would tell you, but it does underscore how close things are right now for ASU, WSU, Utah, and even Arizona in the last couple of weeks of the season.
Remaining regular season schedules for bubble teams:
Utah: vs. Loyola Marymount (a decent team, though unranked), vs. Stanford, vs. Cal, vs. Colorado
ASU: vs. Oregon, vs. Arizona
WSU: vs. UCLA, vs. USC, vs. UW
Arizona: vs. Oregon, at Arizona State
Based on that, I think ASU and Utah get in, while WSU and Arizona fall short. WSU's schedule is just too tough, it's hard to see ASU losing at home to Arizona with NCAAs possibly on the line. Loyola and Colorado would both be two of Utah's better wins, and even if it loses to Stanford and Cal, Utah might have just enough to get over the line. Even if Arizona beat Oregon, that wouldn't move the needle enough because Oregon has been so atrocious this year.
Of course, upsets at the Pac-12 tournament could change all of that. Assuming they follow the same format as last year (top 5 seeds get byes, you have first round matchups of 8 vs. 9, 6 vs. 11, and 7 vs. 10), and if the rest of the regular season plays out like I suspect (USC beats UCLA, both LA schools beat UW, Stanford beats Cal, etc.), you'd see the following:
First round:
(8) Colorado vs. (9) WSU
(6) ASU vs. (11) Oregon
(7) Utah vs. (10) Arizona
Quarterfinals:
(1) Stanford vs. (9) WSU
(4) UW vs. (5) Cal
(3) UCLA vs. (6) ASU
(2) USC vs. (7) Utah
Another win for Utah over Arizona is helpful but not earth-shaking, and WSU might get some help from beating CU, but ASU gets no credit for beating Oregon. I don't see ASU beating UCLA in the quarters, but if they did, it would cement a bid. Nor do I see Utah beating SC or WSU beating us, for that matter. UW would surely be a regional host if it beat Cal in the QFs, while Cal beating UW might not be enough to climb back up to the top 16, depending on other results. For the conference's sake, I'd like to see one of UW, UCLA, or USC win out to try and be a super regional host, and my hunch is that it'll be USC doing that (they already beat UCLA once this year, and now they get them on USC's campus; I feel like UW is a small but noticeable step below each of the LA schools). Having those teams split is the worst option, because no one would climb high enough to be a super regional host.
There is a lot of bunching at the margins here, so the difference between the #8 team's ranking score and the #9 team's score will be relatively small, but the outcome (one team gets to host the other) is crucial. The same goes for the difference between the teams ranked between 12th and 20th or so, where one total point in rankings average will determine whether you host two tournament rounds or go on the road. Same goes for the teams on the bubble of making the tournament at all.
RE: Women's Tennis: Huskies and Cougars - ColoradoTree - 04-08-2019
Pac-12 schedule this week:
* UCLA and USC travel to Seattle and Pullman
* Stanford and Cal travel to Salt Lake City and Boulder
* ASU and Arizona host Oregon
* Before heading to the Pacific Northwest, however, USC hosts one last marquee non-conference match vs. Pepperdine. That would be a very valuable win in USC's quest to not just be a regional host but a super-regional host. (FWIW, using the "what if" calculator on collegetennisranks.com and inputting just the anticipated results from UCLA, USC, UW, WSU, Stanford, Cal, Utah, and Colorado--which is of limited utility because other teams will also be playing matches and will gain/lose rankings points--it would see Stanford stay at #3, USC climb all the way to #6 behind the Pepperdine win and the UW/WSU away wins, UCLA get back to #7, Cal climb to #15, and UW drop to #17.)
National schedule this week:
Tuesday, April 9:
#13 USC vs. #8 Pepperdine
Wednesday, April 10:
#4 Duke vs. #9 N.C. State
Friday, April 12:
#5 Stanford at #46 Utah
#7 Vanderbilt at #18 Tennessee
#1 UNC at #33 Georgia Tech
#4 Duke vs. #31 Syracuse
#2 Georgia vs. #24 Kentucky
#10 UCLA at #42 Washington State
#13 USC at #15 Washington
Saturday, April 13:
#3 South Carolina at #23 Florida
Sunday, April 14:
#6 Vanderbilt at #1 Georgia
#4 Duke vs. #41 Boston College
#10 UCLA at #15 Washington
#13 USC at #42 Washington State
#19 Cal at #46 Utah
RE: Women's Tennis: Huskies and Cougars - oldalum - 04-08-2019
(04-08-2019, 11:35 AM)ColoradoTree Wrote: The website slam.tennis (still relatively new in the landscape--I noticed them in the leadup to last year's NCAAs, and it was a supremely helpful way of looking at information) is doing a Bracketology feature this year: https://slam.tennis/bracketology/ncaaw
Any idea why they are projecting UNC as the NCAA #1 seed rather than Georgia?
RE: Women's Tennis: Huskies and Cougars - ColoradoTree - 04-08-2019
(04-08-2019, 01:55 PM)oldalum Wrote:(04-08-2019, 11:35 AM)ColoradoTree Wrote: The website slam.tennis (still relatively new in the landscape--I noticed them in the leadup to last year's NCAAs, and it was a supremely helpful way of looking at information) is doing a Bracketology feature this year: https://slam.tennis/bracketology/ncaaw
Any idea why they are projecting UNC as the NCAA #1 seed rather than Georgia?
Looks like for these preliminary assessments, they're defaulting to projected ITA ranking, and they'll delve into more difficult questions like UNC-UGA in their final projections, as they acknowledge that based on current resumes, Georgia would likely be the #1 overall seed:
https://twitter.com/slam10s/status/1115290639997050880
and
https://twitter.com/slam10s/status/1115267785431703552
(Sorry, I thought I remembered how to embed tweets, but my method isn't working)