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Baseball postseason outlook - StanfordMatt - 05-15-2019

Baseball America and D1Baseball released their latest projected brackets today in which Stanford received the #9 and #10 seeds, respectively. Both sites have the Card on the outside looking in for a top 8 seed despite both of them ranking Stanford #3 in their top 25 polls. As has been discussed previously, the reason for the discrepancy lies in our RPI. As of this morning, our RPI ranks #14, essentially third in a three-way tie for 12th place with Texas A&M and UC Santa Barbara.

Looking ahead, we have seven games remaining including our final two conference series, home versus OSU and away at ASU, sandwiched around a midweek home game against Ryan Garko's Pacific club. We currently sit at 38-9 overall and in a three-way tie for the PAC-12 lead with UCLA and OSU at 19-5. UCLA holds the tiebreaker over both us and the Beavers having won both series. The Bruins also have the benefit of having the easiest schedule down the stretch, facing the Huskies at home before traveling to Eugene next weekend for a series with the Ducks. Anything can happen, but hard to see UCLA doing any worse than 4-2 in these games. As a result, repeating as outright conference champions may be a task a bit too tall for Stanford, but claiming a share of the title certainly isn't out of the question.

As far as what it will take to claim a top 8 seed, my best guess is that a 6-1 record over the next two weeks should guarantee it while 4-3 or worse probably precludes the possibility. I think 5-2 is where things get interesting, and the finishes of other teams may come into play. For those inclined to scoreboard watch, our closest competitors for the final #8 seed appear to be Texas Tech, East Carolina, Louisville, Georgia, Georgia Tech and Oklahoma State - Oregon State as well but we'll have a say in how the Beavers finish.


RE: Baseball postseason outlook - GK3 - 05-16-2019

(05-15-2019, 04:00 PM)StanfordMatt Wrote:  Baseball America and D1Baseball released their latest projected brackets today in which Stanford received the #9 and #10 seeds, respectively. Both sites have the Card on the outside looking in for a top 8 seed despite both of them ranking Stanford #3 in their top 25 polls. As has been discussed previously, the reason for the discrepancy lies in our RPI. As of this morning, our RPI ranks #14, essentially third in a three-way tie for 12th place with Texas A&M and UC Santa Barbara.

Looking ahead, we have seven games remaining including our final two conference series, home versus OSU and away at ASU, sandwiched around a midweek home game against Ryan Garko's Pacific club. We currently sit at 38-9 overall and in a three-way tie for the PAC-12 lead with UCLA and OSU at 19-5. UCLA holds the tiebreaker over both us and the Beavers having won both series. The Bruins also have the benefit of having the easiest schedule down the stretch, facing the Huskies at home before traveling to Eugene next weekend for a series with the Ducks. Anything can happen, but hard to see UCLA doing any worse than 4-2 in these games. As a result, repeating as outright conference champions may be a task a bit too tall for Stanford, but claiming a share of the title certainly isn't out of the question.

As far as what it will take to claim a top 8 seed, my best guess is that a 6-1 record over the next two weeks should guarantee it while 4-3 or worse probably precludes the possibility. I think 5-2 is where things get interesting, and the finishes of other teams may come into play. For those inclined to scoreboard watch, our closest competitors for the final #8 seed appear to be Texas Tech, East Carolina, Louisville, Georgia, Georgia Tech and Oklahoma State - Oregon State as well but we'll have a say in how the Beavers finish.    

6-1, taking at least 5 from OSU and ASU with 3 games in Arizona.  A mighty tall order for our guys.  It is going to demand everyone bring their A game hitting, pitching and fielding.  I am more inclined to think we will be 5-2 at best.  Going to be interesting.


RE: Baseball postseason outlook - CTcard - 05-16-2019

This is one of those things that really aggravates me to no end, so I think I'll rant a bit.

(05-15-2019, 04:00 PM)StanfordMatt Wrote:  Baseball America and D1Baseball released their latest projected brackets today in which Stanford received the #9 and #10 seeds, respectively. Both sites have the Card on the outside looking in for a top 8 seed despite both of them ranking Stanford #3 in their top 25 polls.
So, these folks themselves clearly don't believe this is proper. You cannot think Stanford is the third best team and think they shouldn't be a top 8 seed. Of course the bracket projection is presumably what they think the NCAA will do rather than should, but neither of these publications even comments on the discrepancy. 

Quote:As has been discussed previously, the reason for the discrepancy lies in our RPI. As of this morning, our RPI ranks #14, essentially third in a three-way tie for 12th place with Texas A&M and UC Santa Barbara.
At this point, I don't think anybody really believes that the RPI is a serious power ranking. It's clear that nobody doing human rankings does, with Stanford as a primo example being generally ranked about third despite the #14 RPI. It's clear that even the NCAA doesn't as they just replaced the RPI for basketball.

Nevertheless, these projections have each chosen their top 8 seeds from the top 9 in RPI.

The question that matters is if these guys actually know anything about what the NCAA committee will do. Some years back there was strong evidence that the baseball committee was starting to come to grips that the RPI is a terrible measure - and in particular structurally biased against top teams in the west. Then, the committee started to drift back towards following the RPI. Just lately, I haven't followed so closely - so I don't know. Of course my fear is that they are correct.

Quote:Looking ahead, we have seven games remaining including our final two conference series, home versus OSU and away at ASU, sandwiched around a midweek home game against Ryan Garko's Pacific club.
Both OSU and ASU have done some damage to our and the conference's prospects lately. OSU managed to selectively crumble vs non-conference opponents lately, going 1-8 before a narrow win over Portland last Tuesday. ASU dropped a weekend series to Nebraska.
Nonetheless, ASU and OSU have good enough records that they'll still be a help on the RPI front - not so much Pacific.

Quote: As a result, repeating as outright conference champions may be a task a bit too tall for Stanford, but claiming a share of the title certainly isn't out of the question.

As far as what it will take to claim a top 8 seed, my best guess is that a 6-1 record over the next two weeks should guarantee it while 4-3 or worse probably precludes the possibility. I think 5-2 is where things get interesting, and the finishes of other teams may come into play. For those inclined to scoreboard watch, our closest competitors for the final #8 seed appear to be Texas Tech, East Carolina, Louisville, Georgia, Georgia Tech and Oklahoma State - Oregon State as well but we'll have a say in how the Beavers finish.
Barring a poor finish, it would seem Stanford making a top 8 seed overall purely comes down to whether the committee sticks closely to RPI ratings or takes into account everything else. That comes down to the idiosyncrasies of individual committee members, so its rather hard to predict. I would think that the two most helpful things Stanford can do is win both weekend series and manage at least a co-conference championship.

Here's a rundown of key features of the top 10 or so teams, in order of BA rankings.
Find the outlier.

1. UCLA         41-8,   19-5 in Pac 12/tied first, 12-0 in weekend series - BA #2 seed, D1 #1 seed
2. Vanderbilt  41-10,  20-7 in SEC/first,            10-2 in weekend series - BA #1 seed, D1 #2 seed
3. Stanford    37-9,   19-5 in Pac 12/tied first,  11-1 in weekend series - BA #9 seed, D1 #10 seed
4. Arkansas   39-13,  20-8 in SEC/second,       11-2 in weekend series - BA #3 seed, D1 #3 seed
5. Miss. St.    42-10,  18-9 in SEC/fourth,        10-2 in weekend series - BA #4 seed, D1 #4 seed
6. Georgia     39-14,  19-9 in SEC/third,          11-2 in weekend series - BA #5 seed, D1 #7 seed
7. E Carolina  39-12,  18-3 in AAC/first,           11-1 in weekend series - BA #6 seed, D1 #9 seed
8. Ga Tech    35-15,  17-10 in ACC/second,     11-1 in weekend series - BA #10 seed, D1 #6 seed
9. Texas Tch 34-14,  14-7 in Big12/second,       9-2 in weekend series - BA #8 seed, D1 #8 seed
10. Louisville 40-12,  19-8 in ACC/first,              9-4 in weekend series - BA #7 seed, D1 #5 seed


RE: Baseball postseason outlook - StanfordMatt - 05-23-2019

The quality of baseball is just so much higher in the SEC that it's only right that they have 11 teams ranked in the top 10 of the RPI. 




RE: Baseball postseason outlook - JJJ - 05-23-2019

OMG. (facepalm)


RE: Baseball postseason outlook - 76lsjumb - 05-23-2019

No, BRUTAL was LSU's win in the 2000 CWS... :-(

BTW, all this kvetching about RPI ratings, etc., seems a little "inside baseball" to me.  I'm more worried about the fact that, having watched the team play over the past few weeks, we don't exactly look to be peaking at the right time.  We have a bad tendency to get behind early.  We seem to squander scoring opportunities more than we should.  The pitching hasn't exactly been overwhelmingly dominant.  I hope I'm wrong, but I'm concerned that, top 8 seeding or not, if we don't get past what looks to me to be at least a mini-funk, post-season could end sooner than we think.


RE: Baseball postseason outlook - BostonCard - 05-23-2019

What just happened, indeed

BC


RE: Baseball postseason outlook - GK3 - 05-23-2019

(05-23-2019, 03:17 PM)76lsjumb Wrote:  No, BRUTAL was LSU's win in the 2000 CWS... :-(

BTW, all this kvetching about RPI ratings, etc., seems a little "inside baseball" to me.  I'm more worried about the fact that, having watched the team play over the past few weeks, we don't exactly look to be peaking at the right time.  We have a bad tendency to get behind early.  We seem to squander scoring opportunities more than we should.  The pitching hasn't exactly been overwhelmingly dominant.  I hope I'm wrong, but I'm concerned that, top 8 seeding or not, if we don't get past what looks to me to be at least a mini-funk, post-season could end sooner than we think.
I am afraid I agree with you.  Pitching is looking very iffy putting us behind the early in the game.  I am very worried if we have to go through the losers bracket as I don't see enough pitching to have a chance if that happens.


RE: Baseball postseason outlook - Hulk01 - 05-24-2019

The fans for almost every college team are throwing up their arms today.

16 of the top 25 teams already have posted losses,
#7 Louisville, #15 A&M, and # 22 Illinois two of them.

Numbers 3, 4, 5, 7, 10, 11, 12, 13, and 15 all have lost.

But yeah, we can't play like this and get to Wichita.
Tne Sun Devils staff isn't good;
five runs isn't a great showing,
but today should be better.


RE: Baseball postseason outlook - StanfordMatt - 05-24-2019

(05-23-2019, 06:54 PM)GK3 Wrote:  I am afraid I agree with you.  Pitching is looking very iffy putting us behind the early in the game.  I am very worried if we have to go through the losers bracket as I don't see enough pitching to have a chance if that happens.

Intuitively, I agreed with you that our pitching has been "iffy" but I had no idea just how "iffy" until I started looking at the numbers compared to last year. For example, Little gave up more earned runs last night than he gave up in all of 2018. This year, in 33.1 innings pitches, Little has given up 14 earned runs for an ERA of 3.78. Last year, in 45.1 innings pitched, he gave up THREE earned runs for an ERA of 0.60. He's not alone in this regard. Of returning players, here are our top 6 pitchers in innings this year and how their numbers stack up to 2018:

B. Beck (78.1): 2.43 ERA in 2018; 3.68 ERA in 2019
E. Miller (67.2): 4.07 ERA in 2018; 2.93 ERA in 2019
J. Palisch (50.1): 1.72 ERA in 2018; 4.47 ERA in 2019
W. Matthiessen (42.2): 2.00 ERA in 2018; 4.22 ERA in 2019
Z. Grech (38): 2.65 ERA in 2018; 3.08 ERA in 2019
J. Little (33.1): 0.60 ERA in 2018; 3.78 ERA in 2019

A couple caveats: Beck and Matthiessen have been thrust into much more challenging roles this year so it is understandable that their numbers would go down. Even still, having five of your top six returning pitchers see a decline in their ERAs is not a recipe for success. Miller is the one exception as he has no doubt done wonders for his draft stock. I would imagine we'll see him in Game 2 of our regional next weekend. All in all, our pitching has still been solid overall. This year, we rank a respectable third in the conference with a team ERA of 3.49 (compared to a league leading 2.83 in 2018). But make no mistake, this year's team is much more dependent on its bats to carry the load.

Last year's staff also benefited from the presence of two stud SPs who both went high in last year's draft - Tristan Beck and Kris Bubic. Miller has risen to the occasion, but Matthiessen as a weekend starter has always been a stopgap measure. Throw in 1st round draft pick Nico Hoerner and there are a lot of reasons to like last year's squad over this one on paper. But there is one thing about this year's team that we didn't have last year. Injury luck. Last year, Kinamon missed the whole season, Wulff missed the majority of conference play and never truly got back to 100%, and Handley was out for the stretch run. This season, Stowers missed a game early on after a collision in the outfield but I believe that is the only game a regular starter has missed this whole season due to injury. Truly remarkable.

Even with a less dominant pitching staff, I like our chances of making a run to Omaha, although Hulk, feel free to go to Wichita instead if it suits your fancy ;) This is a battle tested, tight knit group that is fully healthy (knock on wood).


RE: Baseball postseason outlook - CTcard - 05-24-2019

(05-24-2019, 10:49 AM)StanfordMatt Wrote:   there are a lot of reasons to like last year's squad over this one on paper.


The broadest stats:
2019
Runs scored/game =  6.8
Runs allowed/game = 3.9
OPS = 0.850
ERA = 3.49

2018
Runs scored/game = 6.4
Runs allowed/game = 3.4
OPS = 0.803
ERA = 2.83

2017
Runs score/game = 5.6
Runs allowed/game = 3.8
OPS = 0.767
ERA = 3.35

2019 vs 2018: Pitching is worse largely because there's no starter in the vicinity of Beck-the-elder and Bubic. The bullpen is overall as good, despite Little's problems. Scoring is up purely due to HRs (up 0.5 per game).

Both 2018 and 2019 seem broadly stronger than 2017, which I believe ended up as the #8 national seed.

But the 2018 and 2017 teams both failed in the key moment at the hands of Fullerton. One thing we know for sure about 2019, they won't fall to Fullerton.


RE: Baseball postseason outlook - StanfordMatt - 05-26-2019

As of this morning, D1 Baseball has us as the #11 seed while BA has us as the #9. Prior to yesterday’s games, they both had us as the #12 seed.

According to Boyd’s World, our RPI is currently #11. CTcard noted last night (before this morning’s update) that we were #13 in RPI so we did get a nice bump for yesterday’s win.

There’s a trio of Big 12 teams clustered around us: Texas Tech, Oklahoma State and WVU. I’m not sure how much can change on the last day, but TCU is currently playing Oklahoma State in the semifinals of the Big 12 Tournament (4-4 in T5) with the winner set to play WVU later today in the championship. Go Horned Frogs!


RE: Baseball postseason outlook - martyup - 05-26-2019

Boy, that TAWA homerun in the 9th was important.  Glad ASU got their hearts crushed at the 11th hour like we did the day before.


RE: Baseball postseason outlook - Hulk01 - 05-26-2019

Cancelled my flight to Wichita. n


RE: Baseball postseason outlook - StanfordMatt - 05-26-2019

No surprise but we are officially 1 of the 16 regional hosts. Specific seeds and the rest of the field will be announced tomorrow at 9am pst. Not expecting us to be one of the top 8 but would love to be surprised.

Edit: looking at the rest of the host sites, there could be some good tea leaves for Stanford. Despite finishing #22 in RPI, Ole Miss was selected as one of the 16 hosts.




RE: Baseball postseason outlook - CTcard - 05-26-2019

In trying to divine how the committee is rating teams, I note the following RPI rated teams (as of early this morning) are among the 16 first round hosts.

#1-11: Vandy, UCLA, UGa, MissSt, E.Car, Arkansas, Ga Tech, Ok St, WVU, Louisville, Stanford
not #12 (Tennesee)
#13-14: Texas Tech, N. Car.
not #15-18 (Texas AM, Auburn, NC State, Miami)
#19 LSU
not #20 (UC Santa Barbara)
#21 Oregon State
not #21-22 (Creighton)
#23 Mississippi

That's 6 SEC teams, 3 ACC, 3 Pac 12, 3 Big 12, 1 AAC.


RE: Baseball postseason outlook - BostonCard - 05-26-2019

Mississippi state had an epic collapse today against Vandy in the SEC final.  At one point, they had an 8 run lead, and Vandy won on a walk-off base hit.  Makes our loss against ASU look less painful.

BC


RE: Baseball postseason outlook - CTcard - 05-27-2019

(05-26-2019, 07:22 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  Mississippi state had an epic collapse today against Vandy in the SEC final.  At one point, they had an 8 run lead, and Vandy won on a walk-off base hit.  Makes our loss against ASU look less painful.

Personally, I thought our win on Saturday made our loss on Thursday less painful. More or less mirror images, though our win was more based upon a single pitch.


RE: Baseball postseason outlook - Hulk01 - 05-27-2019

My bets

1  UCLA
2  Vanderbilt
3  Mississippi State
4  Georgia Tech
5  Stanford
6  Georgia
7  Oklahoma State
8  Arkansas

9   Texas Tech
10  Louisville
11  NC State
12  North Carolina
13  Texas A&M

14  Oregon State
15  East Carolina
16  UC Santa Barbara/LSU


RE: Baseball postseason outlook - OutsiderFan - 05-27-2019

Sure would be nice for those seedings to play out.  Really would like to see Stanford get to beat UNC and return the favor from a few years ago.