Thoughts on the Northwestern Matchup

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Thoughts on the Northwestern Matchup - Snorlax94 - 08-28-2019

I see I am a significant outlier in the prediction game: I predict a low-scoring game similar to last year's against U$C, picking a Stanford win, 17-3. To my understanding, Northwestern's strength last year was its defense, and now that their QB has left for the NFL (a late-round pick), I would expect their offense to do even worse. I'm generally skeptical of previously-highly-touted transfer QBs, and even more so during their first start, so even if Hunter Johnson is the most highly-touted Northwestern recruit ever (or even if 5th year senior TJ Green starts), I just can't imagine a quarterback making his first start, flying all the way across the country to play an away game against a Power-5 team scoring big points in his first game. I would expect their playbook will be limited, the quarterback will be on a short leash, and by the second half if not sooner, the offense should become predictable and one-dimensional, like USC's offense in last year's game. Similar to the matchup against USC last year, I see Shaw eyeing a victory playing a very conservative game. Why quicken the tempo, why take chances if you believe your defense will get the stop. This could be a game where Shaw feels safe with a 10-3 lead. Facing Northwestern's defense is both worrisome and exciting. The defense was Northwestern's strength last year and they return many defenders. Northwestern scored 21 points off 3 turnovers against Utah in the Holiday Bowl -- their defense alone scored more points than the Utah team. And lest we forget, 4 years ago Northwestern stunned that 2015 Stanford team and held them without a touchdown, winning 16-6. Stanford hasn't yet proven they can score a touchdown against Northwestern, and the 2015 team had Christian McCaffrey. It's a tough defense, and I'm excited to get the first glimpses of what the Stanford offense is made of. Are the o-line's woes from 2018 over? Will we see a return of its upfront strength? Is Costello's arm legit or was he overly-reliant on dominant jump-ball receivers last year? We'll learn a lot playing against one of the most opportunistic defenses around, and this should be a good strength-on-strength matchup. In terms of tests for Stanford's defense, we'll see if it's as good as we think it can be. Adebo and Eboh should cause misery for a first-time starter. Northwestern's running game strength is its 215 lb bruiser Bowser, but Stanford hopes that this year at last it has a powerful, deep front line. So playing a big, powerful running back should provide a first glimpse of whether Stanford's d-line, an expected strength, can halt a real power back, not fall back, and not wear down. I believe Stanford's defense will be legit. If they can stymie Northwestern's offense, then Stanford can play it safe on offense, and the offense may not score more than 10 points against a very dangerous and opportunistic defense. Stanford, 17-3, with some of Stanford's points coming from the defense or ST.

RE: Thoughts on the Northwestern Matchup - CTcard - 08-28-2019

(08-28-2019, 01:35 PM)Snorlax94 Wrote: I see I am a significant outlier in the prediction game: I predict a low-scoring game similar to last year's against U$C, picking a Stanford win, 17-3.

Broadly speaking, I agree with you that this seems a likely low scoring game. For reasons you mention, Northwestern ought to be far stronger on the defensive side this year. It's not quite clear to me which side for Stanford ought to be better. The defense returns more, and top to bottom I am a little more optimistic about the personnel on that side. However, the offense has a good returning QB and several parts that at least have potential. I expect a game something like the 2015 version, though I hope with the roles reversed.

RE: Thoughts on the Northwestern Matchup - OutsiderFan - 08-29-2019

After watching the Northwestern week presser yesterday, a few things stand out. 1. KJ Costello has mastered his position and is very ready to play the game on Saturday. 2. Shaw wants to establish a run, but the goal is to be balanced. To me, balance doesn't matter as much as keeping the opponent off balance. If that means 80/20 pass, fine.  If that means 50-50 run/pass, fine.  If that means 80/20 run, fine. It will vary by opponent. Northwestern seems to be build to stop the run on defense, so more passing of the play-action variety especially early in the game seems advisable. <span style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none; display: inline !important; float: none;">They want to establish a credible running game, but are going to take what the defense gives them. 3. Stanford's offense has definitely changed. There will be a lot more quick release throws that might have been runs before, and the RBs will get more involved as receivers. KJ even said the goal on first down is a 4 yard gain, and that can come by running or passing. He said he hopes Scarlett can have 30-40 catches this year. And I believe other RBs will get catches as well.  To put this in perspective, CMac had 45 catches in his epic 2015 season. I know from watching his H.S. videos, Austin Jones can line up at WR and run routes.  Not sure about the others, but the reality is we'll see a lot more check downs to RBs and swing passes than we have seen from Stanford lately. 4. We'll see a lot more deep passing, to Fehoko and St. Brown specifically, because "they can take the top off" according to Costello. While watching Costello speak, I was struck by his command of everything Stanford will do on offense, what Northwestern will do on defense, and his ability to explain the differences from last year to this year on the Stanford offense. Hard to think the Northwestern QBs are going to be as prepared, so Costello is a giant advantage for Stanford in this game, and why I don't think it will be that close.

RE: Thoughts on the Northwestern Matchup - Hurlburt88 - 08-29-2019

Great post!

Last night listening to Chicago sports radio I heard that one of Northwestern's safeties decided to dye his dreadlocks . . . RED. Assume that will be corrected by Saturday, but I got a nice chuckle.

RE: Thoughts on the Northwestern Matchup - Renaissance Man - 08-29-2019

I looked at the season openers for the past 10 years.  Stanford is 9-1.  The average score of the 9 wins is 41-10.  Only one opener was low-scoring, and it was also the only loss.  I assume most of you know who the opponent was that day.  I will hope for a high-scoring opener--they seem to work in our favor.

RE: Thoughts on the Northwestern Matchup - Mick - 08-29-2019

(08-29-2019, 09:44 AM)Renaissance Man Wrote: I looked at the season openers for the past 10 years.  Stanford is 9-1.  The average score of the 9 wins is 41-10.  Only one opener was low-scoring, and it was also the only loss.  I assume most of you know who the opponent was that day.  I will hope for a high-scoring opener--they seem to work in our favor.

So...take Northwestern and the under or Stanford and the over, right?

RE: Thoughts on the Northwestern Matchup - BostonCard - 08-29-2019

(08-29-2019, 09:44 AM)Renaissance Man Wrote: I looked at the season openers for the past 10 years.  Stanford is 9-1.  The average score of the 9 wins is 41-10.  Only one opener was low-scoring, and it was also the only loss.  I assume most of you know who the opponent was that day.  I will hope for a high-scoring opener--they seem to work in our favor.

Also, we have won our last 11 home openers, and Shaw is 16-0 in home non-conference games.

BC

RE: Thoughts on the Northwestern Matchup - SamuelMcF - 08-29-2019

(08-29-2019, 11:57 AM)BostonCard Wrote:
(08-29-2019, 09:44 AM)Renaissance Man Wrote: I looked at the season openers for the past 10 years.  Stanford is 9-1.  The average score of the 9 wins is 41-10.  Only one opener was low-scoring, and it was also the only loss.  I assume most of you know who the opponent was that day.  I will hope for a high-scoring opener--they seem to work in our favor.

Also, we have won our last 11 home openers, and Shaw is 16-0 in home non-conference games.

BC

I had to do a double take on this one. WOW!

RE: Thoughts on the Northwestern Matchup - Spiny_Norman - 08-29-2019

(08-29-2019, 11:57 AM)BostonCard Wrote: Also, we have won our last 11 home openers, and Shaw is 16-0 in home non-conference games.

BC

Stanford has played exactly 1 road non-conference game each of Shaw's 8 years. In those 8 games, Stanford is 3-5. Shaw is 1-3 in South Bend (officially, despite what we think about the 2012 game), has lost in Evanston and San Diego and won in West Point and Durham. Based on this history and what BC has observed, we should feel good about the Northwestern game and be very anxious about the game in Orlando.

RE: Thoughts on the Northwestern Matchup - French Rage - 08-29-2019

(08-29-2019, 01:48 PM)Spiny_Norman Wrote:
(08-29-2019, 11:57 AM)BostonCard Wrote: Also, we have won our last 11 home openers, and Shaw is 16-0 in home non-conference games.

BC

Stanford has played exactly 1 road non-conference game each of Shaw's 8 years. In those 8 games, Stanford is 3-5. Shaw is 1-3 in South Bend (officially, despite what we think about the 2012 game), has lost in Evanston and San Diego and won in West Point and Durham. Based on this history and what BC has observed, we should feel good about the Northwestern game and be very anxious about the game in Orlando.

I was interested by the fact our NC home games outnumbered away by 2 to 1.  I assumed it was because up until this year we always had the always-home intra-state games (UCD/SJSU/etc.) along with a home-away opponent and Notre Dame (also a home-away opponent), so that would average out correctly.  But in 2015 we basically had the mirror of this year with NW away and UCF at home, so matching them up we should be one game below a 2:1 ratio.  But I guess that's counteracted by having the home game against KSU in 2016 where we have not had the matching away game yet.

RE: Thoughts on the Northwestern Matchup - Spiny_Norman - 08-29-2019

(08-29-2019, 02:36 PM)French Rage Wrote: 
(08-29-2019, 01:48 PM)Spiny_Norman Wrote:
(08-29-2019, 11:57 AM)BostonCard Wrote: Also, we have won our last 11 home openers, and Shaw is 16-0 in home non-conference games.

BC

Stanford has played exactly 1 road non-conference game each of Shaw's 8 years. In those 8 games, Stanford is 3-5. Shaw is 1-3 in South Bend (officially, despite what we think about the 2012 game), has lost in Evanston and San Diego and won in West Point and Durham. Based on this history and what BC has observed, we should feel good about the Northwestern game and be very anxious about the game in Orlando.

 I was interested by the fact our NC home games outnumbered away by 2 to 1.  I assumed it was because up until this year we always had the always-home intra-state games (UCD/SJSU/etc.) along with a home-away opponent and Notre Dame (also a home-away opponent), so that would average out correctly.  But in 2015 we basically had the mirror of this year with NW away and UCF at home, so matching them up we should be one game below a 2:1 ratio.  But I guess that's counteracted by having the home game against KSU in 2016 where we have not had the matching away game yet.

looks like 2021 when Stanford has 2 NC away games - at Kansas State, at Vandy. And again in 2025 at Vandy and at BYU. Stanford will only have 6 home games in those years. https://fbschedules.com/ncaa/stanford/

RE: Thoughts on the Northwestern Matchup - JeffInCorvallis - 08-29-2019

(08-29-2019, 09:44 AM)Renaissance Man Wrote: I looked at the season openers for the past 10 years.  Stanford is 9-1.  The average score of the 9 wins is 41-10.  Only one opener was low-scoring, and it was also the only loss.  I assume most of you know who the opponent was that day.  I will hope for a high-scoring opener--they seem to work in our favor.

OK, but how many of those season openers were played against Sacramento St, SJS, Davis, and Rice?

RE: Thoughts on the Northwestern Matchup - French Rage - 08-29-2019

(08-29-2019, 06:54 PM)JeffInCorvallis Wrote:
(08-29-2019, 09:44 AM)Renaissance Man Wrote: I looked at the season openers for the past 10 years.  Stanford is 9-1.  The average score of the 9 wins is 41-10.  Only one opener was low-scoring, and it was also the only loss.  I assume most of you know who the opponent was that day.  I will hope for a high-scoring opener--they seem to work in our favor.

OK, but how many of those season openers were played against Sacramento St, SJS, Davis, and Rice?

'09 was Wazzou, '15 was NW, '16 was KSU, and '18 was SDSt., so surprisingly only 6.

RE: Thoughts on the Northwestern Matchup - Mick - 08-30-2019

(08-29-2019, 01:48 PM)Spiny_Norman Wrote:
(08-29-2019, 11:57 AM)BostonCard Wrote: Also, we have won our last 11 home openers, and Shaw is 16-0 in home non-conference games.

BC

Stanford has played exactly 1 road non-conference game each of Shaw's 8 years. In those 8 games, Stanford is 3-5. Shaw is 1-3 in South Bend (officially, despite what we think about the 2012 game), has lost in Evanston and San Diego and won in West Point and Durham. Based on this history and what BC has observed, we should feel good about the Northwestern game and be very anxious about the game in Orlando.

That game is being played at 9:30 a.m. body-clock time for the Stanford players after traveling east. I don't have the statistics, but I'd be interested in knowing Shaw's results in the Eastern time zone. Particularly after Northwestern and USC. I'm very concerned about that game.

RE: Thoughts on the Northwestern Matchup - needle - 08-30-2019

(08-30-2019, 06:04 AM)Mick Wrote:
(08-29-2019, 01:48 PM)Spiny_Norman Wrote:
(08-29-2019, 11:57 AM)BostonCard Wrote: Also, we have won our last 11 home openers, and Shaw is 16-0 in home non-conference games.

BC

Stanford has played exactly 1 road non-conference game each of Shaw's 8 years. In those 8 games, Stanford is 3-5. Shaw is 1-3 in South Bend (officially, despite what we think about the 2012 game), has lost in Evanston and San Diego and won in West Point and Durham. Based on this history and what BC has observed, we should feel good about the Northwestern game and be very anxious about the game in Orlando.

That game is being played at 9:30 a.m. body-clock time for the Stanford players after traveling east.  I don't have the statistics, but I'd be interested in knowing Shaw's results in the Eastern time zone.  Particularly after Northwestern and USC.  I'm very concerned about that game.

Actually, the UCF kick-off is skedded for 3:30 Eastern, so it should feel more like 12:30 for the team. 

<a href="https://gostanford.com/news/2019/5/30/football-kickoff-times-announced.aspx">https://gostanford.com/news/2019/5/30/football-kickoff-times-announced.aspx</a>

RE: Thoughts on the Northwestern Matchup - ChicagoCard - 08-30-2019

[tweet]https://twitter.com/NUOnBTN/status/1166855825329139714[/tweet]

RE: Thoughts on the Northwestern Matchup - SamuelMcF - 08-30-2019

(08-30-2019, 09:42 AM)ChicagoCard Wrote: [tweet]https://twitter.com/NUOnBTN/status/1166855825329139714[/tweet]

Of course it's the most intriguing Big 10 game this weekend. It's the only P5 vs. P5 game in their entire conference.

RE: Thoughts on the Northwestern Matchup - ADPinWDC - 08-30-2019

(08-29-2019, 09:05 AM)Hurlburt88 Wrote: Great post!   

Last night listening to Chicago sports radio I heard that one of Northwestern's safeties decided to dye his dreadlocks . . . RED.    Assume that will be corrected by Saturday, but I got a nice chuckle.

OK, so we will dye a lot of CATS red by the end of the game.... MooohooHAHA.

RE: Thoughts on the Northwestern Matchup - CTcard - 08-30-2019

(08-30-2019, 06:04 AM)Mick Wrote: I don't have the statistics, but I'd be interested in knowing Shaw's results in the Eastern time zone. 

By my count, under Shaw Stanford is <strike>3-2</strike> <strike>2-3</strike> 3-3 in football games in the Eastern time zone. I believe three losses in South Bend. Wins in Durham, West Point and South Bend. [Credit to Spiny, Terry.] Stanford also had a loss at Northwestern which is in the central time zone, but it's still far away and the game started at 9:00 am Pacific (11:00 am Central). Stanford is also 1-0 in games in the Australian Eastern time zone, which I believe would have been +17 hours from Palo Alto at the time.

RE: Thoughts on the Northwestern Matchup - Spiny_Norman - 08-30-2019

(08-30-2019, 11:42 AM)CTcard Wrote: 
(08-30-2019, 06:04 AM)Mick Wrote: I don't have the statistics, but I'd be interested in knowing Shaw's results in the Eastern time zone. 
 By my count, under Shaw Stanford is 3-2 in football games in the Eastern time zone. I believe both losses were in South Bend. Wins in Durham, and South Bend twice. Stanford also had a loss at Northwestern which is in the central time zone, but it's still far away and the game started at 9:00 am Pacific (11:00 am Central). Stanford is also 1-0 in games in the Australian Eastern time zone, which I believe would have been +17 hours from Palo Alto at the time.

CTcard, isn't Shaw 1-3 in South Bend? Losses in 2012 (at least, according to the officials), 2014 and 2018.