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Wilner on need for Pac-12 Football staff changes - Printable Version

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Wilner on need for Pac-12 Football staff changes - OutsiderFan - 12-04-2019

Featuring Washington and Stanford, and pointing to Herm Edwards as the example to follow.

Sorry if this was posted earlier, and this was published before Petersen stepped down...

https://www.mercurynews.com/2019/12/02/improvement-required-chris-petersen-and-david-shaw-and-other-pac-12-coaches-must-consider-staff-changes/


RE: Wilner on need for Pac-12 Football staff changes - qwerty49 - 12-04-2019

I don't like to give Wilner clicks, so I'll go out on a limb and just guess he reiterates what he's obviously already read on the Stanford fanboards.  The tell on his sourcing is that he's never in front of the Stanford issues and is always responding to something that's been hashed out for at least several days on TOS and here.

If I'm right, this should get merged into the "Stanford football sucks" thread.


RE: Wilner on need for Pac-12 Football staff changes - Phogge - 12-04-2019

I understand that every time you give Wilner a click his ego increases by 10%.


RE: Wilner on need for Pac-12 Football staff changes - winflop - 12-04-2019

Not gonna give the Clickbaiter-in-Chief what he wants, and even a broken clock is right twice a day


RE: Wilner on need for Pac-12 Football staff changes - OutsiderFan - 12-04-2019

It's not clickbait.  It's actually some very well-reasoned and fact-based arguments, particularly about Washington.


RE: Wilner on need for Pac-12 Football staff changes - BostonCard - 12-04-2019

I posted the link to it elsewhere. I think it says what people have inferred. Not sure it is that insightful to basically say what many posters on here have said or believe.

I also posted a link to a blog post on whether changing coordinators makes a difference.  It appears that changing offensive coordinators doesn’t make much of a difference in the first two years after a coordinator change; changing defensive coordinators makes a small difference.

I think it goes back to the old adage that it is about the “jesses and joes and not the x’s and o’s.”

BC


RE: Wilner on need for Pac-12 Football staff changes - oldalum - 12-04-2019

(12-04-2019, 02:52 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  Not sure it is that insightful to basically say what many posters on here have said or believe.
hmmm, wonder where he got those insights . . .


RE: Wilner on need for Pac-12 Football staff changes - CTcard - 12-04-2019

(12-04-2019, 02:52 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  I posted the link to it elsewhere. I think it says what people have inferred. Not sure it is that insightful to basically say what many posters on here have said or believe.

I also posted a link to a blog post on whether changing coordinators makes a difference.  It appears that changing offensive coordinators doesn’t make much of a difference in the first two years after a coordinator change; changing defensive coordinators makes a small difference.

I think it goes back to the old adage that it is about the “jesses and joes and not the x’s and o’s.”

BC

I think the antipathy towards Wilner is overdone in these parts. He is the only Bay Area member of a main stream media outlet who seems to even try to write about college sports. That's worth something. 

On the other hand, he isn't all that good and I often wonder if he actually likes football. 

In this case, he has some things correct. Stanford's run game certainly collapsed after 2017. That is indeed connected to many things - some of which he lists. 
BUT, he doesn't really examine what contributed to this collapse, what might make it better, and doesn't even mention the complete inversion of what Stanford has tried to do on offense. He makes the bland statement that "the evidence doesn't favor the status quo" without stating what exactly he thinks the status quo is that has to change. Presumably he means replacing offensive coaches since he only talks about the offense and mentions Carberry and Pritchard, though also seems to say the collapse isn't their fault. 
Mostly it sounds to me like the politician's remedy described by somebody else here recently: things didn't go well so we have to do something, firing coaches is something, therefore we have to fire coaches. 

---------
By the way, a good chunk of that collapse in rush yards per game is that we simply quit trying to run the ball. Our run plays per game have been:
2015 = 43.6
2016 = 40.2
2017 = 34.3
2018 = 29.5
2019 = 28.8
[And this year that dropped significantly as the year wore on, was 21.7 attempts over final four games.]

---
I don't think a statistical analysis of new offensive/defensive coordinators is particularly useful. If a competent head coach sees a particular problem with a coordinator and has a particular idea of who would be a better coordinator, then replacing said coordinator is likely to make things better. If a coach is looking to "do something", its likely a crapshoot. If a great coordinator moves along and upwards, then the situation is most likely to get worse. Altogether its probably a wash, but those three situations are likely not statistically similar events that should be grouped together. 
[Besides, if you take the year on year changes for every offense and defense coordinator those are by definition a wash. And given the generally short tenure of football coaches, it's no real surprise that new coordinators in their first two years are generally a wash.] 

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One of the items I found strange from Wilner is the idea that Herm Edwards is the shining example that all Pac 12 coaches should follow. He simply was the first to fire a bunch of coaches this year. Whether that ends up being particularly good for ASU football remains to be seen. Edwards himself certainly hasn't come in and turned the tide of the program. 
ASU's conference record the past few years:
Edwards
2019: 4-5
2018: 5-4
Graham
2017: 6-3
2016: 2-7
2015: 4-5
2014: 6-3
2013: 8-1


RE: Wilner on need for Pac-12 Football staff changes - BostonCard - 12-04-2019

Good thoughts CT.  I agree with you on Wilner. I will occasionally read his stuff, especially when he writes about the Pac-12 networks or Pac-12 finances; he has pretty good sources there.  On the other hand, his insight on football is superficial at best, and he is prone to writing stuff that looks a lot like click-bait.  His AP poll votes, in particular, almost seem designed to draw hate-clicks to the site.

On the analysis of coaching changes, the guy who ran it did a bit more of a sophisticated analysis than just compare the results of teams who changed coaches to those who did not.  The blogger characterized the coaching changes based on press reports at the time if he could find them, and whether the assistant made a move up, a lateral move, or moved down.  Though imperfect, a coach whose next destination was less prestigious, was most likely fired.  And of course, because you expect some regression towards the mean in under-performing teams, there was a comparison to what similar teams who didn't fire their coaches did.  The analysis was by no means perfect, and you hit on some obvious flaws, but it is probably safe to say that firing coordinators is not a magic bullet.  Most likely, it is for the reason you stated, that head coaches are not firing their coordinators for a specific reason, but rather because they need to feel like they are doing something.

BC


RE: Wilner on need for Pac-12 Football staff changes - Goose - 12-04-2019

(12-04-2019, 09:41 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  Most likely, it is for the reason you stated, that head coaches are not firing their coordinators for a specific reason, but rather because they need to feel like they are doing something.


BC

BC, I would like to alter that statement to read ", but rather because they are under pressure to "do something".

If the coach really thought the coordinators were a problem and that there were better alternatives, they would get the Herm Edwards treatment. That happens, but the more common case is pressure from the AD/boosters  mandating some action to "fix the problem". The head coach then either quits, attempts to brazen it out, or fires a bunch of coordinators. The latter choice is most common. The coach is hoping that given another year, the record will improve enough to preserve his job. In some cases it does. In even fewer, it actually works. In many more it is just postponing the inevitable and the coach gets fired anyway. Having a big buyout can help there.