WBB regular season expectations

WBB regular season expectations - Printable Version

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WBB regular season expectations - JTM - 12-05-2019

I find the CardBoard fun reading. There are so many interesting threads, full of insights, facts and opinions. Let me humbly attempt to add my own. I’m going way out on a limb and predict the WBB team will enter the NCAA Tournament with 4 losses.

How will it happen? Here’s a possible scenario. The PAC-12 is loaded with excellent teams this year. On a given night, anybody can beat anybody. We play Oregon and Oregon State twice each for a total of 4 games. That’s brutal facing these two excellent teams back-to-back, twice. Assuming we do well in the PAC-12 Tournament, we are likely to meet one of them again. I expect we will lose 2 of 5.

Another loss is likely to come right after an OU-OSU weekend. One game I have circled on the calendar is with Arizona on 2/28. We will be at risk of focusing so much on OU-OSU that we will be spent after those games. We will be set up for someone like Aari McDonald to have a career night. Or we beat both OU-OSU and then relax. That’s possibly what happened tonight when “giant killer” Louisville lost to a good but unranked Ohio State team.

The last loss will probably be unexpected. We lose to some team we should beat. That happened with unranked Gonzaga last year, when it appeared they wanted it more than we did. Or it could be like the Utah game last year. Or we could be ice cold shooting, let the other team hang around, they get hot and suddenly come back into contention, like Cal Baptist. There’s all sorts of ways to get tripped-up.

Being ranked #1 has its disadvantages. We have the biggest bullseye pinned to our back. Other teams will give us their best shot. Cal has started well but doesn’t look to be as strong as us. As Tara has said, that will allow other teams to focus more on Stanford when we travel with Cal. And then there’s the wild card of injuries to add to the mix.

That’s my expectation from way out here on a limb. And will someone please put a serving of crow in the freezer for 3/8 at the end of the PAC-12 Tournament. We have an excellent team and it will be wonderful if we do better. Go Cardinal!

RE: WBB regular season expectations - qwerty49 - 12-06-2019

Nice post. I agree that it's unreasonable to expect us to go through the regular season undefeated. And it would not be surprising that we lost a game we "should have" won. I'll add a little prediction: throughout the season, we will always be the highest-ranked team of those with the same number of losses. Thus, if we are one of, say, six teams with two losses, we will be the highest-ranked of those six.

I think it will be very interesting to see how playing time is managed the remainder of this year. Tara has had a tight rotation of 7 or 8 in recent years, but it sure seems like we have more than 7-8 real contributors.

But really, my main hope is for our injured players to recover quickly and fully, and for no major injuries down the road.

RE: WBB regular season expectations - 81alum - 12-06-2019

(12-05-2019, 11:50 PM)JTM Wrote: I find the CardBoard fun reading. There are so many interesting threads, full of insights, facts and opinions. Let me humbly attempt to add my own. I’m going way out on a limb and predict the WBB team will enter the NCAA Tournament with 4 losses.

That is a reasonable prediction, and all the potential losses are the ones I would worry about as well. We are a very young but highly talented team and we have already seen some inconsistency. That usually leads to losing some winnable games. And the Oregon/Oregon State juggernaut is a very tall challenge.

From 2000-2014 we were 1st in the Pac 12 every year, and the Pac 12 was lopsidedly Stanford. Even in those years we often lost a Pac 12 game somewhere along the way. Only 4 times in those 15 years were we undefeated in Pac 12 play--and it was a heck of a lot easier to run the table then than it will be today. In those years our biggest problem was that the Pac 12 didn't give us a good enough RPI for a high level seeding in the NCAAs. Now, 3 of the top 5 teams are in the Pac 12.

There are so many variables. What will the injury situation be? Can our youngsters develop fast enough to measure up to Oregon's experience? Will we be ahead or behind the development of that other very youthful team--Oregon State? If we get healthy and develop fast I could see us having a miracle year and dropping only a game or two. But it would also be possible for Oregon alone to give us 3 losses, splitting with OSU and Arizona, dropping another somewhere else (UCLA?), etc. We could drop a game in December to Tennessee or Ohio State. My gut tells me will do better than that, but my brain says "not so fast." Anywhere from 1-7 losses seems plausible to me and your prediction is right in the middle of that range.

RE: WBB regular season expectations - BostonCard - 12-06-2019

(12-05-2019, 11:50 PM)JTM Wrote: I find the CardBoard fun reading. There are so many interesting threads, full of insights, facts and opinions. Let me humbly attempt to add my own. I’m going way out on a limb and predict the WBB team will enter the NCAA Tournament with 4 losses.

How will it happen? Here’s a possible scenario. The PAC-12 is loaded with excellent teams this year. On a given night, anybody can beat anybody. We play Oregon and Oregon State twice each for a total of 4 games. That’s brutal facing these two excellent teams back-to-back, twice. Assuming we do well in the PAC-12 Tournament, we are likely to meet one of them again. I expect we will lose 2 of 5.

Another loss is likely to come right after an OU-OSU weekend. One game I have circled on the calendar is with Arizona on 2/28. We will be at risk of focusing so much on OU-OSU that we will be spent after those games. We will be set up for someone like Aari McDonald to have a career night. Or we beat both OU-OSU and then relax. That’s possibly what happened tonight when “giant killer” Louisville lost to a good but unranked Ohio State team.

The last loss will probably be unexpected. We lose to some team we should beat. That happened with unranked Gonzaga last year, when it appeared they wanted it more than we did. Or it could be like the Utah game last year. Or we could be ice cold shooting, let the other team hang around, they get hot and suddenly come back into contention, like Cal Baptist. There’s all sorts of ways to get tripped-up.

Being ranked #1 has its disadvantages. We have the biggest bullseye pinned to our back. Other teams will give us their best shot. Cal has started well but doesn’t look to be as strong as us. As Tara has said, that will allow other teams to focus more on Stanford when we travel with Cal. And then there’s the wild card of injuries to add to the mix.

That’s my expectation from way out here on a limb. And will someone please put a serving of crow in the freezer for 3/8 at the end of the PAC-12 Tournament. We have an excellent team and it will be wonderful if we do better. Go Cardinal!

Good analysis. I think it is spot on. This is a good team, but it is a brutal Pac-12 schedule; 4 games against teams in the top-5; another two against teams in the top 20. A bunch of others against dangerous teams. We will win our share of tough games, but with our youth, it is would be unprecedented to get through that tough of a schedule undefeated.

BC

RE: WBB regular season expectations - BosCard - 12-06-2019

(12-06-2019, 12:16 AM)qwerty49 Wrote: Nice post. I agree that it's unreasonable to expect us to go through the regular season undefeated. And it would not be surprising that we lost a game we "should have" won. I'll add a little prediction: throughout the season, we will always be the highest-ranked team of those with the same number of losses. Thus, if we are one of, say, six teams with two losses, we will be the highest-ranked of those six.

I think it will be very interesting to see how playing time is managed the remainder of this year. Tara has had a tight rotation of 7 or 8 in recent years, but it sure seems like we have more than 7-8 real contributors.

But really, my main hope is for our injured players to recover quickly and fully, and for no major injuries down the road.

Tara is such a strategic tactician that I think we will continue to see a lot of different lineups depending on the opponent. And we have a lot of talented players who do different things that we can play that way. I really think this team goes 14 deep in terms of playing meaningful minutes.

I won’t talk about the starters (Williams, Lexie, Jones, Jerome or Fingall) or the injured Carrington and Dodson. Here are the situations where the remaining 7 players get in the game during meaningful minutes:

Wilson - when you need strong on ball defense on a guard and as a backup ball handler for Williams
Brown - when you need a backup ball handler for Williams and the defense is letting players drive to the basket
Jump - when you need to destroy a zone or any defense that is sagging in the paint and daring 3-pt shots
Moschkau - Same as Jump. We saw this in a game when we needed outside shooting and Jump missed several in a row. In came Moschkau and she hit a couple of big threes.
Lacie - when you need a strong defender on a bigger guard / wing
Belibi - when you need defense, particularly when you need a post defender who can also switch onto a guard. Think of how many times last year opposing guards switched on to Coffee and drove right around her. Belibi is the complete opposite of that
Prechtel - When you need size on defense (opposing stationary post) or scoring from the post position

RE: WBB regular season expectations - BobK - 12-06-2019

Lexie is Lacie :). Poor Brewer

Great post to start this.

I believe 9 will be regulars at least and agree as usual with Bos Card on his thoughts. Although 8-9 wont be the same players each night

As to losses 4 would be great with the league as it it is

So I’ve got my room at Mandalay Bay. Who else will be there ?

Next up Ohio State now a iffy game

RE: WBB regular season expectations - qwerty49 - 12-06-2019

(12-06-2019, 09:17 AM)BosCard Wrote:
(12-06-2019, 12:16 AM)qwerty49 Wrote: Nice post. I agree that it's unreasonable to expect us to go through the regular season undefeated. And it would not be surprising that we lost a game we "should have" won. I'll add a little prediction: throughout the season, we will always be the highest-ranked team of those with the same number of losses. Thus, if we are one of, say, six teams with two losses, we will be the highest-ranked of those six.

I think it will be very interesting to see how playing time is managed the remainder of this year. Tara has had a tight rotation of 7 or 8 in recent years, but it sure seems like we have more than 7-8 real contributors.

But really, my main hope is for our injured players to recover quickly and fully, and for no major injuries down the road.

Tara is such a strategic tactician that I think we will continue to see a lot of different lineups depending on the opponent. And we have a lot of talented players who do different things that we can play that way. I really think this team goes 14 deep in terms of playing meaningful minutes.

I won’t talk about the starters (Williams, Lexie, Jones, Jerome or Fingall) or the injured Carrington and Dodson. Here are the situations where the remaining 7 players get in the game during meaningful minutes:

Wilson - when you need strong on ball defense on a guard and as a backup ball handler for Williams
Brown - when you need a backup ball handler for Williams and the defense is letting players drive to the basket
Jump - when you need to destroy a zone or any defense that is sagging in the paint and daring 3-pt shots
Moschkau - Same as Jump. We saw this in a game when we needed outside shooting and Jump missed several in a row. In came Moschkau and she hit a couple of big threes.
Lacie - when you need a strong defender on a bigger guard / wing
Belibi - when you need defense, particularly when you need a post defender who can also switch onto a guard. Think of how many times last year opposing guards switched on to Coffee and drove right around her. Belibi is the complete opposite of that
Prechtel - When you need size on defense (opposing stationary post) or scoring from the post position

I agree with your take. The player I am most concerned about w/r/t her development has been Brown. Her game doesn't yet seem as well-rounded as I think a PG needs to be. Moschkau is basically the 3rd or even 4th option at her position so it's tough to evaluate her. She can shoot, we know that.

The Hulls are simply a luxury to have, two great "glue" players IMHO.

RE: WBB regular season expectations - mbdude - 12-06-2019

(12-06-2019, 11:36 AM)qwerty49 Wrote:
(12-06-2019, 09:17 AM)BosCard Wrote:
(12-06-2019, 12:16 AM)qwerty49 Wrote: Nice post. I agree that it's unreasonable to expect us to go through the regular season undefeated. And it would not be surprising that we lost a game we "should have" won. I'll add a little prediction: throughout the season, we will always be the highest-ranked team of those with the same number of losses. Thus, if we are one of, say, six teams with two losses, we will be the highest-ranked of those six.

I think it will be very interesting to see how playing time is managed the remainder of this year. Tara has had a tight rotation of 7 or 8 in recent years, but it sure seems like we have more than 7-8 real contributors.

But really, my main hope is for our injured players to recover quickly and fully, and for no major injuries down the road.

Tara is such a strategic tactician that I think we will continue to see a lot of different lineups depending on the opponent. And we have a lot of talented players who do different things that we can play that way. I really think this team goes 14 deep in terms of playing meaningful minutes.

I won’t talk about the starters (Williams, Lexie, Jones, Jerome or Fingall) or the injured Carrington and Dodson. Here are the situations where the remaining 7 players get in the game during meaningful minutes:

Wilson - when you need strong on ball defense on a guard and as a backup ball handler for Williams
Brown - when you need a backup ball handler for Williams and the defense is letting players drive to the basket
Jump - when you need to destroy a zone or any defense that is sagging in the paint and daring 3-pt shots
Moschkau - Same as Jump. We saw this in a game when we needed outside shooting and Jump missed several in a row. In came Moschkau and she hit a couple of big threes.
Lacie - when you need a strong defender on a bigger guard / wing
Belibi - when you need defense, particularly when you need a post defender who can also switch onto a guard. Think of how many times last year opposing guards switched on to Coffee and drove right around her. Belibi is the complete opposite of that
Prechtel - When you need size on defense (opposing stationary post) or scoring from the post position

I agree with your take. The player I am most concerned about w/r/t her development has been Brown. Her game doesn't yet seem as well-rounded as I think a PG needs to be. Moschkau is basically the 3rd or even 4th option at her position so it's tough to evaluate her. She can shoot, we know that.

The Hulls are simply a luxury to have, two great "glue" players IMHO.

Re: assessment of Brown - I don't think she is that strong a ball bandler, and slower to make decisions; her only move (or appears to be) is a drive to the basket with her right hand

Article from Jane Pauley about practice, finals, being no.1 No mention of an injury to Kiana
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/ncaabk/stanford-too-busy-preparing-for-finals-to-focus-on-no-1/ar-BBXSvpS#image=BBXSvpS_0|7