A forest through trees moment - Printable Version

A forest through trees moment - Printable Version

+- The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board)
+-- Forum: C-House! (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-4.html)
+--- Forum: The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-5.html)
+--- Thread: A forest through trees moment (/thread-18763.html)

Pages: 1 2

A forest through trees moment - OutsiderFan - 12-23-2019

When the deluge of Stanford portal entries hit, my initial reaction was the same as pretty much everyone's: WTF is going on with Stanford's Football program? First a 4-8 season, now all these transfers? Surely there must be something rotten going on.

But after taking in some wider perspective and looking at the roster, it dawned on me that more likely than not Shaw has nudged some guys out of the program, or at least prepared them to be nudged out, to make room for the 2020 Frosh signing class, after he knows they will have graduated.

Everyone has sort of lamented Stanford's less than aggressive recruiting, but stepping back a bit, bringing in a signing class so large when there were many possible 5th year Seniors betrays a different kind of aggressiveness. Namely, getting guys out of the program who may or may not have been really valuable contributors, to make room for players with more upside potential.

RE: A forest through trees moment - winflop - 12-23-2019

(12-23-2019, 03:59 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: When the deluge of Stanford portal entries hit, my initial reaction was the same as pretty much everyone's: WTF is going on with Stanford's Football program? First a 4-8 season, now all these transfers? Surely there must be something rotten going on.

But after taking in some wider perspective and looking at the roster, it dawned on me that more likely than not Shaw has nudged some guys out of the program, or at least prepared them to be nudged out, to make room for the 2020 Frosh signing class, after he knows they will have graduated.

Everyone has sort of lamented Stanford's less than aggressive recruiting, but stepping back a bit, bringing in a signing class so large when there were many possible 5th year Seniors betrays a different kind of aggressiveness. Namely, getting guys out of the program who may or may not have been really valuable contributors, to make room for players with more upside potential.

This totally makes sense for about half of the guys in the portal who weren't going to get PT next year. But there's a half-dozen guys who were either going to start for sure (Swann, Williams, Hamilton) or be backups at worst (Pryts, Hattis, Powell, Eboh, Costello). It's this latter group that concerns me because if they were happy with the program I don't think this many would be in the portal.

Something is broken is Shaw's house. The questions are whether a) he realizes it, and b) what if anything he does about it.

RE: A forest through trees moment - cardcrimson - 12-23-2019

(12-23-2019, 03:59 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: When the deluge of Stanford portal entries hit, my initial reaction was the same as pretty much everyone's: WTF is going on with Stanford's Football program? First a 4-8 season, now all these transfers? Surely there must be something rotten going on.

But after taking in some wider perspective and looking at the roster, it dawned on me that more likely than not Shaw has nudged some guys out of the program, or at least prepared them to be nudged out, to make room for the 2020 Frosh signing class, after he knows they will have graduated.

Everyone has sort of lamented Stanford's less than aggressive recruiting, but stepping back a bit, bringing in a signing class so large when there were many possible 5th year Seniors betrays a different kind of aggressiveness. Namely, getting guys out of the program who may or may not have been really valuable contributors, to make room for players with more upside potential.

Perhaps, but at this point we've only 18 commitments (per Rivals). Of the top 40 classes they list, only Texas, TCU and ASU have fewer commitments. . . .

RE: A forest through trees moment - BobK - 12-23-2019

we have 20 commits, not 18 including McKee

Glad ole Outsider has awaken. LOL

We expect two more commits although one will be going on a mission.

RE: A forest through trees moment - OutsiderFan - 12-23-2019

If Adebo leaves, there is room for two to return from portal.

The point here is sure it would be nice to have Hattis and Hamilton back, but who would you rather have? Them, or all the True Frosh OL that can come in now?

There isn't anyone in the portal beyond Williams and Swann that I'm dying to have back. If scholarship limits weren't an issue, I'd want Costello for another year, but at the same time, Mills needs to be given a shot.

Just looking at the scholarship realities it seems the odds of Swann and Williams returning are pretty good.

RE: A forest through trees moment - donkey687 - 12-23-2019

(12-23-2019, 04:07 PM)winflop Wrote:
(12-23-2019, 03:59 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: When the deluge of Stanford portal entries hit, my initial reaction was the same as pretty much everyone's: WTF is going on with Stanford's Football program? First a 4-8 season, now all these transfers? Surely there must be something rotten going on.

But after taking in some wider perspective and looking at the roster, it dawned on me that more likely than not Shaw has nudged some guys out of the program, or at least prepared them to be nudged out, to make room for the 2020 Frosh signing class, after he knows they will have graduated.

Everyone has sort of lamented Stanford's less than aggressive recruiting, but stepping back a bit, bringing in a signing class so large when there were many possible 5th year Seniors betrays a different kind of aggressiveness. Namely, getting guys out of the program who may or may not have been really valuable contributors, to make room for players with more upside potential.

This totally makes sense for about half of the guys in the portal who weren't going to get PT next year. But there's a half-dozen guys who were either going to start for sure (Swann, Williams, Hamilton) or be backups at worst (Pryts, Hattis, Powell, Eboh, Costello). It's this latter group that concerns me because if they were happy with the program I don't think this many would be in the portal.

Something is broken is Shaw's house. The questions are whether a) he realizes it, and b) what if anything he does about it.

I agree that this is concerning. I will reserve judgment until the final decisions on whether players are going to transfer or not are made, but let's not try and sugar coat this. This is highly unusual and indicative that there is some kind of leadership issue. It is very rare for a starter to transfer much alone 6 starters. We can downplay 4 of the starters as feeling threatened in their starting roles, but come on, 6 of those guys started at least half of our games this year and justifying that there is a chance that they will be beat out next year is trying to put lipstick on a pig.

RE: A forest through trees moment - cardcrimson - 12-23-2019

ESPN shows 20
247 shows 19
Rivals shows 18

18 or 20, still not a large class compared to the competition.

RE: A forest through trees moment - OutsiderFan - 12-23-2019

(12-23-2019, 04:24 PM)donkey687 Wrote:
(12-23-2019, 04:07 PM)winflop Wrote:
(12-23-2019, 03:59 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: When the deluge of Stanford portal entries hit, my initial reaction was the same as pretty much everyone's: WTF is going on with Stanford's Football program? First a 4-8 season, now all these transfers? Surely there must be something rotten going on.

But after taking in some wider perspective and looking at the roster, it dawned on me that more likely than not Shaw has nudged some guys out of the program, or at least prepared them to be nudged out, to make room for the 2020 Frosh signing class, after he knows they will have graduated.

Everyone has sort of lamented Stanford's less than aggressive recruiting, but stepping back a bit, bringing in a signing class so large when there were many possible 5th year Seniors betrays a different kind of aggressiveness. Namely, getting guys out of the program who may or may not have been really valuable contributors, to make room for players with more upside potential.

This totally makes sense for about half of the guys in the portal who weren't going to get PT next year. But there's a half-dozen guys who were either going to start for sure (Swann, Williams, Hamilton) or be backups at worst (Pryts, Hattis, Powell, Eboh, Costello). It's this latter group that concerns me because if they were happy with the program I don't think this many would be in the portal.

Something is broken is Shaw's house. The questions are whether a) he realizes it, and b) what if anything he does about it.

I agree that this is concerning. I will reserve judgment until the final decisions on whether players are going to transfer or not are made, but let's not try and sugar coat this. This is highly unusual and indicative that there is some kind of leadership issue. It is very rare for a starter to transfer much alone 6 starters. We can downplay 4 of the starters as feeling threatened in their starting roles, but come on, 6 of those guys started at least half of our games this year and justifying that there is a chance that they will be beat out next year is trying to put lipstick on a pig.

Shaw recruited the class a long time before the guys went into the portal.

RE: A forest through trees moment - BostonCard - 12-23-2019

This has already been talked about a fair bit, and I would refer you to Samuel's excellent thread on fifth year decisions, here.

The fact that we have a largish class this year is a good thing, and certainly one of the benefits is that it would allow us to encourage some non-contributors to move on. From that perspective, you are correct. The issue, though, is not as you framed it. It is not whether we would rather have Hattis and Hamilton or two more freshmen OL, but rather if we would rather have Hattis and Hamilton come back or Butler and Parson. Here are the 10 players currently in the portal:
Swann, Williams, Costello, Hattis, Hamilton, Pryts, Stewart, Richardson, Eboh, Peek, Powell (confirmed transfer)
plus Parkinson entering the NFL portal

And here are some players who are not in the portal, but I would trade:
Maddox, Speights, Butler, Parsons (Harrington is returning, but I would rather have Parkinson back).

So, if it were up to me, and taking note of several posters here noting that we will likely have a medical retirement and an a late signing period addition to the class, we only need 9 players to transfer out (10 if somehow Parkinson changed his mind). This would be my list:

Stewart, Richardson, Peek, Powell, Maddox, Speights, Butler, Parsons, Harrington (if Parkinson came back). The last one would be harder, because it involves a contributor, but probably Eboh, since needing a 10th would imply Adebo was coming back.

BC

RE: A forest through trees moment - OL84 - 12-23-2019

(12-23-2019, 04:44 PM)BostonCard Wrote: This has already been talked about a fair bit, and I would refer you to Samuel's excellent thread on fifth year decisions, here.

The fact that we have a largish class this year is a good thing, and certainly one of the benefits is that it would allow us to encourage some non-contributors to move on. From that perspective, you are correct. The issue, though, is not as you framed it. It is not whether we would rather have Hattis and Hamilton or two more freshmen OL, but rather if we would rather have Hattis and Hamilton come back or Butler and Parson. Here are the 10 players currently in the portal:
Swann, Williams, Costello, Hattis, Hamilton, Pryts, Stewart, Richardson, Eboh, Peek, Powell (confirmed transfer)
plus Parkinson entering the NFL portal

And here are some players who are not in the portal, but I would trade:
Maddox, Speights, Butler, Parsons (Harrington is returning, but I would rather have Parkinson back).

So, if it were up to me, and taking note of several posters here noting that we will likely have a medical retirement and an a late signing period addition to the class, we only need 9 players to transfer out (10 if somehow Parkinson changed his mind). This would be my list:

Stewart, Richardson, Peek, Powell, Maddox, Speights, Butler, Parsons, Harrington (if Parkinson came back). The last one would be harder, because it involves a contributor, but probably Eboh, since needing a 10th would imply Adebo was coming back.

BC

Good summary, BC

RE: A forest through trees moment - BobK - 12-23-2019

Done may remember how we thought Sal would play football

https://gostanford.com/sports/track-and-field/roster/sal-spina/15511

He’s no longer on the track team. Maybe now playing football ? Or not?

RE: A forest through trees moment - Nan3cy - 12-23-2019

I was talking to a faculty friend the other day and he said guys who are graduating are nuts if they don’t do whatever they need to for a graduate transfer (which he insists is a misnomer — he says it isn’t a transfer if the guys are graduating), since admission to a Stanford graduate program is not guaranteed, in fact far from it.

RE: A forest through trees moment - Farm93 - 12-23-2019

(12-23-2019, 04:26 PM)cardcrimson Wrote: ESPN shows 20
247 shows 19
Rivals shows 18

18 or 20, still not a large class compared to the competition.

The competition all enjoy (suffer) from massive attrition from LOI day until the scheduled graduation year.
They lose commits that don't actually graduate from HS. They lose 1st year players that become academically ineligible, drop out of school, commit felonies, transfer after a year for playing time, etc. They lose players after 3 years willing to roll the dice at becoming 6th or 7th round pick.

Many SEC schools routinely sign 25, or more, players each year. 25*4 = 100, so attrition is a given in their world. And if they make a mistake and have too many commits, they can encourage some of the players to greyshirt or attend a nearby community college for a year. Those are not options for Stanford.

Historically, Stanford was more of a 17*5 = 85 type of program with many players redshirting. That allowed the players to be more mature when they were on the field. It allowed the freshman time to adjust to academic life at Stanford. It also reduced the number of players the staff need to convince to come to Stanford from a very shallow recruiting pool.

By Stanford standards, any class at or above 20 is a big class. Competition commit numbers are not relevant, historically 20 is a big group for Stanford.

Those recruiting realities are part of the reason Stanford doesn't ever finish in the top 10. To get into the top 10 you need to land 23-28 recruits. Stanford's recruiting pool likely isn't big enough, and to land that many means something was very, very wrong with earlier recruiting and/or retention.

This class, like most classes in Shaw's tenure, are far above average by Stanford Football standards.

Happy to have all of them and look forward to them loving their time at Stanford University.

Wring it dry!

RE: A forest through trees moment - BostonCard - 12-23-2019

(12-23-2019, 05:34 PM)Nan3cy Wrote: I was talking to a faculty friend the other day and he said guys who are graduating are nuts if they don’t do whatever they need to for a graduate transfer (which he insists is a misnomer — he says it isn’t a transfer if the guys are graduating), since admission to a Stanford graduate program is not guaranteed, in fact far from it.

That is true, but they don't have to go to grad school for the fall quarter of their fifth year. They can simply delay graduation until after the fall. The question then becomes whether a player wants a graduate degree or wants to get on with a job as soon as they are done playing football.

BC

RE: A forest through trees moment - Goose - 12-23-2019

(12-23-2019, 05:54 PM)BostonCard Wrote:
(12-23-2019, 05:34 PM)Nan3cy Wrote: I was talking to a faculty friend the other day and he said guys who are graduating are nuts if they don’t do whatever they need to for a graduate transfer (which he insists is a misnomer — he says it isn’t a transfer if the guys are graduating), since admission to a Stanford graduate program is not guaranteed, in fact far from it.

That is true, but they don't have to go to grad school for the fall quarter of their fifth year. They can simply delay graduation until after the fall. The question then becomes whether a player wants a graduate degree or wants to get on with a job as soon as they are done playing football.

BC

Not quite that simple. The interaction between getting your tuition paid by playing football and getting a graduate degree can be very significant. Just marking time for a quarter so you can play another season of football at Stanford makes little sense if you intend to go to graduate school elsewhere. If you can get a year of free education by playing, it would be stupid not to check out your options. OTOH, if you are going off to a job, postponing doing so makes sense only if you really, really want another year of football. I imagine a few guys do, do, but in my experience, once people are ready to go, they go. Those guys don't go into the portal, they just retire. It may be that some of the players in the portal are doing it on speculation, and will quit football if nothing real good shows up.

RE: A forest through trees moment - DenverCard - 12-23-2019

I had the impression that in years past, it was very difficult to be on the football team and graduate in four years. Players took a slightly reduced academic load (say 13 credit hours per quarter, rather than the 15 necessary to graduate on time, at least per the numbers that applied when I was at Stanford). This kept them eligible, but it meant that they did not attain 180 credit hours until their 5th year.

It seems to me that more recently, players come to Stanford with plenty of AP credits and/or they attend school in the summer, both of which I don't think were common, say, 20 years ago. (By the time he graduated HS two years ago, my nephew racked up 80 AP credits in high school, which, back in the day, would be worth almost two years of study in college.) As as result of these other ways to get to 180 credit hours, which players are likely to reach well before the end of their 4th year, there is no good reason to stay into a fifth year.

RE: A forest through trees moment - BostonCard - 12-23-2019

Players enroll in summer school, and virtually all are on track to graduate in four years, if they want to.

Goose has some good points in his thread. A player contemplating a fifth year who has all the credits he needs to graduate and is not an NFL prospect has three basic choices. They can retire from football and get a job. They can apply to graduate school, which may mean "transferring" (as others have noted, it is not really a transfer if you graduate), or they can delay graduation. While you are right that a player who is ready to move on will move on, I think you underestimate how much players enjoy competing. For many, this would be their last chance to play competitive football.

BC

RE: A forest through trees moment - 81alum - 12-23-2019

(12-23-2019, 05:54 PM)BostonCard Wrote: they don't have to go to grad school for the fall quarter of their fifth year. They can simply delay graduation until after the fall. The question then becomes whether a player wants a graduate degree or wants to get on with a job as soon as they are done playing football.

Do we know this to be true? Changing the expected date of graduation usually has to be approved by an academic advisor. At some universities it would not be approved as a routine matter--it is sometimes seen as giving an educational slot away that could better be used on the freshman class. But I admit I don't know Stanford's policy...

RE: A forest through trees moment - Goose - 12-23-2019

(12-23-2019, 06:18 PM)BostonCard Wrote: While you are right that a player who is ready to move on will move on, I think you underestimate how much players enjoy competing. For many, this would be their last chance to play competitive football.

BC

This is an interesting psychological situation. When I was at Stanford, guys played a year as freshmen on the freshman football team, and then played three years of "varsity" football. I knew two football players fairly well and several others slightly. The last season was really a bittersweet experience. Unlike the guys who redshirt today, they knew exactly when they were "done", like it or not. Playing football was important to them, but they knew it was going to stop, and there was no way out of it. Playing football is also difficult, painful, time-consuming, and often frustrating. Most guys seemed to deal with it by a form of denial, where they just refused to think about the end until it came. Then, they just kind of steeled themselves to the fact that they were done and got on with life. The didn't talk about how hard it was to stop playing. They only wanted to talk about football with other guys from the team, and even then they mostly talked about the experience together, not the "game of football".

I don't know what players do today, but I would imagine when Senior year arrives, they have to contemplate not playing. It could happen to them involuntarily, i.e not asked back, so you can't ignore it. Many of your friends have exhausted their eligibility and will be gone. Others will have chosen to retire. Some are in the portal and very well may be gone. Your team isn't any more, and yet, you possibly can still continue. So, what do you do? Do you endure another year of pain, effort, etc, just to keep playing? You have now faced the end. Do you want to do that twice, or is it better to accept the inevitable now and call it a career? You loved what you have done, yet it can't be the same.

I can see this being a difficult choice. I can see real reasons to finish the last year playing elsewhere. It is a new team that you fully join. I can see calling it a career and getting away at the same time your class does (putting away the thing of a child). Hanging on makes sense to me only if there are specific goals you think you can still reach, or if you are playing to pay for school. In those cases, you know why you are there and what you need to do. Otherwise, I think the joy of the game becomes painful when "everything has changed" and they know it's ending. Maybe not though, YMMV.

RE: A forest through trees moment - SamuelMcF - 12-23-2019

(12-23-2019, 06:36 PM)81alum Wrote:
(12-23-2019, 05:54 PM)BostonCard Wrote: they don't have to go to grad school for the fall quarter of their fifth year. They can simply delay graduation until after the fall. The question then becomes whether a player wants a graduate degree or wants to get on with a job as soon as they are done playing football.
Do we know this to be true? Changing the expected date of graduation usually has to be approved by an academic advisor. At some universities it would not be approved as a routine matter--it is sometimes seen as giving an educational slot away that could better be used on the freshman class. But I admit I don't know Stanford's policy...

'16 grad here with multiple football friends who took a 5th year without grad school. Can confirm this is true. They simply delayed taking a required major class until 5th year fall.